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Offline Peter Mair

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O.P. « 2018-Sep-09, 01:04 PM »

Waiting for the weights

The sensible expectation is that it would be a bit silly to win a race before the handicap weights are released.

There must be some 'form' horses running better after the weights are released than they did prior.

Sensible or not it is an issue the industry should address.

Perhaps it would be also sensible to have in place a rule that allows a horse to be handicapped 'as if' it won a prior race for which it started favourite but did not win.

There were some issues with race outcomes yesterday that may have been different if the 'weights' for Group Handicaps had already been released.

Would a 9yro gelding rated well below the best in the race have won a Group 2 wfa event if the big-race weights had been released? Would the first half of the race been run a bit quicker? Did the stewards say anything?


Offline Dave

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« 2018-Sep-09, 01:37 PM Reply #1 »
Fair Dinkum Pete, you are always good for a laugh, where do you come up with this crap? Penalise a horse for being fav....really? what if you are second fav?? what about Trapeze Artist who opened fav but was displaced by D'Argento....do you penalise both horses??.....there is something you should try before putting the accelerator to the floor on your silly thoughts.....try putting your brain in gear first
and Magic Consul won in a Photo, the second and 3rd horses were trying to win as there was a Guaranteed start in the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup up for grabs.........

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:02 PM Reply #2 »
Just when youíre thinking Mairs previous thread was moronic , he tops himself  :no1:

Offline Authorized

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:14 PM Reply #3 »
And yet he is basically correct.


Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:18 PM Reply #4 »
How can he b3 correct by thinking that you can penalise beaten favourites retrospectively

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:20 PM Reply #5 »
wily Try as I might, I keep getting sucked into commenting on Pete's inane ideas.........he convinces no one that he is right....and we will never convince him he is wrong..........but hard to ignore, I gotta give him some brownie points for that

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:23 PM Reply #6 »
What is he basically correct about? this is the craziest idea Pete has ever had.....penalise a horse because it was a false fav? wtf?

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:25 PM Reply #7 »
wily Try as I might, I keep getting sucked into commenting on Pete's inane ideas.........he convinces no one that he is right....and we will never convince him he is wrong..........but hard to ignore, I gotta give him some brownie points for that

Itís like watching a train wreck. You can help but look at his stupidity   :lol:

Offline Authorized

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:29 PM Reply #8 »
How can he b3 correct by thinking that you can penalise beaten favourites retrospectively

Do you think maybe he was being cynical ?

Apart from that cynical suggestion what he is saying is correct.

How many horses are running to their full potential before weights are released ?



Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:32 PM Reply #9 »
Not sure if cynical is the correct word.

Besides, how would you know what he thinks . He never discusses his thought farts. Just squirts them out
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-09, 06:00 PM by wily ole dog »

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:44 PM Reply #10 »
of course you know horses are being aimed at their Targets later in their Prep....but Pete is suggesting they aren't trying....TOTALLY wrong...........it has been my argument against calling early races Group Ones.....sure a race like the Memsie can have a similar field as the Cox Plate......but they are ALL 5 lengths off their top so it should not carry the same status.....doesn't mean they ain't trying to win.....Auth you know what agreeing with a Moron makes you, don't you?? a Morons apprentice!!

Offline Authorized

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« 2018-Sep-09, 05:50 PM Reply #11 »
After posting his initial thoughts for the forum to discuss why would he discuss his thoughts any further when you are as rude as a bruised pineapple. Your responses do not deserve his attention.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-09, 06:02 PM Reply #12 »
If my responses have become rude itís as a result of him refusing to engage in discussions re his threads.
That has been perfectly clear

Offline Authorized

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« 2018-Sep-09, 06:04 PM Reply #13 »
Your responses have been rude from the get go.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-10, 08:01 AM Reply #14 »
 
Your responses have been rude from the get go.


Absolute rubbish. There have been plenty of others who have respectfully challenged Mairs posts and got no response. A quick use of the search engine also shows your contention to be incorrect.

There are countless examples of him refusing to answer respectful questions put to him. Numerous attempts to engage in discussion are ignored

He has used this forum to push his own barrow and been allowed to do so

Question for you. Do you believe Mair is honest and respectful in his use of this forum?
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-10, 08:16 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline Authorized

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« 2018-Sep-10, 08:53 AM Reply #15 »
Yes I do.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-10, 12:56 PM Reply #16 »
Well, he's pulled the wool over your eyes. I thought you were smarter than that :o

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Sep-10, 12:59 PM Reply #17 »

Would a 9yro gelding rated well below the best in the race have won a Group 2 wfa event if the big-race weights had been released? Would the first half of the race been run a bit quicker? Did the stewards say anything?

.......and those still pondering this may also reflect on the win, against its form,  of Humidor the previous week.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-10, 01:05 PM Reply #18 »
Peter, Here's your big chance to impress your backer, authorized

What of the last 5 runs of magic consol did you believe didn't stand him a big chance in this race :whistle:

Offline Dave

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« 2018-Sep-10, 01:35 PM Reply #19 »
Pete the second fav Hartnell was an 8 year old.....so wtf are you talking about?? Magic Consul is racing in career best form(before Saturday) the fave Night watch was coming out of winning a similar grade race to what Magic Consul had won at his previous start...and Magic Consul was 20/1............easy to make a case for him, not like he had no form.......only a shock to the less intelligent.......like you and your backer.......

Offline ianb

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« 2018-Sep-10, 03:24 PM Reply #20 »
Regarding the run of D'Argento, I think Waller was certainly playing the weight game. D'Argento was deliberately put in a race which is way short of his best distance second up and he ran accordingly. He probably ran even better than the stable hoped  but I think the wet track suited him.

He was very astutely placed indeed and Waller was rewarded with the weight of 53.5 kg in the Epsom which certainly makes D'Argento a great chance.


Offline Dave

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« 2018-Sep-10, 06:43 PM Reply #21 »
Ian of course they are not at their best before the target race......but I think Pete is implying that horses are not trying, donít you?.....Sure DíArgento wasnít placed to win but he as trying as hard as he could to win.........you canít seriously think he should be penalised as Pete suggests?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Sep-10, 09:27 PM Reply #22 »

There is a history to this

Any review of the results of 'pre-weights' black type races in Melbourne over the past decade would illustrate the basic point.

............. black-type races, pre weights, are likely to deliver rough results.

The basic point has two elements.

Horses expected to do well later on will not win at black-type before the weights are declared. They would be silly to risk a higher weight.

Horses that are mainly past-it are likely to have been readied for their first-up from a spell to take advantage of those reluctant.

This is basic common sense -- these outcomes are predictable.

The answer is to change the rules. De list races run before the relevant weights are declared and reduce the prize-money to standard Saturday levels.

Alternatively assume that those accepting for black-type events are there to win and capable of doing so -- and accordingly declare the weights as-if they had won.

Who thinks Humidor or Magic Consul will win another big race this year?

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Sep-10, 10:09 PM Reply #23 »

 
Who thinks Humidor or Magic Consul will win another big race this year?
Not sure if this is a serious question Peter but with a rating of 117, that would have Humidor in the top 3 or 4 horses in the country.

Almost certainly Humidor will win another big race this spring.

He is actually a very consistent horse but struggles a little on right handed tracks and probably doesn't run 2 miles.

As the 2nd highest rated horse in The Memsie he should never have got to $34.00 especially on the slightly rain affected track.

I would suggest you should follow him.

Offline Antitab#

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« 2018-Sep-11, 06:01 AM Reply #24 »
Pete

If you are unsure how good a horse Humidor is, go and find a replay of last years Cox Plate that was run in track record time and watch it on multiple occasions.

If after that you still think he is no good, ring the TAB and every corporate in the country and permanently self exclude yourself from gambling as it is in your best interests not to bet.


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