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Online fours

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O.P. « 2016-Jun-12, 09:14 AM »
Peter Mair and other qualifiers....

1) The goal is to make a profit.

2) Bookmakers generally turn up in Mercedes, planes and helicopters and leave in same and set prices on favourites to slowly take money off Hyundai drivers and public transport users who start the day properly dressed but go home shirtless.

3) Bookies rinse and repeat this process each Saturday as quite simply they rely on 5 x $1.80 or less to equal less than $10.00 to take your money over the course of a day. That is from 10 bets they are happy for you to have 5 or less wins on shorties.... eg exactly what Peter Mair says he wants.... in other words he wants to lose while being 'entertained' with most favs performing to his 'expectations'.

If a given dummy wants to break this cycle ie losing when even ones expectations are met.... then deliberate steps have to be taken. I'll let pegasybers discussion on how smarties can go about the job cover those,  and give one way.... just one way... that dummies might go about it... that they have some small chance of actually doing....

1) the goal remains to make a profit but instead of focusing on favourites in easy races we will do the reverse in every way :-

a) we will look at hard races only... and the simplest defintion of that I can give is races with 12 or more starters.... the one's Peter Mair hates.... so far

b) we will look at roughies and not just any roughies but those paying $15 or more the place only ie extreme roughies

c) the simplist rule I can give for dummies to cull from these is to only allow those wth a place % > 50% to be considered

So at the 5 metro meetings how many qualifiers were there over the course of the day? Around 8 and most ran dreadfully .... as the market is not totally stupid.

However the market IS STUPID to a degree and here were some results :-

High Spirits runs fourth to the favourite and a simple fav/field/field/High spirits first four for $2.50 would have snared the 16g or so first four for 1% $2.50 returning >$160.00 is not such a dummy result at all

The Virginian runs  place at eagle farm and pays $22.00

Still at Eagle Farm Heart Skipt a Beat pays $21.10, another near qualifier in the same race pays much the same - huge first four!

At Belmont Gris Caro pays $44.70 the place.

So from ~8 or so bets we have a fourth and a simple first four with the fav winning for a dummy to get of 16 grand.

Actual place dividends of $21.10, $22.00 and $44.70  giving a return for a $8.00 outlay of $87.80 on VICTAB alone. Some might double that on Betfair.

And all this time you've been looking at favourites - DUMMY!

It's not quite this simple or repeatable.... but this sort of thing, and these sort of results, ARE NOT unusual.

So I would encourage dummies to cull going forward. - lots of horses are at these prices because they are simply not ready or fit enough for the given days task.

Fours







« Last Edit: 2020-Jan-05, 10:55 PM by fours »

Online wily ole dog

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« 2016-Jun-12, 10:24 AM Reply #1 »
Further along those lines fours.
I backed Achmed in Perth who paid $11.20 the place and Zarantz @$9.60 in Perth
Sold for song @$4.80 the place along with the Great Virginian @$24.80 the place. A mate had $200 on @ $34 the place :bulb:
In Melbourne, Leveraction was a last start winner and saluted @ @$41

Peter M would bemoan all of those results but if a dummy like me can find them I wonder what form study he does  :lol:

The reason he bangs on about the big exotic divvys suggests to me that he should concentrate on finding winners and leave the F4 & quaddies to those who do their homework :bulb:

Online fours

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« 2016-Jun-12, 10:53 AM Reply #2 »
Wiley,

Place is as simple as it can get but of course from the divs you mentioned there is an art to shopping around to maximise prices.

BUT... working out whch ones will shorten from early prices... and those that will lengthen ( which may be most dramatic at the death ) is not quite so easy but generally speaking anytime you get more than $30.00 one should be happy as long as you get a start.

Fours

Online fours

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« 2016-Jun-25, 04:20 PM Reply #3 »
Wells ... $16.00 the place

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-05, 09:11 AM Reply #4 »
Peter Mair and other qualifiers....

1) The goal is to make a profit.

2) Bookmakers generally turn up in Mercedes, planes and helicopters and leave in same and set prices on favourites to slowly take money off Hyundai drivers and public transport users who start the day properly dressed but go home shirtless.

3) Bookies rinse and repeat this process each Saturday as quite simply they rely on 5 x 1.80 or less to equal less than $10.00 to take your money over the course of a day. That is from 10 bets they are happy for you to have 5 or less wins on shorties.... eg exactly what Peter Mair says he wants.... in oiter words he wants to lose while being 'entertained' with most favs performing to his 'expectations.

If a given dummy wants to break this cycle ie losing when even ons expactations are met.... than deliberate steps have to be taken. I'll let pegasybers discussion on how smarties can go about the job cover those,  and give one way.... just one way... that dummies might go about it... that they have some small chance of actually doing....

1) the goal remains to make a profit but instead of focusing on favourites in easy races we will do the reverse in every way :-

a) we will look at hard races only... and the simplest defintion of that I can give is races with 12 or more starters.... the one's Peter Mair hates.... so far

b) we will look at roughies and not just any roughies but those paying $15 or more the place only ie extreme roughies

c) the simpist rule I can give for dummies to cull from these is to only allow those wth a place % > 50% to be considered

So at the 5 metro meetings how many qualifiers were there over the course of the day. Around 8 and most ran dreadfully .... as the market is not totally stupid.

However the market IS STUPID to a degree and here were some results :-

High Spirits runs fourth to the favourite and a simple fav/field/field/High spirits first four for $2.50 would have snared the 16g or so first four for 1% $2.50 returning >$160.00 is not such a dummy result at all

The Virginian runs  place at eagle farm and pays $22.00

Still at Eagle Farm Heart Skipt a Beat pays $21.10, another near qualifier in the same race pays much the same - huge first four!

At Belmont Gris Caro pays $44.70 the place.

So from ~8 or so bets we have a fourth and a simple first four with the fav winning for a dummy to get of 16 grand.

Actual place dividends of $21.10, $22.00 and $44.70  giving a return for a $8.00 outlay of $87.80 on VICTAB alone. Some might double that on Betfair.

And all this time you've been looking at favourites - DUMMY!

It's not quite this simple or repeatable.... but this sort of thing, and these sort of results, ARE NOT unusual.

So I would encourage dummies to cull going forward. - lots of horses are at these prices because they are simply not ready or fit enough for the given days task.

Fours


Fours
Itís taken a while but Iíve started following your advice by taking F4s. Iíve decided to stop backing each way and using my place stake to rove my selection for 2nd & 3rd

Got off to a shaky start with a few placegetters where I didnít get the F4 but it reaped reward in the last at Ascot yesterday

Got 8% of the F4 that paid 14k.

What would have been a $50 place bet return catapulted to $1200

Cheers mate :beer:

Online fours

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« 2020-Jan-05, 02:15 PM Reply #5 »
Wiley,

First Fours are not for Dummies if you want a great strike rate but huge rewards are on offer for those that master the variance.

I seem to remember jfc having a tantrum about Red Cadeaux's lovely place dividend in the MC first four  ( something like $24.00 ) meaning it was silly to have it in your first four ( apart from 4th maybe ) rather than simply a place bet on it and there may be a little truth in that. At some point you are better going place only on some selections for 1st 2nd 3rd but pool size plays a role in this too.

I think for most pool sizes jfc is right but for the ridiculously huge MC pool he is wrong on pool sizes alone. But the variance of other placings in the result dramatically complicates this as does any variance in jackpot dividend calculations between venues.

Sunday pools tend to be tiny so your answer is easier today.

Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-05, 06:58 PM Reply #6 »


Good advice:  'fours'  about 'first fours'....... I qualify


I will pay more attention to 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

F4s, my most common bet --  rarely successful -- are most likely to win when there is a smallish field with clear favourites and the rest of the field goes in for fourth.

Alas, big F4 (and quadrella) dividends occur mainly when a favourite does not win and a race is corrupted by an inflated field.

Some races -- e.g. over 1400 at Caulfield and Flemington -- are notoriously unfair with an inflated field and the favourites cannot get to the front.

Most TAB punters assume the race will be 'fair' and exclude 'no-hopers' starting at more than 10/1.

I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.

It is syndicates that cover the field and plunder the pools with rough results.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-05, 08:03 PM Reply #7 »


F4s, my most common bet --  rarely successful --


So stop doing them you fool. Do you want to lose.....Christ Almighty  :no:

Offline gunbower

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« 2020-Jan-05, 09:04 PM Reply #8 »
Wily , Your mate is really a complete di-stick isn't he ? You read his post and confirm he really hasn't got a clue. The poor fellow, if he wasn't such a clown you could nearly feel sorry for him . Nearly !1

Offline Dave

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« 2020-Jan-05, 10:46 PM Reply #9 »
wily that comment from Ole Pete was a Classic "F4s, my most common bet --  rarely successful"

Some advice on Logic for Pete.........If you always do what you always did......You will always get what you always got!
Meaning keep records and Know what you are good at and what you stink at.......don't keep doing something you stink at unless you enjoy it.....and Pete bitches all the time so he ain't enjoying it

I am an Atheist by nature but there is a lot of common sense in the Serenity Prayer that goes like this.......
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, The Courage to change the things I can, And the wisdom to know the difference

Pete would be well advised to study both above simple philosophies on life and Punting!

Good luck and good punting

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-06, 07:19 AM Reply #10 »
I'd suggest that Pete's claim about taking F4s is another bald faced lie on his behalf

What he percieves as a random, large divvy is his only way of pushing  his real agenda and that is hoping to work his way back into the industry that sent him packing

Rather oddly he chooses to do so by making himself appear as a lying idiot

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-06, 06:14 PM Reply #11 »


The rules are on this thread Juenes


                                                   ..... long-odds means paying a place dividend of $15 or more

So the F4 bet is:  one favourite on top for first,  one long-shot for fourth --  and all bar the favourite for 2nd and 3rd -- with a minimum of 11 in the mix for second and third.

I will keep any eye on it for Saturday metropolitan meetings in Melbourne -- where rough results fit the preferred inflated-fields model of RVL administrators (and corporate sponsors) .

Prospectively .....  the stand-out favourite wins about I in 3 and qualifying rough-ones come 4th on rare occasions.... it is a very risky bet that pays well when the top number wins and the bottom number comes 4th.

......... in the middle are a minimum of 122 combinations of runners coming 2nd and 3rd

The the kennel-club-kids will be waiting and ready to recognize successful race outcomes.

As with bushfire-fighting assessments, this looks like a 'watch and wait' -- hoping one does not get away from you and burn the kick.


Quote from: Peter Mair   

The proof of the pudding...................will be revealed by keeping track of the performance of the 50% place-getters starting at long odds.

What is your definition of long odds?


Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Jan-06, 06:36 PM Reply #12 »

I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.


Can we file this somewhere safe in case he actually does talk himself into some sort of position of influence.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-06, 06:55 PM Reply #13 »
ę 17 minutes ago Reply #12 Ľ
Quote from: Peter Mair on January 05, 2020, 19:58:06

I would have a rule 'scratching' horses at the gates with an SP > 20/1,  until the field is reduced to 10 or less.


Can we file this somewhere safe in case he actually does talk himself into some sort of position of influence.

 No because heís an idiot   :lol:

Oh and those in any position within the industry know what a fool the clown is  :biggrin:
« Last Edit: 2020-Jan-06, 06:56 PM by wily ole dog »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-06, 08:09 PM Reply #14 »

Tension in  the kennel,

           ..... tension is mounting in the kennel, as club members get cold feet about putting up the stake to snare a big, but unlikely,  F4 dividend in an inflated field.

The unfolding experience is very likely to bring sadness to the club members -- who, we hope, will ante up the readies to get at least a 1% live ticket.

Bold ambition joins with bold personalities in an adventure against the godds .

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-07, 07:03 AM Reply #15 »
You clearly canít read  :lol:

Offline Dave

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« 2020-Jan-07, 11:17 AM Reply #16 »
I have a few philosophies on life, one is learning from your mistakes and try not to make the same mistake twice........by that I mean when you argue with idiots, first they drag you down to their level......and then beat you with experience........This argument is a "No Win" Pete can't learn as he has no capacity for logic....so trying to explain it to him is like trying to teach a Pig to eat with a Knife and Fork........it ain't ever gunna happen no matter how long you spend telling the Pig about proper eating etiquette........So I am going to (TRY) to leave this thread alone (again) I don't need the frustration......Go gettem' Pete!...Good luck to the rest of you convincing Pete of anything, I am just gunna be a spectator from here on in

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-07, 03:46 PM Reply #17 »
There we go 4s. Thanks again for convincing me :thumbsup:

Got the F4 on the 5th at Mudgee from my only bet of the day

It paid $9052 with a jackpot of $2453 so not too many of us got it.......must be a rort :drool:
« Last Edit: 2020-Jan-07, 03:48 PM by wily ole dog »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-07, 05:36 PM Reply #18 »


....... farewell dave and thanks

.........................now...... does anyone believe the not-wily one bets on the Mudgee races?

.......... racing is racing to a dead end if the proof of the puddings is found in rural racing.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-07, 05:36 PM Reply #19 »
Mair

Are you calling me a liar?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-07, 05:45 PM Reply #20 »


.............. please post the results of the 5th at Mudgee today

Online fours

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« 2020-Jan-07, 05:51 PM Reply #21 »
Wiley,

Had the day off but well done - nice overs for the combos but better available elsewhere again.

About time that winner won too..... drop in class helped a lot no doubt but don't tell Peter....

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-07, 05:52 PM Reply #22 »

.............. please post the results of the 5th at Mudgee today


Tab.com.au you ferking fool


Now answer the question. Are you calling me a liar?

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Jan-07, 06:07 PM Reply #23 »
 Cat go your tongue Mair?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Jan-07, 09:21 PM Reply #24 »


............call yourself what you like ............. I read 'bon hoffa' to be the winner ....it was not the favourite.... and 4th did not pay>15 the place


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