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tab.com.au Tipping Comp #25 - Discussion - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: tab.com.au Tipping Comp #25 - Discussion  (Read 244 times)

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Offline PoisonPen7

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O.P. « 2018-Sep-12, 03:24 AM »
Proposed schedule

Date Feature/s Notes
15/09/18 GEORGE MAIN/MAKYBE DIVA
22/09/18 GOLDEN ROSE/RUPERT CLARKE
29/09/18 EPSOM/METROPOLITAN
30/09/18 UNDERWOOD STKS Sunday
06/10/18 SPRING CHAMPION/TURNBULL STKS
13/10/18 EVEREST/CAULFIELD GUINEAS
20/10/18 CAULFIELD CUP DAY
27/10/18 COX PLATE DAY
03/11/18 DERBY DAY
06/11/18 MELBOURNE CUP DAY

We would finish on Derby Day so that any donated prizes can be paid out.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Sep-12, 03:30 AM Reply #1 »
I have to make a call on the format.

Originally thought it was cut and dry with the points format but a few people have come out in favour of the $10 ew format.

My preference is to retain $10 each way because I have the software I wrote for it and it would save me an extra step (with the points format you have to calculate the bets then order the finishing positions and score points which you then have to keep track of.....my advice to Calvo when he started was to keep it simple and while it was a great comp to play in I empathized with the amount of work that went into it - he often could not post the results for many days and fear I would get into the same).

If anyone is seriously leaning one way or the other please express a view here so we can discuss.

Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-12, 05:43 AM Reply #2 »
PP7,

Winner is seriously leaning to the left!

Fours

Whichever method is fine by me - clearly Turf deli did well in the 10 to $15 area which Calvo's rules favoured.


Offline Brian Mc

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« 2018-Sep-12, 07:59 AM Reply #3 »
 I think it's a good idea if updates are out as soon as possible so my suggestion is that we go with your existing software and do the $10ew.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-12, 08:00 AM Reply #4 »
My choice would be to go with whatever the compiler of the scores wants to go with :beer:

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-12, 08:08 AM Reply #5 »
I get the impression that the issue with the $10ew method is if people are way behind they start picking 100/1 shots late to try and fluke it. I personally don't have an issue with that and if you actually treat it like a competition I think it's fair game.

If others are concerned about that aspect you could place a limit on the win dividend of say $41 or $51. That would still give people a good return on their roughies but restrict to a certain extent the longshot 'bombing'.


Offline ratsack

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« 2018-Sep-12, 11:09 AM Reply #6 »
as stated by Wenona

i like 10x10 for the reasons stated .
cheers

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Sep-12, 06:10 PM Reply #7 »
I liked Calvo's 'grand prix' style.

Only thing I didn't like with the $10ew style was multiple picks in the same race, that's really throwing the rice at the barn door and hoping the rough result lobs  :chin:

Regardless I'll play to rules provided.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Sep-13, 03:23 AM Reply #8 »
I get the impression that the issue with the $10ew method is if people are way behind they start picking 100/1 shots late to try and fluke it. I personally don't have an issue with that and if you actually treat it like a competition I think it's fair game.

If others are concerned about that aspect you could place a limit on the win dividend of say $41 or $51. That would still give people a good return on their roughies but restrict to a certain extent the longshot 'bombing'.

Thanks for the input guys.

As Wenona says it is a fair game. There is no advantage coming the way of someone who picks roughies.

Indeed this is probably the best way to attack one of these competitions.

If you think of the results spread at the end of the comp looking like the normal distribution of the bell curve, those who tip consistently without taking on too much tipping risk will go well and will probably finish toward the right of the average.

The winner is typically a statistical outlier who has jagged one taking on a lot of risk. When I won a few comps ago in 2016 I only won because I jagged old Lennybe at 100-1 in a non descript race in Adelaide.

It is all about risk and reward. Whilst the winner will probably come from someone tipping a roughie along the line there will be a lot of people who try this and fail i.e. it doesn't follow that if you pick roughies all the time you will get one in the comp.

And can I also point out that not every comp does a roughie tipper get up.

We will stick with the $10 each way for this comp.

If we were to have a points system comp then I'd like to restrict where we can pick to cut down on the amount of collation work to be done - if it were this comp I'd probably restrict it to capital cities with an extra couple of additions (Goldie, Newcastle/Kembla plus Vic country meeting).

Maybe one for the next comp.

Cheers.

 


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Sep-13, 03:27 AM Reply #9 »
If anyone is kind enough to donate a prize could you post here thanks?

I'll add a prize also (will wait to see what is on offer)

Typical prize categories will be 2nd and 3rd place, winner of the place comp, best place price, etc.


Offline turfdeli

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« 2018-Sep-13, 07:50 PM Reply #10 »
Preference was for the $10 EW format with points per week - that way even if you do just fluke one long shot its not enough to win the entire competition, but gives you a chance of a catch up late in the season.


Will throw in a $50 Melnbourne shared quaddie for most number of winners

Offline ratsack

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« 2018-Sep-13, 10:04 PM Reply #11 »
My usual thanks PP7
Ie $55 best priced place
 :beer:
Well done and thanks to Calvo for his efforts over the previous comps
We still have $20 left to punt
Maybe this weekend Calvo ?
Good luck all

Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-14, 04:15 AM Reply #12 »
Well its that time of year....

My prize is a $50 share in my MC First Four bet(s). I will mention in advance that I will let you know what horses mean we win NIL but that's that. If you don't like the terms you do not have to accept the prize! Return was nil anyway last year when Dettori rode worse than a 4kg apprentice/or to instructions.......  if you are a total cynic....

I decided not to go with the best looking tipster ( the flood of fake pictures would have been too much ) and have decided that the biggest over all return, for all 4 tips or less, added together, on Derby Day will win the prize.

Fours




« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-14, 01:38 PM by fours »


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