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The Big6 ...... can the small punter take it on? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: The Big6 ...... can the small punter take it on?  (Read 8159 times)

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Offline fours

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O.P. « 2018-Nov-24, 08:29 AM »
This is one bet type I am way in front on because small bets have returned big dividends.

This is despite the fact I have had less than 10 goes at this bet type. On one occasion I deserved it having picked the one 20/1 winner result of those 6 races and on another occasion I probably did not as my standout selection got scratched and the fav won that leg for me!

On other occasions the quirky last leg only failure dividend was received and this can be a very good return indeed.

Say you have 40 black bookers and 4 or more end up in the one race at nice odds - here is one way to make those occasions really work for you rather than to curse them!

Big fields and problem barriers and the possibility of some rough results are to be welcomed and embraced rather than to be avoided. Competitive racing seen as a delight rather than a problem.

Later today I will provide a $5 only ( 500 combinations for the minimum 1% ) approach that even the smallest punter can contemplate doing and the logic behind it. In general though my successful bets have been for $10 to $25 outlay. Variance will hurt you more often when you outlay less. Of course the big bettors will outlay far more but this does not mean you have to.

This week only combos posted before the jump. After that only after the first leg has jumped!

Fours

Outlay  >>>  $90.00
Return >>>   $0.00
Strike rate           0                              ( expected to be very low as this is to be expected for small outlays  )
« Last Edit: 2018-Dec-15, 06:01 PM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2018-Nov-24, 10:07 AM Reply #1 »
Okay,

$5 only means you are taking big shortcuts and have only 500 combo covered. The simplest way to do this is by taking two standout favourites and 5 picks in 3 legs and 4 picks in one leg.

You may or may not decide to bias how many selections allowed in a given leg due to the 2 dividends on offer with this bet type. In general I would say ignore that and let the markets, and field sizes, bias you instead.

Have made things simple and taken the 2 shortest favs as the 2 picks for that consideration but this is as far as I have allowed the market to sway me.

For the other legs have biased selections in 2 main ways - soft track form and barriers ( strike rates DO drop off at Ballarat for some distances ) but have only allowed market prices a little sway - we want roughies in a leg or two.

So today's ticket for 500 combos is :-

1/2,6,8,13/5,6,8,12,15/1,4,9,15,20/5/1,3,4,8,10/

Fours
ps A pity they took Megablast to NZ for a soft track today    :rant:

Offline fours

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« 2018-Nov-24, 06:15 PM Reply #2 »
Did not get close today but some lessons for the future are there.

1) Leave the bet to minute(s) before they jump . conditions can change and for the first leg the early clear favourite drifted and the firmer won. Thats one leg that could have been saved.

2) $5 means your strike rate will be low so be mentally prepared for that.

3) Despite the fact no winner paid > $9.00 and favourites won 2 legs the Big6 has paid $12,790.30 which makes this quite an achievable target for many punters providing they can pick the right favourites.

Hindsight suggests 'proven in the conditions' was all you needed for that.The $5 method shown here would have snared the Big6 dividend using market order alone. So the return would have been $127.90 PLUS the consolation dividend of $28.45 ( ie 4x1% of $711.40 )

Fours

PS Peter Mair please explain .....
« Last Edit: 2018-Nov-24, 08:56 PM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2018-Nov-24, 08:47 PM Reply #3 »
All,

Don't get too excited by the above as there is a big opportunity cost for sticking to the shorties in market order.

You can kiss goodbye to the much larger dividends.

Having said that the $5 method with your pick of the shorties and only 1 or 2 roughies ( from your blackbookers maybe ) sprinkled here and there instead of one of them could see you snare those occasionally too.

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-25, 07:27 AM Reply #4 »
All,

Don't get too excited by the above as there is a big opportunity cost for sticking to the shorties in market order.

You can kiss goodbye to the much larger dividends.

Having said that the $5 method with your pick of the shorties and only 1 or 2 roughies ( from your blackbookers maybe ) sprinkled here and there instead of one of them could see you snare those occasionally too.

Fours

I actually got the quaddy yesterday but didnít take the B6. Should have :sad:

Offline fours

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« 2018-Nov-25, 07:56 AM Reply #5 »
Wily,

I think the Big6 is far more achievable than most think.

Not every time but often.

Obviously large field sizes need not prevent you getting them contrary to Peter Mairs claims.

jfc would say you'd have got unders for the Big6 compared to win bet allups x the Quaddy dividend  - crushing caused by the jackpot pool being hit hard. However we did not get 4x the jackpot invested this time - much less.

All - please be aware that final pool dividends for each race are more accurate than those taken before the first leg commences - it matters.

Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-26, 08:14 PM Reply #6 »

The BIG SUX is a usually a sucker bet

The best B6 strategy is almost always about coupling a 'running double' with a quadrella..

Sometimes a 'guaranteed big pool' can be an opportunity and sometimes a couple of Winx-legs can reduce a B6 to a quadrella.

......... normally coupling a double with the proceeds on all-up a quadrella is the best deal.


Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-27, 06:24 AM Reply #7 »
The BIG SUX is a usually a sucker bet

The best B6 strategy is almost always about coupling a 'running double' with a quadrella..

Sometimes a 'guaranteed big pool' can be an opportunity and sometimes a couple of Winx-legs can reduce a B6 to a quadrella.

......... normally coupling a double with the proceeds on all-up a quadrella is the best deal.

Figures to back that up :chin:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-27, 07:32 PM Reply #8 »

Figures to back that up?

That looks like a challenge.

The proposition is that rather than having a BIG SUX bet, usually it is better to take a double on the first two legs and put the proceeds on a quadrella for the last four legs.

The qualification is to exclude B6 promotions with a 'bonus' B6 pool booster and the odd occasion when there is an odds-on favourite in one of the two first legs.

I am happy to rely on the 'wily one' to check it out and pay him $100 if he disproves the proposition as 'usually' being correct in respect of Saturday racing in Sydney and Melbourne.

.....I will leave it to the w-o's integrity if he decides to pay me if the proposition is found to be correct.

The basic proposition is actually a no-brainer and it will help us all if w-o concedes.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-27, 08:00 PM Reply #9 »
So you want me to stump up a hungie to try and prove your thought bubble.

God youí got a nerve, prove you own theories. Iím sick of constantly proving your other brain farts wrong :bulb:

Offline fours

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« 2018-Nov-27, 11:25 PM Reply #10 »
Value,

All bet types have their instances of being great value or unders  - thats up to you to determine.

The presence or absence of a Jackpot pool is a more complex question than most think.

The Big6 can have small pools and have value for only short combos but at other times no one gets the dividend but if some one had they would have got outstanding value. Takes multiple >20/1 pops to achieve that. It can be done.. but only if you include them.

Fours

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-28, 11:58 AM Reply #11 »

Wily's sweet surrender saves $100

                        So you want me to stump up a hungie to try and prove your thought bubble.


Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-28, 05:46 PM Reply #12 »
Surrender   :lol: further proof of what a lying grub you are :bulb:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-28, 06:20 PM Reply #13 »


How about a decider on the races to be run in Melbourne and Sydney on Saturday?

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-28, 06:50 PM Reply #14 »
Iíll be interested to see your tips

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-28, 07:09 PM Reply #15 »


The BIG SUX SUX

Wily has no understanding of the B6 issue on the table -- he is in some contrived imaginings of his own and, as usual, will probably tell us he was right without ever understanding the question.

It is not about tips -- it is about comparing the BIG SUX dividend with the total payout from coupling the dividend from the winning running double on races 4&5 with the dividend invested  into the winning quadrella.

The usual outcome will show that the BIG SUX sucks -- and is a TABCORP product that should be withdrawn.

RVL and RNSW should demand the B6 product is removed -- what will all these players say to miss shock-and-awe at the coming royal commission?


 

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-28, 07:57 PM Reply #16 »
Oh, I have every idea of the issue and you fail yet again to provide any proof to support your brain farts


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-29, 11:02 AM Reply #17 »


The 'proof' is not hidden -- never was hard to find and never in doubt  -- and wont be on Saturday..

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-29, 02:22 PM Reply #18 »
Well guru, post your combos and outlay tomorrow  :bulb:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Nov-29, 04:35 PM Reply #19 »




   ...........the relevant combos and outlays? .......... will the penny ever drop?

There are six one dollar bets and  3 bets  in both Sydney and Melbourne.

Two B6 bets are on the horses finishing first in the last six races.

The comparison is of total dividends received from the B6 bets with total proceeds of winning running-double bets on races 'four' and 'five' and the betting of those 'won'  proceeds  'all-up' on the winners of the quadrella on the last four races.


Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Nov-30, 06:14 AM Reply #20 »
Awaiting your numbers, combos and outlay peter

Offline Spudda028

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« 2018-Nov-30, 08:29 AM Reply #21 »

- what will all these players say to miss shock-and-awe at the coming royal commission?

How;s the Royal Commission for this coming along Peter, can't seem to find anything about it in the mainstream media....... funny that

Maybe I should try Monty's column?? Or Fiction section in the library.....



Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Dec-01, 09:04 AM Reply #22 »
Still awaiting peters selections for his big 6
He slags off everyone else for being  monday morning quarter backs but melts under the blow torch himself
Weak as piss

Offline fours

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« 2018-Dec-01, 11:43 AM Reply #23 »
Peter and all,

Before they jump and no computer mumbojumbo...

MOONEE VALLEY (VIC) - Race 4
Leg 1 - R4   1, 3, 4, 7, 10
Leg 2 - R5   1, 3, 5, 6
Leg 3 - R6   3
Leg 4 - R7   2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg 5 - R8   2, 3, 7, 8, 10
Leg 6 - R9   5

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Dec-01, 03:21 PM Reply #24 »
Well done 4s

Pity peter didnít have the same level of decency.


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