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Offline Peter Mair

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O.P. « 2020-Nov-28, 07:11 PM »

SHAYNE MONTGOMERY: MONTY'S TOP 5

It is well beyond time for Shayne Montgomery to be recognized as a very competent racing analyst.

Under the 'byline' MONTY'S TOP 5 in the Sydney Morning Herald on Saturdays, Shayne publishes 5 selections for the races to be run in Sydney and Melbourne that day.

On my reckoning, and on the evidence, he is the benchmark 'tipster' in Australia ........... as such, he is a 'quality control' monitor of the metropolitan races run in Sydney and Melbourne on Saturdays.

.............. not surprisingly .......... his tips are better for races run in Sydney than in Melbourne.

Put differently ...... if Shayne Montgomery does not 'get it right' ........... the racing is 'not right'.

 

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Nov-28, 08:14 PM Reply #1 »


SHAYNE MONTGOMERY: AN ASTONISHING PERFORMANCE TODAY

Considering quadrella bets, including 5 selections in each leg is simply ‘too many’ – choices have to be made ........ working rules of thumb focus on Monty’s ‘top 3’ ........ except, for early 3yro races and the ‘highway (robbery) races in Sydney, include the 5 (+ any late mail).

For the Races run at Rosehill today ............. including the ‘top 3’ (after scratchings) ..... returned the EQ, paying $9,000, the main quadrella, paying, $4,000 and the Big6........... paying near $150,000.

For the races run in Melbourne, at ‘The Vale (of tears)’,  Monty’s top 3 returned $2,000 for the EQ and three of the four legs of the main Quadrella  ....... in the one ‘miss’ .. the 8th ............. his top 3 selections ran  2nd,3rd& 4th .............

Monty’s performance, in Sydney especially, routinely performs well .............. but not so well in Melbourne where inflated fields running on unfair tracks defy sensible analysis based on disclosed form.

Offline fours

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« 2020-Nov-28, 09:46 PM Reply #2 »
Peter,

Think you will find in small fields almost any random number generator of 5 horses per race will do just as well.

Variance alone means in bigger fields the occasional  big day will occur as well for the same.

You know what they say about broken clocks being right...

Obviously beyond your IQ to realise this with out having to have it pointed out to you.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2020-Nov-29, 08:51 AM by fours »

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Nov-29, 07:08 AM Reply #3 »
Another way of putting it is that monty picked half the field in many races. Melbourne  Quaddy paid $900
5x5x5x5 = $625 outlay :confused1:
« Last Edit: 2020-Nov-29, 07:10 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline Arsenal

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« 2020-Nov-30, 08:51 AM Reply #4 »
Newspaper tipsters have their good and bad days like the rest of us ...there's no crystal ball ...on Saturday only one of the three CM tipsters Jarred Timms found a  winner on top at Rosehill Greysful Glamour and Two Big Fari ...at MV best result to Chris Vernuccio with a very respectable 5 /9 on top.... back home at Doomben the first three winners were tipped on top by Nathan Exelby one of the three "experts" but that was the end of the section except for Jared Timms who stuck with Niedorp in the last ....how they missed the last run of See Marie is a mystery......another top effort by Jim Byrne who also saluted on Beachbreak .

Giddy Up :beer:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Dec-02, 04:09 PM Reply #5 »

Another blinder at Gosford today

Six races ............. 3 on top, 2 second selections and one third ......... early Q 165, main Q 215, B6 465.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-02, 05:44 PM Reply #6 »
Field sizes of 6,10,6, 8,10,9  With 5 picks per race and a quaddie div of $215. Early quaddie $165  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:


A pool of a pathetic 12k because people have sweet F.A interest in your small field nonsense   :lol:   :lol:


Offline gunbower

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« 2020-Dec-02, 09:00 PM Reply #7 »
Wily as you and me both know these forms of betting are inherently not as attractive if the size of the field is reduced to single figures The possibility of an attractive payout grinds interest to a minimum. Hopefully before your mate departs this planet  a semblance of intelligence will permeate his thought process. Probably unlikely ; but never give up hope.

Offline Antitab#

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« 2020-Dec-03, 04:54 AM Reply #8 »
Looking at quaddie pools against field size would be an interesting exercise and I suspect it would show Pete is in the minority and must punters prefer large fields.

My expectation is the larger the field size the larger the pools, I wonder if anyone has the data.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Dec-03, 06:30 AM Reply #9 »

Pete the punters pal

.............. most punters like the prospect of winning occasionally .............an unlikely outcome for Saturday given the inflated fields lining up  at Pakenham and Rosehill ........... check the outcomes for last year.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-03, 07:28 AM Reply #10 »
Wily as you and me both know these forms of betting are inherently not as attractive if the size of the field is reduced to single figures The possibility of an attractive payout grinds interest to a minimum. Hopefully before your mate departs this planet  a semblance of intelligence will permeate his thought process. Probably unlikely ; but never give up hope.

Well, it didn’t take long did it  :lol:

He’s made a goose of himself again

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-03, 07:46 AM Reply #11 »
Looking at quaddie pools against field size would be an interesting exercise and I suspect it would show Pete is in the minority and must punters prefer large fields.

My expectation is the larger the field size the larger the pools, I wonder if anyone has the data.

Well, given that Peter & his mounty just spent $625 to obtain his $165 quaddy I suspect you are right  :whistle:

Online Maximus

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« 2020-Dec-03, 09:03 AM Reply #12 »
Looking at quaddie pools against field size would be an interesting exercise and I suspect it would show Pete is in the minority and must punters prefer large fields.

My expectation is the larger the field size the larger the pools, I wonder if anyone has the data.

Yes that would certainly be interesting. I do reckon there would still be a fair size group who prefer small size quaddie fields just so they can collect a dividend - regardless of whether they are actually getting value or not. Obviously that is a long term losing approach.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-03, 07:55 PM Reply #13 »
Miserable dividends from small fields will only see quaddies disappear. Like the duet, trio and exactas. People don’t give shit about those bet types.

The  only reason punters take F4s and quaddies is for the big return

Idiot Mair is too ignorant and self serving to be aware of it......punters advocate  :lol just someone looking to line his own pockets with a well paying gig :bulb:

They woke up to him years ago :wavecry

Offline Gintara

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« 2020-Dec-05, 12:55 PM Reply #14 »
I do reckon there would still be a fair size group who prefer small size quaddie fields just so they can collect a dividend

Isn't that what flexi betting achieves? Put your spend on regardless of the %

Online Maximus

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« 2020-Dec-05, 08:11 PM Reply #15 »
Isn't that what flexi betting achieves? Put your spend on regardless of the %

Most definitely - for those who bet that way.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-05, 08:24 PM Reply #16 »
How did Mounties 625 tips perform in getting the $566quaddy🤔

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Dec-06, 01:19 PM Reply #17 »

MONTY played another blinder in Sydney and Melbourne

In Sydney Monty had both quinellas with his first 3 selections 3 on top, 3 2nd&3rd  $120 & $1,500 ....four trifectas and one F4.

The surprise was at Packenham ..... again both quadrellas  $700& $550 ...........three on top, three2nd, and one each of 3rd,4th&5th ...including two F4s.

.........it does not get any better than that.



Offline fours

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« 2020-Dec-06, 01:30 PM Reply #18 »
IDIOT,

The quad totals are losing and you claim it does not get any better than that.

Fours

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Dec-06, 02:02 PM Reply #19 »
IDIOT,

The quad totals are losing and you claim it does not get any better than that.

Fours


Inappropriate way to address a forum member emthdown

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-06, 02:03 PM Reply #20 »
Mountie paid out $625 to get $120 back

Great work Mair :clap2: :clap2: :clap2:

Offline fours

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« 2020-Dec-06, 05:25 PM Reply #21 »
I Totally agree with you.

But he deserves it through the repeated bully actions week after week of posting the same wrong information.

I did point out the plain error he is calling the best it can get - how would you describe such an error repeated for the 100th time.

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-06, 07:24 PM Reply #22 »
Fours, many moons ago the failed administrator actually answered a question. I asked him why he comes here and nowhere else to post his brain farts.

His answer was that he knows insiders read this forum....of which, I am one   :lol:   :lol:  :lol, anyways he thinks he can push his barrow for a new gig. The only problem is that the goose doesn’t realise he is making himself unemployable due to the stupidity he displays   :lol:

What he doesn’t also realise is that the only reason they monitor his farts is from a legal perspective  :shutup:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Dec-07, 07:43 AM Reply #23 »

AN EACH WAY BET ........... DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS


“Upon mature reflection, it is increasingly looking as though angry reactions to a social media ......[are a mistake]...........  lashing out broke one of the cardinal rules of social media. A political strategist says, he always advises ‘not to feed the trolls’. It is best not to bite because you only magnify their message and give them the attention they were looking for in the first place.’”

Online wily ole dog

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« 2020-Dec-07, 08:54 AM Reply #24 »
Yes Peter, you are indeed a troll. Time to go away


Signs Someone Is Trolling


Refusal to acknowledge evidence: Even when presented with hard, cold facts, they ignore this and pretend like they never saw it.


Dismissive, condescending tone:


Seeming obliviousness: They seem oblivious that most people are in disagreement with them. Also, trolls rarely get mad or provoked.

Someone who distorts facts to paint their own narrative
« Last Edit: 2020-Dec-07, 08:57 AM by wily ole dog »


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