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Offline Peter Mair

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O.P. « 2019-Jul-01, 08:32 AM »


ROULETTE RACING


The conceptual degradation of the spirit of racing (and the assessed  intellect of punters) continues apace with a new TAB bet-type allowing punters the simple choice of a bet on the TAB number of the winning runner being an odd-number or an even-number.

Odds vs Evens lets you Bet whether an odd numbered, or an even number Horse or Greyhound will win the race.

One question is about how much the punter will lose on a bet split each way -- about the number of dead-heat and other  'zeros' on this new wheel-of-chance.

For many punters wanting a flutter among friends over a beer at the club, the question becomes an intelligence test -- leave the table to place a taxed-bet or just convert the idea to a game of visual two-up (and taking away any 'zero' on the wheel with a simple agreement to let dead-heated bets stand for the next race).

With any luck the idea of 'keeping the money on the table' will catch on and extend to the punters defense against the consequences of the deception of cluttered  'inflated-field' racing when prizemoney is paid down to 10th.

Hospitality staff that have done the 'responsible gambling' training will now have an objective criterion -- the self-identified someones so 'irresponsible' they cannot find another patron willing to match their bet.

One might also wonder what is happening in the Druitt Street bunker if the admins think this new bet type will deliver more money for racing.

Let us pray!


Odds and evens bet to produce more revenue

Racing NSW will launch the odds-and-evens bet type on Tuesday, with the new revenue stream to be announced at the same time as a boost to prizemoney at country carnivals.

The new bet type will also provide more funding for all three codes to sustain the prizemoney advances of recent years.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-02, 09:47 AM Reply #1 »

Not so fast Sherlock -- the new 'odds and evens' bet is not so simple

It is actually quite complex and that will limit its appeal -- as will the 'take'  from the merged quinella pool (20% ?).

The risk of auto-suggestion remains -- that among friends the best option will still be a simple either-way matched wager, stakes placed on the table.

Details of the new 'odds and evens' bet type are now available on the NSW TAB site.

It turns on the 'number' of the runners finishing first and second:

Odds & Evens is a pari-mutuel bet type that gives you the ability to bet on whether the first and second official placegetters in a race will both be odd numbers, even numbers or split.

On the web site there is a wheel of fortune to spin and get a suggestion among the three options.

Can’t decide? Change ............. to the wheel view on digital channels and spin the wheel for a randomised suggestion!



Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-02, 12:45 PM Reply #2 »

Takeout from the new-bet pool to be 7%


RNSW says:

Importantly, the Bet type has a much lower take out than other bet types, hence giving higher dividends to the punter.

There are three commission takeout rates for 'local pools' , for co-mingled international pools, and for Hong Kong


Win   14.5%   14.5%   17.5%
Place   14.25%   14.25%   17.5%
Exact 2nd   14.5%   14.5%   N/A
Odds & Evens   7%   7%   N/A
Quinella   17.50%   25%   17.5%
Exacta   20%   25%   N/A
Trio   21%   25%   N/A
Trifecta   21%   25%   25%
Doubles   20%   25%   17.5%
First 4   22.5%   25%   N/A
Quaddie   20%   25%   N/A
Duet   14.5%   25%   17.5%
footyTab   25%   25%   N/A
BIG6   25%   25%   N/A


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-02, 03:30 PM Reply #3 »


The view from on high

“It’s an entry point (product) for people that don’t understand racing,” Racing NSW CEO Peter V’landys said.

“Our biggest competition is sport. You don’t need too much intellect to have a sports bet – you either follow St George or you follow the (Canterbury) Bulldogs so you just back one or the other.

“We need an easy bet type for people to come into the racing industry and hopefully they get more involved.

“With the digital age this is really attractive to the younger generation. The whole focus has been in attracting the new generation, the under 35s and this product is for them.

“The rusted on punters will use it and I’ll tell you why they will use it is because there’s a very low take out so they can certainly play it to their advantage.

“It’s aimed at a completely new audience under 35.”

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-02, 07:58 PM Reply #4 »

Will there be any transparency about betting turnover on the O&E bet option?


Racing NSW.... hopes the product will fund the $7.5 million Golden Eagle at Rosehill.

Racing NSW... said the product was designed to attract the younger demographic -- "The bet type is not only simple, but it is entertaining," -- we are looking to reach out and access that younger demographic ..... people who may not have access to the detailed race form ..l....."

These stated 'expectations', among other tripe, are nonsense -- any evidence of a O&E bet pool being substantial would be met by the syndicates exploiting the pool with algorithm-bets placed automatically just before the jump.

Maybe let the dust settle.

I trust the 'independent' racing media are choking on their dedication to the party line -- however restrained it may be.

It is surely no sure thing that the independent racing media will, in due course, demand any accountability for the overall consequences.

The predictable enough reaction on Racenet and Punters.com is hardly indicative of punter confidence in any inclination for RNSW and TAB to stop self-serving and give a fair go.

Exclusively negative knee-jerk feedback should concern racing administrators -- it may be prescient.

The integrity of the industry is being destroyed.

Already South Australia and Queensland have stepped well back from financial worship of local racing.

Almost every 'innovation' affecting racing wagering in recent years has been about denigrating 'the form' and enhancing 'rough-random' race outcomes.

The concept of fairly informed wagering on fairly run races has given way to some preference for mainly random nonsense aimed at entertaining addicted punters.

The 7% takeout is also presumably aimed at diverting gambling dollars from other 'simple' but more expensive bet options offered by others. 

One might ask why a state government would allow this -- and whether Tabcorp may be entitled to compensation for the likely diversion of bets from simulated 'backside' racing which it bought from RNSW.

Among other things there seems to be no comprehension of overall restraint on the automatic entitlement of the racing industry to additional funding of an industry that is already fairly described as 'bloated beyond belief'.

The featherbedding of rural racing in particular shifts 'city money' into needy country racing electorates -- but  it is hard to accept that such 'off budget' transfers of racing-dollars is the best use of this money.


Online jfc

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« 2019-Jul-03, 09:01 AM Reply #5 »
How is that crap from V'landys considered legal!

Deception about truncation which can add more than another 7% to the Rake.

Encouraging problem gambling - instead of 1 bet a week on your team, lose 100s of idiotic ones.

Roulette rake is far lower.

Handicap betting on AFL at Betfair or best of Corporates is a far better bet.

If there is a way of exploiting O&E stay tuned for Manx Pranx.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-03, 10:06 AM Reply #6 »


Ripley was never this good --the dust will not settle

The astonishing flow of hype about the new O&E bet option continued this morning in the papers.

Consider these extracts:

The TAB has guaranteed the $10m in revenue to the racing codes from the new bet type, which it is hoped will appeal to a young audience. The model for Odds and Evens betting means the commission from it is paid directly to the racing industry. There is an expectation it might return more than $10m in its first year.

The TAB will take half the commission it takes on other TAB bets and the other half will be paid directly to the racing industry.

Adam Rytenskild, from the TAB, said a lot of testing and customer research was done and Racing NSW ...... had no doubt it would generate enough revenue to pay for the three rich races. “I think it will generate more,” .........“It’s an entry point for people who don’t understand racing and it’s a simple bet.

The Odds and Evens bet type targeted at the young adult market to claw back money wagered on sport. “We are confident that it will be popular with punters and cover the costs of those races and maybe more” ............ "The focus groups on this bet have been very exciting". “In sport, you either follow one side or the other and it is easy to understand which team you are betting on.

The boost to country racing was endorsed by Minister for Better Regulation and Innovation ............. who has racing as part of his portfolio “Racing is more than just an event in regional communities, it’s part of the culture, which is why we want to continue to make racing as enjoyable and accessible as possible”


One can only hope that the clearly independent racing media corp will follow the unfolding reality and report frankly.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Jul-03, 11:28 AM Reply #7 »
With all of Mairs cut & pasting from racenet it’s no surprise he left out the logical comments from their writer Clinton Payne

Yet another dishonest representation from the self promoting Mair

Oh, and Payne is 100% correct.

“For all the narks out there, there is a generation of younger punters that are choosing to spend much of their wagering dollar on sport, mostly overseas sport I might add, like basketball, international football and the like.

How much of that money do you think flows back into racing?

Now what about all those people that play Keno “heads or tails”, a similar product, how much of that turnover heads to racing?

So, the three codes in NSW get together with TAB, come up with a product to try and counter the competitors and the “rusted on punters” scream and howl on all social platforms that it’s the end of racing.

The last time I looked at the FAQs – it didn’t say us rusted on punters have to have a bet using this new product – so why do we care?

Why, because we’re a bunch of whingers that shout from the rafters at everything and never offer anything that might one day help us be relevant as the world evolves”


Offline fours

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« 2019-Jul-03, 02:28 PM Reply #8 »
Ying and yang,

Remains to be seen if bringing in new punters ( dumbed down ones ) is balanced by the losses from existing pools which may in time be replenished as the new punters learn more.

Can we really expect much more from the fashions and food tent types?

Fours

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Jul-03, 03:01 PM Reply #9 »
.

Can we really expect much more from the fashions and food tent types?

Fours

Sure can, they’re cashed up and love throwing it around

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-03, 09:37 PM Reply #10 »



The ideal of a free press is a fiction in main-stream reporting of racing industry issues.


Do not let contrived 'complexity' overwhelm 'simplicity' and the general idea of a fair go for all.

It its likely practical appeal the O&E[&Split] bet option as a simple 'heads and tails' proposal will be confused by the conversion of a 50/50 offer to a 1 in 3 choice.

There are slim chances of most people in a club properly understanding the complexities after a few drinks.

Conversely, well-connected sober betting syndicates will profit from automated 'late' bets informed by algorithm-systems -- the syndicate managers could well be in the same club as the others, needing to do nothing to benefit from their technological advantage.

In that sense, these bet offers are designed to take advantage of most while benefiting insider associates of Tabcorp (and possibly entitled to rebates on bets placed)

The hype about the 7% takeout -- and the associated tripe -- does not meet the pub-test of transparent disclosure.

In particular, it is no longer necessary for Tabcorp to round-down dividends to the lower '10 cents' for on-line punters but doing so adds some 5 percentage points to the 7% 'headline rate' -- making the true-take from the pool more like 12%.

Both sleight-of-hands should be well understood by the professional racing media -- and reported frankly.

.................... as for a compliant contribution on Racenet, defending the new bet ....... the writer's declared allegiance to 'OUR INDUSTRY' compromises the independence and objectivity we are entitled to expect from the racing media corp.

The racing media is clearly not, but should  be, stridently independent of the racing industry.

One problem with the racing industry is the ever-present sense that its associated media dependents are beholden to its administrators.

Also ever present is the sense that being so beholden is influenced by the administrators funding racing media services.

The ideal of a free press is a fiction in main-stream reporting of racing industry issues.

This is  intolerable -- well illustrated by the unqualified repetition of O&E hype-tripe from industry administrators.





Offline Dave

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« 2019-Jul-04, 01:01 PM Reply #11 »
Not being interested in this silly bet I haven't studied it's viability but........just the line "You don’t need too much intellect to have a sports bet"  while I wholeheartedly agree with the premise that sports bettors don't use much intellect(probably don't have any to use) plus the fact that the TAB has punters betting on cartoon races (the last time I entered a TAB anyway and I doubt they would have changed)shows the disdain they feel for all punters..........the question is a moral one, is it right to take advantage of those who are intellectually handicapped just because you can???
So basically I have to agree with everything Pete has said on this subject
wily, Clinton Payne has a vested interest, anything you read on Racenet is probably cash for comment......take it with a grain of salt

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Jul-04, 04:35 PM Reply #12 »
.........the question is a moral one, is it right to take advantage of those who are intellectually handicapped just because you can???
So basically I have to agree with everything Pete has said on this subject
wily, Clinton Payne has a vested interest, anything you read on Racenet is probably cash for comment......take it with a grain of salt

Cant agree Dave. There’s plenty of moral issues to get our knickers in a knot over.  This isn’t one of them
If people want to play, they can. I won’t but plenty will. I certainly don’t think those that play trackside or heads tails keno are intellectually handicapped. Whatever floats your boat is my attitude

I leave that moral high ground nonsense to Mair to pontificate over as he strives for industry relevance.

No one is being taken advantage of

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-04, 08:08 PM Reply #13 »


Show me the money

I am reluctant to simply put aside a 'Tabcorp guarantee':

The TAB has guaranteed the $10m in revenue to the racing codes from the new bet type

.......... but I am wondering how this new bet type will generate a net new takeout of some 10 million in a few months.

The 'declared intention' to also offer the bet on the Victorian TAB is interesting in the sense that, in Victoria, Tabcorp does not get the revenue from 'rounding down' -- these funds are accumulated in some 'fund' at RVL.

It is not well understood that in NSW about half of the float-value of the TAB in the mid 1990s was the capital value of the entitlement to 'roundings' given to the new company.

Such 'roundings' are an unnecessary rort that shows contempt for punters placing bets --  like O&E -- most likely to pay win dividends under $2.

......  there is much for the independent racing media to chew on here!



Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Jul-04, 08:14 PM Reply #14 »

Show me the money

I am reluctant to simply put aside a 'Tabcorp guarantee':
!

Given their past dealings with you I reckon they couldn’t get a stuff  :biggrin:

Offline Dave

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« 2019-Jul-04, 09:15 PM Reply #15 »
Your're kidding aren't you wily? There are plenty of moral issues to get our knickers in a knot over and this isn't one of them??
first to take you to task........I think it is a moral issue but I don't give a damn about people who watch/bet or are involved in other sports........so therefore your analogy that my knickers are in a knot over it is way off the mark

I do think anyone who has these types of bets or anyone who bets on sports outside of Horse racing have a Mental deficiency
The TAB and Racing NSW sets it self up as a Moral guardian, and a responsible gambling advocate, this could not be further from the truth.....as evidenced by Cartoon racing.....if that isn't to attract the lowest common denominator then please tell what is?......
With this bet even in the advertising they say it is for people who lack the intellect to understand backing a horse to win.........I was punting when I was 9 or 10.....it ain't rocket science
As I said I don't care.............just as I don't care about legal prostitution but it would be hypocritical if the Catholic Church was given control of Prostitution in NSW wouldn't it?? Prostitution would not be immoral but the church would be in that scenario, wouldn't it??
I am not against this bet.......but the attitude that someone has to rob these poor morons it may as well be the TAB......at the same time they are making other Bookies stop giving away free money because that encourages problem Gambling??.......Can't you see the hypocrisy? Or are you so blinded by your dislike of Peter that you would not agree with him if he said the sky is Blue and the Grass is green??
Good luck to them if they can empty the pockets of intellectually handicapped.......not like it is going to a good cause, it is going to help those who want to Rob you and me and every other punter......
I will stand to be corrected but I believe the POC tax was the TAB's idea and they refuse to pay it!!

Online sobig

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« 2019-Jul-04, 09:23 PM Reply #16 »
Although tabcorp did not oppose the POC it was suggested and implemented by state governments starting with SA

and now in every state.


Online sobig

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« 2019-Jul-04, 09:28 PM Reply #17 »
The POC was the idea of state governments not the TAB. It was suggested and first implemented by SA now in all states at varying amounts

The only dispute I know of is in Queensland where the dispute is how the calculation is derived for the TAB.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-04, 10:07 PM Reply #18 »

Can someone do the math please?

I am not very numerate.

As I read it there are 3 outcomes so a winning dividend should be, on average, about $1.90 (less the rounding)-- ie if $1 was bet on each outcome the return would be, in total, some $2.80 (less the rounding).

........ casual perusal of the actual dividends declared show some are well in excess of this expectation.


Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2019-Jul-04, 10:27 PM Reply #19 »
That may ring true if there are equal amounts of (actual) combinations in the race.

ie 4-horse race has combinations 12, 13, 14, 23, 24, 34 or S-O-S-S-E-S or 1E-1O-4S
5-horse race reads 12, 13, 14, 15, 23, 24, 25, 34, 35, 45 or S-O-S-O-S-E-S-S-O-S OR 1E-3O-6S

The number/spread of actual/live combinations is dependant on how the nominations/scratchings fall, never mind the added complexity of actual odds of each combo.

Offline fours

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« 2019-Jul-05, 08:30 AM Reply #20 »
HarmersHaven and all,

Very late scratchings at the barrier will provide opportunities for some that are aware of the changes to the numbers and are quick off the mark.

Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jul-05, 09:27 AM Reply #21 »

The promotional hype does not ring true

For most of us quickly scanning the fields and the odds the choice will be played against the smarter plays of syndicates with systems and automated bet placements.

The younger-set target market may not be pleased if they just become more feed-fodder for the professionals.

Even so it is unlikely that O&E will attract a sufficient pool to be worth exploiting.

It will take a couple of weeks to get a feel for O&E bet pools by comparing the new merged pools with 'last years' quinella pools.

I am at a loss to understand the initial promotional overkill.

Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2019-Jul-05, 12:20 PM Reply #22 »
HarmersHaven and all,

Very late scratchings at the barrier will provide opportunities for some that are aware of the changes to the numbers and are quick off the mark.

Fours

Not sure I follow, and I've spent some hours trying to work it through.

My understanding is the O/E/S is a pari-m bet, not a fixed odds bet - surely any late adjustments will be reflected in the final dividend declared?

Or is the suggestion here that it's a fixed odds bet based on the Q pool (aggregated) approximates at time of bet placement?

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Jul-05, 12:31 PM Reply #23 »
Odds Vs EVENS are fixed odds opportunities with the corps

TAB would have to be to be competitive

Offline fours

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« 2019-Jul-05, 01:14 PM Reply #24 »
Harmershaven,

I am talking about scratchings seconds before the jump.

No time for 99% of punters to adjust to the new true odds versus whats on offer in the parimutual pool. That 99% will largely be eve further in the dark than they were before the scratching.

For example in your 5 and 4 horse field outcomes above if a 5 horse field gets number 3 scratched by the vet and they jump ......even outcomes remain 1 BUT their % of the outcomes has jumped to 16.66% from 10% AND has become great value IF the price was fair beforehand for the 5 horse field.

Fours
PS Harmershaven - no money comes out of this particular pool after a late scratching as long as the three outcomes remain possible BUT the relative % of each outcome can change drastically after the scratchings and therefore enable value to emerge OR disappear.
« Last Edit: 2019-Jul-05, 01:29 PM by fours »


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