nemesis I haven't seen Tavago so I can't comment on what he looked like.....but your assumption that he "couldn't have been anymore wrong" couldn't be anymore wrong!
In your words he said he was a runt.........that could have been 100% correct..........the result is irrelevant.........The result doesn't prove the horse was a good type, he was a superior wet tracker
He won because he was by Tavago and the track was a bog....on a good track he would have probably been gapped..........Wet trackers can be a law unto themselves....there are wet track types but very few can pick them on looks.....they are not usually the best "types" in the race
As I have stated many times When someone gets the gig to do MYM they worry about their strike rate, cos they want to keep the job....so they do the form....like the majority of punters, they ignore the long priced runners, they don't look for virtues, the look for negatives according to price....in the faves they look for positives, in the roughies they look for negatives.....and you will always find what you are looking for
It is the pressure of the job..........they can be right and still not tip the winner, alternatively they can be wrong and tip the winner, punting isn't an exact science.....what I would want in MYM is just an honest assessment of how each horse parades, I don't want a tip.........
AS an example of what I mean, I was at the races once and backed 2 horses in the same race, it was a 2400 metre race, one needed a slow run race and he would sprint over the top of them, the other was really fit and in a slow run race would get outsprinted, they were both fit for the job but were trained different...........my really fit horse and another horse in the race went hammer and tongs in front, about the half mile the caller said these two leaders will have to stop, they are going too hard......I was supremely confident that the other horse would stop but mine would just keep going, it was run exactly as he needed it to be run, coming to the turn the other horse collapsed and left mine still 10 in front and he won by 10....(he was 20/1) The other one I backed was never in the hunt and I knew he wouldn't be, the way the race was run......if they hadn't gone out so hard I am sure he would have been hard to beat too...........fitness is subjective, the way races are run changes what you need
TJ was probably the smartest Trainer I have ever seen, he had his horses ridden the way he trained them.......he fed them hard, trained them hard, and he rode them hard........if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen
Not many trainers realise that there is an art in knowing what kind of fitness you have and ride the horse to suit the way you train
there wouldn't be 1% of horses that are actually peaked, right at their top...........on any given day
As a Punter you have to know how to use MYM to suit how you punt
My point is you can be right and still not win, you can be wrong and get the chocolates
Happy Punting.....you too Pete!