ROULETTE RACING - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



ROULETTE RACING - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: ROULETTE RACING  (Read 2518 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online JWesleyHarding

  • Group 1
  • User 231
  • Posts: 19060
« 2019-Jul-08, 04:46 PM Reply #50 »
"Rounding"

Speaking of rounding reminds me of the time I was spending some time out west.

I was I the pub having a beer and a yarn when the bloke I was having a beer with asked me to help rounding up his cattle.

I asked how many he had and he replied " twenty eight".

I helpfully replied "thirty".

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-08, 05:32 PM Reply #51 »



The 'correct' answer from the Harris Street and Druitt Street whizzkids is 'twenty' --  'eight' are deducted.

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 6024
« 2019-Jul-08, 06:25 PM Reply #52 »
Peter,

Not surprisingly your whizz kid is an idiot who has in fact described truncation.

Fours

Online Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12404
« 2019-Jul-08, 08:51 PM Reply #53 »
"Rounding"

Speaking of rounding reminds me of the time I was spending some time out west.

I was I the pub having a beer and a yarn when the bloke I was having a beer with asked me to help rounding up his cattle.

I asked how many he had and he replied " twenty eight".

I helpfully replied "thirty".

Some would say that's union speak for how many are getting paid. 28 turn & 2 no shows go to the kick.  :shutup:

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-08, 09:16 PM Reply #54 »

'fours'

.......... is in ever present danger of being relegated to where he apparently belongs ..... with other' like minded' members craving attention with noise but nothing useful to say.

I do wonder if the sponsors of the forum encourage their input to a forum in decline.

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 6024
« 2019-Jul-08, 09:59 PM Reply #55 »
Peter,

You are so far from reality it is not funny.

An Act of Parliament was done to get rid of you for a reason.

Fours

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 6024
« 2019-Jul-08, 10:03 PM Reply #56 »
reflections,

Peter Mair and ratsac want me to shut up and they are peas in a pod but guess what.... I will do just that.

But it's on them.

Fours ( the lurker only from now on )

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-09, 05:56 AM Reply #57 »
I'm unaware of any official disclosure of O&E performance but luckily I've concocted a way of figuring it out myself.

For Randwick and Flemington-

$20,267.12 Total
$1,125.95 Average per Race
3.5% of Merged Pool

Curiously the 1st Randwick Race was 8.37%.

Flemington 7 was worst with only 1.679%.

All of the 1st 3 Races in both were > 4.799%.

So obviously the later races were well below average.

V'landys et al might have to call out for Doctor Spinner.



Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-09, 06:58 PM Reply #58 »

O&E or E&O misunderstood

................ last week everyone, not least the conscripted media, was taken for a ride by racing administrators...... what was said was never credible ............. it is not likely to ever become so ...... and it was not even 1 April!

The usual use of the term 'O&E' is errors and omissions excepted

Errors and omissions excepted is a phrase used in an attempt to reduce legal liability for potentially incorrect or incomplete information .............

............ it seeks to make a statement that information cannot be relied upon, or may have changed by the time of use.

It is also used ...........to state that—to the best of the supplier's knowledge—the information is correct, but that they will not be held responsible if an error has been committed.


.... luckily the promotion had an established escape clause!

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-10, 07:11 AM Reply #59 »
Onto the O&E Wheel of Folly.

It appears to be incredibly stupid. Purely random 1-1-1. Even a 1-1-2 random pick would be far saner.

As to the displayed Odds.

Odds are available as soon as enough Quinella combinations are backed.

But rather than display those it dags about waiting for an O&E bet before just that pick's Odds gets displayed.

The mugs sucked into this joke might want to avoid very short Odds.

But they obviously lack the skill to calculate that and so resort to the Wheel Odds.

Which of course don't get shown until the first mug bets blind!

For smaller markets this would be extremely tiresome waiting for Odds to finally get shown.

So ~7/8 dog O&E winners are unbacked!


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-11, 07:17 AM Reply #60 »
After 1010 dog races, where only 871 paid out, the O&E dividends still hold the same pattern.

Level staking the Field produces-

$2.52 Average Dividend

16.1% Loss!

At first I was suspicious about Tabcorp's Dividend algorithm but I've now checked it seems correct.

And the explanation of this paradox seems to be due to Longshot Bias where Bolters' Losses are far worse than average.

Normally one wouldn't consider (say) a $6 shot a Bolter.

But in O&E that $6 is usually a consolidation of far rougher Quinella Dividends.

And Level Staking such garbage takes one down the road to perdition.

So apparently the excess mug losses are donated to the Quinella Pools which the Manx are then free to manipulate and exploit.



Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-11, 12:07 PM Reply #61 »

About fair dealing and deception and trust and mistrust

If the net takeout figures being published by 'jfc' are correct -- that the O&E takeout is double the 7% headline rate or more -- then there would seem to be a reasonable basis for asking Tabcorp and RacingNSW to address the discrepancy -- and more generally for both go back to taws in giving a clear and transparent account of the new bet.

............. and what are we to make of a pool merging process that may not be fair as between the separate bet dividends.

What is appalling is that the 'independent' racing media -- having bought a dummy pass -- are unlikely to both apologise and demand accountability.


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-12, 05:54 PM Reply #62 »
Looking at O&E Turnover on the major Sydney & Melbourne races over 7 days-

$41,316.06 - or 3.48% of the Merged Pools.

Zerafa claimed NSW Quinella Turnover was $270 million last year.

7% of 3.48% of that is ~$658,000.

How do you fund a $7 million race with that?

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-12, 10:18 PM Reply #63 »

The 'independent' racing media have a case to answer


.......... on another thread................ the illustration is of the racing 'thought police' cutting adrift a journalist who did not toe the party   line.

Concurrently we have a national scandal on fire about the federal police raiding ABC journalists to find the source of confidential insights.

There is nothing 'confidential' about RVL burning the house down -- there is smoke everywhere.

http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/vic-gallops/patrick-bartley-vcat-case/new/?topicseen;PHPSESSID=d4e5214fc8b4b05e2e9747b87fdf0da0#new

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-13, 04:47 PM Reply #64 »
Unbelievably sick performance by O&E for Rosehill and Caulfield.

Lowest O&E Randwick was $977.

Highest Rosehill today is $754.96!!!!!!!

Lowest today was Caulfield with $190!!!

Overall average proportion of Merged Pool is now dragged down to 2.93%.

Unweighted Average today is only 2.07%!

A 40+% decline from last Saturday!

How are the perps going to prop up this very sick puppy?


Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-13, 11:00 PM Reply #65 »


 Are JFC's figures even close to the truth?

..................if so................. the question of 'propping up' a hoax is hardly relevant

If a licensed person presented 'views' to the stewards akin to those paraded as 'our best knowledge' about the prospects for the O&E bet............. what would be the outcome?

The quest for integrity extends beyond 'licensed participants -- it surely embraces 'appointed administrators' and 'the independent media' reporting on industry developments.


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-14, 06:13 AM Reply #66 »
Anyone doubting my figures is welcome to undertake the exercise for themselves.

You don't need to key in the 1162 dog races I have so far to see the average is ~$2.54.

Or check the last 6 Cannington races to witness not a single O&E collect!

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-07-13/CANNINGTON/W/G/7/Win

I don't have the AUSTEXT data but someone clearly does.


Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-14, 10:07 AM Reply #67 »

The obligation and responsibility to be transparent


........... surely belongs to racing administrators and their partner in silence, Tabcorp.

Why after the gleeful shoveling of bullshit about the new O&E bet option -- including a guarantee of $10 million net proceeds from Tabcorp -- have the spruikers gone quiet.

The implied contract with the community generally is to speak frankly and fully -- it seems that has not been done.


Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-14, 10:18 AM Reply #68 »

How about Tabcorp just pushing one button and telling us the figures?

........... why is 'jfc' left to a lengthy manual process create some trustworthy transparency about average O&E dividends -- and an implied takeout well beyond the 7% 'headline' claim.

Offline Jeunes

  • VIP Club
  • Group 2
  • User 296
  • Posts: 2896
« 2019-Jul-14, 12:43 PM Reply #69 »
Pete and JFC, I think you both are correct to some degree.

Like the Everest where seemingly every spare advertising dollar was spent on promoting it by Racing NSW, the TAB machine will start selling OE at carnival times which may dwarf the total amounts now.

The TAB knows it takes a long time for the average punter to add it to their punting arsenal. As we always know most gambling operators are very reticent to display any transparency including the corporates.

I will be intrigued to see what the pool size will be during the spring carnival.


Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 26298
« 2019-Jul-14, 02:11 PM Reply #70 »
Frankly,
who gives a stuff if it’s a good or bad product. At least they are throwing it out there to try.
I personally and the public will make that decision whether it appeals to us or not. It will sink or swim
I couldn’t give two stuffs about the politics surrounding it

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-14, 09:41 PM Reply #71 »

Win or lose

-- we just want industry administrators, and Tabcorp, to deal with us frankly and truthfully, and if they make an honest mistake -- to admit it and promise to do better.

It would also help if the 'independent', racing media  developed some balls about their ability to assess the tripe and call it for what it is.

...... as is, the racing-rulers routinely mock the medias regurgitation of their dictation of stories they want printed that have no credibility.


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-17, 06:43 AM Reply #72 »
Below is a common misconception about O&E Jackpots.

Good luck to anyone trying to find the ruling on such Jackpots.

To date I've looked at thousands of O&Es but so far have found ZERO Jackpots. Despite having seen over a hundred times where there was no winner.

But I have see Jackpots for Trios!

Presumably these O&E Jackpots have been donated to the Quinella Pool.

All in all not a good look.

It is actually quite easy to have O&E Jackpots Simply have a demerger when there are no winners.

But presumably such minutae do not concern V'landys and the Tabcorp Brains Trust.


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6969
« 2019-Jul-20, 10:20 AM Reply #73 »
How on earth can an O&E dividend pay higher than the Quinella!

And over 10 times the Trio!

Seeing is believing.

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2019-07-19/BENDIGO/P/G/4

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4699
« 2019-Jul-20, 08:13 PM Reply #74 »

Transparency on 'glitches'

...... there may be an explanation ......... we should have it.

Erratic dividends do play into the marketing hands of  tabcorp -- they create the illusion of 'big payouts at random'


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap