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Methodologies or Methods Of Selection - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Methodologies or Methods Of Selection  (Read 1352 times)

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Offline Stormy

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-04, 04:44 PM »
As QUOTED in a post
People enjoy having discussions about varying methodologies that can be used to pick winners.
Methodologies around rating and pricing races has generated some particularly interesting discussion in the past.

Please Wenona share with us your methods. ( I am all eyes ) and any other punter that have methods of selection
Cheers. 8-)

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 06:30 PM Reply #1 »
I may as well start the thread,
I was reading Wenona's open post in the thread Lest We Forget.

He quotes, As almost every system I've seen in this forum ends up selecting the fav (or near enough) and everyone is still persisting with them.
In my case, it's generated.

Food for thought !

Systems contain hundreds of rules such as, Do not consider any horse which ran worse than sixth prior to its last start third, unless it has had only five runs or less since coming from a spell of 49 days or more or ran a place on a city course at its second last start or starting price at last run, when fourth or worse, must be not than 16/1, except when the starting price now is 7/2 or less.
It can then be any price at all last start. If 7/1 to 16/1 last start, price now must be 6/1 or less,. If 6/1 or less last start the odds now must be shorter than last start.
This amazing rule assumes you know the starting price in advance.
If we all knew the horses starting price in advance, there would be no need to worry about backing winners. We would anticipate every betting plunge - and be very wealthy.
  :biggrin:

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 06:38 PM Reply #2 »
Antitab# also quoted

I would kindly suggest it would greatly assist you to quiz Wenona and try to pick his brain rather than vice versa.

Antitab, your right on the mark. When ever yourself and Wenona are ready and  would like to share and produce some selections,ratings or methods with the knowledge that you have, I am willing to learn.

So don't hold back, give us all the insight you guys have in the above mentioned.

Great stuff  :thumbsup: 8-)  emthup

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:16 PM Reply #3 »
Wenona,

Can you help me out with question please !

I need to know how to compare horse against horse in strength and class in past races, and then I want to compare
that horse against the other horses in up and coming races so I can see if the horse is stronger or weaker in the current contested company.

Cheers  8-)

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:23 PM Reply #4 »
Wenona,
just one more thing, when finding the relative weight of a horse do you use that as an advantage or disadvantage,
and how do you apply that to future ratings, selections, or systems and how do you make adjustments when there is an apprentice allowance.
Or do you use direct weight lines ?
 8-) :thumbsup:
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-04, 07:27 PM by Stormy »

Offline arakaan

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:28 PM Reply #5 »
my methods are simple.

find the winners and back em.
find the losers and lay em.

it's after all that matters in the end.


Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:40 PM Reply #6 »
To dam right arakaan,
I find the winners and I back them.

Cheers for your input and method ( Very Simple and Good)
 8-) :thumbsup:

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:44 PM Reply #7 »
What about backing the first jockey you see when you walk onto the course?

That's a tried and tested method isn't it?

Offline MagiC~*

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:46 PM Reply #8 »
Goes for horses as well JWH,

Only problem I had with that one was I always saw our own horses first ... which didn't really help  :/

Offline Lucky

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:58 PM Reply #9 »
Stormy

You seem very in experienced or new to the racing caper- i can give you the starting prices of most horses to the dollar in SYdney and Provincial markest and i know half a dozen other people who can do the same- - however this doesn't lead to you be a constant winner as you state

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Jan-04, 07:59 PM Reply #10 »
And as Graters would detest, Ian only seems to mention it after the race.

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 08:02 PM Reply #11 »
Stormy

You seem very in experienced or new to the racing caper- i can give you the starting prices of most horses to the dollar in SYdney and Provincial markest and i know half a dozen other people who can do the same- - however this doesn't lead to you be a constant winner as you state

Where did I say consistant winner !

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 08:03 PM Reply #12 »
I said I find winners for myself, and I share what I find.
  :biggrin:

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 08:05 PM Reply #13 »
Stormy

You seem very in experienced or new to the racing caper- i can give you the starting prices of most horses to the dollar in SYdney and Provincial markest and i know half a dozen other people who can do the same- - however this doesn't lead to you be a constant winner as you state

That would be great if you could. Great Stuff 8-)

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 08:08 PM Reply #14 »
Yes Lucky I am,
So I need all the help I can get.
So how can you help, I know you can give the starting prices.
Then What ?

Cheers 8-)
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-04, 08:10 PM by Stormy »

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-04, 08:13 PM Reply #15 »
Hey Lucky,
How long have you been in the racing caper as you put it ?
I don't want to know who you know, I want to know, what you know.
seeing that i am very in experienced

Cheers 8-)
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-04, 08:17 PM by Stormy »

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Jan-04, 08:15 PM Reply #16 »
Lucky, do you get the starting prices from somewhere or do you work them out for yourself ?

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-05, 06:14 PM Reply #17 »
Well isn't that interesting,
I need help because I am in experienced, and I should be quizzing Wenona's brain on horse pricing and ratings
as Antitab# suggested.

Are you guys going to help or not. 8-)


Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-05, 07:24 PM Reply #18 »
Now just one more thing,

A punter posted this,

sometimes 120% the target prices will be so short that the actual prices will almost always exceed the target making them fairly useless as betting guides.

Now can anyone tell me the best starting price percentage in each state, and then the best odds percentage in each state please.

Remember, I have a punter that can give me all the starting price I want GREAT, and I have 2 punters that can help me with rating and prices, and should be quizzing Wenona's brains on this aspect.

I have had no response, Now I am getting Pi....ed OFF because these so called experts of horse racing are nowhere in site.

So Antitab, Wenona, be careful who you play with here, because at this moment you  guy's know Jack SH.T about anything,
But if you do , start sharing your so called knowledge with me now and we will see who know's what.

Get your ratings,selection,or tips up so I can see how you apply your methods.

Otherwise keep your comments and your so called knowledge to yourselves,and stop making other punters lives a misery with your comments.

Come on Boys bring it on !

Sorry MAgic had to let loose. Sorry to the forum. :nowink:


Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-05, 07:26 PM Reply #19 »
By the way

If there is one thing I know, is my horse racing and how to rate horses
 8-)

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Jan-05, 07:38 PM Reply #20 »
Good onya Stormy ... you keep it up .....

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-05, 07:49 PM Reply #21 »
A punter posted this, I won't mention his name
any punter that frames his market at 120% is a goose !

To this punter, you know who you are !

Tell me the starting price percentage in each state, then tell me best odds percentage in each state.

Now if you don't understand the above mentioned, what percentage do bookies frame their prices at in each state ?
And don't come back and tell me it is 100% BECAUSE EACH STATE IS DIFFERENT and not in ONE state do the bookies use 100% to frame their markets.
So please I am all eyes ! Show me what you know and show me the market percent for each state.
Then can you show the market percentage for the TOTE

  :noteworthy:
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-05, 08:01 PM by Stormy »

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-05, 08:05 PM Reply #22 »
Ok I will help you, with one,

The tote market percentage fluc a little, but they run in between 119.93% & 117.70%
Now all I need is the 5 states.

OHHH and don't forget Lucky he can give me all the starting prices I want. Because he knows people. GREAT.
Cheers 8-)
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-05, 08:08 PM by Stormy »

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-05, 08:15 PM Reply #23 »
Magic, your are right on the mark with how the ratings work.
Watch this thread for the markets. Just waiting on the experts.
 8-)  emthup

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2009-Jan-05, 08:41 PM Reply #24 »
You appear slightly agitated stormy  :biggrin:


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