Author Topic: Tabcorp, Tatts Group Creative Reporting (Read 72951 times)

jfc · O.P. « 2014-Feb-06, 12:25 PM »

I think it's worthwhile to dedicate a thread to TAH and TTS ASX Reports.

As they might accidentally reveal disturbing Racing Industry trends.

Tabcorp issued its Half Year figures today.

Rather bleak.

Wagering Revenues have dropped 0.7%.

And not a syllable devoted to the Isle of Man, where it's only a matter of time before scandals emerge.

But with some effort, a truer picture can emerge.

First note this key trend.

Digital Turnover grew by 15.6% - and now has just about overtaken Retail Vic.

Therefore one would imagine Agency Commissions would drop.

Trouble is Group Operating Commissions have risen 0.9%.

This reveals that Kickbacks to Zeljko and others have increased.

While Wagering revenues have dropped!

Very Tote Tasmaniawegian.

jfc · « 2014-Feb-06, 01:11 PM **Reply #1** »

The Motley Fool has chimed in with a neat perceptive observation:

"In October management provided a first quarter trading update which stated that revenues for the three months to 30 September 2013 had increased by 3.1% on the pcp. This suggests the second quarter result must have been particularly weak given overall first half revenue growth of only 1%."

It's a subtle way of noting the key Spring Carnival season was utter carp.

http://www.fool.com.au/2014/02/06/should-you-bet-on-tabcorp-holdings-limited/

D-G · « 2014-Feb-06, 05:22 PM **Reply #2** »

Who, in their right mind, would be investing their money in either TABCORP or Tatts?

Both are sinking ships.

Both are in declining markets, in real terms, and are both throwing away any advantage they had in said market.

jfc · « 2014-Feb-07, 10:47 AM **Reply #3** »

This has little to do with figuring whether to invest in TAH or TTS.

Rather it's about finding those gems which affect all of us as punters.

For example:

Tabcorp's Attenborough is persisting with his grand illusion of:

Other (in fine print) =

Oncourse
Premium
PGI (the sole syllable relating to Isle of Man - sorry I missed that earlier)

We all know Oncourse is beyond redemption. And the Racing Fact Book spells that out (except it's a year older).

But using that older data we can estimate Other minus Oncourse.

Which leaves us only Zeljko and the 37 Dwarf Leviathans.

Said adjusted figures for turnover a

$295m 1H14
$255m 1H13

An astonishing surge of 16% !

Of course the turnover surge translates into negative revenue gain!

My bet is Max and Bruce and the rest of the Racing Media dependent on Tabcorp advertising revenue will fail to report such newsworthy snippets.

PoisonPen7 · « 2014-Feb-07, 07:11 PM **Reply #4** »

If they win that court case against the Vic Govt, the good taxpayers of Victoria will be handing over about $1.00 per share to TABCorp shareholders.

Could be a capital return in the offing?

Cannot see how the Vic Govt. can get out of it. Were there some conditions written in invisible ink?

jfc · « 2014-Aug-10, 09:26 AM **Reply #5** »

This is insane.

It's hard to imagine a bigger fiasco than Tabcorp's Internet site.

So this genius decides to inflict more of that fiasco into retail outlets.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/tabcorp-in-digital-revamp-on-totes/story-e6frg8zx-1227017184015

jfc · « 2014-Aug-12, 04:51 AM **Reply #6** »

Totalisator revenues impacted by customer
preferences shifting to Fixed Odds and
lower premium customer volumes

No prize for what I consider the biggest bombshell in Tabcorp's Secret Manx business.

Premium turnover is of course buried in Other.

And Other dropped a whopping 19% in H2!

$589.9 million Previous
$480.2 million Latest

$109.7 million Drop!

I had a vague idea that the Corporations Act, ASX and ASIC require prompt disclosure of such significant developments.

Guess I must have missed it.

https://www.tabcorp.com.au/resources.ashx/mediareleaseschilddatadocuments/849/FileName/9DD2A858A1131C7D8C377DC2C50A4847/FY14_Results_Presentation_v13.pdf

jfc · « 2014-Aug-14, 10:56 AM **Reply #7** »

The intriguing consequence of the sobering disclosure about lower premium customer volumes is the question whether those customers fell off the perch or defected.

I imagine that defection is more likely because it's hard to the keep news of failed big punter quiet.

But where on earth did they defect to!

Certainly not the Corporates.

And Tabcorp keeps very tight controls to stop them defecting to amalgamators.

So there are no legal options available.

Curiouser and curiouser.

PoisonPen7 · « 2014-Aug-14, 11:19 AM **Reply #8** »

$50 million Tatts Powerball draw tonight

pegasyber · « 2014-Aug-14, 12:33 PM **Reply #9** »

But just remember this; "that lotto is the only form of gambling where your chance of Winning the BIG one is improved only slightly, by buying a ticket. Take care.

arthur · « 2014-Aug-14, 12:59 PM **Reply #10** »

You are not mad if you do . .

AND

You are not mad if you dont

fours · « 2014-Aug-14, 01:45 PM **Reply #11** »

jfc,

I'd guess a holiay OR contract renewal 'negotiations'.....

Fours

HarmersHaven · « 2014-Aug-14, 01:53 PM **Reply #12** »

I'd guess Asia.

But 'guess' is really the right word.

jfc · « 2014-Aug-19, 05:14 AM **Reply #13** »

Luxbet appears to be one segment whose numbers Tabcorp did not discombombulate.

Therefore offering useful insights into industry developments.

Revenue (actually Punter Losses) grew by over 22%.

That impressive achievement was probably achieved by culling a few of the undesirable Punter base.

So you would expect Turnover to take a significant hit.

Yet Turnover actually grew by over 11%.

And Luxbet has managed to achieve this with comparatively very little advertising, and by being conservative.

If the vast majority of clients were not happy then those figures would not have been attained.

So the current system is succeeding far better than the rest of the industry, indeed about the only system promoting industry growth.

Yet V'landys wants to sabotage that in a fortnight.

Bubbasmith · « 2014-Aug-19, 11:10 AM **Reply #14** »

Someone might be able to confirm this, but from my understanding the Racing Industry receives a lesser distribution from Luxbet's profits than it does from pari mutuel betting conducted by Tabcorp.

If that is so, Luxbet is cannibalising into the pari mutuel arm of Tabcorp and eroding the Racing Industry's distribution.

Tabcorp might answer that argument saying that they are eating into other corporate bookies turnover and the Racing Industry is, albeit at a lower rate, still benefiting at the expense of corporate bookies, however if Luxbet's contribution to the Racing Industry is no different to any other corporate bookie that argument has less validity.

jfc · « 2014-Aug-19, 01:38 PM **Reply #15** »

To the best of my knowledge Luxbet is just like any other Corporate.

And without Corporates it's clear the Industry would be worse off than it is now.

It is the Industry that has decided to siphon off revenue to the Isle of Man.

In the process the situation has become worse for all other Punters.

No honest rational Punter just starting off would come anywhere near the Industry.

Any seasoned honest rational Punter will pack it in the moment they realise how much their punting has deteriorated through Kickbacks to the unworthy.

But at least with Corporates the emerging pool of Punters actually has a ghost of a chance.

jfc · « 2014-Aug-20, 10:46 AM **Reply #16** »

With considerable effort it's possible to uncover what Tabcorp has taken pains to cover up.

Overall wagering Revenue was up 1.1%.

But Revenue just on Fixed Odds Sports was up ~50% more than that.

Therefore Other was down.

But parts of Other like Trackside and Luxbet Sports had Revenue increases.

Suggesting that Revenue from Racing has dropped significantly!

A rather tangible testament how much customers hate Tabcorp and Racing.

$ million Revenue
+16.7 Wagering
+24.0 Sports Fixed Odds
- 7.3 Other

jfc · « 2014-Aug-21, 09:29 AM **Reply #17** »

TattsGroup figures are now being released.

At first glance the Wagering figures look particularly sick.

-2% Revenue
-7.6% EBITDA

Far worse than Tabcorp which actually grew both figures.

jfc · « 2014-Aug-21, 10:49 AM **Reply #18** »

While Tabcorp clearly fails to meet its disclosure obligations, Tatts is far worse.

In Wagering Tatts loses out big time to Tabcorp for every KPI.

Consider the sole thing Tatts presents as a positive.

Double-digit win rates on fixed-price revenue.

Perhaps no other competitor can boast that?

But probably every other competitor beats Tatts in revenue and EBITDA growth.

By following the V'landys strategy of hiking Rakes, all Tatts has accomplished is forcing its customers to flee to competitors.

jfc · « 2014-Aug-26, 11:07 AM **Reply #19** »

William Hill, whom I gather has Tom and SportingBet and another outfit here actually presents a decent report as to Australian activities.

It appears to have had a promising Half, which again augurs big problems for TattsGroup yet to be identified by local analysts.

+10% Turnover
+8% Revenue
+96% Profit
+21% Players
8.6% = Margin = Rake

The 8.6% Rake seems particularly impressive.

Once more the irrefutable story is that the vast majority of Punters like the Corporates, because they increase their flocking in that direction.

In direct contradiction of V'landys (+Kennett's) delusion.

This seems to be the sole segment of the Industry that's growing.

Yet our rulers can't seem to cop the hint.

http://www.williamhillplc.com/~/media/Files/W/William-Hill/investors/results_reports_and_presentation/2014rrp/2014-interim-result-presentation.pdf

jfc · « 2014-Aug-29, 12:08 PM **Reply #20** »

Hopefully Paddy Power will elaborate on their results media release.

Online Australia: online amounts staked up 23%, active customers up 44% and 51% more new customers. Operating profit increased 57% to €21.8m;

But once more it's a common theme:

In contrast to Vo, most of us elect to vote with our feet/mice.

Revenue up 23%, consistent with Luxbet's 22%.

Everyone bar the <1% of undesirables denied entry love Corporates.

Or maybe hate them less than they do Tabcorp or Tatts Group.

http://www.paddypowerplc.com/media/news/interim-results

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/content/general-info/about-us

jfc · « 2014-Sep-07, 11:52 AM **Reply #21** »

Quickly checking Luxbet's Rake for the last period:

717.1 Turnover
47.9 Revenue

6.68% Rake

jfc · « 2014-Oct-16, 07:33 AM **Reply #22** »

Tabcorp Q1 figures out yesterday.

The standout figure is Fixed Odds Revenue growth of 32.1%.

Now subtract the World Cup contribution to get a more like for like gain of 23.7%.

An impressive figure.

But it doesn't stop there.

Excluding Word Cup the Total Revenues were

151.9 Fixed
142.6 Vic
159.0 NSW

So this is presumably the 1st time that the Vic Tote has slumped below fixed.

And that the Tote average has slumped below Fixed.

The gravity of this should not be underestimated.

Remember that Totes are the only legal option for the biggest Players.

So rank and file Punters are fleeing the Totes at an even more alarming rate!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141015/pdf/42sww3tfv880dv.pdf

Lert · « 2014-Oct-16, 08:48 AM **Reply #23** »

That would be because of the increased rakes which V'landys assures us have no negative impact and because of the rebates being paid to the big players at the expense of average punters.

The Golden Goose has been on a slow roast for some time and someone has now turned the temperature up.
It will be well and truly cooked before they know it.

whispering · « 2014-Oct-17, 03:18 AM **Reply #24** »

Luxbet are owned by tabcorp and would they be betting into their own pools (for customers) and getting a rebate?

The TAB loses because the website is crap and there is no point in betting with them if you can get set with the corps.
the saddest thing is at some pubs i cannot do a 5 leg racing multi, only 2...