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The Big6 ...... can the small punter take it on? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: The Big6 ...... can the small punter take it on?  (Read 7458 times)

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Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Dec-01, 09:08 PM Reply #25 »

Running in the wrong direction

The question on the table has nothing to do with 'tips'.

If you understand the question, you may be pleased to see you had a win in both MN and SY.

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-02, 01:08 AM Reply #26 »
Hmmm,

Had a great day on favourites but of course the individual picks here failed - not Robinson Crusoe on that point I am sure.

Next week $25 bet - 5x more expensive and only improves things by less than 40% strike rate wise. But is it worth it?

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Dec-02, 07:27 AM Reply #27 »
Running in the wrong direction

The question on the table has nothing to do with 'tips'.

If you understand the question, you may be pleased to see you had a win in both MN and SY.


Actually Peter, I cant imagine any circumstance where I would want your tips. Wrong choice of word perhaps but as we know, you dont answer questions

As to proving your theory, you obviously cant :bulb:


« Last Edit: 2018-Dec-02, 07:34 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Dec-02, 08:01 AM Reply #28 »

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Dec-02, 03:14 PM Reply #29 »
... A REFRESH PERHAPS


http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/racing-talk/shades-of-'spinner'-big6-falls-short-in-nsw/


A refresh is certainly needed by you.

You posted this junk back in 2011. You were wrong the and wrong now  emthup

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Dec-02, 06:21 PM Reply #30 »

The work of the devil

Not sure why my expectation of the B6s paying unders was not met in either Sydney or Melbourne yesterday.

NSWTAB had a 'forecast' B6 pool of $100,00 but only show $82,000 in the event.

In both states there seems to be B6 pools under $100,000 as against $ millions for main quadrellas

.....that suggests punters sensibly shun the B6 (as they also do the 'duets')

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-02, 11:36 PM Reply #31 »
Peter Mair,

You are such a slow learner!

jfc only recently showed that it was the duet pool where the value was in Winx's last race for those that could work out 2nd and 3rd.

Every pool has it's time in the sun.

Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Dec-03, 06:16 PM Reply #32 »

Broken clocks are right twice a day

......... let me know when Winx is running next so I can place my first duet bet.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Dec-03, 07:14 PM Reply #33 »
Broken clocks are right twice a day

......... let me know when Winx is running next so I can place my first duet bet.

Typical spiteful response from Mair. No surprise itís on the back of him being wrong again  :lol:

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-08, 05:03 PM Reply #34 »
All,

Just for illustrative purposes and to show the potential a $25 bet has .... means 1 pick in one leg, 4 in one leg and 5 picks in 4 legs for 2,500 combos.

Assume I finally found the winning fav in the photo in race 4 at Pakenham today and have the rest of the winners so far up to the last race ( not that much of a challenge with none much more than 10/1 ) and my 5 picks in the last leg are 4,7,8,9,10 the Big6 divs for these are ALL $120,103.00 approximately so for the 1% we get $1,201.30.

If unsuccessful then the consolation div is received for 5% of it.

It HAS BEEN very achievable today. Not by me though as life had me doing other things today.

Fours

post script - still not achievable with "Theanswermyfriend' knocking off 2 of my picks. But the consolation dividend was $6,678.10 and 5% of that is $333.90 which is not bad for a $25 outlay when you don't actually succeed to get the desired goal. This alone makes the Big6 preferable to a quaddie bet in my view.
« Last Edit: 2018-Dec-10, 11:00 AM by fours »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Dec-09, 07:56 AM Reply #35 »

BIG LICKS ...........not BigSux?

.........again yesterday the B6 dividend in both Sydney and Melbourne paid better than the reinvestment of the 4-5 running double into the quadrella.

I am wondering if the TAB has lowered the B6 takeouts -- the early experience with B6s was clearly in favour of the RD into Quadrella.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Dec-09, 10:35 AM Reply #36 »
BIG LICKS ...........not BigSux?

.........again yesterday the B6 dividend in both Sydney and Melbourne paid better than the reinvestment of the 4-5 running double into the quadrella.

I am wondering if the TAB has lowered the B6 takeouts -- the early experience with B6s was clearly in favour of the RD into Quadrella.

Oh Peter, thanks for confirming you were wrong again.
However, instead of blaming the TAB just accept your brainfart was wrong

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-10, 11:09 AM Reply #37 »
Peter mentioned Big bucks....

IF you are game than you can consider doing ALL UPS with your Big6 bets and prepare for some white knuckle action!

Consider this the dividends potentially received have been in the area of 5/1, 13/1  to 48/1.

Accordingly two weeks in a row of receiving a dividend could see $25 grow into  $6000 or much more.

I doubt you have the intestinal fortitude to actually do it!

Even if you did it would be folly to go beyond 50% of the dividend given the dividend calculation method so for $25 that means a $1,250 bet limit.

Not overly easy to pull it off BUT..........MUCH MUCH MUCH better chances than playing lotto with your $25.00

AND I have shown that it is indeed achievable.

Fours

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-15, 09:49 AM Reply #38 »
And for the slightly bigger scale punter..

Something to consider on those days you want a bet may have a 4th cousin wedding to go to.....

$80 means for 1% you can have a single selection in one race 5 selections in 3 races and 8 selections in 2 races. You may prefer a strongly fancied horse in one race ( a black booker )but not quite the favourite. In this case its Race 6 :1. As the race day goes on .... BUT after Big 6 selections are locked in your pick may well firm into favouritism or go longer in the betting - such is common place.

But anyway for today's Big6 ( which once again has the $30,000.00 jackpot ) the selections are :-

4) 3,4,8,9,11,14,16,17  ( fav left out! )
5) 1,2,3,9,10
6) 1
7) 2,4,6,9,10
8) 1,2,7,8,9,10,12,13
9) 1,3,4,12,13

Much much steeper than the $5 with the poor strike rate but also much less than many bet on lotteries. You have declared war on the fav with your fit and ready and suited black booker - if you have done your home work well you may get a quite large reward.

Fours
ps 6,103 views when I posted - how about the 1000's of lurkers contributing?
« Last Edit: 2018-Dec-15, 02:23 PM by fours »

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-15, 11:09 AM Reply #39 »
Hmmm,

jfc may not respect my tips but the connections of Weapon do!

I mentioned that Ileft the fav out of race 4 .... and within the hour it has been scratched!

Fours

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-15, 03:35 PM Reply #40 »
 :mad:

Of course my pick ran okay but not good enough to win. You guys have no excuse to have not been on the short fav as a short study of my 'form'  this bet type so far shows the short favs I don't pick romp in and the ones I go with fail or don't get the photo finish result.....

So for interests sake lets assume you guys are still alive in the bet....

If you don't do the form you only have yourself to blame!

Fours

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Dec-15, 04:34 PM Reply #41 »
  Gee Fours you spent hours teaching us to win the FIRST FOURS and of course doing the FORM.
« Last Edit: 2018-Dec-16, 06:50 AM by pegasyber »

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-15, 06:00 PM Reply #42 »
Hmmm,

A wipe out with no excuses in the last race if one looked at the old form for the 30's winner. Obviously I failed to.

Not having the 30's winner in the 2nd last COULD be forgiven despite it being a last winner given the class jump. If you claim otherwise look at the horse it beat last time that failed to even place in a class 75 at Gawler..... today.

In my defence I had all the horses that ran behind these 2.... so I did do some form.

The most interesting thing from this is what you saw IF you bothered to look at the Big6 dividend approximate dividends - no need for the 30/1 winner to get the 116g collect.

Fours




Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Dec-15, 06:04 PM Reply #43 »
Expect silence from Mair.
His brainfart has proven wrong again

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Dec-15, 08:06 PM Reply #44 »


......expectation met .............. I have no idea of the meaning of the recent posts.

The question is a simple one -- does the reinvestment, into the winning quadrella combination, of the running double dividend on the first two legs pay more or less than the BIG SIX.

[The caveat is about the B6 pool not being distorted by 'jackpots' inflating the B6 pool]

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-15, 09:08 PM Reply #45 »
errr Peter,

Running doubles and Quaddies also have jackpots and jackpot dividend calcs when appropriate.

Erroneous arguments from you once again.

In any event you bet into the conditions known on the day - not what you might like instead.

Fours

Online fours

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« 2018-Dec-16, 09:02 AM Reply #46 »
All,

NSW TAB also has the Big6 but on its Sydney card.

Tell me you could not have picked Fell Swoop as the good horse down in the class ready to win IF you did the form properly!

1 pick there makes the 64,000 divvy a gimme for those following this thread...

Fours


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