Author Topic: Tom's Tipping Service (Read 5161 times)

Arsenal · O.P. « 2019-Sep-05, 07:08 PM »

Very clever you tube video featuring Tom the tipster ......very generously offers your money back if ya don't win.

Grandad Bill doesn't look too well would be a good age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJuS_dJ957M&feature=youtu.be

Giddy Up

JWesleyHarding · « 2019-Sep-05, 07:16 PM **Reply #1** »

Funny

gunbower · « 2019-Sep-05, 07:23 PM **Reply #2** »

Arsenal , Pretty slick ad . Old Bill will be 98 next birthday so pretty reasonable to expect his best days are well behind him. Couldn't he tell some stories ! Nice to see the young fella still must look up to his granddad

jfc · « 2019-Sep-05, 07:58 PM **Reply #3** »

WSW was born 22 January 1922.

I'm tempted to subscribe to the free Bronze.

But something seems to good to be true.

58% POT - FREE!

Hmmmmm.

https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/tipping/bronze-package/

Jeunes · « 2019-Sep-05, 08:48 PM **Reply #4** »

What happened to him?

Has he got a no compete clause or something like that?

Wenona · « 2019-Sep-07, 11:07 AM **Reply #5** »

Historical results are based on best price offered by an Australian Wagering Operator after they are sent out.

Wenona · « 2019-Sep-07, 04:25 PM **Reply #6** »

Freebie today was AR6 #5 Magic Sunset - jumped odds on and ran unplaced.

jfc · « 2019-Sep-07, 06:39 PM **Reply #7** »

Surprised that just the two us seem interested.

Tom will claim $2.50 about that one, even though it was never better than $2.10 after 1100.

~99% of early Betfair money was on it!

He claims $4.20 about his Friday pick which finished 2nd today at $2.70.

Peter Mair · « 2019-Sep-07, 07:09 PM **Reply #8** »

Mark Read was the benchmark

In the normal course 'tipping services' do not live up to the hopes of either the promoters or the purchasing punters.

One outstanding exception was Mark Read -- he was incredible in the way he both just gave his tips free of charge and did so in the most openly public way -- on-course, on TV and in the Sportsman.

Mark Read was astonishing in the success rate of his selections -- the legendary 'legal eagles' under the guidance of Don Scott were, sensibly, a private operation even though the 'secrets' were well written up in a sequence of modestly priced books.

...... in the US.... the standout was Andrew Beyer ....... also very open in offering advice .

Time will tell for Tom.

Wenona · « 2019-Sep-07, 07:46 PM **Reply #9** »

The most interesting thing to me (and I'm sure you also noticed) was that Magic Sunset was trading just above $2.00 close to the jump and BSP'd at $1.77.

sobig · « 2019-Sep-07, 08:02 PM **Reply #10** »

Quote from: jfc on 2019-Sep-07, 06:39 PM

Surprised that just the two us seem interested.

Tom will claim $2.50 about that one, even though it was never better than $2.10 after 1100.

~99% of early Betfair money was on it!

He claims $4.20 about his Friday pick which finished 2nd today at $2.70.

This has been a major complaint from a few people who have been keeping a note ofTtom's tips and maintain that seldom do they see the odds he quotes as getting on at.

jfc · « 2019-Sep-07, 08:06 PM **Reply #11** »

I actually failed to notice that low BSP, but that's extremely interesting.

Those of us who bothered signing up can check Tom's other results to see how reliable such a free money opportunity is.

Wenona · « 2019-Sep-14, 10:23 AM **Reply #12** »

From Tom

Have you downloaded my app yet?

You can now get my top-rated selection for every horse race in Australia, every single day with Tip On Demand. You can learn more about it here.

Just download the Apple or Android app, select the race and reveal the tip. There are tips for races at 8 Australian tracks today.

After 1,581 selections for Australian racing, we've had a strike rate of 31% and profit on turnover of 2.29% at the Betfair Starting Price (BSP). That's after the 4% commission you pay on winning bets.

As he's talking 1 tip per race, standard commission ranges from 6% - 10% and I don't think most punters would have that high a discount rate, I think Tom's fudging the 'you pay' commission rate a wee bit to keep the return positive.

Wenona · « 2019-Sep-14, 11:23 AM **Reply #13** »

jfc · « 2019-Sep-14, 12:46 PM **Reply #14** »

No, in fact is Tom is correct when he says It was $?.?0 with ????? when sent out today.

I checked with Tabcorp Fixed Fluctuations.

From memory members get the free tip 1 hour earlier.

That's more than enough time for it to firm.

Even 1 minute is.

Wenona · « 2019-Sep-14, 01:14 PM **Reply #15** »

Have you checked the one last week?

Happy to delete my post if that was $2.50 at 10am.

Note the boost bet from yesterday Wayupinthesky just won - $9 when set out apparently with only minor deductions on the race.

jfc · « 2019-Sep-14, 01:23 PM **Reply #16** »

On Tabcorp fixed last Saturday

#5 Magic Sunset

$2.50 Open
$2.40 Next call
$1.85 Tom

Wenona · « 2019-Sep-14, 01:30 PM **Reply #17** »

OK enough evidence to retract.

Peter Mair · « 2019-Sep-14, 06:45 PM **Reply #18** »

What does the history of costly tipping services say -- are any ever a success over a 3 month period?

wily ole dog · « 2019-Sep-14, 08:53 PM **Reply #19** »

I don’t know , why don’t you tell us

jfc · « 2019-Oct-12, 12:49 PM **Reply #20** »

Reviewed by Gruen.

I thought the ABC was David Walsh's exclusive promotional unit, so nice to see someone else get some free publicity.

https://iview.abc.net.au/show/gruen?&WT.srch=1&WT.mc_id=Corp_TV%7cAdWords:gruen_e_g_380764247646_&gclid=Cj0KCQjw0IDtBRC6ARIsAIA5gWtYjBhuKBHiC8vp7zAZAy0RKafiPaEy4kPWN7TNIt9VqWNoGYy48LwaAnbzEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

Wenona · « 2019-Oct-12, 03:02 PM **Reply #21** »

Not funny? At least he doesn't need to cover it with a fake laugh track (despite being recorded in front of a live audience) to try and trick people into thinking it is.

jfc · « 2019-Oct-13, 06:47 AM **Reply #22** »

Tom certainly doesn't economise on follow up emails once you sign up for the "free" tip.

He sends us the results of winners, including those of his Gold (20 tips) package.

Allowing a Level Stakes analysis.

For 6 weeks-

120 Bets
34 Wins

86% Tom's POT
47% BSP POT

Including 3 double-digit wins.

Tom BSP
$21 $15.50
$26 $16.55
$35 $24.86

What's the catch?

Wenona · « 2019-Oct-13, 10:34 AM **Reply #23** »

I have noticed he reports profits as profit on turnover eg 75% profit on the day and reports losses as a percentage decrease in his bank eg despite 100% loss on turnover he may report loss was 3% of bank.

Obviously doesn't affect the underlying EV of the tips but he certainly makes sure he spins all the pitches.

That is a very good return on the gold package. Would be interesting to know the total BSP percentage of the the 120 selections.

jfc · « 2019-Oct-20, 05:34 AM **Reply #24** »

From past experience it is only a matter of time before some deranged imbecile misinterprets my analysis here as some form of endorsement, acts rashly, does themselves huge financial damage and hysterically lashes out against me.

Anyway, a standout day for Tom's Gold with 9 winners from 20.

Overall, for Level Staking:

140 Bets
43 Wins

96% Tom's POT
59% BSP POT