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Offline LeRoi

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« 2018-Jun-20, 07:41 PM Reply #25 »
Agreed former trainers would be great as MY assessors. And considering most of them do a bit of bloodstock work, they are probably lacking things to do on raceday.

Would be a great option for them.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jun-20, 09:17 PM Reply #26 »
Agreed former trainers would be great as MY assessors. And considering most of them do a bit of bloodstock work, they are probably lacking things to do on raceday.

Would be a great option for them.

I know I'll get hounded down but I think one of the best MYM people is/was trainer Richard Freedman on Sky. He used to cover the midweek Sydney meeting. He doesn't have any diplomacy. If he doesn't like the look of something he will say it.

As for "shiny coats" and "looks fit" like others here I don't place much weight on them. Prefer to know if a horse has been playing up and has run his/her race before getting out onto the track, and even then they sometimes win!!

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Jun-20, 10:41 PM Reply #27 »
I know I'll get hounded down but I think one of the best MYM people is/was trainer Richard Freedman on Sky. He used to cover the midweek Sydney meeting. He doesn't have any diplomacy. If he doesn't like the look of something he will say it.

As for "shiny coats" and "looks fit" like others here I don't place much weight on them. Prefer to know if a horse has been playing up and has run his/her race before getting out onto the track, and even then they sometimes win!!
Don't have an opinion on Richard Freedman's mounting yard prowess but I will never forget his assessment of Tavago a couple of years back in the Australian Derby.

He described him among other things as a runt and basically suggested he shouldn't even be in the field.

I remember thinking at the time that Richard hadn't been doing his replays.

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Jun-21, 01:14 PM Reply #28 »
Arsenal you missed the point, you said you don't agree that trainers are the best judges of a horses chances.........did you read what this thread is about? It is not about form analysis....it is not about who is the best horse necessarily.....it is about Mounting Yard analysis..........surely the punter does the form, what MYM is about is conformation that the horse will run to it's current form, improve on it's current form.......or go backwards on it's current form............MYM is not about spoon feeding you........

I believe Trainers would be far better placed to give that kind of intelligence than ex Jockeys or self taught punters...............you don't need ex Trainers......., they could use a local trainer at every track.......I am sure most would jump at the chance to earn some extra money and get some exposure for their business.....they may not be as pretty as ex female Jockeys.....or as well connected as the second cousin of the uncle of a friend who once had a bet whose Mother works at Sky Channel..........

As for What Richard Freedman allegedly said about Tavago.........saying it is a runt is telling the truth as he sees it............you are nitpicking, most Runts are not good betting propositions(assuming you mean a small and weedy beast....something like a racehorse undersized..........now where have I heard that line before?) You would need to hear the full comment to put what he said into context........and from memory it was 50/1 when it won the Derby, wasn't it?

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Jun-21, 10:46 PM Reply #29 »
.....

As for What Richard Freedman allegedly said about Tavago.........saying it is a runt is telling the truth as he sees it............you are nitpicking, most Runts are not good betting propositions(assuming you mean a small and weedy beast....something like a racehorse undersized..........now where have I heard that line before?) You would need to hear the full comment to put what he said into context........and from memory it was 50/1 when it won the Derby, wasn't it?
The context was simply that R Freedman didn't like the look of Tavago, didn't seem to know anything about the horse and felt at $60.00  it was safe to mock and deride him.


It sticks in my mind because I had backed him and my point was simply that his supposed expert eyes couldn't have been anymore wrong.

You do wonder if the trainer of Tavago was JB Cummings he probably would have a different opinion.

He has done a good job with Auvray though. :bye:

« Last Edit: 2018-Jun-21, 10:49 PM by nemisis »

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Jun-22, 10:50 PM Reply #30 »
nemesis I haven't seen Tavago so I can't comment on what he looked like.....but your assumption that he "couldn't have been anymore wrong" couldn't be anymore wrong!

In your words he said he was a runt.........that could have been 100% correct..........the result is irrelevant.........The result doesn't prove the horse was a good type, he was a superior wet tracker
He won because he was by Tavago and the track was a bog....on a good track he would have probably been gapped..........Wet trackers can be a law unto themselves....there are wet track types but very few can pick them on looks.....they are not usually the best "types" in the race
As I have stated many times When someone gets the gig to do MYM they worry about their strike rate, cos they want to keep the job....so they do the form....like the majority of punters, they ignore the long priced runners, they don't look for virtues, the look for negatives according to price....in the faves they look for positives, in the roughies they look for negatives.....and you will always find what you are looking for
It is the pressure of the job..........they can be right and still not tip the winner, alternatively they can be wrong and tip the winner, punting isn't an exact science.....what I would want in MYM is just an honest assessment of how each horse parades, I don't want a tip.........

AS an example of what I mean, I was at the races once and backed 2 horses in the same race, it was a 2400 metre race, one needed a slow run race and he would sprint over the top of them, the other was really fit and in a slow run race would get outsprinted, they were both fit for the job but were trained different...........my really fit horse and another horse in the race went hammer and tongs in front, about the half mile the caller said these two leaders will have to stop, they are going too hard......I was supremely confident that the other horse would stop but mine would just keep going, it was run exactly as he needed it to be run, coming to the turn the other horse collapsed and left mine still 10 in front and he won by 10....(he was 20/1) The other one I backed was never in the hunt and I knew he wouldn't be, the way the race was run......if they hadn't gone out so hard I am sure he would have been hard to beat too...........fitness is subjective, the way races are run changes what you need
TJ was probably the smartest Trainer I have ever seen, he had his horses ridden the way he trained them.......he fed them hard, trained them hard, and he rode them hard........if you can't stand the  heat get out of the kitchen
Not many trainers realise that there is an art in knowing what kind of fitness you have and ride the horse to suit the way you train
there wouldn't be 1% of horses that are actually peaked, right at their top...........on any given day
As a Punter you have to know how to use MYM to suit how you punt

My point is you can be right and still not win, you can be wrong and get the chocolates

Happy Punting.....you too Pete!

Offline LeRoi

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« 2018-Jun-23, 02:03 PM Reply #31 »
Agree whole heartedly Dave, the pressure of tipping a winner should not affect MY assessments, it is something Glenn has mentioned previously.

Thatís why I believe they should be equally commended for potting horses (particularly short priced ones), who could be laid, than finding winners.


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Offline Dave

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« 2018-Jun-23, 09:45 PM Reply #32 »
I remember going to Randwick one day, there was a 4 horse field in the first race of the day, one horse was the $1.40 fav.....and it had a bowed tendon! it was absolutely certain to tail off last! That would have been nice info for the punters to have, wouldn't it? I boxed the tri...........it paid pretty well with the $1.40 fav out too......you don't get opportunities like that very often....but it accentuates your point...unfortunately that was long before the advent of Betfair, so laying it wasn't an option

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Jun-24, 09:21 AM Reply #33 »
nemesis I haven't seen Tavago so I can't comment on what he looked like.....but your assumption that he "couldn't have been anymore wrong" couldn't be anymore wrong!

In your words he said he was a runt.........that could have been 100% correct..........the result is irrelevant.........The result doesn't prove the horse was a good type, he was a superior wet tracker
He won because he was by Tavago and the track was a bog....on a good track he would have probably been gapped..........Wet trackers can be a law unto themselves....there are wet track types but very few can pick them on looks.....they are not usually the best "types" in the race
As I have stated many times When someone gets the gig to do MYM they worry about their strike rate, cos they want to keep the job....so they do the form....like the majority of punters, they ignore the long priced runners, they don't look for virtues, the look for negatives according to price....in the faves they look for positives, in the roughies they look for negatives.....and you will always find what you are looking for
It is the pressure of the job..........they can be right and still not tip the winner, alternatively they can be wrong and tip the winner, punting isn't an exact science.....what I would want in MYM is just an honest assessment of how each horse parades, I don't want a tip.........




Dave the 2016 Derby was run on a soft 6 so that's not a bog.

Tavago ran a faster last 600m than Winx did in the Doncaster a couple of races later.

IMO he, like many horses just likes some give in the ground.

I was only commenting on the level of the pasting R Freedman, Sky's mounting yard expert, had for the horse .

Richard only had eyes for the $1.60 fav Tarzino  but like punters, mounting yard analysts are mostly wrong and very occasionally right.

Did catch this from Sky's MYM yesterday "he's bred in NZ so he will like the heavy track" .....brilliant stuff.


 

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jun-24, 02:16 PM Reply #34 »

Tavago ran a faster last 600m than Winx did in the Doncaster a couple of races later.


I doubt that very much mate.

Tavago was 3rd at the 800m and 2nd at the 400m. Winx was way back and to be honest she seems a 100-1 on the turn. She musters to beat Happy Clapper and Azkadelia - two very classy horses in their own right.

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2016Apr02&VenueCode=MTQzNjQwMA==&RaceNumber=9&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=Last400m

What would have been more accurate would be to say that the sectionals for the Derby were faster in the Derby than in the Doncaster.

Tavago ran 2.33.7 which is hopelessly slow so they couldn't have gone very fast earlier setting it up for a fast sectional. Winx ran 1.35.27 which is quick for a Soft track 1600m.



Offline Dave

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« 2018-Jun-24, 02:28 PM Reply #35 »
Again he may not have been wrong, it may have been a "runt" meaning on the small side....that in itself is not saying it isn't at it's best or that it's not ready to run as good as it can.........but I agree they do the form first then the MY and they see what they want to see......like the vast majority of punters........punters are looking for a "tip" so Sky MYM experts oblige and give a tip.....but it is 99% based on form not the horses appearance, obviously their tips look OK in their opinion..........I would prefer a Trainer who wasn't a punter and who didn't look at the form before a race to do the MYM, that way you would get a view that was pure.......then add that to your own form assessments.....but that is never going to happen, is it?

As for Tavago running quicker time for the last 600 than Winx.....it just ain't true!! the time is clocked leader to leader.....From memory Tavago raced on the pace and cut the corner....Winx was standing the leaders a good 8 or 10 lengths and was blocked and changed course several times in the straight and wasn't punished to win easy.........you could probably take the best part of 2 seconds off the last 600 of the Doncaster leader to leader time to get close to what Winx ran........the Derby time may have been quicker than the Doncaster time.....but (correct me if I am wrong) Tavago was much slower than Winx

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Jun-24, 02:46 PM Reply #36 »
I doubt that very much mate.

Tavago was 3rd at the 800m and 2nd at the 400m. Winx was way back and to be honest she seems a 100-1 on the turn. She musters to beat Happy Clapper and Azkadelia - two very classy horses in their own right.

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2016Apr02&VenueCode=MTQzNjQwMA==&RaceNumber=9&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=Last400m

What would have been more accurate would be to say that the sectionals for the Derby were faster in the Derby than in the Doncaster.

Tavago ran 2.33.7 which is hopelessly slow so they couldn't have gone very fast earlier setting it up for a fast sectional. Winx ran 1.35.27 which is quick for a Soft track 1600m.
Thanks PP7 and I stand corrected......didn't think enough.




Offline LeRoi

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« 2018-Jun-24, 09:12 PM Reply #37 »
Did anyone used to subscribe to Mark Sheans old MYM package with Just Racing? Is he any good?


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Online JWesleyHarding

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« 2018-Jun-24, 10:05 PM Reply #38 »
Did anyone used to subscribe to Mark Sheans old MYM package with Just Racing? Is he any good?


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Dunno.

But I reckon he's the most knowledgeable of people I've ever heard vis-a-vis racehorses.


Offline gunbower

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« 2018-Jun-24, 11:04 PM Reply #39 »
Yes I remember when ; I think it was 3UZ pioneered this type of thing with the late great rider Roy Higgins casting his eye over the contestants in the mounting yard. Since then we have had  various' " personalities " giving us the benefit of their so called expertise. We have endured the likes of Bernie Cooper, Ron Dufficy and a host of other no names providing their insights. I think in hindsight that the only thing they shared with Higgins is that they through their legs over a racehorse. Basically it is all just "fill " the same that happens before any sporting contest/.

Offline LeRoi

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« 2018-Jun-30, 03:22 PM Reply #40 »
Dunno.

But I reckon he's the most knowledgeable of people I've ever heard vis-a-vis racehorses.

Interesting....hopefully he gets another gig.

Anyone using the guys at TheRaceClub? Seems like they give it on the website for free now, with their NSW guy also posting his thoughts on twitter.

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2018-Jun-30, 05:27 PM Reply #41 »
Yes I remember when ; I think it was 3UZ pioneered this type of thing with the late great rider Roy Higgins casting his eye over the contestants in the mounting yard. Since then we have had  various' " personalities " giving us the benefit of their so called expertise. We have endured the likes of Bernie Cooper, Ron Dufficy and a host of other no names providing their insights. I think in hindsight that the only thing they shared with Higgins is that they through their legs over a racehorse. Basically it is all just "fill " the same that happens before any sporting contest/.

After retiring as a jockey Roy Higgins got his break at the mounting yard caper, when on the first race he offered his expertise he potted an odds on favourite trained by Robert Smerdon, which subsequently ran poorly.
I was attending the races when Roy Higgins was "casting his eye over the contestants in the mounting yard", however I can assure you before he ever caste his eye over the horses he was either watching the bookies' boards and/or writing down tote odds, neither of which should have influenced his tips which were supposedly based on their mounting yard appearance.
If a horse was well backed, prior to entering the mounting yard, regardless of its form, Roy usually had it in his tips.
.

Offline timw

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« 2018-Jun-30, 05:59 PM Reply #42 »
At Caulfield I remember Roy Higgins would give his tips from the exercise yard which was past the winning post.  He was wired up to a black box about the size of a couple of loaves of bread (presumably a transceiver).  Typically he mentioned half a dozen horses he though had chances and if he mentioned my pick I would put something on otherwise no bet. 

Cheers

Offline JayDee

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« 2018-Jul-01, 10:57 AM Reply #43 »
Don't tell me if the horse looks good today.

Tell me if it looks or behaves better or worse than it did last start, the start before or the last time it won.

The older I get the more convinced I become of the importance of judging if a horse will improve, is unlikely to repeat or improve, or has reasons to be forgiven in form analysis.

Dave, the above post is the key to the mounting yard. You are correct in your thoughts in reference to affirmation being sought by mounting yard assessors. All pros do the form and the mounting yard is just another tool in assessing final betting strategies. Hence the big syndicates such as ZR betting so late. The vital cog in the mounting yard is finding the horses that have factors negatively affecting their performance and being able to exclude them. By ruling out these runners places percentages in your favour to obtain value around them. A 7/2 chance ruled out floats 28% back into the market which typically trades at 103%. If you rule out more runners value improves. This why we see these syndicates backing 5 or 6 or 7 runners sometimes as the percentages favour them.

Just another tool in the shed Dave...remember itís not how big itís how..............!

*notable that having a Ďdeadí one also provides these syndicates with the same percentage value as per penning one from the yard. Difference being they are usually a lot shorter than 7/2.

Offline 28.8

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« 2019-Dec-16, 06:24 PM Reply #44 »
Wot is still here, after 30 years I tip winners after winners for free, mounting yard fitness % tips off 3 monitors.

On track for mega % profits.

Good luck

James

Offline 28.8

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« 2019-Dec-16, 10:05 PM Reply #45 »
HOW BIG IS A HORSE TO WIN.

When looking in the mounting yards rating 500 - 600 horses a day which I do in a fitness %, you just have to take into account a bigger horses against a small horse.

The smaller horse will lose 8/10 times. James live mounting yard tips

Offline 28.8

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« 2019-Dec-17, 07:48 AM Reply #46 »
Punters need to know how fit your next bet is, it is not in your form guides.

You may as well throw a dart at times.

I don't study the form, just rate on a percentage of fitness.

James

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Dec-17, 11:19 AM Reply #47 »
We know that Wot.

Time to stop teling us about your business  :lol:

Online JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Dec-17, 11:40 AM Reply #48 »
From memory WOT stands for Win On Track but WOT has the ability to judge condition from the screen.

 :chin:

 

Offline 28.8

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« 2019-Dec-17, 01:21 PM Reply #49 »
Yes, off screens now, too old.

Winners around the world from mounting yards,  free tips to punters.

Lay strike rate 99.50% best run 618 winners in a row.l

James


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