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The odds must be Crazy - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: The odds must be Crazy  (Read 8317 times)

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Offline fours

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« 2019-May-19, 07:10 AM Reply #125 »
Peter,

If you were not so bone lazy some simple reading would have shown you that Wily's 80/1 winner was in fact rated number 1 on one site on actual performances before the race.

Fours

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-May-19, 07:48 AM Reply #126 »
Reading test

......... you boys can all read ..... and the nonsense that is inflated and overcrowded Australian racing is displayed in all the papers today.............. the results panels in the papers............ get back to me when you have had time to understand them.


Reading test.....you clearly canít read  :lol:

Oh and I just reviewed the 5 races you squealed about

R1 @ $6
R2 @ $6
R4 @ $3
R5 @ $1.60 the favourite that you said couldnít win
R6 @ $4.60

Now an honesty test


Can you point me to which of these races results were due to over crowded fields?
Roughies getting in the way of favourites?
Barriers draws dictating results?
Insider knowledge that smoked a runner in?
« Last Edit: 2019-May-19, 07:50 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline Dave

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« 2019-May-19, 10:45 AM Reply #127 »
Pete I will accept that you can read......so can kids in school, it's your comprehension of what you are reading that is sadly lacking......in short you are a freakin' idiot!

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-May-19, 05:05 PM Reply #128 »


Predictable patterns but no easy explanations

In general, F4 and Quadrella dividends of more than $1000 are indicative of problems with the running of a race.

In most cases the 'problem' has to do with too many in the field that are unable to win but can bring others undone.

Just why things go awry is complex -- early pace too fast or too slow -- filler horses hogging the lead before compounding -- bad barrier draws et al.

It was clear on Wednesday that race outcomes on Saturday would be rough across the nation and they were.


Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-25, 08:53 PM Reply #129 »
   Thanks Fours there was a near perfect example of what one can find with minimal outlays, and that was in Race 8 on the 25/05/2019, at Eagle Farm with the new racing surface; using the knowledge that fours has been detailing in this thread.  Combining  favourites and two real roughies, at 40/1 and 150/1.

 Comparative dividend Display for this race event is available from racenet.com.au and  is a great example of what Fours has been trying to  guide  new starters  about  Favourites, Roving Bankers, First Fours and Prices that seem to be crazy, and what is available to the aspiring First Four punter willing to learn.
« Last Edit: 2019-Jun-06, 04:07 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-May-26, 05:39 PM Reply #130 »


..........  the F4 for this race in NSW was $100,000+ and in the next $300,000+--- clearly nothing wrong!

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-May-26, 06:04 PM Reply #131 »

..........  the F4 for this race in NSW was $100,000+ and in the next $300,000+--- clearly nothing wrong!

Oh Peter, thereís plenty wrong. Thankfully the punting world is full of lazy, stupid people with no idea about horse and form..
Clearly you are one of those. The data is in and verified   :lol:

Offline fours

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« 2019-May-26, 06:16 PM Reply #132 »
A lot of work for most..

While Pegasyber uses a program ( made by some one that knew what to look for ) there are plenty of non computer ways to have found Princess Posh BUT most of them involve work.

What was Princess Posh's career place strike  - was it great or that of a donkey? Did you even look?

Were you put off by the form ending 00? Did you look for reasons why this might be misleading? Again did you look?

150/1 offered for Princess Posh suggest the horse cant handle the distance or the class... but is this very very wrong on both counts? Again did you look?

Transposed to the entire field this means a lot of work and time ( with out computer doing it for you )  but if you want the rewards this exactly what you have to do

If you don't than join the whiners like Peter Mair that donate heavily to those that do ... do the work.

Fours
PS you can be a cheapskate and use rating providers to do some of the work for you but this time most of those failed too - and thus the payout.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-27, 01:06 PM Reply #133 »
   *  AND WHAT A PAYOUT*

Quote
VF140817 EF82505F * RACE NAME ID* [ EF82505F  2019. TAB KINGSFORD-SMITH CUP,,,,,,, 1300 mtrs]. COMPRUN 05-25-2019. AT 10:56:10 RESULT  [   2  13  6  15   ~  18   8     ]


  i GIVE UP fOURS THEY DON'T SEEM TO BELIEVE anything other than P.M's rants, only a few readers, no questions no comments even.   
« Last Edit: 2019-Jun-08, 01:18 PM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-29, 02:15 PM Reply #134 »
 Racing Form data is apparently no longer available from TABONLINE.com.au.  This will bring to an end my activity in computer race analysis.
« Last Edit: 2019-May-29, 02:19 PM by pegasyber »

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-May-29, 03:09 PM Reply #135 »
Commiserations.

Offline fours

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« 2019-May-29, 03:26 PM Reply #136 »
pegasyber,

Keep looking for alternative suppliers and or talk with them about possibilites of acces.

Or adapt to other supplied data.

Or be a cheapskate and use a few smart shortcuts manually,

Fours

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-May-29, 05:05 PM Reply #137 »
 Thanks Fours for your suggestions;    Tab has now confirmed the end of this particular tabonline.com.au service covering Form.
   Sorry nothing to do with json api etc.
« Last Edit: 2019-Jun-08, 01:20 PM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-Jun-01, 02:15 PM Reply #138 »
  Post removed due to the use of the wrong data.  I had not noticed a change in the order of Race form data Lines, which caused me to pick up the wrong Price data. 
« Last Edit: 2019-Jun-06, 04:03 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Spudda028

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« 2019-Jun-01, 02:23 PM Reply #139 »
Pegs Thks for posting prior to race
I assume this is For the Qld Oaks?

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-Jun-01, 02:36 PM Reply #140 »
  Thanks  Spudda28 you are right, Race 8 Queensland Oaks at Doomben on 01/06/2019 sorry about that.  Post above removed due to a bad error.
« Last Edit: 2019-Jun-03, 05:48 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Spudda028

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« 2019-Jun-01, 02:56 PM Reply #141 »
No problems mate , thanks again I enjoy reading your posts

Offline pegasyber

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« 2019-Jun-01, 03:48 PM Reply #142 »
   Post removed due to error in data handling..

 
« Last Edit: 2019-Jun-02, 02:37 PM by pegasyber »

Offline fours

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« 2019-Jun-01, 05:37 PM Reply #143 »
pegasyber

Princess Posh >$24.00 the place and today lady Cuvee $26.60 the place and Dawson diva $36.90 the place from the one simpler system* I've mentioned BEFORE the race many times.

Fours


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2019-Jun-01, 09:38 PM Reply #144 »


Crazy or not, the 'gods' have relegated this thread to the appropriate level in the tide of life.

Offline Wenona

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« 2019-Jun-07, 11:35 PM Reply #145 »
The one that's got me bamboozled tomorrow is Pecans in the second at Eagle Farm at $41/$8 NSWTAB.  :chin:

Looks a $7 chance on a dry track to me. :shrug:




Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Jun-08, 09:15 AM Reply #146 »
Looks no chance to me.  :biggrin:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2019-Jun-08, 09:33 AM Reply #147 »
Prompt Response looks the goods

Offline ratsack

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« 2019-Jun-10, 07:51 PM Reply #148 »
any word from 4's or is this another failed strategy

Offline fours

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« 2019-Jun-11, 01:33 AM Reply #149 »
ratsac,

Enough provided in the thread by me already for some prepared to do the necessary disciplined work to achieve profits - or can't you comprehend that?

Upside as well as  downside pitfalls and traps all provided.

Pegasyber can so read more closely.

If you cant make money when shown an approach to turn $24 ( maybe even only $6 on Unitab ) into > $18,000.00 then there is n hope for you.

Ongoing things since I last posted - horses with >50% place strike rate paying more than $15.00 the place keep occurring but I don't see the need for me to point out each one.

My posts are not for lazy spoon feeders but for those that are prepared to do some work of their own.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2019-Jun-11, 01:38 AM by fours »


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