Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-01, 08:32 AM

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-01, 08:32 AM


ROULETTE RACING


The conceptual degradation of the spirit of racing (and the assessed  intellect of punters) continues apace with a new TAB bet-type allowing punters the simple choice of a bet on the TAB number of the winning runner being an odd-number or an even-number.

Odds vs Evens lets you Bet whether an odd numbered, or an even number Horse or Greyhound will win the race.

One question is about how much the punter will lose on a bet split each way -- about the number of dead-heat and other  'zeros' on this new wheel-of-chance.

For many punters wanting a flutter among friends over a beer at the club, the question becomes an intelligence test -- leave the table to place a taxed-bet or just convert the idea to a game of visual two-up (and taking away any 'zero' on the wheel with a simple agreement to let dead-heated bets stand for the next race).

With any luck the idea of 'keeping the money on the table' will catch on and extend to the punters defense against the consequences of the deception of cluttered  'inflated-field' racing when prizemoney is paid down to 10th.

Hospitality staff that have done the 'responsible gambling' training will now have an objective criterion -- the self-identified someones so 'irresponsible' they cannot find another patron willing to match their bet.

One might also wonder what is happening in the Druitt Street bunker if the admins think this new bet type will deliver more money for racing.

Let us pray!


Odds and evens bet to produce more revenue

Racing NSW will launch the odds-and-evens bet type on Tuesday, with the new revenue stream to be announced at the same time as a boost to prizemoney at country carnivals.

The new bet type will also provide more funding for all three codes to sustain the prizemoney advances of recent years.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-02, 09:47 AM

Not so fast Sherlock -- the new 'odds and evens' bet is not so simple

It is actually quite complex and that will limit its appeal -- as will the 'take'  from the merged quinella pool (20% ?).

The risk of auto-suggestion remains -- that among friends the best option will still be a simple either-way matched wager, stakes placed on the table.

Details of the new 'odds and evens' bet type are now available on the NSW TAB site.

It turns on the 'number' of the runners finishing first and second:

Odds & Evens is a pari-mutuel bet type that gives you the ability to bet on whether the first and second official placegetters in a race will both be odd numbers, even numbers or split.

On the web site there is a wheel of fortune to spin and get a suggestion among the three options.

Can’t decide? Change ............. to the wheel view on digital channels and spin the wheel for a randomised suggestion!


Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-02, 12:45 PM

Takeout from the new-bet pool to be 7%


RNSW says:

Importantly, the Bet type has a much lower take out than other bet types, hence giving higher dividends to the punter.

There are three commission takeout rates for 'local pools' , for co-mingled international pools, and for Hong Kong


Win   14.5%   14.5%   17.5%
Place   14.25%   14.25%   17.5%
Exact 2nd   14.5%   14.5%   N/A
Odds & Evens   7%   7%   N/A
Quinella   17.50%   25%   17.5%
Exacta   20%   25%   N/A
Trio   21%   25%   N/A
Trifecta   21%   25%   25%
Doubles   20%   25%   17.5%
First 4   22.5%   25%   N/A
Quaddie   20%   25%   N/A
Duet   14.5%   25%   17.5%
footyTab   25%   25%   N/A
BIG6   25%   25%   N/A

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-02, 03:30 PM


The view from on high

“It’s an entry point (product) for people that don’t understand racing,” Racing NSW CEO Peter V’landys said.

“Our biggest competition is sport. You don’t need too much intellect to have a sports bet – you either follow St George or you follow the (Canterbury) Bulldogs so you just back one or the other.

“We need an easy bet type for people to come into the racing industry and hopefully they get more involved.

“With the digital age this is really attractive to the younger generation. The whole focus has been in attracting the new generation, the under 35s and this product is for them.

“The rusted on punters will use it and I’ll tell you why they will use it is because there’s a very low take out so they can certainly play it to their advantage.

“It’s aimed at a completely new audience under 35.”
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-02, 07:58 PM

Will there be any transparency about betting turnover on the O&E bet option?


Racing NSW.... hopes the product will fund the $7.5 million Golden Eagle at Rosehill.

Racing NSW... said the product was designed to attract the younger demographic -- "The bet type is not only simple, but it is entertaining," -- we are looking to reach out and access that younger demographic ..... people who may not have access to the detailed race form ..l....."

These stated 'expectations', among other tripe, are nonsense -- any evidence of a O&E bet pool being substantial would be met by the syndicates exploiting the pool with algorithm-bets placed automatically just before the jump.

Maybe let the dust settle.

I trust the 'independent' racing media are choking on their dedication to the party line -- however restrained it may be.

It is surely no sure thing that the independent racing media will, in due course, demand any accountability for the overall consequences.

The predictable enough reaction on Racenet and Punters.com is hardly indicative of punter confidence in any inclination for RNSW and TAB to stop self-serving and give a fair go.

Exclusively negative knee-jerk feedback should concern racing administrators -- it may be prescient.

The integrity of the industry is being destroyed.

Already South Australia and Queensland have stepped well back from financial worship of local racing.

Almost every 'innovation' affecting racing wagering in recent years has been about denigrating 'the form' and enhancing 'rough-random' race outcomes.

The concept of fairly informed wagering on fairly run races has given way to some preference for mainly random nonsense aimed at entertaining addicted punters.

The 7% takeout is also presumably aimed at diverting gambling dollars from other 'simple' but more expensive bet options offered by others. 

One might ask why a state government would allow this -- and whether Tabcorp may be entitled to compensation for the likely diversion of bets from simulated 'backside' racing which it bought from RNSW.

Among other things there seems to be no comprehension of overall restraint on the automatic entitlement of the racing industry to additional funding of an industry that is already fairly described as 'bloated beyond belief'.

The featherbedding of rural racing in particular shifts 'city money' into needy country racing electorates -- but  it is hard to accept that such 'off budget' transfers of racing-dollars is the best use of this money.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-03, 09:01 AM
How is that crap from V'landys considered legal!

Deception about truncation which can add more than another 7% to the Rake.

Encouraging problem gambling - instead of 1 bet a week on your team, lose 100s of idiotic ones.

Roulette rake is far lower.

Handicap betting on AFL at Betfair or best of Corporates is a far better bet.

If there is a way of exploiting O&E stay tuned for Manx Pranx.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-03, 10:06 AM


Ripley was never this good --the dust will not settle

The astonishing flow of hype about the new O&E bet option continued this morning in the papers.

Consider these extracts:

The TAB has guaranteed the $10m in revenue to the racing codes from the new bet type, which it is hoped will appeal to a young audience. The model for Odds and Evens betting means the commission from it is paid directly to the racing industry. There is an expectation it might return more than $10m in its first year.

The TAB will take half the commission it takes on other TAB bets and the other half will be paid directly to the racing industry.

Adam Rytenskild, from the TAB, said a lot of testing and customer research was done and Racing NSW ...... had no doubt it would generate enough revenue to pay for the three rich races. “I think it will generate more,” .........“It’s an entry point for people who don’t understand racing and it’s a simple bet.

The Odds and Evens bet type targeted at the young adult market to claw back money wagered on sport. “We are confident that it will be popular with punters and cover the costs of those races and maybe more” ............ "The focus groups on this bet have been very exciting". “In sport, you either follow one side or the other and it is easy to understand which team you are betting on.

The boost to country racing was endorsed by Minister for Better Regulation and Innovation ............. who has racing as part of his portfolio “Racing is more than just an event in regional communities, it’s part of the culture, which is why we want to continue to make racing as enjoyable and accessible as possible”


One can only hope that the clearly independent racing media corp will follow the unfolding reality and report frankly.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jul-03, 11:28 AM
With all of Mairs cut & pasting from racenet it’s no surprise he left out the logical comments from their writer Clinton Payne

Yet another dishonest representation from the self promoting Mair

Oh, and Payne is 100% correct.

“For all the narks out there, there is a generation of younger punters that are choosing to spend much of their wagering dollar on sport, mostly overseas sport I might add, like basketball, international football and the like.

How much of that money do you think flows back into racing?

Now what about all those people that play Keno “heads or tails”, a similar product, how much of that turnover heads to racing?

So, the three codes in NSW get together with TAB, come up with a product to try and counter the competitors and the “rusted on punters” scream and howl on all social platforms that it’s the end of racing.

The last time I looked at the FAQs – it didn’t say us rusted on punters have to have a bet using this new product – so why do we care?

Why, because we’re a bunch of whingers that shout from the rafters at everything and never offer anything that might one day help us be relevant as the world evolves”

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-03, 02:28 PM
Ying and yang,

Remains to be seen if bringing in new punters ( dumbed down ones ) is balanced by the losses from existing pools which may in time be replenished as the new punters learn more.

Can we really expect much more from the fashions and food tent types?

Fours
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jul-03, 03:01 PM
.

Can we really expect much more from the fashions and food tent types?

Fours

Sure can, they’re cashed up and love throwing it around
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-03, 09:37 PM



The ideal of a free press is a fiction in main-stream reporting of racing industry issues.


Do not let contrived 'complexity' overwhelm 'simplicity' and the general idea of a fair go for all.

It its likely practical appeal the O&E[&Split] bet option as a simple 'heads and tails' proposal will be confused by the conversion of a 50/50 offer to a 1 in 3 choice.

There are slim chances of most people in a club properly understanding the complexities after a few drinks.

Conversely, well-connected sober betting syndicates will profit from automated 'late' bets informed by algorithm-systems -- the syndicate managers could well be in the same club as the others, needing to do nothing to benefit from their technological advantage.

In that sense, these bet offers are designed to take advantage of most while benefiting insider associates of Tabcorp (and possibly entitled to rebates on bets placed)

The hype about the 7% takeout -- and the associated tripe -- does not meet the pub-test of transparent disclosure.

In particular, it is no longer necessary for Tabcorp to round-down dividends to the lower '10 cents' for on-line punters but doing so adds some 5 percentage points to the 7% 'headline rate' -- making the true-take from the pool more like 12%.

Both sleight-of-hands should be well understood by the professional racing media -- and reported frankly.

.................... as for a compliant contribution on Racenet, defending the new bet ....... the writer's declared allegiance to 'OUR INDUSTRY' compromises the independence and objectivity we are entitled to expect from the racing media corp.

The racing media is clearly not, but should  be, stridently independent of the racing industry.

One problem with the racing industry is the ever-present sense that its associated media dependents are beholden to its administrators.

Also ever present is the sense that being so beholden is influenced by the administrators funding racing media services.

The ideal of a free press is a fiction in main-stream reporting of racing industry issues.

This is  intolerable -- well illustrated by the unqualified repetition of O&E hype-tripe from industry administrators.




Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Dave on 2019-Jul-04, 01:01 PM
Not being interested in this silly bet I haven't studied it's viability but........just the line "You don’t need too much intellect to have a sports bet"  while I wholeheartedly agree with the premise that sports bettors don't use much intellect(probably don't have any to use) plus the fact that the TAB has punters betting on cartoon races (the last time I entered a TAB anyway and I doubt they would have changed)shows the disdain they feel for all punters..........the question is a moral one, is it right to take advantage of those who are intellectually handicapped just because you can???
So basically I have to agree with everything Pete has said on this subject
wily, Clinton Payne has a vested interest, anything you read on Racenet is probably cash for comment......take it with a grain of salt
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jul-04, 04:35 PM
.........the question is a moral one, is it right to take advantage of those who are intellectually handicapped just because you can???
So basically I have to agree with everything Pete has said on this subject
wily, Clinton Payne has a vested interest, anything you read on Racenet is probably cash for comment......take it with a grain of salt

Cant agree Dave. There’s plenty of moral issues to get our knickers in a knot over.  This isn’t one of them
If people want to play, they can. I won’t but plenty will. I certainly don’t think those that play trackside or heads tails keno are intellectually handicapped. Whatever floats your boat is my attitude

I leave that moral high ground nonsense to Mair to pontificate over as he strives for industry relevance.

No one is being taken advantage of
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-04, 08:08 PM


Show me the money

I am reluctant to simply put aside a 'Tabcorp guarantee':

The TAB has guaranteed the $10m in revenue to the racing codes from the new bet type

.......... but I am wondering how this new bet type will generate a net new takeout of some 10 million in a few months.

The 'declared intention' to also offer the bet on the Victorian TAB is interesting in the sense that, in Victoria, Tabcorp does not get the revenue from 'rounding down' -- these funds are accumulated in some 'fund' at RVL.

It is not well understood that in NSW about half of the float-value of the TAB in the mid 1990s was the capital value of the entitlement to 'roundings' given to the new company.

Such 'roundings' are an unnecessary rort that shows contempt for punters placing bets --  like O&E -- most likely to pay win dividends under $2.

......  there is much for the independent racing media to chew on here!


Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jul-04, 08:14 PM

Show me the money

I am reluctant to simply put aside a 'Tabcorp guarantee':
!

Given their past dealings with you I reckon they couldn’t get a stuff  :biggrin:
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Dave on 2019-Jul-04, 09:15 PM
Your're kidding aren't you wily? There are plenty of moral issues to get our knickers in a knot over and this isn't one of them??
first to take you to task........I think it is a moral issue but I don't give a damn about people who watch/bet or are involved in other sports........so therefore your analogy that my knickers are in a knot over it is way off the mark

I do think anyone who has these types of bets or anyone who bets on sports outside of Horse racing have a Mental deficiency
The TAB and Racing NSW sets it self up as a Moral guardian, and a responsible gambling advocate, this could not be further from the truth.....as evidenced by Cartoon racing.....if that isn't to attract the lowest common denominator then please tell what is?......
With this bet even in the advertising they say it is for people who lack the intellect to understand backing a horse to win.........I was punting when I was 9 or 10.....it ain't rocket science
As I said I don't care.............just as I don't care about legal prostitution but it would be hypocritical if the Catholic Church was given control of Prostitution in NSW wouldn't it?? Prostitution would not be immoral but the church would be in that scenario, wouldn't it??
I am not against this bet.......but the attitude that someone has to rob these poor morons it may as well be the TAB......at the same time they are making other Bookies stop giving away free money because that encourages problem Gambling??.......Can't you see the hypocrisy? Or are you so blinded by your dislike of Peter that you would not agree with him if he said the sky is Blue and the Grass is green??
Good luck to them if they can empty the pockets of intellectually handicapped.......not like it is going to a good cause, it is going to help those who want to Rob you and me and every other punter......
I will stand to be corrected but I believe the POC tax was the TAB's idea and they refuse to pay it!!
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: sobig on 2019-Jul-04, 09:23 PM
Although tabcorp did not oppose the POC it was suggested and implemented by state governments starting with SA

and now in every state.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: sobig on 2019-Jul-04, 09:28 PM
The POC was the idea of state governments not the TAB. It was suggested and first implemented by SA now in all states at varying amounts

The only dispute I know of is in Queensland where the dispute is how the calculation is derived for the TAB.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-04, 10:07 PM

Can someone do the math please?

I am not very numerate.

As I read it there are 3 outcomes so a winning dividend should be, on average, about $1.90 (less the rounding)-- ie if $1 was bet on each outcome the return would be, in total, some $2.80 (less the rounding).

........ casual perusal of the actual dividends declared show some are well in excess of this expectation.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2019-Jul-04, 10:27 PM
That may ring true if there are equal amounts of (actual) combinations in the race.

ie 4-horse race has combinations 12, 13, 14, 23, 24, 34 or S-O-S-S-E-S or 1E-1O-4S
5-horse race reads 12, 13, 14, 15, 23, 24, 25, 34, 35, 45 or S-O-S-O-S-E-S-S-O-S OR 1E-3O-6S

The number/spread of actual/live combinations is dependant on how the nominations/scratchings fall, never mind the added complexity of actual odds of each combo.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-05, 08:30 AM
HarmersHaven and all,

Very late scratchings at the barrier will provide opportunities for some that are aware of the changes to the numbers and are quick off the mark.

Fours
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-05, 09:27 AM

The promotional hype does not ring true

For most of us quickly scanning the fields and the odds the choice will be played against the smarter plays of syndicates with systems and automated bet placements.

The younger-set target market may not be pleased if they just become more feed-fodder for the professionals.

Even so it is unlikely that O&E will attract a sufficient pool to be worth exploiting.

It will take a couple of weeks to get a feel for O&E bet pools by comparing the new merged pools with 'last years' quinella pools.

I am at a loss to understand the initial promotional overkill.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: HarmersHaven on 2019-Jul-05, 12:20 PM
HarmersHaven and all,

Very late scratchings at the barrier will provide opportunities for some that are aware of the changes to the numbers and are quick off the mark.

Fours

Not sure I follow, and I've spent some hours trying to work it through.

My understanding is the O/E/S is a pari-m bet, not a fixed odds bet - surely any late adjustments will be reflected in the final dividend declared?

Or is the suggestion here that it's a fixed odds bet based on the Q pool (aggregated) approximates at time of bet placement?
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: arthur on 2019-Jul-05, 12:31 PM
Odds Vs EVENS are fixed odds opportunities with the corps

TAB would have to be to be competitive
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-05, 01:14 PM
Harmershaven,

I am talking about scratchings seconds before the jump.

No time for 99% of punters to adjust to the new true odds versus whats on offer in the parimutual pool. That 99% will largely be eve further in the dark than they were before the scratching.

For example in your 5 and 4 horse field outcomes above if a 5 horse field gets number 3 scratched by the vet and they jump ......even outcomes remain 1 BUT their % of the outcomes has jumped to 16.66% from 10% AND has become great value IF the price was fair beforehand for the 5 horse field.

Fours
PS Harmershaven - no money comes out of this particular pool after a late scratching as long as the three outcomes remain possible BUT the relative % of each outcome can change drastically after the scratchings and therefore enable value to emerge OR disappear.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: arthur on 2019-Jul-05, 03:27 PM
Another good reason for being on track . . although you can only be on one track at one time

The likelihood of a late scratching will be evident earlier

Not unlike my mention on another thread of hitting the cash-back button on a shortener L-Scr rather than just passively getting a refund

These opportunities are rare but if you are aware of what to do, they can be useful



Going back to my very first day at the races at a very well attended meeting at Albion Park, there was a protest my mentor told me to grab every ticket that I could find on the ground. He did likewise.

We managed to scoop up about 30 quid in tickets on the second horse . . because he 'knew what to do' . .



PROTEST DISMISSED  :sad:
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Jul-05, 03:37 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/670W1mh0/Arthur.png) (https://postimg.cc/670W1mh0)
(https://i.postimg.cc/GBcrYj1s/The1.png) (https://postimg.cc/GBcrYj1s)
(https://i.postimg.cc/mcrJBpsV/Emu.png) (https://postimg.cc/mcrJBpsV)
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-05, 04:01 PM


Another good reason for being on track


....... there is never a good reason for being 'on track' ........... especially if hoping for a late scratching to blow-out the O&E dividend.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-05, 05:06 PM
Examining the O&E for the 396 dog races to date.

Only 325 declared a dividend!

18% of races couldn't even snag 50 cents!

But no Jackpots!

Where the bloody hell are they!

        Wins Payout Loss
Odds  86 250.4 -74.6 22.95%
Evens 88 270.0 -55.0 16.92%
Split 221 281.0 -44.0 13.54%
Total 395 801.4 -173.6 17.81%


17.81% is insanely higher than the claimed 7%.

I defy anyone to explain how this mathematically possible!

Alternatively look at the average dividend of $2.46. Versus expected $2.79.

Some very serious questions need to be answered.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: arthur on 2019-Jul-05, 05:19 PM
...... there is never a good reason for being 'on track'

Well Peter, like the bloke that said surfing is better than sex . . you mustn't be doing it right  :whistle:

I've been going to the track for nearly 60 years and have been betting with the corps for about 10 . . No comparison

I could list a dozen good reasons for being 'on track' . . and hoping for a late scratching doesn't even feature
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-06, 07:16 AM
HarmersHaven and all,

Very late scratchings at the barrier will provide opportunities for some that are aware of the changes to the numbers and are quick off the mark.

Fours
By now most would be aware of what an embarrassment you are, so I don't see why you need to present even more evidence of your incompetence.

You clearly have no understanding of how O&E works.

Simply put there are no opportunities to gain an O&E edge.

Because the O&E Odds are predominantly determined by Quinella Odds.

So Scratchings have no effect on O&E.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: arthur on 2019-Jul-06, 08:30 AM
When betting Odds/ Evens @ fixed odds with a corporate, there is an obvious advantage in anticipating, or knowing of a L.Scr. before the market framer

I don't know how this tote O/ E works either, but I cannot see it being competitive with a Fixed Odds alternative . .

which I think that 4's was referring to
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-06, 10:04 AM
The POC was the idea of state governments not the TAB. It was suggested and first implemented by SA now in all states at varying amounts

The only dispute I know of is in Queensland where the dispute is how the calculation is derived for the TAB.
That is incorrect.

Tabcorp pushed for the POCT because it was getting thrashed by Corporates.

And for some strange reason there was a phenomenal increase in Tabcorp's interest the Isle of Man which is immune from the POCT. From the moment the POCT reared its brainless head.

As for this O&E caper, the subtext from Tabcorp and its cohorts is that is promoting the cloaca out of this dubious bet type to try and draw attention away from a disastrous Tote performance.




Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-06, 10:25 AM
jfc,

My post was based on Harmershaven's post of combinations available for a given field size.

I am so embarrassed when i get the first four and no one else does - even the Z man.... You are onto something!

Fours
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-06, 11:10 AM
As lame an effort as I could expect from you.

What a pity you couldn't have responded with the general formulae for HH's cumbersome effort.

I won't be holding my breath for you to provide that solution now.

Instead you produced your rubbish wrongly suggesting that you can get an Edge with Tabcorp O&Es.

Now Zeljko typically doesn't play F4s.

Instead he waits for mugs like you to lose and build up Jackpots.

Tabcorp now holds those Jackpots until it builds to a grotesque amount.

Whereupon it puts it on a major race and thus offers Zeljko more free 100s of large.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-06, 11:57 AM
jfc,

You are such a social misfit.

People were having a nice conversation and all of a sudden you barge in with your ego problems.

Also you have merely asserted I am wrong - you have not proven it.

I won't be doing the bet type at all as it simply can't beat my FF edge and there are other lovely things in life to bother with.....

Fours
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-06, 05:19 PM
My bet is that was fours' admission he can't solve the general formulae in question.

I'll leave that easy problem for others to try, but here is a cute corollary.

Consider markets where Odds = Evens.

And let H = 1/2 the Field size.

Here is the proportion of Splits starting from H=2.

2/3
3/5
4/7
5/9
6/11
7/13
8/15
.....
∞ /(2*∞-1)


or H/(2*H-1)

So for a fully occupied dog race 4/7 of the combinations are Splits.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-06, 08:55 PM

Arthur could tell us all a story
   
       I've been going to the track for nearly 60 years


Arthur's age must be some  70+ . Arthur must live close to his track.

Punters had no option but to be on track if they were serious  -- I would never miss the big days in Sydney.

Times have changed -- things are different -- technology brought 'live' racing into the home with betting on the net making it convenient across the nation.

.............. these days Arthur would be at a disadvantage being on any track anywhere .. it is no place to be.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-06, 09:10 PM

Dancing and kicking are different sports


Inexplicably some commentators have lost the plot.

Dancing around with numerical semantics about O&E misses the point.

.............. the perpetrators of this O&E hoax need to feel the slipper being put in,  accept it is a nonsense and step well back from the marketing hype they trotted out a few days ago.

.......... the O&E bet will not attract the younger set, its net new 'takeout' will fund nothing of significance ... and on and on
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: ratsack on 2019-Jul-06, 10:10 PM
jfc,



Also you have merely asserted I am wrong - you have not proven it.


we can't prove anything because you never produce BEFORE  the event ?
ok pick a race any race , or meeting or month I will go head to head with you
win , place , tri , 1st 4
time for you to put up
good luck
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: ratsack on 2019-Jul-06, 10:12 PM
jfc,

You are such a social misfit.

People were having a nice conversation and all of a sudden you barge in with your ego problems.

Also you have merely asserted I am wrong - you have not proven it.

I won't be doing the bet type at all as it simply can't beat my FF edge and there are other lovely things in life to bother with.....

Fours
I won't be doing the bet type at all as it simply can't beat my FF edge and there are other lovely things in life to bother with.....

lol
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-06, 11:10 PM

Please stay on track

................ outbreaks of apparent personal conflict -- real or contrived -- have no place on this forum -- except as it is a play by the ring-masters to divert attention and close down threads they do not like.

There are some generally disruptive but consistent contributors which any sensible person might suspect they are dupes for the 'powers' to create diversions to close down debates.

These clowns are well known -- they are a disgrace to the industry.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: arthur on 2019-Jul-07, 08:25 AM
Arthur could tell us all a story . . Arthur could tell a few;but if you don't open your mouth, you don't catch flies
   
Arthur's age must be some  70+ . . Actually it's 80 -

 Arthur must live close to his track. . A lot of meetings I attend are over 400km round trip


Times have changed -- things are different . . Sadly I've noticed

technology brought 'live' racing into the home . . Technology also brought it to the racetrack; and I've mastered(?) the 'dit-dit-machine' sufficient to my needs
 

.............. these days Arthur would be at a disadvantage being on any track anywhere .. it is no place to be . . Obviously Arthur disputes this


Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-07, 09:55 AM


News from the Druitt Street bunker?


Last week saw the usual suspects basking in media applause for their announcement of the O&E bet and its underlying proven strategy, substituting 'hope' for predictable reality.

On Monday the team in the bunker will have collated the numbers showing how much was bet over the weekend on the O&E option.  As is these are hidden in the quinella pools.

On Tuesday the independent racing media should be reporting the fruit of their followup inquiries  -- will they?

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Jul-07, 11:27 AM
"Arthur's age must be some  70+ . . Actually it's 80 -"

Isn't that one and the same?  70 plus = 80 minus.  ??
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: arthur on 2019-Jul-07, 11:42 AM
It depends on which reform school you went to . .  :chin:
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-07, 12:02 PM
ratsac,

I believe that you and I are 3 each for wins in the $400 tipping comps albeit my winning totals put yours in the shade by a large margin.

As for never putting up before a race you need to study the form a little more closely. I have several threads showing a good profit on win tips before the race - SEVERAL.

Possibly more note worthy however is DD's claim that what I was saying was not possible when I declared that using First Fours to cover 3rd IN a NTD race, or fourth place otherwise, could increase both the strike rate AND the over all returns compared to 100% of the bet being place only. Now ratsac I succeeded straight away in DD's Brisbane racing in proving that on this forum.

So ratsac I have already put up and YOU in fact have the catching up to do on this forum. But we all know that already.

Fours


Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-07, 09:12 PM

Probably contrived but anyway unnecessary

........... it is not fair to be corrupting a needed discussion with personally intense private conflicts -- as with facebook, these days the option should be open to forum administrators to shift personal rifts to a 'personal disputes' thread.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-08, 06:57 AM


News from the TAB turnover statistics

Early days of course but those spruiking the appeal of the new O&E bet will draw little comfort from the not-much-different quinella pools on Saturday.

News from the Druitt Street bunker?
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-08, 01:20 PM


'jfc' asked some interesting questions about some facts


                Wins Payout  Loss
Odds  86 250.4 -74.6 22.95%
Evens 88 270.0 -55.0 16.92%
Split 221 281.0 -44.0 13.54%
Total 395 801.4 -173.6 17.81%



18% net loss higher than 7% -- and average dividend of $2.5 less than expected $2.8

One question is about where these figures for these particular bets come from -- and will 'jfc' continue to publish them?

Another concerns the obligation on RNSW/Tabcorp to make available their 'true' expectations for the net %loss on these bets -- this figuring would have been an important part of the proposal developed and accepted.

In that sense the proud parading of '7%' was misleading.

Perhaps RNSW could now make good on this initial shortfall from 'transparency' and let us have, for a race-field of 12,  indicative probabilities of the different O-E-S outcomes and on-average 'final' dividends for each of the outcomes.

.........perhaps not of course, so soon after the initial curve ball  -- so would a mathematician out there like to fill the gap.






Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Jul-08, 04:46 PM
"Rounding"

Speaking of rounding reminds me of the time I was spending some time out west.

I was I the pub having a beer and a yarn when the bloke I was having a beer with asked me to help rounding up his cattle.

I asked how many he had and he replied " twenty eight".

I helpfully replied "thirty".
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-08, 05:32 PM



The 'correct' answer from the Harris Street and Druitt Street whizzkids is 'twenty' --  'eight' are deducted.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-08, 06:25 PM
Peter,

Not surprisingly your whizz kid is an idiot who has in fact described truncation.

Fours
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Gintara on 2019-Jul-08, 08:51 PM
"Rounding"

Speaking of rounding reminds me of the time I was spending some time out west.

I was I the pub having a beer and a yarn when the bloke I was having a beer with asked me to help rounding up his cattle.

I asked how many he had and he replied " twenty eight".

I helpfully replied "thirty".

Some would say that's union speak for how many are getting paid. 28 turn & 2 no shows go to the kick.  :shutup:
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-08, 09:16 PM

'fours'

.......... is in ever present danger of being relegated to where he apparently belongs ..... with other' like minded' members craving attention with noise but nothing useful to say.

I do wonder if the sponsors of the forum encourage their input to a forum in decline.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-08, 09:59 PM
Peter,

You are so far from reality it is not funny.

An Act of Parliament was done to get rid of you for a reason.

Fours
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: fours on 2019-Jul-08, 10:03 PM
reflections,

Peter Mair and ratsac want me to shut up and they are peas in a pod but guess what.... I will do just that.

But it's on them.

Fours ( the lurker only from now on )
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-09, 05:56 AM
I'm unaware of any official disclosure of O&E performance but luckily I've concocted a way of figuring it out myself.

For Randwick and Flemington-

$20,267.12 Total
$1,125.95 Average per Race
3.5% of Merged Pool

Curiously the 1st Randwick Race was 8.37%.

Flemington 7 was worst with only 1.679%.

All of the 1st 3 Races in both were > 4.799%.

So obviously the later races were well below average.

V'landys et al might have to call out for Doctor Spinner.


Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-09, 06:58 PM

O&E or E&O misunderstood

................ last week everyone, not least the conscripted media, was taken for a ride by racing administrators...... what was said was never credible ............. it is not likely to ever become so ...... and it was not even 1 April!

The usual use of the term 'O&E' is errors and omissions excepted

Errors and omissions excepted is a phrase used in an attempt to reduce legal liability for potentially incorrect or incomplete information .............

............ it seeks to make a statement that information cannot be relied upon, or may have changed by the time of use.

It is also used ...........to state that—to the best of the supplier's knowledge—the information is correct, but that they will not be held responsible if an error has been committed.


.... luckily the promotion had an established escape clause!
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-10, 07:11 AM
Onto the O&E Wheel of Folly.

It appears to be incredibly stupid. Purely random 1-1-1. Even a 1-1-2 random pick would be far saner.

As to the displayed Odds.

Odds are available as soon as enough Quinella combinations are backed.

But rather than display those it dags about waiting for an O&E bet before just that pick's Odds gets displayed.

The mugs sucked into this joke might want to avoid very short Odds.

But they obviously lack the skill to calculate that and so resort to the Wheel Odds.

Which of course don't get shown until the first mug bets blind!

For smaller markets this would be extremely tiresome waiting for Odds to finally get shown.

So ~7/8 dog O&E winners are unbacked!

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-11, 07:17 AM
After 1010 dog races, where only 871 paid out, the O&E dividends still hold the same pattern.

Level staking the Field produces-

$2.52 Average Dividend

16.1% Loss!

At first I was suspicious about Tabcorp's Dividend algorithm but I've now checked it seems correct.

And the explanation of this paradox seems to be due to Longshot Bias where Bolters' Losses are far worse than average.

Normally one wouldn't consider (say) a $6 shot a Bolter.

But in O&E that $6 is usually a consolidation of far rougher Quinella Dividends.

And Level Staking such garbage takes one down the road to perdition.

So apparently the excess mug losses are donated to the Quinella Pools which the Manx are then free to manipulate and exploit.


Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-11, 12:07 PM

About fair dealing and deception and trust and mistrust

If the net takeout figures being published by 'jfc' are correct -- that the O&E takeout is double the 7% headline rate or more -- then there would seem to be a reasonable basis for asking Tabcorp and RacingNSW to address the discrepancy -- and more generally for both go back to taws in giving a clear and transparent account of the new bet.

............. and what are we to make of a pool merging process that may not be fair as between the separate bet dividends.

What is appalling is that the 'independent' racing media -- having bought a dummy pass -- are unlikely to both apologise and demand accountability.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-12, 05:54 PM
Looking at O&E Turnover on the major Sydney & Melbourne races over 7 days-

$41,316.06 - or 3.48% of the Merged Pools.

Zerafa claimed NSW Quinella Turnover was $270 million last year.

7% of 3.48% of that is ~$658,000.

How do you fund a $7 million race with that?
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-12, 10:18 PM

The 'independent' racing media have a case to answer


.......... on another thread................ the illustration is of the racing 'thought police' cutting adrift a journalist who did not toe the party   line.

Concurrently we have a national scandal on fire about the federal police raiding ABC journalists to find the source of confidential insights.

There is nothing 'confidential' about RVL burning the house down -- there is smoke everywhere.

http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/vic-gallops/patrick-bartley-vcat-case/new/?topicseen;PHPSESSID=d4e5214fc8b4b05e2e9747b87fdf0da0#new
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-13, 04:47 PM
Unbelievably sick performance by O&E for Rosehill and Caulfield.

Lowest O&E Randwick was $977.

Highest Rosehill today is $754.96!!!!!!!

Lowest today was Caulfield with $190!!!

Overall average proportion of Merged Pool is now dragged down to 2.93%.

Unweighted Average today is only 2.07%!

A 40+% decline from last Saturday!

How are the perps going to prop up this very sick puppy?

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-13, 11:00 PM


 Are JFC's figures even close to the truth?

..................if so................. the question of 'propping up' a hoax is hardly relevant

If a licensed person presented 'views' to the stewards akin to those paraded as 'our best knowledge' about the prospects for the O&E bet............. what would be the outcome?

The quest for integrity extends beyond 'licensed participants -- it surely embraces 'appointed administrators' and 'the independent media' reporting on industry developments.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-14, 06:13 AM
Anyone doubting my figures is welcome to undertake the exercise for themselves.

You don't need to key in the 1162 dog races I have so far to see the average is ~$2.54.

Or check the last 6 Cannington races to witness not a single O&E collect!

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-07-13/CANNINGTON/W/G/7/Win

I don't have the AUSTEXT data but someone clearly does.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-14, 10:07 AM

The obligation and responsibility to be transparent


........... surely belongs to racing administrators and their partner in silence, Tabcorp.

Why after the gleeful shoveling of bullshit about the new O&E bet option -- including a guarantee of $10 million net proceeds from Tabcorp -- have the spruikers gone quiet.

The implied contract with the community generally is to speak frankly and fully -- it seems that has not been done.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-14, 10:18 AM

How about Tabcorp just pushing one button and telling us the figures?

........... why is 'jfc' left to a lengthy manual process create some trustworthy transparency about average O&E dividends -- and an implied takeout well beyond the 7% 'headline' claim.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Jul-14, 12:43 PM
Pete and JFC, I think you both are correct to some degree.

Like the Everest where seemingly every spare advertising dollar was spent on promoting it by Racing NSW, the TAB machine will start selling OE at carnival times which may dwarf the total amounts now.

The TAB knows it takes a long time for the average punter to add it to their punting arsenal. As we always know most gambling operators are very reticent to display any transparency including the corporates.

I will be intrigued to see what the pool size will be during the spring carnival.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Jul-14, 02:11 PM
Frankly,
who gives a stuff if it’s a good or bad product. At least they are throwing it out there to try.
I personally and the public will make that decision whether it appeals to us or not. It will sink or swim
I couldn’t give two stuffs about the politics surrounding it
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-14, 09:41 PM

Win or lose

-- we just want industry administrators, and Tabcorp, to deal with us frankly and truthfully, and if they make an honest mistake -- to admit it and promise to do better.

It would also help if the 'independent', racing media  developed some balls about their ability to assess the tripe and call it for what it is.

...... as is, the racing-rulers routinely mock the medias regurgitation of their dictation of stories they want printed that have no credibility.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-17, 06:43 AM
Below is a common misconception about O&E Jackpots.

Good luck to anyone trying to find the ruling on such Jackpots.

To date I've looked at thousands of O&Es but so far have found ZERO Jackpots. Despite having seen over a hundred times where there was no winner.

But I have see Jackpots for Trios!

Presumably these O&E Jackpots have been donated to the Quinella Pool.

All in all not a good look.

It is actually quite easy to have O&E Jackpots Simply have a demerger when there are no winners.

But presumably such minutae do not concern V'landys and the Tabcorp Brains Trust.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-20, 10:20 AM
How on earth can an O&E dividend pay higher than the Quinella!

And over 10 times the Trio!

Seeing is believing.

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-07-19/BENDIGO/P/G/4
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-20, 08:13 PM

Transparency on 'glitches'

...... there may be an explanation ......... we should have it.

Erratic dividends do play into the marketing hands of  tabcorp -- they create the illusion of 'big payouts at random'
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-21, 07:34 AM
I'd venture the perps who concocted the O&E must get sick in the gut whenever an O&E fails to pay a dividend. Because such NoPays are a stark testament to its unpopularity.

In that case imagine how they must feel after the dogs yesterday - a Saturday!

From 75 races there were 23 NoPays!

Even at Wentworth Park and Bulli!

$3696.70 for the Merged Pool at WP1 yet nothing on the Favourite O&E.

And for good measure look at R10 where the O&E paid $1.00!

Wonder how much those 2 girls from the incessant O&E ads were jumping for joy!


5 The Gardens
1 Bulli
1 Wentworth Park
3 The Meadows
3 Bendigo
3 Ipswich
7 Cannington

23/75
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Jul-28, 05:33 PM
O&E turnover is continuing to tank.

And here is an amazing result.

This was the biggest Quinella on the main Victorian Gallops meeting.

Yet not one soul managed to get the O&E! (Nor the Trio).

First time I've noticed a Gallops O&E that did not pay.

Obviously not a good omen.

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-07-28/BENDIGO/BEN/R/9/Win
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Jul-28, 09:00 PM

Some accountability, please

Mistakes are made in product development -- and in 'focus groups' misled to believe that 'this one' will be a winner.

Think 'edsel ford'.

The apparent mistakes in the promotion of 'O&E' betting are of a different dimension.

................. no sensible one would have believed the product would  have contributed much to the RNSW  pool for the 'funding of racing' .

................... conversely, apparently, some racing administrators did believe that ........... and, worse, they encouraged the 'independent' racing media to give prominence to party-line reports of their belief.

That farce only exposd the racing media as dictation taking lackeys --some payback is well overdue.

How can the Nine-Fairfax bunker hold the line on 'independent always'?

Now, come mountain-climbing time, these same administrators will be similarly 'asking' the independent journalists to report 'Trump like crowds' attending the soon to  be un-royal Randwick.

......... the question to be put ...... this year and last............is how many 'free' on-course tickets are to be distributed for the mountain day?

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Aug-04, 08:57 AM
Stopped recording O&E for Dogs on July 28.

Here are the complete results for level staking the Field.

2425 Pays
347 No Pays

$7,275.00 Outlay
$6,143.72 Return
$1,131.28 Loss
15.55% Loss %

Confirming my earlier observations that the actual Rake is over 2 times the claimed Rake!

26.71% Odds
12.50% Evens
 7.44% Split
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-04, 06:38 PM


Any suggestion that racing administrators may have 'miss-spoken' is out of order.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-06, 08:23 PM


What figures are the administrators feeding to Richie at Racenet?

TRACKING ABOVE TARGET
 
When the TAB launched its new betting type ODDS & EVENS the potters were quick out of the gates.

Every television show isn’t suited to your liking and it’s the same with betting but sometimes you need to open your eyes and think 'will others like it'?

Odds & Evens has a big job to do as it is the funding model behind the $7.5 million The Golden Eagle and some new $1 million prizemoney races in the trots and greyhounds.

My mail suggests the early figures are highly promising and tracking well above initial expectations. 
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Aug-06, 08:29 PM
I actually happen to know the O&E is tracking.

Watch this space.

But, for now I'll wager my testicles that Richie's mail has its pants on fire.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-06, 09:38 PM

Is the plot sickening?

If the figures paraded by 'jfc' are close to the truth, it raises questions about what contrary figures are being given to Racenet.

Richie has placed a big bet on his credibility as 'independent'  -- as did Clinton Payne, even before the pattern of figures was established.

.... commonsense dictates that observers put O&E in the same basket of confusing nonsense as 'spinner' and 'duets' and 'et al' that attract pools of no consequence making little if any difference to the total TAB take.

.............. why would Racenet get involved apart from asking RNSW/tabcorp for the true figures.

In the background is the prospect of a takeout of Racenet as the news-corpse stirs.

 
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Aug-07, 07:35 AM
I actually happen to know the O&E is tracking.

Watch this space.

But, for now I'll wager my testicles that Richie's mail has its pants on fire.

JFC,  I think you are safe. Not the first Richie got something wrong. I liked his dad’s columns better.

Nowadays, people don’t question most figures given to them as how they are calculated is confusing to many. In the old days mental arithmetic was a norm, now it has no relevance to many or logistics of credibility when it comes to numbers.

Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-19, 09:13 AM


Lets play a numbers game with tabcorp- -- take 8 out and put 9.5 in

The odds and evens stunt continues to take a toll on the credibility of racing administrators and media-men taking dictation from the administrators in writing their stories.

Assurances that the O&E scam would deliver a net $9.5 million addition to funding for racing in NSW are now exposed as the nonsense they always were.

The usual Monday racing-wrap in the SMH this morning juxtaposes two stories that may be closely linked and not cleanly separate.

Consider these extracts:

Board meets over $8 million shortfall

The Racing NSW meets on Monday when it will have to decide what to do about an $8 million shortfall in the TAB distribution to clubs this year. It is expected Racing NSW will make up the shortfall to ensure clubs can continue to trade with confidence.

Odds and Evens struggling

The racing codes were briefed last week on the results of the new Odds and Evens bet, which is set to fund the $7.5 million Golden Eagle and $1 million races in the dogs and trots, but the first couple of months has been disappointing.
The funding is guaranteed for three years by Tabcorp from the Odds and Evens bet, but it is long way from meeting expectations


.... now...... the way I read it, tabcorp is committed to put in more than it did not put in as planned.

What is going on here?

The racing minister should investigate and report on the background to this double shuffle
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Aug-22, 09:36 PM


.............. the week has unfolded without anyone who took the dictation apologizing and recanting
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: jfc on 2019-Sep-20, 06:38 AM
For 1200 races covering the top NSW and Vic venue each day.

1.874% O&E share of Merged Pool

1.910% O&E/Quinella

3.917% 1st 50 races O&E/Q

3.603% 1st 100
1.934% Next 100
1.648% ....
1.688%
1.676%
1.633%
2.063%
2.042%
2.075%
1.561%
1.766%
1.328%

In the middle there were some curious sporadic surges where there was an extra $500 or whatever on certain races, but presumably the rusted on perps have grown sick of throwing good money away.

At a recent ~1.6% of the Quinella Pool the O&E is a massive failure.
Title: ROULETTE RACING
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-20, 08:19 AM

Mushroom farming -- feeding punters

On reflection nothing that was said about the 'new' O&E bet option had any proper foundation in likely reality.

.........the racing media men who toed the party line to extol its virtues and prospects ......now look like dunces -- and worse!