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Author Topic: Racenet IQ v. Punters IQ  (Read 18396 times)

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Offline Jeunes

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« 2022-Mar-10, 06:47 PM Reply #50 »
We should have a comp and have our top 5 on each major race and get a winner.   :lol:

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/perfect-10-top-5-followers-of-tony-brassel-riding-crest-of-winning-wave-20220310

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2022-Mar-10, 07:00 PM Reply #51 »
God Jeunes donít give monty any oxygen   :lol:

Offline fours

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« 2022-Mar-10, 07:56 PM Reply #52 »
  :lol:   :lol:

Specially at Gosford and Alice Springs....

Fours

Offline Dave

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« 2022-Mar-11, 10:22 AM Reply #53 »
Hi Fours
If they are the Pro's they would have us believe the bookies would not let them on early, i.e. I tried to get $25 on a horse early a couple of weeks ago (Hope In Your Heart) at $221, the bookie let me on for 2 cents, to lose $4.40 there are only a couple of bookies that will let me on at the early prices to win more than a few dollars, I would assume that these so called Pro's who sell their tips would have similar trouble or even more if they are even half as good as they say they are

For me Punting is more than just winning money, it is an intellectual challenge, like doing a crossword and asking others to give you the answers, I just wouldn't bother doing it if I couldn't do it,
same with punting do it because you enjoy the challenge, otherwise you are just punting for GREED....and therein lies the real problem of all "problem" Gamblers

Offline fours

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« 2022-Mar-11, 11:14 AM Reply #54 »
Dave,

We have a lot in common given your thoughts mentioned.

Try winning a few comps then joining a new Corporate - very first bet restricted to virtually nothing....

A compliment of sorts I guess but now I just do exotics and the only restriction is the pool size.

Fours

Offline Rad

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« 2022-Mar-11, 11:50 AM Reply #55 »
I had coffee with my son and his wife yesterday. They asked me about my punting: how I started and how/why I do it. I think they were surprised at the answers.

I started because I got on well with my grandmother, a regular punter with an SP Bookie. She loved it and got me interested. I found that I always lloved the analysis side of horse selection. I was 'doing the form' almost as soon as I could read .... long before I could bet. I'd set myself challenges to reach a certain number of points at each meeting (3,2,1 for first second & third). I improved as I listened to Cliff Cary on 3 Way Turf Talk and later on when I got access to photo form.

That was mum's mum and I found out along the way that dad's dad had been a pro punter. He had owned a horse that won a black type race at Flemington. Unfortunately, granddad passed away when I was only 2. He had looked after grandma by investing in a butcher shops that my dad and my uncle supervised for her. I wish that I had the chance to talk to him about racing. His occupation on his death certificate was 'Investor'.

Like the guys above, I like the challenge of trying to solve the puzzle of working out the likely result of a race - with so many variables and unknowns. I can happily spend hours doing it. I worked out that I probably spend at least 20 hours working on the Melbourne Cup each year (no, I didn't fancy Verry Elleegant at all - couldn't have an aged mare running a career peak - but I did back most other recent winners).

I have to be honest - I am more interested in not losing than chasing big wins. Probably explains my focus on simple win bets rather than betting on the exotics which offer more attractive, but possible less frequent, returns.

Offline fours

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« 2022-Mar-11, 12:21 PM Reply #56 »
Rad,

A few mistakes of outlook in your post above regarding exotics.

My approach with a >80% strike rate is on exotics. Win betting cant approach that and remain profitable and place betting can match it on vastly redcued bets in comparison but also greatly reduced POT.

As the song goes .....


Fours

Offline Rad

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« 2022-Mar-11, 12:50 PM Reply #57 »
I understand that, and that's why I qualified the statement a little. I was more thinking about a quaddie, where 3 legs doesn't pay ... but backing 3 winners out of 4 can pay well ... but not as well as getting the quaddie.

Your point is well made, particularly with the advent of Flexi betting. A well selected multiple, box, or whatever can have a very high strike rate and great returns for a manageable outlay.

Cheers

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2022-Mar-12, 10:17 AM Reply #58 »
Iíve made significantly more money by taking F4s than my previous method of each way betting.. especially when my win bet actually gets beaten and runs 2nd :chin:

Offline fours

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« 2022-Mar-12, 10:36 AM Reply #59 »
wily,

4th EVEN BETTER!

I can only ty to spread the truth but am I being nice or after their money?

Bit of both - some will profit like you but most wont do sufficient work and go much the same as before.

It SHOULD be well known history that Benter's best collect was an exotic one and also that he let it go to charity.

Whether he was leaned on or not is another issue.

Fours

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2022-Mar-12, 11:20 AM Reply #60 »
4s Iím in the process of reviewing my bets for the year but at a glance, mine donít run 4th terribly often.
2nd, 3rd or 8th  :lol:

Offline Rad

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« 2022-Mar-12, 05:22 PM Reply #61 »
Having joined the Racenet IQ this week, I took the opportunity to check out theexpert tips for this great race day. Here are the results as I calculated them, allocating 2 units for winning recommendations and 1 unit for long shots, each way tips and best outsiders:

Tony Brassel's Ultimate Late Mail Tips at Rosehill:

16 tips:- 1 winner ---- Loss of 19.4 units

Mark Guest's Flemington Tips:

9 tips:- 2 winners ---- Loss of 4.40 units

The Weekend Best Bets from the Team Of Experts, Flemington, Rosehill and Eagle Farm:

Flemington - 12 tips:- 2 winners ---- Loss of 10.4 units
Rosehill  -  6 tips:-  1 winner ------ Loss of 4.60 units
Eagle Farm - 2 tips:-   1 winner --- Gain of 1.40 units

Long Shot Tips from Laurie Sainsbury:

4 tips   -  No winners ---  Loss of 4 units

Overall Loss of 41.4 units from 49 tips, including 35 best bets and 14 value selections. Not a great day!!

Offline Jeunes

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« 2022-Mar-12, 06:06 PM Reply #62 »
Great update Rads. Interesting statistics but they will spin it soon again like they did with Brasselís top 5 having winners amongst them.   :lol:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2022-Mar-12, 06:07 PM Reply #63 »
Donít you mean Monty 🤔

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2022-Mar-13, 10:01 AM Reply #64 »


No one even gets close to Monty as the most reliable media tipster -- unbeatable for Sydney but, like everyone else, handicapped by RVL in relating formguides to outcomes of raffle-ticket racing.

Offline Dave

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« 2022-Mar-15, 03:47 PM Reply #65 »
I think the art of winning is finding your own "niche" I do not even try to pick a winner, I look for horses that are overs/value and back them, now when I say overs, my concept of overs is a lot different to most "experts" I have heard some say that they rate a horse a 6/4 chance and they can get 7/4 and they consider that to be "overs"  to me that is ridiculous, that assumes that racing/punting is an exact science, I look for horses that I consider a 6/4 chance that I can get at least $4 I need a big buffer zone....and they are always there
as an extreme example of what I look for and how I find them, when Lunar Fox won the Australian Guineas I marked him down as a $15/$20 chance and backed him several times with the top odds being $500 (499/1) with Betfair, his recent run was ordinary but if you look at the forest and not the trees, this horse had had 2 previous "target" races, the VRC Sires which he won at good odds, beating Ole Kirk, then his next "target" was the Caulfield Guineas,(which was won by Ole Kirk) where he ran 5th not beat far but beating home Tagaloa who was Fav for the Australian Guineas, while Ole Kirk was well into single figures,  so when he has a target he runs well, the next target was the Australian Guineas, I just looked at similar races, the rest had no relevance except to hide his "real" form, so if you just look at the Sires and the Caulfield Guineas, against pretty much the same field,  what would you rate him? certainly nowhere near triple figures

Just today I backed a winner (Tinnie Winnie) I took $8.50 ($4.63 after deductions) it won and SP'd at $2.80
Another that I thought would start much shorter was Custodian in the Black Opal, I had $200 on him at $21, then laid him at $4.30 to get back $600 if he lost, so my worse result was a $3 winner($400 profit)
I would never tell anyone how to suck eggs, do what works for you, I never bet on anything but Thoroughbreds, cos that would be like gambling for real, I know what I know.....and I know what I don't know!


Offline Rad

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« 2022-Mar-15, 04:43 PM Reply #66 »
I backed a horse yesterday at Warrnambool called Hai Sun. She has won at Caulfield in an open fillies race during her last prep on a soft track. From a strong stable, she had a trial after a spell, then was beaten just 2 lengths first up at Ballarat at $2.50 where both the 2nd and 3rd placegetters had since won. In a restricted BM64 at Warrnambool on a soft track again, she started $8!! - she should have been favourite. These are the opportunities to look for ... they do happen

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2022-Mar-15, 05:50 PM Reply #67 »


Dave deserves to be followed

The crowds were back at Flemington on Saturday, but you could have heard a pin drop in the mounting yard after the longest-priced Group 1 winner in Australian history, Lunar Fox, prevailed in the Australian Guineas at the odds of $301.

Offline Dave

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« 2022-Mar-15, 06:08 PM Reply #68 »
Pete you didn't read or understand my point, did you? as far as I was concerned I backed a $15 winner, the fact that they bet 300/1 was a mistake on their part....and they bet 499/1 on Betfair.....but the price was WRONG....that was the point......
That was an extreme example of what I was trying to convey......if you always get overs you will win long term, if you always follow others, no matter how good they are....you will always lose long term while they will win by backing the same horses!

Offline nemisis

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« 2022-Mar-15, 06:34 PM Reply #69 »
What sort of ratings would have Lunar Fox  a $15 chance???.....he was beaten 13 lengths in the CS Hayes after enjoying a soft run on the rails.
In The Guineas he sat out wide with his mouth open and obliterated the same opposition.....same track, same track rating just 200 metres further.
He took a rating of 78 into the Guineas and came out with a rating of 100....in 2 weeks :o

It was truly unbelievable stuff and not helped by the trainer's past indiscretions.

Offline fours

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« 2022-Mar-15, 10:17 PM Reply #70 »
nemisis,

Dave is showing you something about trainers intentions yet you persist with the mug ratings mistakes....

Fours

Offline nemisis

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« 2022-Mar-16, 06:42 AM Reply #71 »
Dave is just doing a bit of what you are good at fours.
Being clever after the event.

You thought Lunar Fox was a mare, for goodness sake.

Go back and watch Lunar Fox in the CS Hayes where he started at $151.
Then come back and tell me anything that you can see that he would indicate how he would perform 2 weeks later.
Mouth open, pulling for rein and taking off....looked like he was on rocket fuel.

Yes 2 weeks....have you ever done any training?????

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2022-Mar-16, 07:41 AM Reply #72 »


Dave is getting interesting


.......................... Dave is showing you something about trainers intentions

Just what is implied by Dave's observations ............ that someone set up and pulled-off a complex sting, but no one was told to 'get on'.

I think we would benefit from a Friday-thread -- 'Dave's tips'

Offline Gintara

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« 2022-Mar-16, 08:00 AM Reply #73 »
Pete and there in lays the problem - before the event.

Plenty of good people on the forum who put out stuff before the event  (you would do well to follow the '100 tip' thread and follow Rad's bets) whilst others just want to puff their chest out sagely telling you where you were wrong or what you should be doing after the event.  :bulb:

Offline Dave

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« 2022-Mar-16, 02:32 PM Reply #74 »
nemesis I am going to something I rarely do and that is explain something to a fool,
of course you could not have Lunar Fox a $15 chance on his run in the CS Hayes but if you actually read what I said you wouldn't be the fool you appear to be!
There were only 2 runs that were relevant, the sires and the Caulfield Guineas, they were his only 2 previous runs in "Grand Finals" the Australian Guineas was his 3rd Grand Final,
 I was comparing apples with apples while you compare apples with pumpkins and wonder why you just don't get "IT"
If his two previous runs were a win in the Sires and a 5th in the Caulfield Guineas, what price would he be? single figures for sure.......
Trainers do it all the time, you can't have a horse at it's peak in the lead up races or it won't be at it's peak in the "Grand Final" this horse peaked for the 3rd time for 2 wins and a close up in a Group One,  if it did peak it is was more like an $8 chance, I was exaggerating with the $15 at $300 plus it was a MUST bet
as I said this was an extreme case to make a point....but they are there every day!
and Pete don't try to read at all, you wouldn't pass a Kindy test
that is the end of story,


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