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Author Topic: Waiting for the weights  (Read 2922 times)

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Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Sep-14, 09:33 AM Reply #75 »
I see old Max Dynamite is in tonight.
Beaten 14.7 & 14.3 lengths at his last 2 starts and the form guide tells us he "Must be considered"
Really  :lol:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-14, 01:00 PM Reply #76 »
Apparently Humidor failed to feature yet again yesterday.

Could only manage a pizzling 3rd in a G1 race.
  :biggrin:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-30, 06:53 AM Reply #77 »

Apparently Humidor failed to feature yet again yesterday as Mair predicted

Could only manage a pizzling 3rd in our greatest G1 race behind our much acclaimed greatest horse ever, Winx
 
Cant expect Mair to admit he was wrong  :biggrin:

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Oct-30, 07:22 AM Reply #78 »
Apparently Humidor failed to feature yet again yesterday as Mair predicted

Could only manage a pizzling 3rd in our greatest G1 race behind our much acclaimed greatest horse ever, Winx
 
Cant expect Mair to admit he was wrong   :biggrin:
Unfortunately for Humidor he injured the "shock absorber" part of his leg, the suspensory ligament, and won't be seen for a while.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-30, 12:34 PM Reply #79 »

The two points made at the outset were correct enough

One was the plain common sense of not having a horse ready to win in a WFA event before the Cup weights are released.

...a 'tick' for that one.

The more important point was about other trainers taking advantage of that expectation and getting one ready to win first up -- knowing that it has little chance of performing well as the spring unfolds.

........ Humidor was 'got ready' to win at a long price -- but that compromised its future -- it was then a 'lay'.

....... a 'tick' for that one two

I wrote this to be helpful to TAB punters likely to appreciate the lesson -- it took me decades of watching the stunt being pulled to get the message.

[....and do not forget that when Invictus Prince ran second to WX it was not an omen of its future]


Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Oct-30, 01:48 PM Reply #80 »
The two points made at the outset were correct enough

One was the plain common sense of not having a horse ready to win in a WFA event before the Cup weights are released.

...a 'tick' for that one.

The more important point was about other trainers taking advantage of that expectation and getting one ready to win first up -- knowing that it has little chance of performing well as the spring unfolds.

........ Humidor was 'got ready' to win at a long price -- but that compromised its future -- it was then a 'lay'.

....... a 'tick' for that one two

I wrote this to be helpful to TAB punters likely to appreciate the lesson -- it took me decades of watching the stunt being pulled to get the message.

[....and do not forget that when Invictus Prince ran second to WX it was not an omen of its future]
Peter, the first point may be fair enough but you are completely wrong about Humidor.
His handicap rating of 116  had him 3rd best in the Cox Plate and that is where he finished.....behind the two top raters and in front of the 4th rater.

I don't lay horses but with his SP prices after he won of $6, $7.5, $6 and $21 I would suggest what is the point in laying him?
How much do you have to put on? ......to win how much?

If you followed Humidor every start this campaign you would be in front......win only, eachway or just place betting.

The only time he saw any sort of rain affected track he won.

Also for the umpteenth time he did not win 1st up.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-30, 05:16 PM Reply #81 »

Humidor,

.....first, apologies for the 'first-up' mistake, again.

That mistake is important, because, on reflection his 2nd up stats show 6 starts for 4 wins and one second  -- albeit over a more suitable 1600m

Humidor has been, and remains, a very good horse -- but if his peak days are behind him it was sensible to go for broke early in his preparation.

The trainer is also quite good and very smart.

The margin was fine but he 'flew last 100m' -- a race which the SP odds, and the C&D stats, said he was not likely to perform at his best (bar perhaps -- if he was 2nd up as he was).

He may have been primed to win the Lawrence stakes a couple of weeks earlier when he 'worked home well' at the same odds over the same unsuitable C&D.

In 2017 Humidor ran in both races finishing 5 lengths 5th and 8th off the winner.

I think the 'lesson' stands -- some good horses are got ready to win early at a good price when it is reasonably suspected some others may not be as forward in condition.





Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-30, 05:55 PM Reply #82 »
Humidor,

.....first, apologies for the 'first-up' mistake, again.

That mistake is important, because, on reflection his 2nd up stats show 6 starts for 4 wins and one second  -- albeit over a more suitable 1600m

Humidor has been, and remains, a very good horse -- but if his peak days are behind him it was sensible to go for broke early in his preparation.

The trainer is also quite good and very smart.

The margin was fine but he 'flew last 100m' -- a race which the SP odds, and the C&D stats, said he was not likely to perform at his best (bar perhaps -- if he was 2nd up as he was).

He may have been primed to win the Lawrence stakes a couple of weeks earlier when he 'worked home well' at the same odds over the same unsuitable C&D.

In 2017 Humidor ran in both races finishing 5 lengths 5th and 8th off the winner.

I think the 'lesson' stands -- some good horses are got ready to win early at a good price when it is reasonably suspected some others may not be as forward in condition.

His best days were not behind him when you decided to use him as a reason to CREATE your nonsense argument. :bulb:

His best days are still not behind him :bulb:

You got it wrong yet again :tin:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-30, 06:44 PM Reply #83 »

The weight is with me, the wait was worth it

.......... thank you for reinforcing my point...... a very good horse now past his best.


Online Gintara

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« 2018-Oct-30, 06:59 PM Reply #84 »
The weight is with me, the wait was worth it

.......... thank you for reinforcing my point...... a very good horse now past his best.
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Pete - Why is his best past him?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-30, 07:22 PM Reply #85 »

Why is his best past him?

The way I read things, I reckon the trainer implicitly said this at the start of the preparation.

I do not expect to be wrong.

As I also read it more generally, when trainers 'get one ready' to win 'unexpectedly', the message I take is that it was a final throw of the dice.

What the punters are not usually being told is 'which horses have been got-ready' -- and that is an entrenched part of the culture of racing.

........looking ahead I would be not betting on (laying) the Hayes horse that won on Saturday  -- as I have had , for example, Lucky Hussler marked since a year ago.

Moonee Valley 28-Oct-17  1600m   GOOD 3  R8 G2 CRYSTL MILE $123,000 (of $200,000) Barrier 5, Winning Time: 1:34.56, SP: $9 In-running: Settled 5th, 1200m 5th, 800m 5th, 400m 5th Sectionals: 600m 0:35.450 10L back, cruised up turn, dashed away in straight

LH  won only that one race in 12 starts over the past year -- he was ready to go on the day and won by 3 lengths.

That is 'part of the game' but as a punter it would be good to know 'how one is got ready' and 'when' it will be let go.

Please let me know.



Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-30, 07:25 PM Reply #86 »
The weight is with me, the wait was worth it

.......... thank you for reinforcing my point...... a very good horse now past his best.

I said nothing of the sort.
You arrogance even blocks out the written word.

You’re lying scum :beer:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-30, 07:54 PM Reply #87 »


Thanks again

His best days are still not behind him

Online Gintara

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« 2018-Oct-30, 09:10 PM Reply #88 »
Except the trainer said all along his main aim was to be ready to go on Cox Plate day  :what:

Looking at how he went you'd have to say he got it pretty spot on. I'd hardly consider that past it .....

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-31, 06:51 AM Reply #89 »

I'd hardly consider that past it .....

Nor do I -- rather the suggestion was 'being past his best'.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-31, 07:38 AM Reply #90 »
I'd hardly consider that past it .....

Nor do I -- rather the suggestion was 'being past his best'.
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By who?


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