Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: Arsenal on 2019-Sep-05, 07:08 PM

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Sep-05, 07:08 PM
Very clever you tube video featuring Tom the tipster ......very generously offers your money back if ya don't win.

Grandad Bill doesn't look too well would be a good age.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJuS_dJ957M&feature=youtu.be


Giddy Up :beer:
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Sep-05, 07:16 PM
Funny  :lol:
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: gunbower on 2019-Sep-05, 07:23 PM
Arsenal , Pretty slick ad . Old Bill will be 98 next birthday so pretty reasonable to expect his best days are well behind him. Couldn't he tell some stories ! Nice to see the young fella still must look up to his granddad
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Sep-05, 07:58 PM
WSW was born 22 January 1922.

I'm tempted to subscribe to the free Bronze.

But something seems to good to be true.

58% POT - FREE!

Hmmmmm.


https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/tipping/bronze-package/

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Jeunes on 2019-Sep-05, 08:48 PM
What happened to him?

Has he got a no compete clause or something like that?
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Sep-07, 11:07 AM
Historical results are based on best price offered by an Australian Wagering Operator after they are sent out.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Sep-07, 04:25 PM
Freebie today was AR6 #5 Magic Sunset - jumped odds on and ran unplaced.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Sep-07, 06:39 PM
Surprised that just the two us seem interested.

Tom will claim $2.50 about that one, even though it was never better than $2.10 after 1100.

~99% of early Betfair money was on it!

He claims $4.20 about his Friday pick which finished 2nd today at $2.70.

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-07, 07:09 PM


Mark Read was the benchmark


In the normal course 'tipping services' do not live up to the hopes of either the promoters or the purchasing punters.

One outstanding exception was Mark Read -- he was incredible in the way he both just gave his tips free of charge and did so in the most openly public way -- on-course, on TV and in the Sportsman.

Mark Read was astonishing in the success rate of his selections  --  the legendary 'legal eagles' under the guidance of Don Scott were, sensibly, a private operation even though the 'secrets' were well written up in a sequence of modestly priced books.

...... in the US.... the standout was Andrew Beyer  ....... also very open in offering advice .

Time will tell for Tom.

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Sep-07, 07:46 PM
The most interesting thing to me (and I'm sure you also noticed) was that Magic Sunset was trading just above $2.00 close to the jump and BSP'd at $1.77.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: sobig on 2019-Sep-07, 08:02 PM
Surprised that just the two us seem interested.

Tom will claim $2.50 about that one, even though it was never better than $2.10 after 1100.

~99% of early Betfair money was on it!

He claims $4.20 about his Friday pick which finished 2nd today at $2.70.

This has been a major complaint from a few people who have been keeping a note ofTtom's tips and maintain that seldom do they see the odds he quotes as getting on at.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Sep-07, 08:06 PM
I actually failed to notice that low BSP, but that's extremely interesting.

Those of us who bothered signing up can check Tom's other results to see how reliable such a free money opportunity is.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Sep-14, 10:23 AM
From Tom

Have you downloaded my app yet?

You can now get my top-rated selection for every horse race in Australia, every single day with Tip On Demand. You can learn more about it here.

Just download the Apple or Android app, select the race and reveal the tip. There are tips for races at 8 Australian tracks today.

After 1,581 selections for Australian racing, we've had a strike rate of 31% and profit on turnover of 2.29% at the Betfair Starting Price (BSP). That's after the 4% commission you pay on winning bets.



As he's talking 1 tip per race, standard commission ranges from 6% - 10% and I don't think most punters would have that high a discount rate, I think Tom's fudging the 'you pay' commission rate a wee bit to keep the return positive.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Sep-14, 11:23 AM
.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Sep-14, 12:46 PM
No, in fact is Tom is correct when he says It was $?.?0 with ????? when sent out today.

I checked with Tabcorp Fixed Fluctuations.

From memory members get the free tip 1 hour earlier.

That's more than enough time for it to firm.

Even 1 minute is.

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Sep-14, 01:14 PM
Have you checked the one last week?

Happy to delete my post if that was $2.50 at 10am.

Note the boost bet from yesterday Wayupinthesky just won - $9 when set out apparently with only minor deductions on the race.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Sep-14, 01:23 PM
On Tabcorp fixed last Saturday

#5 Magic Sunset

$2.50 Open
$2.40 Next call
$1.85 Tom

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Sep-14, 01:30 PM
OK enough evidence to retract.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Peter Mair on 2019-Sep-14, 06:45 PM


What does the history of costly tipping services say -- are any ever a success over a 3 month period?
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Sep-14, 08:53 PM
I donít know , why donít you tell us :whistle:
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Oct-12, 12:49 PM
Reviewed by Gruen.

I thought the ABC was David Walsh's exclusive promotional unit, so nice to see someone else get some free publicity.

https://iview.abc.net.au/show/gruen?&WT.srch=1&WT.mc_id=Corp_TV%7cAdWords:gruen_e_g_380764247646_&gclid=Cj0KCQjw0IDtBRC6ARIsAIA5gWtYjBhuKBHiC8vp7zAZAy0RKafiPaEy4kPWN7TNIt9VqWNoGYy48LwaAnbzEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Oct-12, 03:02 PM
Not funny? At least he doesn't need to cover it with a fake laugh track (despite being recorded in front of a live audience) to try and trick people into thinking it is.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Oct-13, 06:47 AM
Tom certainly doesn't economise on follow up emails once you sign up for the "free" tip.

He sends us the results of winners, including those of his Gold (20 tips) package.

Allowing a Level Stakes analysis.

For 6 weeks-

120 Bets
 34 Wins

 86% Tom's POT
 47% BSP POT

Including 3 double-digit wins.

Tom BSP
$21 $15.50
$26 $16.55
$35 $24.86

What's the catch?
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Wenona on 2019-Oct-13, 10:34 AM
I have noticed he reports profits as profit on turnover eg 75% profit on the day and reports losses as a percentage decrease in his bank eg despite 100% loss on turnover  he may report loss was 3% of bank.

Obviously doesn't affect the underlying EV of the tips but he certainly makes sure he spins all the pitches.

That is a very good return on the gold package. Would be interesting to know the total BSP percentage of the the 120 selections.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Oct-20, 05:34 AM
From past experience it is only a matter of time before some deranged imbecile misinterprets my analysis here as some form of endorsement, acts rashly, does themselves huge financial damage and hysterically lashes out against me.

Anyway, a standout day for Tom's Gold with 9 winners from 20.

Overall, for Level Staking:

140 Bets
  43 Wins

96% Tom's POT
59% BSP POT
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Oct-26, 04:02 PM
How come Tom is the only one with Turnover data?

Caulfield Cup day turnover suffered a significant hit last Saturday, dropping 24.6 per cent from $127.7 million in 2018 to $96.3 million, continuing a decline in turnover across the spring.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/credit-bans-taxes-to-blame-for-poor-turnover-waterhouse-20191024-p533yi.html
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2019-Oct-27, 12:35 PM
How come Tom is the only one with Turnover data?

Caulfield Cup day turnover suffered a significant hit last Saturday, dropping 24.6 per cent from $127.7 million in 2018 to $96.3 million, continuing a decline in turnover across the spring.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/credit-bans-taxes-to-blame-for-poor-turnover-waterhouse-20191024-p533yi.html

Interesting comments from Waterhouse:

Instead, Waterhouse says additional taxes on bookmakers are having the greatest effect, as was the credit ban, which was introduced 18 months ago.

"We're getting into a fair way since the credit ban has been put in place, so you're seeing the impact of high roller turnover being significantly reduced," he said.

"On a Saturday, if you're having a good day or a bad day you might turn over a lot of money, but if you've got to deposit the day before, it's hard to deposit half a million dollars to bet up through the day."

Waterhouse agreed with Racing Victoria that increased taxes meant bookmakers were offering worse odds, something he believed could see punters turn to other sports.

"It was only four or five years ago that top fluc (fluctuation) would average in Sydney 105 per cent, now the top fluc is 116 per cent. It's a big difference in percentage," he said.

"I know the highest grossed sport with waging operators is basketball, NBA, and they have all that vision that's free and they have no tax on that product.

"A punter can turn over their money a lot more times because they've only got a couple of per cent against them but in racing, you've got 120 per cent against you most of the time now.

The golden days of bookie competition are well and truly over.

The takeout for racing wagering is way too high - unless of course you are getting rebates.

But the state governments like to view gambling in the same way as smoking i.e. vermin filth so we will tax them what we like. I reckon it will get worse in the long run.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-01, 01:54 PM
Apparently Tabcorp can't handle alternate facts.

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Nov-01, 02:25 PM
Tom was turfed when he didn't deliver what he was invited to do....serves him right.

Giddy Up :beer:
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: wily ole dog on 2019-Nov-01, 02:36 PM
Very funny listening
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Nov-01, 03:20 PM
Tom was turfed when he didn't deliver what he was invited to do....serves him right.


He also had a right to ask why (and comment on) the decision to pull the previous arrangement.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: sobig on 2019-Nov-01, 03:37 PM
He has been told it was an error made by a producer.

Regardless of whether that was correct or not he was not going to get anywhere and had been asked not to comment further.
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: JWesleyHarding on 2019-Nov-01, 04:08 PM
No, he obviously wasn't satisfied with whatever excuse was made "junior "employee blah blah blah.

The question he obviously wants answered, as we should, is.
 
 "What strings did the TAB pull to have that previous arrangement changed?"
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: Arsenal on 2019-Nov-01, 06:15 PM
No, he obviously wasn't satisfied with whatever excuse was made "junior "employee blah blah blah.

The question he obviously wants answered, as we should, is.
 
 "What strings did the TAB pull to have that previous arrangement changed?"
Who cares  :beer:
Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-03, 09:20 AM
Plenty of emotive twitterbator ingrates after yesterday's dud free tip - Rosehill 1 #4 Faretti.

But his free tips have 4 from 9.

With proportional betting:

Tom +32.97%
BSP 21.49%

Title: Tom's Tipping Service
Post by: jfc on 2019-Nov-05, 04:26 AM
Not clowning nor spruiking, for a change.

Interesting tips, plus industry overview.