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Methodologies: Picking Winners - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Methodologies: Picking Winners  (Read 7031 times)

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Offline Bundy

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-06, 09:10 PM »
Tell us all about your method :p

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:12 PM Reply #1 »
Me, I watch video replays.....and watch...and watch...and watch.....then Blackbook them...then back them...watch them get beat then win next start when I'm not on... :p

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:14 PM Reply #2 »
But I have decided to refine....I will back them for their next 2 starts....that should do it :wub:

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:14 PM Reply #3 »
Basically my method.        8-)            :sweat:

I too would be interested in the rating gurus thoughts.

As i have asked many many times before, how do you factor LUCK into your pricing ?

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:15 PM Reply #4 »
Thats easy Author....just bet in races under 2400 metres :p

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:17 PM Reply #5 »
They must be to 120% over 2400m and over 120% for under 2400m.

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:20 PM Reply #6 »
another thought on my method....why do we cal it a "Blackbook"?....might change mine to "Bluebook"....sounds BETTER.. :p

Offline arakaan

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:21 PM Reply #7 »
Saturday, every saturday the best betting meeting is at the Gold Coast. Just remember that.  ;)

Offline arakaan

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:22 PM Reply #8 »
another thought on my method....why do we cal it a "Blackbook"?....might change mine to "Bluebook"....sounds BETTER.. :p

because a blackbook is supposed to be a guide to winners who will put you in the black.  ;)

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:24 PM Reply #9 »
Mines Red then

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:25 PM Reply #10 »
Heres an interesting one....in race 5 at Randwick tomorrow....Pompey......it ran a huge race on Saturday at huge odds....I Bluebooked :pit....my comment "will win or place next start up to 1100"....4 days later it is in a 1550m race :what:.....wtf......maybe it wont start...

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:27 PM Reply #11 »
my 2nd (reserve) methodology.....wait till Arakaan posts all the winners for the GoldwetCoast and back them too :p

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:27 PM Reply #12 »
If you'd have pink booked it, it would have been a suitable distance.

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:28 PM Reply #13 »
I always thought if I was in someones blackbooks that I was in deep doodoo...... :p

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-06, 09:32 PM Reply #14 »
From Bundy's Bluebook :palso at Randwick tomorrow.....race 7 Redalucas Gaze..."nearly fell twice first run back....ran on well"

Online westie

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« 2009-Jan-06, 10:03 PM Reply #15 »
Saturday, every saturday the best betting meeting is at the Gold Coast. Just remember that.  ;)

Perhaps your own thread under the QLD Gallops thread Aga Khan sound like a good title.

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-07, 11:44 AM Reply #16 »
Track RNo TAB Name odds ($)
         
Randwick 6 2 Aly Queen Of Scots $4.40
Randwick 6 1 Choisie $5.00
Randwick 6 3 Lucky Thirteen $5.40
Randwick 6 10 Zeta $13.50
Randwick 6 8 Sellout $15.20
Randwick 6 4 Harvest Queen $20.90
Randwick 6 13 Calibre Cut $21.80
Randwick 6 7 Play Of Light $25.50
Randwick 6 15 Redalucas Gaze $27.60
Randwick 6 5 De Prima Ballerina $35.10
Randwick 6 9 Misty Dbird $50.40
Randwick 6 11 La Vedette $52.40
Randwick 6 16 Prinnys Girl $137.00

okay ratings gurus....what is the market % here and please show me how it is calculated as I have long forgotten!


Offline BurntToast

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« 2009-Jan-07, 11:54 AM Reply #17 »
another thought on my method....why do we cal it a "Blackbook"?....might change mine to "Bluebook"....sounds BETTER.. :p

because a blackbook is supposed to be a guide to winners who will put you in the black.  ;)

Does that mean those of us who use Betfair should be using [bgcolor=#B0B0B0]GREENbooks[/bgcolor]?
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-07, 11:57 AM by BurntToast »

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-07, 12:16 PM Reply #18 »
just answer my post below toasty :p

Offline BurntToast

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« 2009-Jan-07, 12:24 PM Reply #19 »
just answer my post below toasty :p

Easy Bundy, all of those odds, just calculate the inverse of them (so $4.40 = 1/4.4 = 0.227) - that gets you the probability for each horse. Add all those numbers up, multiply by 100 and that's your market percentage for the race.

The example you have there adds up to 100%

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-07, 12:28 PM Reply #20 »
ta toasty...100% eh...that means I might break even over the next 100 years or so? :p

Offline calgary

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« 2009-Jan-07, 12:44 PM Reply #21 »
ta toasty...100% eh...that means I might break even over the next 100 years or so? :p

Only if you backed each horse at exactly the price marked.

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-07, 12:47 PM Reply #22 »
who is ur avatar sammy?..... :love: :p

Offline calgary

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« 2009-Jan-07, 12:48 PM Reply #23 »
who is ur avatar sammy?..... :love: :p

Ana Ivanovic

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-07, 03:46 PM Reply #24 »
From Bundy's Bluebook :palso at Randwick tomorrow.....race 7 Redalucas Gaze..."nearly fell twice first run back....ran on well"

Looked a tad unlucky...not sure it woulda won tho....loved the place divvy :p


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