Peter Mair and other qualifiers....
1) The goal is to make a profit.
2) Bookmakers generally turn up in Mercedes, planes and helicopters and leave in same and set prices on favourites to slowly take money off Hyundai drivers and public transport users who start the day properly dressed but go home shirtless.
3) Bookies rinse and repeat this process each Saturday as quite simply they rely on 5 x $1.80 or less to equal less than $10.00 to take your money over the course of a day. That is from 10 bets they are happy for you to have 5 or less wins on shorties.... eg exactly what Peter Mair says he wants.... in other words he wants to lose while being 'entertained' with most favs performing to his 'expectations'.
If a given dummy wants to break this cycle ie losing when even ones expectations are met.... then deliberate steps have to be taken. I'll let pegasybers discussion on how smarties can go about the job cover those, and give one way.... just one way... that dummies might go about it... that they have some small chance of actually doing....
1) the goal remains to make a profit but instead of focusing on favourites in easy races we will do the reverse in every way :-
a) we will look at hard races only... and the simplest defintion of that I can give is races with 12 or more starters.... the one's Peter Mair hates.... so far
b) we will look at roughies and not just any roughies but those paying $15 or more the place only ie extreme roughies
c) the simplist rule I can give for dummies to cull from these is to only allow those wth a place % > 50% to be considered
So at the 5 metro meetings how many qualifiers were there over the course of the day? Around 8 and most ran dreadfully .... as the market is not totally stupid.
However the market IS STUPID to a degree and here were some results :-
High Spirits runs fourth to the favourite and a simple fav/field/field/High spirits first four for $2.50 would have snared the 16g or so first four for 1% $2.50 returning >$160.00 is not such a dummy result at all
The Virginian runs place at eagle farm and pays $22.00
Still at Eagle Farm Heart Skipt a Beat pays $21.10, another near qualifier in the same race pays much the same - huge first four!
At Belmont Gris Caro pays $44.70 the place.
So from ~8 or so bets we have a fourth and a simple first four with the fav winning for a dummy to get of 16 grand.
Actual place dividends of $21.10, $22.00 and $44.70 giving a return for a $8.00 outlay of $87.80 on VICTAB alone. Some might double that on Betfair.
And all this time you've been looking at favourites - DUMMY!
It's not quite this simple or repeatable.... but this sort of thing, and these sort of results, ARE NOT unusual.
So I would encourage dummies to cull going forward. - lots of horses are at these prices because they are simply not ready or fit enough for the given days task.