Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: jfc on 2019-Oct-31, 04:35 PM

Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Oct-31, 04:35 PM
CSV To HTML using codebeautify.org
2019 2018 19 / 18
355,630.77 374,927.45 0.9485 Memsie
368,916.55 424,059.63 0.8700 Makybe Diva
318,889.85 388,831.08 0.8201 Rupert Clarke
221,988.82 222,261.88 0.9988 A.J.Moir
435,131.14 230,000.00 1.8919 Turnbull
280,070.60 293,227.67 0.9551 Underwood
351,247.75 487,285.72 0.7208 Thousand Guineas
399,322.95 460,175.98 0.8678 Ladbrokes
460,462.08 467,772.51 0.9844 Toorak
542,665.19 470,894.35 1.1524 Caulfield Guineas
1,351,196.44 1,884,212.31 0.7171 Caulfield Cup
238,635.33 423,077.51 0.5640 Manikato
1,248,557.54 679,543.40 1.8373 Cox
656,972.00 845,338.30 0.7772 Empire Rose
692,909.00 638,715.25 1.0848 Coolmore
1,114,060.00 1,387,438.21 0.8030 Victoria Derby
801,552.00 954,133.45 0.8401 Kennedy Cantala
11,444,600.00 14,428,432.83 0.7932 Melbourne Cup
798,920.00 1,018,338.87 0.7845 Oaks
540,522.00 789,418.58 0.6847 Darley Sprint
934,935.00 791,012.79 1.1819 Mackinnon
23,557,185.01 27,659,097.77 0.8517 Total
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Oct-31, 05:55 PM
Obviously not having Winx running has it's advantages.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Oct-31, 09:26 PM
In an amazing technological breakthrough tabWA is actually able to store results for later than a year, thus remedying TABCORP's failure!

https://www.tabtouch.com.au/racing/2018-10-06/mr/5
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-01, 02:04 PM
My bet is Saturday will not show improvement in the figures.

Meanwhile here are some pessimistic bookmakers.

Plus comments from 56 morons.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-bookies-tears-runneth-over-you-bet-they-do/news-story/db3f273767bcd769775a9620a800216e
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-02, 03:59 PM
After today a total drop of 7+%.

Probably nearer to 10% if the 2 Winx races were ignored.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-03, 02:02 AM
Saturday 3rd November 2018 (Derby Day)

NSW TAB Win Pools total NSW Punters on Rosehill races - $1,457,000 (approx)

Saturday 2nd November 2019 (Derby Day)

NSW TAB Win Pools total NSW Punters on Rosehill races - $2,501,000 (approx)

Increase 71.6%
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-05, 02:10 PM
$11.444,600.00 =2019
$14,428,432.830 =2018

20.68% downturn for Melbourne Cup!

Houston......
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: lovinthepunt on 2019-Nov-05, 02:32 PM
Just backed the winner on the cup. Was feeling pretty good until I saw the odds I received with Betfair: $8.13 SP That is BS.

I've had an account with them for 10 years but will never ever bet with them again.

Melbourne Cup Betfair SP Vow and Declare $8.13!!!!

You then pay tax on your winnings.

Where the better bettors bet?
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-05, 02:42 PM
Something very fishy with the BSP Odds.

123.6% Market!
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-05, 03:10 PM
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Nov-05, 03:17 PM
Something very fishy with the BSP Odds.

123.6% Market!

Indeed, some are really light including the winner at $8.13

Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Nov-05, 05:49 PM
jfc Do you think the BSP has been subjected to some sort of manipulation?
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-05, 06:31 PM
Yes.

Best if I voluntarily gag myself for a while.

https://twitter.com/search?q=bsp%20betfair&src=typd
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: lovinthepunt on 2019-Nov-05, 07:37 PM
Absolutely.

Theory 1 : Criminal activity perhaps by way of skimming. Not sure how that would operate but nothing would surprise me.

Theory 2: Layers are removing their prices 10 seconds before the jump leaving SP backers holding a pile of excrement.

Either way, today left such a bitter taste in my mouth that I have removed my winnings and cashed out my other markets and will never ever bet with them again. I have had an account with them for approximately 10 years and turned over about 90K in my first 2 years. Admittedly,once they removed multis from their site I have only bet a fraction of what I did in the first 2 years but still.

I rang up customer service( such as it is. I could barely hear the rep for the raucous laughter in the background and what seemed like a party) and was told they would escalate my complaint. I'm mildly curious as to their explanation but it won't change anything.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Nov-06, 11:23 AM


The process of determining the SP takes place in the short period of time between the race being suspended and the race going in-play. During that period nobody at Betfair has any influence on how the price is determined. No one at Betfair has access to any privileged information on SP markets. Detailed workings can be viewed here.

We also encourage customers using BSP to set odds limits to avoid this situation in the future as detailed here.

We are sorry to hear that yesterday's BSP had an adverse impact on your betting, but trust that your future experiences on the exchange are more likely to be positive as the product provides exceptional value to all users over longer term (refer to link for BSP info)
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-07, 01:26 AM
I didn't write the figure down, but NSW punters bet in excess of $11 million on the 2018 Cup into the TAB win pool.

In 2019 the figure has failed to make $10 million - $9,929,166.20

In the 2018 Oaks won by Arista, these were the NSW TAB pools

Win $422,954.00
Place $180,080.50
Quinella $108,346.10
Exacta $28,588.20
Duet $13,027.20
Trifecta $326,115.78
First Four $227,913.66

We'll check and see how they go tomorrow in comparison.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: colonus4 on 2019-Nov-07, 06:44 AM
Checking my incomplete records, I found the following Victorian TAB win tote pools on the Melbourne Cup
2007  $20,417,063
2008  $22,126,912
2010  $23,079,089
2014  $18,374,120
2015  $17,557,100
2019  $11,444,586

Total turnover and  total commission details on the 10 races on those days were
            Turnover             Commission          % of Turnover
2007  $91,771,531         $14,988,252                   16.33
2008  $95,844,967         $15,652,223                   16.33
2010  $99,803,779         $16,492,395                   16.52
2014  $88,563,797         $15,182,130                   17.14
2015  $85,230,954         $14,676,647                   17.22
2019  $65,298,061         $11,604,435                   17.77

Back in 2008, TAB executives were emphatic in their contention that punters would not be worse off when the 16% overall maximum commission rate was removed. Mind you, any execs who launch "Odds and Evens" after the spectacular failure of the almost-identical Spinner bet years ago probably failed afternoon nap at Kindergarten.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Nov-07, 10:33 AM
Checking my incomplete records, I found the following Victorian TAB win tote pools on the Melbourne Cup
2007  $20,417,063
2008  $22,126,912
2010  $23,079,089
2014  $18,374,120
2015  $17,557,100
2019  $11,444,586

Total turnover and  total commission details on the 10 races on those days were
            Turnover             Commission          % of Turnover
2007  $91,771,531         $14,988,252                   16.33
2008  $95,844,967         $15,652,223                   16.33
2010  $99,803,779         $16,492,395                   16.52
2014  $88,563,797         $15,182,130                   17.14
2015  $85,230,954         $14,676,647                   17.22
2019  $65,298,061         $11,604,435                   17.77

Back in 2008, TAB executives were emphatic in their contention that punters would not be worse off when the 16% overall maximum commission rate was removed. Mind you, any execs who launch "Odds and Evens" after the spectacular failure of the almost-identical Spinner bet years ago probably failed afternoon nap at Kindergarten.

  :lol:

There are a series of radio ads for TAB at the moment with Darren Flindell doing the voice over.

"TAB. We're those people".

The scripts are really weird. Cannot possibly see how they promote anything that is going to add to TABCorp's bottom line.

They need me in there running their marketing. I'm a great believer in the old Advertising idiom of "sex sells everything"   :lol:
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: arthur on 2019-Nov-07, 10:42 AM
So do 'Sportsbet' . .

But . .
 The lady in the swimming pool doesn't spin my wheels, in the 'sexy' or the 'smart' departments
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-07, 10:50 AM
Excellent, awesome and inspiring material, Colonus.

You are not an easy act to follow.

CSV To HTML using codebeautify.org
Melbourne Cup Win Place Trifecta
2019 11,444,585.50 7,701,850.58 11,284,371.20
2018 14,428,432.83 9,421,957.88 12,022,131.14
2017 15,260,799.71 10,077,833.69 12,235,699.58
2016 17,634,388.04 11,595,361.99 13,373,264.39
2015 17,557,100.00
2014 18,374,120.27 12,564,294.92 14,076,349.65
2013 18,404,663.11 12,924,528.14 15,140,381.47
2012 19,824,612.35 13,685,030.10 16,134,063.56
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: napes on 2019-Nov-07, 10:58 AM
So do 'Sportsbet' . .

But . .
 The lady in the swimming pool doesn't spin my wheels, in the 'sexy' or the 'smart' departments

You need to get your cataracts checked! She is a stunner  :thumbsup:
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: arthur on 2019-Nov-07, 02:32 PM
You need to get your cataracts checked! She is a stunner  :thumbsup:

The other end of the building needs maintenance as well . . but I am sticking to my opinion
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-07, 05:04 PM
22% drop on The Oaks!

Seems to be a bit of a trend forming.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2019-Nov-07, 07:12 PM
Colonus , all those TAB executives, who suggested punters would be no worse off when the overall commission rate of 16% was removed back in 2008 , have since retired on nice retirement packages and are probably shamefully basking somewhere in the sun on some Caribbean island
Most of the successful tote overs punters of that era have given the game away and those plunging turnover figures on Cup Week are no doubt more reflective of overall TAB turnover.
How naive were those since retired TAB executives ,who believed all punters were mugs and were there for the taking , leaving the current crop of TAB executives to pick up the pieces.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-08, 07:58 PM
So is the contention that the big boys have dropped off or is it the general public
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2019-Nov-09, 11:51 AM
All of the above.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-09, 01:54 PM
$540,522.00 versus $798,418.58 for Darley Sprint.

32% drop!

Figures getting worse.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-09, 04:06 PM
18% boost in the McKinnon not enough to impact the bleak total.

14.83% down overall for Spring.
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-09, 05:32 PM
Once the excuse for shrinking Tote figures was migration over to Fixed.

But that has now done its dash.

For the first time the latest Tabcorp numbers saw both the Tote and Fixed fail.

Meanwhile Flutter (Sportsbet's parent) saw Australian revenue rise!

The Trifecta figures (shown above) also hold bad news.

The Totes had a monopoly on them, so there was nowhere else to migrate to. But they have also been taking a severe hit.

We don;t know how well the Trifecta Best Tote Corporate has been embraced but it's hard to see how that won't harm Totes further.


 
Title: Melbourne Group 1 Win Tote Comparison
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-09, 05:33 PM
All of the above.

But only one matters