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Sal Perna's, I smell a rat thread - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Sal Perna's, I smell a rat thread  (Read 41074 times)

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Offline Authorized

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« 2013-Jul-15, 05:20 PM Reply #25 »
Ken Callendar's weekly whine. He has been whinging and whining under the guise of "the punter's pal" for many decades now.

Who on earth backs a horse solely on their last run to the exclusion of all other form. Quickest way to the poor house.

Yes. Last start aweful. But you don't have to go back that far to find a 2nd in the G2 Naturalism Stks, a 5th in the Listed Heatherlie Stks and a 4th in the listed Warnambool Cup.

Start before last beat De Fine Lago by 3.5 lengths giving him 3.5 kg. Next start he is beaten 9.1 lengths giving FDL 5 kgs over same course/distance/track condition. You are entitled to swear if you backed him last start.

But why would the trainer travel all the way up to Grafton if he didn't think the horse was going to perform closer to his best form? Was he going up to see the Jacaranda trees perhaps?

Bad run last start, but as we always have been taught, you can forgive a horse one bad run.

Peter Mair and Ken Callendar are cut from the same cloth. Serial whingers always looking to overstate a negative.






If Mr O'Ceiron had won last start what weight would he have carried at Grafton ? De Fine Lago went from BM88 to BM92 for his win in that race.

Mr O'Ceiron dropped from BM98 to BM97 for todays race. If he wins last start he probably goes up to 102 (about 2kgs) meaning he carries about 58 at Grafton.

That 1 or 2 kilos made all the difference.

As it was he must have run a good 12 lengths better than he did at Moonee Valley.


FP  BM  Name  AS  Jockey  SP  Trainer  WT  BP 
   1  won  MR O'CEIRIN  5G  B SHINN  4-1  CIARON MAHER  56  16 
 [ POSTPONED (USA) - CADELL (NZ) (YACHTIE (AUS)) ]
   2  0.2  YULALONA  5G  K MCEVOY  30-1  PETER SNOWDEN  54  11 
 [ DUBAI DESTINATION (USA) - KLAMATH FALLS (USA) (STORM CAT (USA)) ]
   3  0.5  REUBEN PERCIVAL  6G  N RAWILLER  11-2  MS G WATERHOUSE  55.5  9 
 [ AL AKBAR (AUS) - YACHTING MAGIC (NZ) (YACHTIE (AUS)) ]
   4  0.6  SAINT ENCOSTA  6G  TIMOTHY BELL  60-1  JOHN P THOMPSON  54  7 
 [ ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) - ST. KATHERINE (AUS) (BARATHEA (IRE)) ]
   5  2.1  DESTINY'S KISS  4G  C REITH  7-2  JOSEPH PRIDE  56  14 
 [ POWER OF DESTINY (AUS) - A FAIRY'S KISS (NZ) (STRAVINSKY (USA)) ]
   6  2.7  TRAJET  7G  R THOMPSON  30-1  LIAM BIRCHLEY  54  10 
 [ GOOD JOURNEY (USA) - TRES BELLE (NZ) (HONOR GRADES (USA)) ]
   7  2.8  DEVISED  5G  J KISSICK  15-1  T P DONNELLY  54  4 
 [ GALILEO (IRE) - SPEEDOS (AUS) (REDOUTE'S CHOICE (AUS)) ]
   8  4.3  SHENZHOU STEEDS  5G  E A WILKINSON  12-1  MICHAEL MORONEY  54  12 
 [ ISHIGURU (USA) - SUN CITY (NZ) (SPECTACULAR LOVE (USA)) ]
   9  5.4  RAEBURN  8G  P HAMMERSLEY  40-1  BRIAN SMITH  54  1 
 [ DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) - PORTRAIT (AUS) (OCTAGONAL (NZ)) ]
   10  5.7  ZENNISTA  5M  D J BROWNE  15-4  L LATTA  57  6 
 [ ZENNO ROB ROY (JPN) - ZARNITSA (NZ) (MAROOF (USA)) ]
   11  6.1  ZAR ZAR BINKS  3G  M PAGET  25-1  BINDI CHEERS  54  15 
 [ ZARIZ (AUS) - NATISM LADY (AUS) (NATURALISM (NZ)) ]
   12  6.8  DAZZLE US  4G  J BYRNE  66-1  BRUCE W HILL  54  13 
 [ RED DAZZLER (AUS) - EVERYBODYS TALKING (AUS) (UNBRIDLED'S SONG (USA)) ]
   13  7.6  PIAZZA SAN PIETRO  5G  MS K O'HARA  15-1  BEDE MURRAY  54  2 
 [ PINS (AUS) - ASCONA (NZ) (GROSVENOR (NZ)) ]
   14  12.9  FIUMICINO  9G  M J CAHILL  14-1  MICHAEL & WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES  57  5 
 [ ZABEEL (NZ) - LATTE (NZ) (MAROOF (USA)) ]
   15  13.5  PHRASES  3G  MS B HODDER  100-1  BINDI CHEERS  54  3 
 [ CASINO PRINCE (AUS) - MELODY (NZ) (STRAVINSKY (USA)) ]
   16  23.2  VOILA ICI  8H  G COLLESS  11-1  PETER MOODY  59  8 
 [ DAYLAMI (IRE) - FAR HOPE (GB) (BARATHEA (IRE)) ]

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2013-Jul-15, 05:32 PM Reply #26 »
As it was he must have run a good 12 lengths better than he did at Moonee Valley.

No disputing that Matt.

But the point is, that is not the run you rate him on.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Jul-15, 05:35 PM Reply #27 »
Good points about the weight Author

Major country cup was always the target and he got in well,

PP,I reckon it's a myth about forgiving a horse one bad run. It's a hoarey old cliche that my experience tells me is rubbish. Too many times I give a horse another chance to find that the form was correct and they get rolled :sad:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2013-Jul-15, 08:54 PM Reply #28 »
PP,I reckon it's a myth about forgiving a horse one bad run. It's a hoarey old cliche that my experience tells me is rubbish. Too many times I give a horse another chance to find that the form was correct and they get rolled

No argument here. Often a runner puts in a bad one and it's a signal that it's campaign has come to an end.

But in this particular example, the last run at MV was just so bad you would have to ignore it when assessing the horses form. I certainly did, and looking at the price, a lot of others did as well.

If Ken Callendar had come out before the race and said "if Mr O'Ceirin wins this there should be an inquiry" I would have no problem. But, as I have shown with the Chris Waller example, he is "Mr 20/20 hindsight" , and has been so for many years.

KC is an excellent form assessor - on Saturday his best was Madam Nash, and his best value bet was Pretty Famous. But his commentary on racing administration matters falls well short of the standards he sets with his tipping. He is always negative, and he seems to go out of his way to be nasty sometimes.

Congratulations to the Maher stable on their Grafton Cup win.

Offline Jeunes

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« 2013-Jul-15, 10:10 PM Reply #29 »
The racing administration is questionable. I sometimes think if you are a racing figure of note, people are always prepared to forgive your transgressions. In most industries this would never happen especially in a position of trust(?).

The RVL enquiry in Oliver was a disgrace. How on earth could they have allowed him to come back after 9 months is a mystery to me and letting him ride through the spring carnival was a joke. It took a non racing journalist to break the news which speaks volumes of the racing media. Look at the Waterhouse / Singleton stoush, it just fizzled out. If the right questions were asked, we may have a more interesting version of what happened especially with the Johns and Robbo accounts.

The breeding industry needs to be cleaned out too. How can you buy your stallion's progeny at an inflated price then syndicate the horse at a lower price but the average price of your progeny is inflated because of your purchase. Also don't get me started on hidden commissions. Even the real estate industry is more regulated than bidding at the yearling sales. If the bookies pay turnover tax why can't the breeders pay a % to the race clubs too?

All this money is being spent on Randwick for what? It gets filled 3 or 4 times a year at the max. More could have been spent on the track surfaces instead.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Jul-22, 10:41 PM Reply #30 »
Anyone able to help with betting flucs from the last at Hawkesbury yesterday?

Offline VoRogue

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« 2013-Jul-23, 12:11 AM Reply #31 »
best i can come up with is what sportingbet are showing in their results

best fluc $11

SP  $7.50

best tote was $9.20

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Jul-23, 07:43 AM Reply #32 »
Thanks vo, that sheds some light on it. I will read the report today but the ride on the heavily backed winner was superb whilst his brothers ride on one of the main dangers was diabolically bad

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Jul-23, 08:28 AM Reply #33 »
Mmm, no mention at all from the stewards regarding the ride of Nathan Berry but a swab was taken from his horse for some reason.
I suggest they swab the jock and follow the money trail, as pete would say

Not suggesting anything wrong but this is the type of thing they should be investigating

Offline usernametaken

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« 2013-Jul-24, 07:07 PM Reply #34 »
On course flucs were      7, 11, 8, 7.5.

Brothers mount      13, 13, 11, 10.

So the answer is a pineapple.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Jul-24, 07:36 PM Reply #35 »
Thanks username

From what I believe,  it was the connections of the beaten horse that resulted in it's price coming in. They were clearly unaware that Nathan was going to ride it so poorly but seeing the plunge on the brothers horse you'd certainly want to cancel your own bets

Very smelly. The stewards didn't join the dots
« Last Edit: 2013-Jul-24, 07:38 PM by wily ole dog »

Offline usernametaken

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« 2013-Jul-25, 06:39 PM Reply #36 »
No trouble Wily.
If you are ever chasing official on course flucs in pretty much real time try this link:

https://www.topsport.com.au/

It also has a past results section.

Unibet is also good, but a fair bit slower than the first site, but that could just be my pathetic internet connection.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2013-Jul-27, 06:53 AM Reply #37 »


Please tell me: what are the new local rules that 'Our Pete' says will become national?

Have I missed something about new rules to protect the integrity of the racing industry?

If not  -- then what are we to make of this from today's Terrorgraph.

"The confidence of the public and racing participants in the integrity of racing is a paramount objective of the Board of Racing NSW,'' V'landys said.

"In introducing these local rules, Racing NSW has been conscious of persons’ individual rights and the need to adhere to the Anti-Discrimination Law. First and foremost, persons must be treated as individuals and their rights must be respected.

"However, the integrity of thoroughbred racing is fundamental to the multi-billion dollar thoroughbred racing industry which has over 50,000 participants in NSW.

"They are consistent with the protocols in place in the corporate world and are intended to ensure that the thoroughbred racing industry has the best practices in place to maintain the confidence of racing participants and the public in the integrity of racing.''

V'landys said he expects other racing jurisdictions around Australia to adopt the rule changes.


http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/superracing/eddie-hayson-facing-australia-wide-betting-ban-unless-he-answers-questions-about-more-joyous-affair/story-fni2gegf-1226686531846

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2013-Jul-27, 09:52 AM Reply #38 »


What was meant is clarified -- but questions remain on enforcement

RNSW stewards mentioned 'new rules' on 2KSKY this morning and the following is reproduced from the RNSW site.

All good  tough stuff but the next question is about finding the offenders -- and as since time immemorial the answers are about what is blowin in, and out of, the bookmakers bags.

We will be convinced that there is substance to these good intentions only when there is a system in place to expose the beneficiaries of apparently surprisingly 'lucky' bets.


Conflict of Interest and Inside Information - LR110A & 110B

The Board of Racing NSW, in reviewing the recent More Joyous Inquiry, has taken action to ensure that the thoroughbred racing industry has in place the appropriate Rules dealing with the issues of conflict of interest and inside information.

The confidence of the public and racing participants in the integrity of racing is a paramount objective of the Board of Racing NSW.

Accordingly, Racing NSW has introduced the attached Local Rules 110A and 110B dealing with inside information and conflicts of interest.

        [see the new rules: http://www.racingnsw.com.au/site/_content/document/00001074-source.pdf]

In introducing these Local Rules, Racing NSW has been conscious of persons’ individual rights and the need to adhere to the Anti-Discrimination Law. First and foremost, persons must be treated as individuals and their rights must be respected.

However, the integrity of thoroughbred racing is fundamental to the multi-billion dollar thoroughbred racing industry which has over 50,000 participants in New South Wales.

These Local Rules were drafted with the assistance of Senior Counsel specialising in anti-discrimination and administrative law in order to ensure that they do not discriminate against any individuals or class of persons.

They are consistent with the protocols in place in the corporate world and are intended to ensure that the thoroughbred racing industry has the best practices in place to maintain the confidence of racing participants and the public in the integrity of racing.

They also complement the Cheating at Gambling provisions in the Crimes Act 1900.

Racing NSW will submit a proposal to the Australian Racing Board for these Rules to be adopted on a national basis.

In the meantime, Racing NSW considers it critical that the proper Rules and procedures are in place in New South Wales, hence the adoption of these Local Rules.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Jul-27, 11:04 AM Reply #39 »
good points peter

with that in mind I have emailed the good people at racingintegrity@racingnsw.com.au to enquire about their lack of interest in the last at Hawkesbury last Sunday

Offline Noodle

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« 2013-Jul-27, 02:42 PM Reply #40 »
Geez, it looked like they chased Octavia pretty hard! Some hard hitting questions will no doubt be asked of every jockey behind the backed off the map favourite. I think I could have gone faster in a wheelchair!

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2013-Aug-03, 08:44 PM Reply #41 »


Smoking out the rats -- what is the story behind the new TAB rewards card?


In NSW this week there has been, next to TAB terminals, a stack of invitations to register for a rewards card -- and to start scanning your cash bets to get flyer-points that will be eligible for rewards -- it looks like a 'number one club' for cash punters.

While there is nothing wrong and probably something good with that offer -- the bets that I will be interested in are the substantial (winning) cash bets for which the punter does not present the card.

I may be getting sleepy but did Tabcorp publicise this scheme -- and is it also offered in Victoria?

What has TAB said about this?

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Aug-03, 10:51 PM Reply #42 »
wrong thread pete. this is about actual races

Offline philby42

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« 2013-Aug-03, 11:26 PM Reply #43 »
Pete, everyhing you need to know about Tab rewards can be found he https://www.numberoneclub.com.au

With respect your question about Victorian customers my understanding is that it is coming in the near future.

Hope that helps.

Cheers,

Philby

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2013-Aug-04, 06:35 PM Reply #44 »


Rat smelling is the right thread for me


......and the scent of rats is strongest around those that place bets that, on reflection, look to be  surprisingly insightful in terms of form reversals.


I have long been keen to have large cash bets with TABs identified............... card-identifiers will help find the insider-traders, possibly the CCTV footage of those that don't identify themselves when placing large bets otherwise entitled to rewards.

The concern here is for stings managed off course and milking the TAB pools around the nation -- only when the details of the 'surprisingly' winning bets are collated does a pattern emerge of links to connections.

I have been a member of the number1 club as an account holder for some years -- last week was the first time that  I came across a separate punter identification card  for cash bets and I am interested to know if it is new or how long that offer has been on the table.

I was a little disappointed to only learn by accident that Number1 club members have to 'opt in' separately to get the 'double points' offer for exotic bets in August -- when were we told that and where?

 

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Aug-04, 06:41 PM Reply #45 »
well pete, find a smelly race and highlight it. The rest you have written is political window dressing from you.

Put up or shut up is the function of this thread :beer:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2013-Aug-04, 09:06 PM Reply #46 »


This RTA forum is no place to lay charges let alone prosecute and convict.

......... anyone, including me,  talking through their kick is no way to administer racing integrity.

Rather the responsibility lies with the stewards in each state being given the authority, and the political and funding support,  to find and prosecute the rorters.

Tabcorp has a database of evidence of insider trading -- but, claiming 'commercial in confidence', there is no confidence that Tabcorp either looks for it intelligently or reports it when it is found. 

Betfair seems to do better but there is no money in Betfair.

Either way, building a case against the insider-traders will be a painstaking, many-race exercise.

It will take time to identify the patterns in some punters knowing when to bet and when not to bet and linking those patterns to the better and worse performances of horses suspected of being manipulated.

...........this is a proper job....we need Sherlocks, Perrys and Rumpoles and anyone else with commonsense given the resources to get it done.

TAB punters will get no surprises when the offenders are identified  and convicted.




Offline whispering

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« 2013-Aug-04, 09:42 PM Reply #47 »
What about the ones that lose

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2013-Aug-05, 08:12 AM Reply #48 »


Rats do not always get the cheese

Evidence of pattern-manipulation betting activity will also be relevant when the plot comes unstuck and the horse loses.

The evidence to support a manipulation prosecution will be a carefully accumulated set of statistics indicating intention -- but the 'tip-off' will come from the successful stunts.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2013-Aug-05, 01:00 PM Reply #49 »



As Antitab stated on another thread. What are the stewards going to do about this. Keep their head in the sand?



Stewards claim they look at and use Betfair , if they do Under the Sun is a perfect case for an enquiry. 9/2 was available for plenty late on Betfair..

Race of limited pace, sat 3 wide while 60/1 stablemate led. It struck me that certain someones were very confident that the race would be run that way which was in complete contrast to previous start.


Very smelly performance.


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