Out the Other - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Out the Other - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Out the Other  (Read 1216 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
O.P. « 2018-Jan-21, 12:23 PM »
Tabcorp persists in misreporting its KPIs courtesy of a ruse bundling disparate segments into the category called Other.

However with considerable forensic effort I believe I have managed to deduce a reasonable approximation to Premium Punter activity over the last 5 years.

Summarised here.

I'll explain more soon.

TurnoverRake
2017   715.57  2.59  0.36%
2016   684.52-9.40-1.37%
2015   489.83-30.06-6.14%
2014   441.43-25.81-5.85%
2013   421.01-30.44-7.23%
« Last Edit: 2018-Jan-30, 05:27 PM by jfc »

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 30965
« 2018-Jan-21, 12:27 PM Reply #1 »
Not sure if this belongs here but it seems as good as any, How do they pay for their multiplier on tote dividends ?

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Jan-21, 12:53 PM Reply #2 »
Multiplier? Que?

Anyway, back in 2013 Premium Punters won 6.7% on Tote Turnover.

So Tabcorp had negative Revenue from them.

No wonder it didn't trouble to declare that key statistic in its reporting.

But now the Premiums actually lost 1.98%.

Not that they are that suicidal because the undeclared Kickbacks more cover those losses.


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Jan-22, 11:43 AM Reply #3 »
This describes how I arrived at the initial table.

Tabcorp does not disclose On Course Turnover in its KPI Reports.

But they can be found 5 months later in the Fact Book.

So Premium = Other - On Course

On Course Turnover has declined massively.

So Tabcorp claims the Other Turnover is declining slightly.

But the true story is that Premium Turnover has been growing dramatically!

   OtherOn CoursePremium
2017   1051.1   271.15779.95
2016   1068.5   300.03768.47
2015   1038.5   405.71632.79
2014   1084.8   466.33618.47
2013   1172.1   545.96626.14

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Jan-25, 08:52 AM Reply #4 »
When circumstances permit I will correct minor errors in the preceding data.

Anyway, the Fact Book lets me derive Tabcorp's Tote Turnover, which Tabcorp withholds from its ASX Reports.

Thus I can determine Tabcorp's Tote Rake is currently 19.79%.

This continues to increase as Tabcorp goes to greater lengths to hide it.

But the Rake for Premium Pirates is ~0%.

And the Market Share for them is now 12.94%.

233% of what it was 5 years ago!

Adjusting for that the non-Premium Rake becomes 22.97%.

A 16.07% increase.

Any of you naive enough to still go anywhere near the Tote need to have a long hard look at your problem.

Offline nemisis

  • Group3
  • User 2461
  • Posts: 713
« 2018-Jan-26, 10:51 AM Reply #5 »
Thanks for posting  jfc.

Can't really be surprised can we?
 

 

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Jan-30, 03:38 PM Reply #6 »
Rather than this absurd situation, here is one thing Tabcorp could have tried to fix Tote problems that have arisen as the wagering landscape evolved.

Imagine trialing a 5% Kickback for Early Bird betting, but matched $ for $, so the Kickback also applies for an equivalent amount of late bets.

Such a scheme would not deter any big punter unwilling to declare their hand early because no one knows whether his early bet was his main intent.

But it would significantly stabilise Pools allowing punters to bet confidently.

Therefore both Turnover and Revenue should rise.

Because it mitigates a huge problem where certain unwelcome punters crush an Over extremely late.

But if it fails to take off in 3 months, then scrap it.




Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Feb-12, 06:59 PM Reply #7 »
Trying to answer Bascoe's question about Premium Punter activity, within the constraints of tackling such a sensitive topic.

By my calculations here Premium Punter activity has actually increased into a waning Tote market!

Because of the magnitude of Kickbacks! Encouraging overbacking so as to lose, but gaining more overall Kickback-wise!

Who these Premium Punters are is hard to discern.

I suspect individuals are still being pushed out.

And the dominant Premium Players are Corporates, Aggregators, Commission Agents and Syndicates.

When TBH announce that Sean Bartholomew will pump in $200 million annually into GlobalTote (not forgetting to enjoy an obscene Kickback in the process), who knows where this insanity will end up!


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Aug-09, 09:22 AM Reply #8 »
While my eyesight is far from getting better I've been scouring the Results Presentation and find a key table seems to be missing.

2. WAGERING & MEDIA: REVENUES BY STATE AND PRODUCT


That table was in 2017 and tears before that.

It allowed me to learn the Revenue for Other grew 3.4% to $69.7 million.

And hence estimate the Premium Punter activity.

But no more!

Wonder if the Tabcorp supremos are avid readers of this thread?


Offline Grega9430

  • Listed
  • User 267
  • Posts: 492
« 2018-Aug-09, 03:24 PM Reply #9 »
When circumstances permit I will correct minor errors in the preceding data.

Anyway, the Fact Book lets me derive Tabcorp's Tote Turnover, which Tabcorp withholds from its ASX Reports.

Thus I can determine Tabcorp's Tote Rake is currently 19.79%.

This continues to increase as Tabcorp goes to greater lengths to hide it.

But the Rake for Premium Pirates is ~0%.

And the Market Share for them is now 12.94%.

233% of what it was 5 years ago!

Adjusting for that the non-Premium Rake becomes 22.97%.

A 16.07% increase.

Any of you naive enough to still go anywhere near the Tote need to have a long hard look at your problem.

JFC, a few questions below if you feel inclined thanks.

Wasn't there once a cap on the average rake of around 17% and anything in excess had to be returned to the punters?

Have they abolished this?

Why do you say zero rake for premium? - maybe zero loss instead.

 I don't disagree that the non-premium punters average loss has now probably increased to over 22%, but who can protect these people as the various state governments have failed them by facilitating this rort?

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Aug-09, 04:49 PM Reply #10 »
Back when the Tote Tasmania Kickback Scam was going on it was depriving the other Supertab members of ~$65 million a year!

So that meant Victoria almost certainly exceeded its cap.

I rang the regulator, got through to a heavy who then tried to give me the runaround with some cloaca about this simply being variance!

He then claimed that the minister (Brumby) has discretion to waive the cap rule!

Can't say I ever spotted this Zeljkophilic escape clause in the rules.

Later on Tabcorp and its co-conspirators managed to get the cap weakened.


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6350
« 2018-Aug-13, 04:57 PM Reply #11 »
We need to wait ~5 months for the Fact Book to figure if the Premium Turnover has dropped.

But assuming the UNITAB 8.4% drop for On Course is the same as that for that of the old Tabcorp, it looks like Premium has dropped ~2%.

Not sure how serious that is.


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap