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Author Topic: The Everest 1200m - Sydney 14/10  (Read 25675 times)

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Offline jfc

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« 2017-Oct-10, 06:11 PM Reply #225 »
Firstly, what a great example of staying on topic.

Now, I still can't make sense of what The Everest is trying to achieve.

For example, what's the point of guaranteeing $175,000 to any runner bothering to turn up?

Seems to me the only reason is to artificially inflate the prize money so it hits $10 million.


Offline Wenona

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« 2017-Oct-10, 10:14 PM Reply #226 »
.
« Last Edit: 2017-Oct-12, 07:26 AM by Wenona »

Online specialweek2

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« 2017-Oct-11, 09:57 AM Reply #227 »
Why is this thread chock with miscellaneous topics?
 

Online specialweek2

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« 2017-Oct-11, 10:11 AM Reply #228 »
ALBERT   Thoroughbred Horse (JPN) [2011]. Albert (JPN) is a horse born in 2011 by Admire Don out of Folklore, trained by the N Hori stable.
   
6yo ch h 01/01/2011 Admire Don (JPN) - Folklore (JPN) (Dance In The Dark (JPN))
Trainer   N Hori
   
Feature Nominations   Melbourne Cup 2017
Upcoming Races for Albert   7 Nov 17 FLEMINGTON Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m 555
   
Comment   
 Prize$
     JPN   JPY¥277,714,000
 Wins   1800m, 2000m (2), 2400m (2), 3400m, 3600m (2)
 Career   8w (32%) - 4p (16%) - 25 starts
Any reason this is on this thread for example?

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2017-Oct-11, 08:16 PM Reply #229 »
Been on Vega & She Will Reign every start of their lives and luv the grey champ. What odds I pull the right rein  :lol:

Offline fours

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« 2017-Oct-11, 11:09 PM Reply #230 »
hmmm,

Just how good is Deploy?

Not sure we know yet...

Fours

Offline jfc

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« 2017-Oct-12, 08:45 AM Reply #231 »
Imagine if 5 prominent owners bought 2 slots for $1,200,000.

Then selected their best 2 mounts at nomination time.

They be ahead if they only come at least 2nd for $1,425,000 + $175,00+

Or break even for 3rd + 4th for 800,000 + $400,000.

Which (ignoring slings) seems to be a good value bet.

But if it is that good,

Then the other 10 slots look like duds!

So who in their right mind would buy those dud slots!

Not Tabcorp obviously, as it fails the qualifying condition.



Offline Gintara

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« 2017-Oct-12, 12:22 PM Reply #232 »
hmmm,

Just how good is Deploy?

Not sure we know yet...

Fours

Two track records say he's pretty good.

I'd underestimated him before these last two and for the life of me I couldn't understand why he wasn't in discussions for a slot  :shrug: Lo and behold the $21 gets smashed off and he's announced in the race.

Of course I didn't get any of the top odds  :shy:  :shutup:

Offline nemisis

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« 2017-Oct-12, 06:01 PM Reply #233 »
 

A good sprint race yes,  but for me I'll be straight over to Caulfield to watch the Guineas.

Standby for some inflated betting figures though.
The latest TAB email is offering up to $105.00 back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd........the most ever.

Extraordinary advertising figures might not be factored in.
Full front page wrap in today's herald must have cost a fortune.

No doubt V'Landy's will put his spin on it all......but hard to believe much which comes from his mouth.
 

Offline pegasyber

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« 2017-Oct-13, 07:39 AM Reply #234 »
 * Perhaps the computer shows how hard it will be:
Quote
VF140817 RW81410F * SPD ORD TABNO [    6    9   13    3    5   16    1    7   15    8    2   10   12   11    4   ] T5 HI HIT
VF140817 RW81410F * SPD RATNG ORD [  1000  1000  1000  990  990  990  980  980  980  950  940  920  920  900  840  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 RW81410F * AT TRK n DIST [ RW12 RW12 RW12 RW11 RW12 RW11 RW11 RW11 RW12 CF12 MP12 MV10 RW14 MV10 FL12  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 RW81410F * RQOD SPD RORD [  12.7   12.7   12.7   13.2   13   13.2   14.9   14.7   13.7   23.8  31.5  58.5  52.4  103.5  686.3  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *
VF140817 RW81410F * AVAL ODDS FIXD[                                                                                                    ] MANUALLY KEY IN FIXED PRICES SPEED RATING ORDER
VF140817 RW81410F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     9     13      3      5     15     16      6      1      7     12      2      8     11     10      4     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  9 ENGLISH W% 2  5yo <. Dtl= 14 ] 13 IN HER TIME   5yo <. Dtl= 14 ] 3 REDZEL W% 47  5yo < --- . Dtl= 28 ] 15 TAKEDOWN W%   5yo <. Dtl= 14 ] ]*SPL*
VF140817 RW81410F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  998   998   990   988   984   978   976   974   968   960  954   942   939   912   827   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 RW81410F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  12.2   12.2   14   14.6   15.5   17.1   17.6   18   19.5   22.8   25.9   33   35.7   74.9   520.7   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

* "Scientific Racegoing" ( Cohen & Stephens )  shows any horse within 3.0 of the top rated horse has the ability to be in contention.  On SPEED Ratings, this covers from 100.0 down to 97.0. On Weight Modified Speed Ratings, this covers from 99.8 down to 96.8. 
« Last Edit: 2017-Oct-13, 08:14 AM by pegasyber »

Offline kicker

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« 2017-Oct-13, 08:21 AM Reply #235 »
Great race and I reckon you'd be doing well to find a better sprint lineup in the last 20 years or more. Bloody hard to find the winner & one where you can make a case for almost every runner but I reckon English is over the odds and I'll have a bit on her.

Offline fours

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« 2017-Oct-13, 10:09 AM Reply #236 »
Hmmmm,

Out of all the horses in waller's stable..... he ends up deploying another trainers horse.....

Fours

Offline Dave

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« 2017-Oct-13, 11:44 AM Reply #237 »
PP you asked me a long while ago re the Melbourne Cup "What am I looking forward to?" I have only just read the question.........
The short answer is I agree 100% with your statement that the Cup has lost all significance to the Australian Punter and the Australian Public......
I have no anticipation for racing and am not looking forward to any particular race(or particular horse) in Australia anymore......

I still have a passion for the horse as the most noble species ever to take a breath, I still have a passion for the punt............but vested interests have ruined racing by turning it into their own personal cash cow.....but that is another story......

This year the Everest has a fairly even field, not a horse in the race I can't make some case for, I will most certainly be having a bet in it....in fact I will be backing up to 5 in the race.............I feel Chautaqua is on his pedestal purely because this is a fairly weak era, that is not to say he isn't very good and will take some beating, there are a lot of "very good" sprinters around........I feel the Everest will be ruined if ever a Black Caviar turns up.....who will pay $1.8mill for a ticket when the very best you can hope for is second?.........it will be a walkover!!

That is unless someone snaps up all the spots and locks "Black Caviar" out...........it could literally be a field of first starters or maidens.....the only qualification seems to be owning a spot.............This year it is (almost) the best 12 horse available.....but it doesn't have to be the best horses........Tulip running and In Her Time locked out is really all the proof you need of that (and Tulip is not hopeless)

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2017-Oct-13, 05:00 PM Reply #238 »

Extraordinary advertising figures might not be factored in.
Full front page wrap in today's herald must have cost a fortune.

No doubt V'Landy's will put his spin on it all......but hard to believe much which comes from his mouth.

How do you expect them to promote the race, by doing nothing.

Good on them, 2 from pages is great

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2017-Oct-13, 05:03 PM Reply #239 »
Great race and I reckon you'd be doing well to find a better sprint lineup in the last 20 years or more. .


 :thumbsup:

Offline pegasyber

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« 2017-Oct-14, 08:43 AM Reply #240 »
Quote
VF140817 RW81410F * RACE NAME ID* [ RW81410F  2017. THE EVEREST,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 10-13-2017. AT 07:09:59 RESULT  [   3  2  8  1    ~   12   9   ]

VF140817 RW81410F * SPD ORD TABNO [    6    9    3    5    1    7    8    2   10   12   11    4   ] T5 HI HIT
VF140817 RW81410F * SPD RATNG ORD [  1000  1000  990  990  980  980  950  940  920  920  900  840  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 RW81410F * AT TRK n DIST [ RW12 RW12 RW11 RW12 RW11 RW11 CF12 MP12 MV10 RW14 MV10 FL12  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 RW81410F * RQOD SPD RORD [  12.7   12.7   13.2   13   14.9   14.7   23.8  31.5  58.5  52.4  103.5  686.3  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *

VF140817 RW81410F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     9      3      5      6      1      7     12      2      8     11     10      4     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  9 ENGLISH W% 2  5yo <. Dtl= 14 ] 3 REDZEL W% 47  5yo < --- . Dtl= 28 ] 1 CHAUTAUQUA W  7yo < --- . Dtl= 14 ] ]*SPL*
VF140817 RW81410F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  998   990   988   976   974   968   960   954   942   939   912   827   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 RW81410F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  12.2   14   14.6   17.6   18   19.5   22.8   25.9   33   35.7   74.9   520.7   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF140817 RW81410F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   10    9    11    12    1    8    2    4    3    7    5    6   ].  10 SHE WI 15d  200m  1k  3y]  [ 11 HOUTZE 15d  0m -5k  ---  3y]  [ 4 REDKIR 28d  0m  1.5k  7y] [ 8 BRAVE  21d  0m  1.5k  ---  5y.

VF140817 RW81410F   TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=   2  ]. SECND FV=   1   ]. THIRD FV=  10   ]. FOURTH FV=  3  ].

VF140817 RW81410F * KEY SPEED NOS [   3  +!. +I/C. +TJ!. =*NK*.  5  +I/C. +TJ!. 6  +!. +I/C. +TJ!. 9   +GW!. +TJ!. .]>1.  1  +!. +I/C. +TJ!. 2  +!.  +TJ!. 4   +TJ!.] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 10 +TJ!.  +GW!.  3y <. < 11 +GW!.  +!.  3y< ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 10  9  << 10 <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 10 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 3 ] * ]CKCNT. *

VF140817 RW81410F * VALU% SELECT [   7 FELL SWOOP 6y  223% $62.9 Ds= 14 ].  12 TULIP W% 2 3y  65% $37.6 Ds= 28 ].   ]. IN % ORDER[  * VALUNOS [  7  12  ]* ]*. @08:27:56 10-14-2017
   :what: :what: :what: :shrug:  maybe a small first four [   6  9  3  10   ]  even the computer is lost?
« Last Edit: 2017-Oct-15, 06:47 AM by pegasyber »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2017-Oct-14, 08:48 AM Reply #241 »
Certainly seems the tab has hit gold with this great race

Already 150k in the win and  place pool. More than the total of the whole Melb meeting

Offline jfc

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« 2017-Oct-14, 09:22 AM Reply #242 »
She Will Reign has drifted away from near favouritism, but at $7.0/$2.4 I estimated its Expectation as $1,422,000.

Pretty healthy return for $600,000.

Trouble is the 30 battlers who own her have had to reach some arrangement from a Chinese billionaire, so I doubt they will see anywhere that expected figure.

They should have been smart enough to figure out they would have been massively better off buying their own slot direct, rather than getting into bed with a middleman.

Offline fours

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« 2017-Oct-14, 09:25 AM Reply #243 »
Hmmm,

Hard luck stories will probably happen along with interference.

tend to favour the on pacers accordingly.

Cant go past Waller ignoring his entire stable for another trainers horse. This is a rare form pointer if not an insult to himself!

Fours

Offline Gintara

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« 2017-Oct-14, 11:43 AM Reply #244 »
She Will Reign has drifted away from near favouritism, but at $7.0/$2.4 I estimated its Expectation as $1,422,000.

Pretty healthy return for $600,000.

Trouble is the 30 battlers who own her have had to reach some arrangement from a Chinese billionaire, so I doubt they will see anywhere that expected figure.

They should have been smart enough to figure out they would have been massively better off buying their own slot direct, rather than getting into bed with a middleman.

It's been one of the things I've been uncomfortable about the concept all along.

Truely is a pissing contest for those with the most money to stand around and back slap each other whilst the the little bloke is cap in hand hoping to be given the nod.

If we'd put on a $1mill (or just for the top up between slot fees & the $10 mill) race over 1200m to all comers would we have a different field?

Offline firezuki

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« 2017-Oct-14, 04:43 PM Reply #245 »
Didn't take Chautauqua to the outside?  Would have gone very very close had he. 


 

Offline sobig

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« 2017-Oct-14, 05:06 PM Reply #246 »
Disagree there FZ.

He ran the last 600 in 32.98 while saving every bit of ground.

Had he come to the outside he would have covered too much ground to be a factor in my opinion.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2017-Oct-14, 05:21 PM Reply #247 »
Turfdeli

Did you stick with Mighty Boss.
After having him in my black book for 3 runs I Sadly over rated the Sydney form and left him alone today :tears: :tears: :tears:
Hope you stuck :x:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2017-Oct-14, 05:22 PM Reply #248 »
Oops wrong thread

Offline firezuki

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« 2017-Oct-14, 08:47 PM Reply #249 »


Disagree there FZ.

He ran the last 600 in 32.98 while saving every bit of ground.

Had he come to the outside he would have covered too much ground to be a factor in my opinion.

He was badly blocked saving all that ground.  He's won his races wide. History I suggest is with me.


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