Author Topic: SHAYNE MONTGOMERY: MONTYS TOP 5 (Read 3806 times)

nemisis · « 2020-Dec-07, 02:28 PM **Reply #25** »

Wily, I think you would be seen as more the troll on this thread.
I can't see that you have ever really understood how Shayne Montgomery's "top 5" work.
He has framed a market around his top 5 picks.....it would be up to any follower to place their bets around value according to his market......there would be day's when it would be obviously foolish to pour big money into the quaddy.....it's just not how it works.

If you were time poor and needed to be pouring money into this caper......you could do a lot worse than follow Monty.
Monty certainly doesn't have the luxury of watching any interesting market moves around C Waller's runners in the last couple of minutes.....esp. when Chris has the opening fav

.....stunts galore!......doesn't even raise an eyebrow these days

fours · « 2020-Dec-07, 02:36 PM **Reply #26** »

nemisis,

Mair claimed you could not make a profit backing Wallers horses.

I put up a thread which made excellent profits on Wallers horses - without worrying about market movements after the tips were placed..

This is but one example of many. The errors from Mair just keep coming ...... and thus my description of him.

Fours

nemisis · « 2020-Dec-07, 03:00 PM **Reply #27** »

I must have missed that thread Fours......understanding and profiting from form around the C Waller stable.....I'd like to see that.
To be honest Fours I still haven't quite got my head around Midterm winning a Melbourne Cup.

fours · « 2020-Dec-07, 03:15 PM **Reply #28** »

nemisis,

Use the search function to find the thread.

Midterm has obviously lost a few lengths given what we saw this prep.

He missed making the field by 1 either last year or the year before for the MC.

I get many such tips wrong and glad to admit it ( quick frame this jfc ) but at 50/1 plus I can do so and still show a handsome profit.

Fours

wily ole dog · « 2020-Dec-07, 04:26 PM **Reply #29** »

Quote from: nemisis on 2020-Dec-07, 02:28 PM

Wily, I think you would be seen as more the troll on this thread.
I can't see that you have ever really understood how Shayne Montgomery's "top 5" work.
He has framed a market around his top 5 picks.....it would be up to any follower to place their bets around value according to his market......there would be day's when it would be obviously foolish to pour big money into the quaddy.....it's just not how it works.

Nem, I’m fully aware how Montys 5 works.

The issue is that Mair cherry pick picks and claims quaddy & F4 success without actually disclosing which of the 5 he would use. Often it’s all sometimes it’s not.
If he is going to spruik an actual success, he needs to declare his tips or provide proof as I have numerous times.
He fails to do that as he knows he will be exposed

If you were time poor and needed to be pouring money into this caper......you could do a lot worse than follow Monty.

Possibly so but where is the proof. It is certainly not coming from Mair even though it’s his go to .....when it works.

As to trolling. This is a discussion forum. It is not trolling to challenge a thought process by another poster. I’m the one providing the proof.
Mair has admitted he uses this place for his own gain but you support that

Mair regurgitates the same thing even when he is clearly wrong. When proof is provided that he is wrong.
His posts are akin to insisting it will rain in Sydney today without looking at the facts, ignoring the result and repeating tomorrow and the next and the next until he gets it right then blurting our an “I told you so”

Maximus · « 2020-Dec-07, 05:35 PM **Reply #30** »

Quote from: nemisis on 2020-Dec-07, 02:28 PM

If you were time poor and needed to be pouring money into this caper......you could do a lot worse than follow Monty.

Shayne Montgomery seems to have a good idea of the game - its not his fault that Peter decided to hitch his wagon to him. Pretty confident he wouldn't be claiming success if a quaddie dividend paid less than the outlay!

Peter Mair · « 2020-Dec-07, 06:46 PM **Reply #31** »

............ as I was saying:

DO NOT FEED TROLLS

A political strategist says, he always advises ‘not to feed the trolls’. It is best not to bite because you only magnify their message and give them the attention they were looking for in the first place.’”

Maximus · « 2020-Dec-07, 07:07 PM **Reply #32** »

Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Dec-07, 06:46 PM

A political strategist says, he always advises ‘not to feed the trolls’. It is best not to bite because you only magnify their message and give them the attention they were looking for in the first place.’”[/i]

Well political strategism isn't exactly rocket science - treat the average person as an idiot, grease the necessary palms and you're in business!

fours · « 2020-Dec-07, 08:46 PM **Reply #33** »

Time for the moderators to do their job,

I wont call Peter an idiot any more as I believe in free speech.

He has every right to post idiotic posts and it is only because he had done this over and over and over like a troll that i eventually lost patience and called a spade a spade.

Moderators you know the various types of trolling behaviour ( nothing wrong with occasional spats ) and we have some here.

Just limit his posts on some subjects please - remind him we have seen this said x times already this year and you are abusing free speech and this site as a result.

Some of his posts are okay - he claimed you cant win backing just Waller and he claimed you cant win in big fields. Nothing wrong with a poster thinking and posting that. But evevry week? My responses showing those claims to be rubbish and others doing similar things may help some readers.

Fours

nemisis · « 2020-Dec-08, 06:18 AM **Reply #34** »

Wily, I understand the frustration around Peter, at times.
I get how annoying it would be after you like and back Perfect Jewel to have someone cry foul!
I felt it the day I backed Bedford......I sat around all day to see the son of Tavistock go around in the last race...while still feeling good about things no-one wants to read nonsense.

I'll never forget the day I backed Gondobelle at $100+(years and years ago).......so happy with myself and some jealous sad sack at the TAB shouted "fluke"

Peter Mair · « 2020-Dec-08, 07:09 AM **Reply #35** »

MONTY: a benchmark for the quality and fairness of Saturday metropolitan racing.

.............. for consistent performance in selecting and ranking the likely best performers in Sydney and Melbourne on Saturdays, Shayne Montgomery is a standout for competence..... has been for years!

Routinely my own assessments say 'Monty's cant win' ........... routinely I am astounded when they do.

A sensible rule of thumb is to include Monty's 'top 3' in quadrella bets ........... going a little wider for 'HWY' races and races for immature 3yros. [the 'return' on the 81 combinations is 1.25% per $1 staked............ it would not be sensible to bet 625 combinations ......... choose and choose wisely]

The point in highlighting Monty is to expose racing that is either substandard or unfair .... week to week.

wily ole dog · « 2020-Dec-08, 07:30 PM **Reply #36** »

Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Dec-08, 07:09 AM

MONTY: a benchmark for the quality and fairness of Saturday metropolitan racing.

.............. for consistent performance in selecting and ranking the likely best performers in Sydney and Melbourne on Saturdays, Shayne Montgomery is a standout for competence..... has been for years!

Routinely my own assessments say 'Monty's cant win' ........... routinely I am astounded when they do.

A sensible rule of thumb is to include Monty's 'top 3' in quadrella bets ........... going a little wider for 'HWY' races and races for immature 3yros. [the 'return' on the 81 combinations is 1.25% per $1 staked............ it would not be sensible to bet 625 combinations ......... choose and choose wisely]

The point in highlighting Monty is to expose racing that is either substandard or unfair .... week to week.

Well you fail to do that constantly and cherry picking montys result to suit your agenda is stupid in the extreme

If monty picks a roughie you laud him for it whilst crying corruption in your next breath

Peter Mair · « 2020-Dec-12, 06:53 PM **Reply #37** »

..............Also respect your own judgement

Normally Monty beats me ........ but today I got lucky ............. mainly on the main Quadrella races in Sydney ...........an opening balance of $90 became $2,800 ............. albeit with the reinvestment of $30 from 4 cents on the earlyQ in Sydney.

The keys to the door were 'heavy on' Greysful Glamour ........... which Monty did not include ...... and Kirwans Lane & I Am Vinnie which were Monty's 5th selections.

[....to my shame I wasted some $15 (of the 90) on the MN program where Monty included only 4 of the winners in the 8 quadrella races ............ in Sydney he had 6 of the eight]

Maximus · « 2020-Dec-13, 10:05 AM **Reply #38** »

Quote from: Peter Mair on 2020-Dec-12, 06:53 PM

The keys to the door were 'heavy on' Greysful Glamour ........... which Monty did not include ...... and Kirwans Lane & I Am Vinnie which were Monty's 5th selections.

I Am Vinnie! Twelfth, twelfth then couldn't even win at Ballarat, then they sneak it up to Sydney and pull off a sting!

Hope the stewards get to the bottom of who knew what and when about this smokey - including CCTV footage, phone transcripts, bank records and fingerprints of any smarties/insiders who landed the quaddie.

wily ole dog · « 2020-Dec-13, 07:53 PM **Reply #39** »

Or just look at the form guide. It was staring punters in the face 😉

Maximus · « 2020-Dec-14, 12:02 PM **Reply #40** »

Quote from: wily ole dog on 2020-Dec-13, 07:53 PM

Or just look at the form guide. It was staring punters in the face 😉

Peter Mair · « 2020-Dec-26, 06:24 PM **Reply #41** »

Monty performed well in Sydney today ........... but could not make head not tail of Melbourne.

In Sydney, Monty had the winner in 7 of the 8 quadrella races and in the one he missed had 2nd,3rd &4th.

In Melbourne, Monty missed the winner in 4 of the 8 quadrella races and did not even select a placegetter in 3 of the main quadrella races.

nemisis · « 2020-Dec-27, 10:20 AM **Reply #42** »

The track yesterday at Randwick was a beautiful racing surface so horses will really let down on it.
Not so at Caulfield, just like Flemington when the track dries out many horses can't let down.....that's why the results can get a bit rough on hard ground.

Tavidance $2.25

...... is obviously a very good, consistent horse but has failed on hard ground before.....just like plenty of the Tavistocks before him.
If I owned him I would have asked Mick Price to scratch him

There are plenty of very good races in him on a softer surface but if they keep running him on hard ground......they won't have a horse left.

I didn't back him but Defibrillate was big odds with the winning record he has.
Keep it in your black book boys, the Shocking breed seem to handle the very firm ground.

wily ole dog · « 2020-Dec-27, 11:32 AM **Reply #43** »

Could Defibrillate progress to an Australian Cup, perhaps?

Gintara · « 2020-Dec-27, 10:33 PM **Reply #44** »

To be fair Tavidance was set a task after missing the kick and settling further back than expected.

wily ole dog · « 2020-Dec-28, 08:01 AM **Reply #45** »

He was beside the winner on the turn though

nemisis · « 2020-Dec-28, 08:09 AM **Reply #46** »

There is a good interview on Racing.com with Mick Price re Tavidance......on Sat morning.
It supports my argument about the hard Metro tracks in Melbourne.
To me Mick Price was virtually declaring Tavidance ......if he had got early use of Caulfield while the track still had moisture.....but he went around in R8
I don't think he went through the line that well.

Mick Price knows a good horse and I'd say he thinks Tavidance is a pretty good one..... big money does go on him at times.
Some fairly big Autumn plans for him with a slightly higher rating.

Mick described him as a "sound horse" but does get "heat in the fetlocks"

.....so let's hope he is tough.

Peter Mair · « 2021-Jan-10, 06:44 AM **Reply #47** »

Monty did well again yesterday

What was surprising was how well he did with the Gold Coast .......... with which he is likely less familiar.

In Sydney he missed the Hastings King but got the rest ................. a reminder to always have a saver on 'double acceptors'.

[Mercifully Monty did not tip for Melbourne .............. where even the experts rated the meeting 'no bet' and not up to standard.]

nemisis · « 2021-Jan-10, 07:53 AM **Reply #48** »

Quote from: nemisis on 2020-Dec-27, 10:20 AM

I didn't back him but Defibrillate was big odds with the winning record he has.
Keep it in your black book boys, the Shocking breed seem to handle the very firm ground.

The Gold Coast is just hyped up nonsense!......Monty would have preferred Melbourne.

What about this fellow yesterday

7 wins from 11 starts and looking a bit of a star.......very comfortable and looked to really travel the whole race.

The camp are trying to keep a lid on him but let's hope the big fellow can stay sound.

wily ole dog · « 2021-Jan-10, 09:45 AM **Reply #49** »

5 stabs and mounty still left out King of Hastings

Best he expand to 8 tips per race