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Author Topic: The odds must be Crazy  (Read 3484 times)

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Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-May-04, 05:09 PM Reply #100 »
AR8 rapidora 31 and 7 fixed - throw it in with yours wily

Fours

Rapidora also in my black book with Tofane

Online fours

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« 2019-May-04, 05:34 PM Reply #101 »
Last bet today is Our Mate Al Ascot r8 51 and 7.50 fixed - grows a leg in the wet

Fours
ps will tighten things up further next week and call it quits then

Online fours

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« 2019-May-04, 10:37 PM Reply #102 »
All,

Apologies as I missed one today in the hectic rush - While Patches failed the same system ( >50% the place but paying more than $15.00 the place > is there a better 1 rule system out there? ) had The Stylist in Flemington R3 and ran 3rd fixed place price was $26.00.

After the race so not counting it here but have mentioned this several times before. - Note once again it's a race for 3 year olds - definite sweet spot for this.

Fours

Online fours

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« 2019-May-05, 01:42 PM Reply #103 »
All,

Decided to call it quits here as there is enough already to show what I wanted.

Bet too many of these roughies and you will show a loss on win place or exotics as done here BUT bet them smarter and really good profits can be made.

An example of betting them smarter is really culling down to good expectations rather than fond hopes eg I KNEW Volkoff would be 1) storming home late 2nd up and could handle the heavy track and 2) his way of racing would be advantaged by the fact plenty of leader types were engaged . The only small negative is the distance could have been 50m longer so 4th was made more likely rather than a win. I knew the grade was no problem too.

Other examples are where you have 2 different methods coming up with a different roughy in the one race - here you can really capitalise. We've seen the $202.00 quinella delivered by Wily's video form pick dead heating with my over all form assessment pick Orcein. You might think that's hard to beat but you will beat it with persistence.

For example I had 2 roughies Olympic Academy and Silent Warrior for Morphetville race 4 and picked Silent Warrior here but just  look at the exotics > boxing these 2 with the 2 favs costs $24 for a full unit Trifecta paid $3,671.00. Amazing as that is for the same $24 you could box those 4 for the First Four for a full unit and it paid $18,313.50.

Now just take a look at that market the 2 favs were $2.90 and $3.30 fixed with a big gap to the 3rd fav of $7.00 so boxing the 2 roughies with them was really telegraphed as a good idea by the market.

I have 2 real roughies both end up in the tri around 1 in 15 attempts, a bit better in the first fours AND the pay offs are huge as you can see BUT it's real work to achieve that and not a fluke. The two favs standing out like that will occur much less often for you so more combos will be needed most times.

Wily and I have shut up Peter Mair for a while about how impossible and unfair it all is for a time at least .... and that is an achievement in itself.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2019-May-05, 01:47 PM by fours »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-05, 08:38 PM Reply #104 »
Moved to applicable thread.
« Last Edit: 2019-May-16, 03:48 AM by pegasyber »

Online fours

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« 2019-May-06, 01:01 AM Reply #105 »
pegasyber,

In Volkoff's case I was simply better informed than the market about Volkoff having followed the horse from way back - no inside info at all but merely what the horse can do and when it does it and when it does not. Plenty of horses like this if you are patient and stay in the game for years.... Wiley's video reviews are much the same thing but in his way.

BUT yes most >30/1 roughies have something that needs to be forgiven or over looked ... other wise they would not be that price in the first place.

And thus the lower strike rate; especially when you forgive them a bad run or two and they only get worse....

Dare I mention 'variance" as I use it in just one of the many ways it can be used - always keep in mind the accidents of the race PLUS the fact that the horses are not machines ( nor are their jockeys ) means that whatever performance you expect to happen can vary up or down in lengths for your roughy horses AND the opposition. So expect joyous outcomes AND bitter disappointments.

Fours

Online fours

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« 2019-May-06, 06:58 AM Reply #106 »
pegasybe,

Too busy hey - what's your secret at your age?

Fours

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-06, 07:28 AM Reply #107 »
  Moved to applicable thread.
« Last Edit: 2019-May-16, 03:50 AM by pegasyber »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-May-06, 08:29 AM Reply #108 »
Good to hear from you, Peg :beer:

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2019-May-07, 07:40 AM Reply #109 »
Not quite on this topic, but crazy times right now . First  upheld protest in Kentucky Derby in 149 years and Gary Ablett jnr first rubbed out ( subject to appeal ) in 328 games.What would are the odds of that double ?

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-13, 06:26 AM Reply #110 »
  Moved to applicable thread.
« Last Edit: 2019-May-16, 03:50 AM by pegasyber »

Online fours

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« 2019-May-13, 09:30 AM Reply #111 »
pegasyber,

That race also had 2 clear favourites in the first four and once again a mere $24 for a full unit first four returned $10,634.30 with the favs finishing 2nd and 4th again! AND AGAIN the roughest roughy of the two roughies won!

The jockeys must be reading from a script....

A more extreme example of how crazy the odds can be is O'Reilly's Crumpet at Ascot r6 on the 8th of May. I priced the horse at 12/1 but took the 151/1 and $25/1 the place early in the morning. Its started $91 fixed but ran 4th so I got nothing for my insight. However I also took it in first fours with Langley and the first four paid 42 grand. The only spot I did not have A Slipperycustomer in was 1st so again I got nothing for my trouble. The lesson here is don't try and be too cute.

The "work" is that you have to look at a lot of races to find a horse offering 150/1 that you price at 12/1 or less BUT they really do happen. Just don't let a slippery customer under your guard in the exotics.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2019-May-13, 09:34 AM by fours »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-13, 02:19 PM Reply #112 »
  Moved to applicable thread.
« Last Edit: 2019-May-16, 03:51 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Dave

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« 2019-May-14, 10:40 AM Reply #113 »
You want to talk crazy prices? How about $121 the win and $19 the place Akasaki!! Top Fluc $7 best Tote $6,80........that is how you punt to win!

Online fours

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« 2019-May-14, 11:56 AM Reply #114 »
Dave,

Yes they keep coming up and maybe the colder months have more of them.

Only find them if you look! And only benefit if you have the courage to back them.

Fours

Offline Dave

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« 2019-May-14, 05:26 PM Reply #115 »
fours I agree 100% you won't find them if you don't look for them,
I also backed Con Te Patiro when it got to $25 on Betfair, that was silly overs, it trialed just as well as Moss Trip and it was around $6.......
A couple of Weeks ago Tamarack blew from about $12 (not a bet) to $44(a must bet) and then $55 (a must bet again)................
I find it takes a lot less courage to throw $25 on those than it takes to have $500 on something at evens to win less money!! i.e. what happens if my bet gets beaten?? nothing........I don't change my MO as I am not emotionally involved and I don't actually expect them to win(I expect I will get winners, just not every winner)

If I have a $500 bet and it loses I am now $500 behind, the mindset does a 180 degree.....how do I get it back? My MO changes from enjoying Punting to desperation.....I start having "bad" bets.....I am not thinking straight......what happens if I have another $500 on and it loses.........now I am in a sweat.......you get my drift.....that is where Gambler's Anonymous gets all their clients from
I find Value really easy to find, The corporates offer fantastic deals, punters have never had it so good......On Saturday I had $500 on Osborne Bulls at $3.30....I can hear you saying that contradicts what I had just said about betting large amounts at short prices?? well the deal went like this, Neds offer a thing called "back up" where you can pick a back up horse, if the back up horse beats your selection you get your money back, I selected Nature Strip........I then laid Osborne Bulls @ $2.90.......Now I have 3 possible outcomes, Osbourne Bulls wins and I win $200 ($500 x .40 the difference between what I backed OB's at and the price I laid it at) it gets beaten by Nature Strip and I lose my $500 bet but I get my money back.....but I laid it so I don't have to give the Betfair punter his money back....so I win $500.....or neither of those happen and I break even, which is what happened, I broke even........but my point is my $500 was never at risk and I had a chance of winning $200 or $500.............and the odds were very short that I would win, if you backed both Osborne Bulls and Nature Strip you would have laid long odds on as they were both very short in the market......but you would have lost your money when neither won, I took a better price but could not lose.....don't bet bigger.....bet smarter!
The question should not be How do Punters win??
The question should be how do punters lose?

Online fours

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« 2019-May-15, 12:14 AM Reply #116 »
Dave,

No problem taking advantage of offers but they can be removed or removed just for you....  so I prefer not to rely on them.

Scale of betting is an important part of the  psychology of punting I will let each punter face that in their own way.

I have presented ways a 50c ticket can be done however. No need to outlay the full $24.00 if you don't have it but then you get 2.08333% rather than 100% when maybe a mere $12 would have got you the same return as $24.00 more or less.

50c tickets will help many cope with the psychology of handling  longer losing runs that will happen with this approach. Success can allow bigger bets if one stays at 1% of the updated bank.

Fours

Offline Dave

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« 2019-May-15, 01:53 AM Reply #117 »
I have been restricted on a lot of bookie bonuses but it has taken a long time for them to catch on, Bookies don’t really ban winners, they ban “likely” winners I.e. they profile the way you bet.......they think most long term winners have a commonality in the way they punt and I believe that is what they look for, if you change that MO even if you do win it takes them a while to catch on.......and if you bet the way they perceive that winners bet, you can get restricted even if you are a loser..........Even with Ned’s I am restricted to a max bet of $50 on their price boost, which is OK but I don’t use the “backup” very often (only when there is an opportunity to bet with little or no risk)they allow a decent bet using that............punting isn’t just about backing winners, it is about finding opportunities............most punters bet at the pointy end of the market and contrary to popular opinion I believe that is where the unders are.........cos they know those punters bet on what they think will win regardless of the price........they get over confident........making favourites often overbet and underpriced..........the trick is to know your strengths, know yourself, keep records and be honest.....with yourself, do what works for you!

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-May-15, 11:40 AM Reply #118 »
" .the trick is to know your strengths, know yourself, keep records and be honest.....with yourself, do what works for you!"

Thats the trick Dave. Its all about those disciplines but geez I find them hard

The punt is such an opinionated things and recklessness is sometimes rewarded

Offline Dave

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« 2019-May-15, 10:33 PM Reply #119 »
wily a longtime ago I thought it was about opinion too........after all it is what we are taught by all the experts............but my opinion changed....cos in my opinion I enjoyed winning a whole lot more than losing.....I backed more winners back then than I do now.........but I didn't win.....now I back less winners....but I win
The secret is in backing the overs.....don't even try to back winners.....if you get the price right, winning will take care of itself

as an aside to this conversation I was interviewed on the Racing Rant last Monday on my punting exploits.....I kinda explain where I am coming from in that, it is on YouTube Racing Rant - stories of the Punt with Dave Potter

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-May-18, 05:14 AM Reply #120 »


Hopes dashed ................... where are the intrepids ......... wily, fours and dave

Offline Dave

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« 2019-May-18, 09:00 PM Reply #121 »
Pete would you please answer just one simple question??????? WTF are you talking about?

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-May-18, 09:47 PM Reply #122 »
Given I just found the last winner at Sha Tin @$81, Mair can go and.............himself  :bop: :bop: :bop:

Online fours

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« 2019-May-18, 11:50 PM Reply #123 »
Wiley,

The courage to take on an unbeaten horse at short odds, ridden by a champion* jockey and trained by a champion trainer is a good start in finding such a nicely priced winner.

There was chink to find in the favs career (outside wdr ) and not much to fault from a career perspctive in your winner IF you forgive very recent form - has to be something to forgive or you don't get that price.

Fours
* Moriera's stats no longer what they once were

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-May-19, 02:59 AM Reply #124 »

Reading test

......... you boys can all read ..... and the nonsense that is inflated and overcrowded Australian racing is displayed in all the papers today.............. the results panels in the papers............ get back to me when you have had time to understand them.


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