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Offline arthur

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« 2019-Jul-05, 03:27 PM Reply #25 »
Another good reason for being on track . . although you can only be on one track at one time

The likelihood of a late scratching will be evident earlier

Not unlike my mention on another thread of hitting the cash-back button on a shortener L-Scr rather than just passively getting a refund

These opportunities are rare but if you are aware of what to do, they can be useful



Going back to my very first day at the races at a very well attended meeting at Albion Park, there was a protest my mentor told me to grab every ticket that I could find on the ground. He did likewise.

We managed to scoop up about 30 quid in tickets on the second horse . . because he 'knew what to do' . .



PROTEST DISMISSED  :sad:

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Jul-05, 03:37 PM Reply #26 »




Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-05, 04:01 PM Reply #27 »


Another good reason for being on track


....... there is never a good reason for being 'on track' ........... especially if hoping for a late scratching to blow-out the O&E dividend.

Online jfc

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« 2019-Jul-05, 05:06 PM Reply #28 »
Examining the O&E for the 396 dog races to date.

Only 325 declared a dividend!

18% of races couldn't even snag 50 cents!

But no Jackpots!

Where the bloody hell are they!

        Wins Payout Loss
Odds  86 250.4 -74.6 22.95%
Evens 88 270.0 -55.0 16.92%
Split 221 281.0 -44.0 13.54%
Total 395 801.4 -173.6 17.81%


17.81% is insanely higher than the claimed 7%.

I defy anyone to explain how this mathematically possible!

Alternatively look at the average dividend of $2.46. Versus expected $2.79.

Some very serious questions need to be answered.


Offline arthur

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« 2019-Jul-05, 05:19 PM Reply #29 »
...... there is never a good reason for being 'on track'

Well Peter, like the bloke that said surfing is better than sex . . you mustn't be doing it right  :whistle:

I've been going to the track for nearly 60 years and have been betting with the corps for about 10 . . No comparison

I could list a dozen good reasons for being 'on track' . . and hoping for a late scratching doesn't even feature

Online jfc

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« 2019-Jul-06, 07:16 AM Reply #30 »
HarmersHaven and all,

Very late scratchings at the barrier will provide opportunities for some that are aware of the changes to the numbers and are quick off the mark.

Fours
By now most would be aware of what an embarrassment you are, so I don't see why you need to present even more evidence of your incompetence.

You clearly have no understanding of how O&E works.

Simply put there are no opportunities to gain an O&E edge.

Because the O&E Odds are predominantly determined by Quinella Odds.

So Scratchings have no effect on O&E.


Offline arthur

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« 2019-Jul-06, 08:30 AM Reply #31 »
When betting Odds/ Evens @ fixed odds with a corporate, there is an obvious advantage in anticipating, or knowing of a L.Scr. before the market framer

I don't know how this tote O/ E works either, but I cannot see it being competitive with a Fixed Odds alternative . .

which I think that 4's was referring to

Online jfc

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« 2019-Jul-06, 10:04 AM Reply #32 »
The POC was the idea of state governments not the TAB. It was suggested and first implemented by SA now in all states at varying amounts

The only dispute I know of is in Queensland where the dispute is how the calculation is derived for the TAB.
That is incorrect.

Tabcorp pushed for the POCT because it was getting thrashed by Corporates.

And for some strange reason there was a phenomenal increase in Tabcorp's interest the Isle of Man which is immune from the POCT. From the moment the POCT reared its brainless head.

As for this O&E caper, the subtext from Tabcorp and its cohorts is that is promoting the cloaca out of this dubious bet type to try and draw attention away from a disastrous Tote performance.





Offline fours

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« 2019-Jul-06, 10:25 AM Reply #33 »
jfc,

My post was based on Harmershaven's post of combinations available for a given field size.

I am so embarrassed when i get the first four and no one else does - even the Z man.... You are onto something!

Fours

Online jfc

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« 2019-Jul-06, 11:10 AM Reply #34 »
As lame an effort as I could expect from you.

What a pity you couldn't have responded with the general formulae for HH's cumbersome effort.

I won't be holding my breath for you to provide that solution now.

Instead you produced your rubbish wrongly suggesting that you can get an Edge with Tabcorp O&Es.

Now Zeljko typically doesn't play F4s.

Instead he waits for mugs like you to lose and build up Jackpots.

Tabcorp now holds those Jackpots until it builds to a grotesque amount.

Whereupon it puts it on a major race and thus offers Zeljko more free 100s of large.

Offline fours

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« 2019-Jul-06, 11:57 AM Reply #35 »
jfc,

You are such a social misfit.

People were having a nice conversation and all of a sudden you barge in with your ego problems.

Also you have merely asserted I am wrong - you have not proven it.

I won't be doing the bet type at all as it simply can't beat my FF edge and there are other lovely things in life to bother with.....

Fours

Online jfc

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« 2019-Jul-06, 05:19 PM Reply #36 »
My bet is that was fours' admission he can't solve the general formulae in question.

I'll leave that easy problem for others to try, but here is a cute corollary.

Consider markets where Odds = Evens.

And let H = 1/2 the Field size.

Here is the proportion of Splits starting from H=2.

2/3
3/5
4/7
5/9
6/11
7/13
8/15
.....
∞ /(2*∞-1)


or H/(2*H-1)

So for a fully occupied dog race 4/7 of the combinations are Splits.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-06, 08:55 PM Reply #37 »

Arthur could tell us all a story
   
       I've been going to the track for nearly 60 years


Arthur's age must be some  70+ . Arthur must live close to his track.

Punters had no option but to be on track if they were serious  -- I would never miss the big days in Sydney.

Times have changed -- things are different -- technology brought 'live' racing into the home with betting on the net making it convenient across the nation.

.............. these days Arthur would be at a disadvantage being on any track anywhere .. it is no place to be.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-06, 09:10 PM Reply #38 »

Dancing and kicking are different sports


Inexplicably some commentators have lost the plot.

Dancing around with numerical semantics about O&E misses the point.

.............. the perpetrators of this O&E hoax need to feel the slipper being put in,  accept it is a nonsense and step well back from the marketing hype they trotted out a few days ago.

.......... the O&E bet will not attract the younger set, its net new 'takeout' will fund nothing of significance ... and on and on

Offline ratsack

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« 2019-Jul-06, 10:10 PM Reply #39 »
jfc,



Also you have merely asserted I am wrong - you have not proven it.


we can't prove anything because you never produce BEFORE  the event ?
ok pick a race any race , or meeting or month I will go head to head with you
win , place , tri , 1st 4
time for you to put up
good luck

Offline ratsack

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« 2019-Jul-06, 10:12 PM Reply #40 »
jfc,

You are such a social misfit.

People were having a nice conversation and all of a sudden you barge in with your ego problems.

Also you have merely asserted I am wrong - you have not proven it.

I won't be doing the bet type at all as it simply can't beat my FF edge and there are other lovely things in life to bother with.....

Fours
I won't be doing the bet type at all as it simply can't beat my FF edge and there are other lovely things in life to bother with.....

lol

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-06, 11:10 PM Reply #41 »

Please stay on track

................ outbreaks of apparent personal conflict -- real or contrived -- have no place on this forum -- except as it is a play by the ring-masters to divert attention and close down threads they do not like.

There are some generally disruptive but consistent contributors which any sensible person might suspect they are dupes for the 'powers' to create diversions to close down debates.

These clowns are well known -- they are a disgrace to the industry.

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Jul-07, 08:25 AM Reply #42 »
Arthur could tell us all a story . . Arthur could tell a few;but if you don't open your mouth, you don't catch flies
   
Arthur's age must be some  70+ . . Actually it's 80 -

 Arthur must live close to his track. . A lot of meetings I attend are over 400km round trip


Times have changed -- things are different . . Sadly I've noticed

technology brought 'live' racing into the home . . Technology also brought it to the racetrack; and I've mastered(?) the 'dit-dit-machine' sufficient to my needs
 


.............. these days Arthur would be at a disadvantage being on any track anywhere .. it is no place to be . . Obviously Arthur disputes this



Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-07, 09:55 AM Reply #43 »


News from the Druitt Street bunker?


Last week saw the usual suspects basking in media applause for their announcement of the O&E bet and its underlying proven strategy, substituting 'hope' for predictable reality.

On Monday the team in the bunker will have collated the numbers showing how much was bet over the weekend on the O&E option.  As is these are hidden in the quinella pools.

On Tuesday the independent racing media should be reporting the fruit of their followup inquiries  -- will they?


Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Jul-07, 11:27 AM Reply #44 »
"Arthur's age must be some  70+ . . Actually it's 80 -"

Isn't that one and the same?  70 plus = 80 minus.  ??

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Jul-07, 11:42 AM Reply #45 »
It depends on which reform school you went to . .  :chin:

Offline fours

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« 2019-Jul-07, 12:02 PM Reply #46 »
ratsac,

I believe that you and I are 3 each for wins in the $400 tipping comps albeit my winning totals put yours in the shade by a large margin.

As for never putting up before a race you need to study the form a little more closely. I have several threads showing a good profit on win tips before the race - SEVERAL.

Possibly more note worthy however is DD's claim that what I was saying was not possible when I declared that using First Fours to cover 3rd IN a NTD race, or fourth place otherwise, could increase both the strike rate AND the over all returns compared to 100% of the bet being place only. Now ratsac I succeeded straight away in DD's Brisbane racing in proving that on this forum.

So ratsac I have already put up and YOU in fact have the catching up to do on this forum. But we all know that already.

Fours


« Last Edit: 2019-Jul-07, 12:05 PM by fours »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-07, 09:12 PM Reply #47 »

Probably contrived but anyway unnecessary

........... it is not fair to be corrupting a needed discussion with personally intense private conflicts -- as with facebook, these days the option should be open to forum administrators to shift personal rifts to a 'personal disputes' thread.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-08, 06:57 AM Reply #48 »


News from the TAB turnover statistics

Early days of course but those spruiking the appeal of the new O&E bet will draw little comfort from the not-much-different quinella pools on Saturday.

News from the Druitt Street bunker?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-08, 01:20 PM Reply #49 »


'jfc' asked some interesting questions about some facts


                Wins Payout  Loss
Odds  86 250.4 -74.6 22.95%
Evens 88 270.0 -55.0 16.92%
Split 221 281.0 -44.0 13.54%
Total 395 801.4 -173.6 17.81%



18% net loss higher than 7% -- and average dividend of $2.5 less than expected $2.8

One question is about where these figures for these particular bets come from -- and will 'jfc' continue to publish them?

Another concerns the obligation on RNSW/Tabcorp to make available their 'true' expectations for the net %loss on these bets -- this figuring would have been an important part of the proposal developed and accepted.

In that sense the proud parading of '7%' was misleading.

Perhaps RNSW could now make good on this initial shortfall from 'transparency' and let us have, for a race-field of 12,  indicative probabilities of the different O-E-S outcomes and on-average 'final' dividends for each of the outcomes.

.........perhaps not of course, so soon after the initial curve ball  -- so would a mathematician out there like to fill the gap.








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