Waiting for the weights - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK   harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Waiting for the weights - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Waiting for the weights  (Read 2967 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-11, 07:47 AM Reply #25 »
Peter, Here's your big chance to impress your backer, authorized

What of the last 5 runs of magic consol did you believe didn't stand him a big chance in this race :whistle:


Well, there you go authorized, he refuses to answer a straight forward question.

I’ll try another one for him

Peter you posed the following. Can you provide any evidence of rough results?


Any review of the results of 'pre-weights' black type races in Melbourne over the past decade would illustrate the basic point.

............. black-type races, pre weights, are likely to deliver rough results



Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-11, 08:07 AM Reply #26 »
Good morning Peter, to help you with your research I found this article
https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/racing/historical-analysis-of-the-memsie-stakes-story-375160
Let’s look at Humidors Memsie

PROFILING THE RACE

o   The Memsie is a race where good WFA horses win.

o   It has been a top race for mares with Atlantic Jewel, King’s Rose, Miss Finland, Makybe Diva, Magical Miss, Sunline (twice), & Dane Ripper winning since the 1998.

o   Track conditions certainly play a part but it hasn’t been disadvantageous to get back and swoop late over recent years. In fact 10 of last 12 came late up the middle of Caulfield.

o   Recent Memsies have been run at fair pace but rarely are they run with breakneck speed.

o   Softer barriers have helped the cause.

o   Favourites have had a very good run taking 10 of last 16.

o   Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (6 times)

o   Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $5

o   Breakdown of winners - 5 geldings, 2 entires & 3 mares

o   Races that the winner ran in prior - Aurie’s Star (2), Liston Stks (1), Spell (7)

o   Last 10 Years - No of Caulfield Cup winners who ran in Memsie – 1

o   Last 10 Years - No of Cox Plate winners who ran in Memsie – 4

o   Last 10 Years - No of Melbourne Cup winners who ran in Memsie - 4


« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-11, 08:09 AM by wily ole dog »

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-11, 08:14 AM Reply #27 »
The above data puts to bed peters false claim that “Any review of the results of 'pre-weights' black type races in Melbourne over the past decade would illustrate the basic point.

............. black-type races, pre weights, are likely to deliver rough results”


10 of 16 favourites have saluted and the average price of the last 10 winners has been $5

Put simply Peter, your contention is wrong. Rough results don’t occur as you claim. The evidence is clear

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-11, 08:45 AM Reply #28 »
Peter
Here’s a list of Feehan stakes winners. I do suggest you rethink your claims of rough results. It’s clear that there are very few if any

2017 – Bonneval[3]
2016 – Awesome Rock[4]
2015 – The Cleaner[5]
2014 – The Cleaner[6]
2013 – Fiorente[7]
2012 – Happy Trails[8]
2011 – Rekindled Interest[9]
2010 – Whobegotyou[10]
2009 – Whobegotyou[11]
2008 – Guillotine[12]
2007 – El Segundo[13]
2006 – Lad of the Manor[14]
2005 – Lad of the Manor[15]
2004 – Delzao[16]
2003 – Natural Blitz[17]
2002 – Fields of Omagh[18]
2001 – Northerly[19]
2000 – Sunline[20]




Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Sep-11, 03:26 PM Reply #29 »
I just had an epiphany and realised that we are all wrong and Pete and Authorized are 100% correct....a lot more horses get beaten in these races than win them....doesn't that prove Pete is correct?? obviously only one goer every time!! penalise them all I say!!

The evidence is there in Black and white, go back through the history of the races and you will find there is nearly always only one winner!
No wonder Pete can't pick a winner, it ain't because he is stupid and lazy at all

Offline nemisis

  • Group3
  • User 2461
  • Posts: 819
« 2018-Sep-11, 04:42 PM Reply #30 »
The title of the thread is "waiting for the weights".

I don't think there would be one person here who would doubt that Kings Will Dream has been doing just that and waiting for "weights day".

In all his starts in his first preparation he raced on the pace and yet his first two starts this spring he is suddenly a back marker.

The cup's fav looks like he is going so well that it will probably be a relief for the Weir camp that they can finally let the horse go and not go to these lengths to get him beaten.

Extraordinary thing about Kings Will Dream is that his SP prices in his 3 UK starts were $34, $6 and $11....his amazing ability was not so apparent obviously.

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Sep-11, 05:42 PM Reply #31 »
nemisis you're kiddin' aren't you? he wasn't in the first 3 on the turn in the Mornington Cup over 2400, before that he beat Riyadh, before that Notio and a couple of provincial wins....
He didn't lead in any of them, and apart from the Mornington Cup none of the others had double digit runners i,e. small fields of weak horses,

He resumes in a 1400m Group 2 then goes straight to a Group One.....apart from Winx he was up against some of Australia's best gallopers (Humidor/Kementari/Happy Clapper etc) but he was still at 1400m a distance way short of his best..........and you think cos he wasn't racing on the pace that means he didn't want to win??
He was beaten 0.2 in one and and 0.7 lengths in the other.......he came from outside barriers from probably the worse start in Australia to draw wide at both times (11 & 14)
He had no choice but to go back......he was never going to cross that field, his only other course of action was to be caught 3 and 4 wide on the pace....end of prep and still could not win.....
No way he didn't get the best position in the race that his ability and the circumstances allowed for, silly to think anything else

Offline nemisis

  • Group3
  • User 2461
  • Posts: 819
« 2018-Sep-11, 06:10 PM Reply #32 »
No I'm not kidding Dave.

Are you telling me connections were trying to win The Memsie with their horse?

At least they know they do have a future WFA horse.

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-11, 06:59 PM Reply #33 »
nemisis you're kiddin' aren't you? he wasn't in the first 3 on the turn in the Mornington Cup over 2400, before that he beat Riyadh, before that Notio and a couple of provincial wins....
He didn't lead in any of them, and apart from the Mornington Cup none of the others had double digit runners i,e. small fields of weak horses,

He resumes in a 1400m Group 2 then goes straight to a Group One.....apart from Winx he was up against some of Australia's best gallopers (Humidor/Kementari/Happy Clapper etc) but he was still at 1400m a distance way short of his best..........and you think cos he wasn't racing on the pace that means he didn't want to win??
He was beaten 0.2 in one and and 0.7 lengths in the other.......he came from outside barriers from probably the worse start in Australia to draw wide at both times (11 & 14)
He had no choice but to go back......he was never going to cross that field, his only other course of action was to be caught 3 and 4 wide on the pace....end of prep and still could not win.....
No way he didn't get the best position in the race that his ability and the circumstances allowed for, silly to think anything else

Well said :thumbsup:

God, some people think horses are computer generated machines.
That list of winners proves Mairs and Authors contentions are wrong

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-12, 08:56 AM Reply #34 »
It’s noted that Peter still refuses to answer questions around his false claims in earlier posts :bulb:

Offline Dave

  • Group 2
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 1007
« 2018-Sep-12, 09:42 AM Reply #35 »
Nemesis he wasn’t specifically set for those 2 races.........none of them were.........When So You Think won he wasn’t specifically set for them either.........that is why they should not have Group One Status, but that’s another story.......but considering the Cups are his main goal he was trying his best to win the PB Lawrence and The Memsie, what more do you expect? Didn’t you know that going in? In The Dato Magic Consul was probably the only horse in the race that was actually aimed at that race as a main target..........but you can’t think Homesman etc weren’t trying to win it?......Genuine spring horses that are trained by competent trainers improve as they close in on their main objective, that’s the way it has always been and the way it should be.......as a punter you should know that, doesn’t mean they don’t try to win anything else.....and when a horse is beaten in a photo he will be penalised in the weights anyway as his rating will go up, hence a little more weight

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-12, 10:57 AM Reply #36 »
Daves spot on.Besides that the weights are so compressed now days it hardly matters

It's also relevant to note that a donkey called Humidor, who we're told will never win a good race again, was considered good enough to be allotted top weight in the melbourne Cup

Who would have thunk it  :lol:

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31144
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:16 AM Reply #37 »
Well said :thumbsup:

God, some people think horses are computer generated machines.
That list of winners proves Mairs and Authors contentions are wrong

When  were weights released for Fiorente's year ?

Not too long ago the release of weights was moved till after the Irish St Leger. For some reason this year they decided to go before the St Leger.

I also believe off the top of my head that the weights of a few seasons, Perhaps last year, were released after the Makybe Diva.

There is absolutely no doubt trainers are trying their hardest not to win races that might affect their steeds weights for the Cups.


Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31144
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:17 AM Reply #38 »
Daves spot on.Besides that the weights are so compressed now days it hardly matters

It's also relevant to note that a donkey called Humidor, who we're told will never win a good race again, was considered good enough to be allotted top weight in the melbourne Cup

Who would have thunk it   :lol:

And a horse that only ever won  1 group 3 races was weighted just 1 kg beneath him.

Despite the depth of import nominated for this years race they lack genuine class and are still likely to dominate the 2 Cups.


Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:26 AM Reply #39 »
When  were weights released for Fiorente's year ?

Not too long ago the release of weights was moved till after the Irish St Leger. For some reason this year they decided to go before the St Leger.

I also believe off the top of my head that the weights of a few seasons, Perhaps last year, were released after the Makybe Diva.

There is absolutely no doubt trainers are trying their hardest not to win races that might affect their steeds weights for the Cups.

So you believe in Peter Mairs view that rough results are occurring due to this?

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31144
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:30 AM Reply #40 »
I agree with his assertion that horses and their trainers are not trying their hardest to win these races.

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31144
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:31 AM Reply #41 »
Now answer my question is a civilised tone.

When were weights released for the Fiorente year ?


Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:31 AM Reply #42 »
And a horse that only ever won  1 group 3 races was weighted just 1 kg beneath him.

Despite the depth of import nominated for this years race they lack genuine class and are still likely to dominate the 2 Cups.

Peter Mair was nothing short of scathing in his comments on Humidor & Magic Consol yet the handicapper thinks he deserved to be top weight in the MC which is the polar opposite to what Peter Mair was saying.

Do I need to remind you that Humidor and the best horse ever to a head

Do you agree with Mairs low opinion of Humidors ability?

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:33 AM Reply #43 »
Now answer my question is a civilised tone.

When were weights released for the Fiorente year ?

I am using a civilised tone and you didn't answer my question. Here it is again for you

So you believe in Peter Mairs view that rough results are occurring due to this?

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31144
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:37 AM Reply #44 »
Yeh, Yeh I do.

Now when were weights released for Fiorente's cup ?


Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:41 AM Reply #45 »
Yeh, Yeh I do.


So where is your proof of that
The list of winners for the race shows that there is very little in the way of rough results.

Just because you want it to be so it doesn't mean it is.
Simply, the list of winners shows you are wrong

"Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $5"
10 of 16 favourites have saluted and many 2nd favourites as well
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-12, 11:43 AM by wily ole dog »

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31144
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:47 AM Reply #46 »
The proof is in the pudding.

If Peter Mair comes on here and says the Earth is a globe you would argue it is flat.

Now answer my question.

Online wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25659
« 2018-Sep-12, 11:53 AM Reply #47 »
The proof is that that rough results are not occurring in the races discussed.
"Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $5"
10 of 16 favourites have saluted and many 2nd favourites as well


Can you please address that before I move on to your question, which Im happy to do. 

Offline JWesleyHarding

  • Group 1
  • User 231
  • Posts: 18259
« 2018-Sep-12, 12:39 PM Reply #48 »
The proof is in the pudding.


No it's not.

It's in the eating. :dry:

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 31144
« 2018-Sep-12, 12:51 PM Reply #49 »
The proof is that that rough results are not occurring in the races discussed.
"Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $5"
10 of 16 favourites have saluted and many 2nd favourites as well


Can you please address that before I move on to your question, which Im happy to do.

I do not think you are capable of answering my question.

If you are able to answer it you should be able to do so in the same post as your idiotic question.

The winner and price of said winner does not prove anything about a race and its running as a whole.

Now get on with answering my question.





BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap