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Melbourne Cup 2021 - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Melbourne Cup 2021  (Read 1692 times)

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Offline timw

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O.P. « 2021-Jun-05, 03:23 PM »
Joseph O'Brien trained Baron Samedi has just won the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes on turf over 2 miles (first start in the US).  Career record was 5 unplaced runs until gelded and has since has won all 7 starts. Next target Melbourne Cup ?

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Aug-20, 08:09 PM Reply #1 »
I am interested to see how the next few weeks will turn out in Sydney and Melbourne with the covid issues and who will be riding the horses running in the staying races in Melbourne for the feature races. 

I like some of the Aussie horses but hard to know who to back if the o/s runners do come down under.






Online PoisonPen7

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« 2021-Aug-20, 11:09 PM Reply #2 »
The OS horses need not turn up.

Incentivise will give them a thrashing.

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Aug-21, 09:40 AM Reply #3 »
Not so sure PP, I think he is a very good horse and not sure how he rates when he hits the Melbourne Cups trail.

Incentivise will have a new trainer and jockey plus new surroundings. He will be racing the Melbourne way of racing. He will be facing better opposition than what he faced in Brisbane. When he races in the Cups, the field sizes will be the largest he will have raced and not sure if he will get luck in running especially if he draws wide and jockeys kick up.

But saying all that I do like him but I will be waiting to see his first few runs. It will be nice to see an Australian horse win.

Online Shogun Lodge

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« 2021-Aug-21, 08:22 PM Reply #4 »
I have confidently backed Cepheus at 100 to 1.

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Aug-22, 12:15 PM Reply #5 »
I went in today to put a few $(literally) on a few horses including Incentivise etc to win Caulfield/ Melbourne Cup. What I donít understand and this has been going on for decades is the reduced odds of a horse to win both cups. It is almost 30-40% reduction in total odds for a single horse to win both cups.

If I backed horse A into A, B, C and D to win the second leg, I get lower price for A but not higher price for B,C and D if A wins. Considering Etheral and Doiremus were our last 2 dual cup winners in the last 30 years, it is a rort.

Where is Peter Mair to chase it up for us.   :lol:

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2021-Aug-22, 05:29 PM Reply #6 »
I went in today to put a few $(literally) on a few horses including Incentivise etc to win Caulfield/ Melbourne Cup. What I donít understand and this has been going on for decades is the reduced odds of a horse to win both cups. It is almost 30-40% reduction in total odds for a single horse to win both cups.

If I backed horse A into A, B, C and D to win the second leg, I get lower price for A but not higher price for B,C and D if A wins. Considering Etheral and Doiremus were our last 2 dual cup winners in the last 30 years, it is a rort.

Where is Peter Mair to chase it up for us.   :lol:

Yes we have been through this in detail a few times.

It is a rip off of the highest order.

The bookies argue "Ųh but horse A would be reduced odds for the Melbourne Cup if it wins the Caulfield Cup".

But the bit they are leaving out are all the bets taken for horse B to win both Cups at a reduced percentage, horse C to win both Cups at a reduced percentage, etc.

To be honest I don't know why the marketing department of one of the big players don't just give the correct odds and advertise as such. Surely that sort of promotion wouldn't cost any more than "pay down to 5th place" and "Odds Boost" and all those other promos.  :what:

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Aug-22, 09:22 PM Reply #7 »
The plot thickens with Boss struggling to goto Victoria with the Covid rules. I do wonder if they will go with Allen or Williams.

There is also talk of Spanish Mission coming down for the Cup after his great run this week against Stradivarius.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/could-queensland-hoop-get-the-firstup-job-on-incentivise-in-spring-carnival-campaign-20210821

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Aug-22, 09:33 PM Reply #8 »
I went in today to put a few $(literally) on a few horses including Incentivise etc to win Caulfield/ Melbourne Cup. What I donít understand and this has been going on for decades is the reduced odds of a horse to win both cups. It is almost 30-40% reduction in total odds for a single horse to win both cups.

If I backed horse A into A, B, C and D to win the second leg, I get lower price for A but not higher price for B,C and D if A wins. Considering Etheral and Doiremus were our last 2 dual cup winners in the last 30 years, it is a rort.

Where is Peter Mair to chase it up for us.   :lol:

It's hard to listen to someone with a straight face trying to justify this rort. Has been like that since time dot and the excuse always trotted out is is that the odds of horse A would be reduced after he won the first leg ...... I've always counted that a) I placed the bet before either race was run & b) you don't extend my odds in the second leg of horse B after horse A won the first leg  :shrug:

I simply don't take them.

Online JWesleyHarding

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« 2021-Aug-22, 09:56 PM Reply #9 »
Has been like that since time dot

Not quite that far back.
Even Stevens i think.

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Aug-26, 04:03 PM Reply #10 »
Interesting news with Boss ruled out of the spring carnival which means that new jockey for Incentivise plus Sydney jockeys maybe no chance for majority of the Victorian spring carnival if they canít get past quarantine.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/glen-boss-to-leave-darwin-quarantine-early-and-to-return-home-to-sydney-20210826

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Aug-26, 08:04 PM Reply #11 »
Not quite that far back.
Even Stevens i think.

Correct :thumbsup:

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Sep-11, 09:00 AM Reply #12 »
Interesting day today to see how Incentivise goes today. The odds may get better for some runners if he does well today especially the European runners.

Explosive Jack is an interesting runner too today. Had a long campaign with all his derby wins. Good horse.

I am interested to see how Warning goes today. Had a soft spot ever since I was on him in the Derby.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-11, 09:08 AM Reply #13 »
Iíve had a dabble on Warning as well. Sun on his back from a Brissy prep will help

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-11, 10:40 AM Reply #14 »
I see the hoof filler has come off Wily but not with my money, he's promised a lot but failed to live up to it.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-11, 11:32 AM Reply #15 »
I know what you mean but I did say a dabble  :lol:

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Sep-17, 12:01 PM Reply #16 »
Very interesting day tomorrow in Sydney and Melbourne.

Realm of Flowers, Amade, Vow and Declare are some of the more notable potential MC runners at Caulfield. 

I am intrigued to see if they will target the MC for Very Elegant after the Cox Plate. Damn fine odds but I think one of the owners also has a share in Incentivise so they might be kept apart.

Offline Wenona

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« 2021-Oct-13, 07:37 PM Reply #17 »
Hadn't really taken much notice of Duais before today. Went back and watched a few of her previous runs. Can't really put my finder on it but there's something about her I really like. Took $40 and $12.50 the place for the big one, hopefully she does well and pulls up OK in the Caulfield Cup this Saturday.

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Oct-13, 10:54 PM Reply #18 »
I was on through Brissy and have been watching with interest until today, took $10 to beat the shortie (she blew further). Was a good ride by Dee to bring her with a perfectly timed run.

If you just looked at the form guide you'd be wondering WTF but it was a slaughter job by Bowman 2nd up, took off ridiculously early, burning her up and rightly dropped out. What got me was the ease of how she moved into that, hence I took a stab today.

I've never been good at futures  :shy: but in a year with little to no Euros that looks a solid bet Wenona.

« Last Edit: 2021-Oct-13, 10:55 PM by Gintara »

Offline Wenona

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« 2021-Oct-14, 09:57 AM Reply #19 »
Yeah, I think you're right .. the way she can quickly put herself into the race is part of it.

Online Jeunes

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« 2021-Oct-16, 08:32 PM Reply #20 »
After todayís CC and looking at the order of entry, you do have to wonder if some of the well beaten brigade will continue to the cup or look at something a bit easier. 22nd of October is the next declaration date.

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-order-of-entry
« Last Edit: 2021-Oct-16, 08:34 PM by Jeunes »

Online fours

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« 7 hours ago Reply #21 »
The first four...

Incentivise Spanish Mission Persan Very Elegant

Fours
« Last Edit: 6 hours ago by fours »

Online wily ole dog

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« 6 hours ago Reply #22 »
I canít get warm about this Spanish Mission thing.
Twilight payment to run the placing behind the new champ

Online Jeunes

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« 6 hours ago Reply #23 »
What the jockeys said after the CC. Might be a good pointer for the placings behind Incentivise in the MC.  :lol:

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/what-the-jockeys-said-after-the-2021-caulfield-cup


Online Jeunes

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« 8 minutes ago Reply #24 »
Without Incentivise, it will be one of the most open MC in history. A few more horses have fallen out of the Cup including Realm of Flowers.

Waller will have a few horses but the most interesting will be Very Elegant if he chooses to run her in it.



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