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Author Topic: What's the Story?  (Read 1367 times)

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Offline JWesleyHarding

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O.P. « 2020-Apr-11, 04:12 PM »
San Marco winner of Race 6 Newcastle paid 11.10 the win 12.10 the place on Vic Tab.

Must be a story there. :chin: 

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 04:27 PM Reply #1 »
multis normally the reason - successful ones

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-11, 04:53 PM Reply #2 »
I don't mind admitting to ignorance:-

Please Expalin

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:11 PM Reply #3 »
Eh?

Allups in all their various ways on the win spot but not the place spot

Fours

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:27 PM Reply #4 »
Vic  Win  11.10  Place 12.10
Pool 29851  11654

NSW Win 25.70  Place 4.60
Pool 29133  10797

QLD  Win  29.70  Place 6.60
Pool 5766  2517

Don't think Multis explains query

« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-11, 05:40 PM by JWesleyHarding »

Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:41 PM Reply #5 »
Ehhhhh?

Only done in one pool - lots of people do that.

Does not take much money for a successful multi leg win allup to crush a later win div. In my younger more foolish days I crushed a quin div into half the other states with a successful allup - now I would split them.

Fours

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:43 PM Reply #6 »
A large parlay the only explanation

Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:51 PM Reply #7 »
Actually looks like a genuine anomaly of a result as opposed to anything more nefarious.

I'd like to think I can speak with a fair degree of knowledge/confidence in all manners of pool-rorting, div manipulation and even "O/S betting participants".

The progression (and relevant pattern) of pool sizes means nothing is really standing out here.

R5: W - 16.4k, P - 6.5k
R6: W - 29.9k, P - 11.7k
R7: W - 41.2k, P - 12.6k
R8: W - 45.1k, P - 13.0k

There is no +$5k / +$10k smoking gun jump in pool size here, the ratios between W/P are all within the realms of normal.

The Place div does stick out, but the approx's do not show any/all/a number of runners that have been crushed to enable this, nor does the pool size jump.

Either 'fat fingers' got lucky in the Win pool, or an All-Up for mine. A definite head-scratcher though, that both results were up/down the same runner.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-11, 05:54 PM Reply #8 »
Okay, let's just say that explains the win dividend.

But what about the place dividend being double the other states' dividends on the very same race the win divi is half the other states'?


This post was compiled before the post preceding it was posted.
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-11, 05:57 PM by JWesleyHarding »

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-11, 06:00 PM Reply #9 »
When I first saw it I immediately thought of "fat fingers" re the win.

But then the place divi gave me cause to pause.

Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-Apr-11, 06:05 PM Reply #10 »
When I first saw it I immediately thought of "fat fingers" re the win.

But then the place divi gave me cause to pause.

Fixed Win prices of (3) $26 and (17) $41 had similar tote Place prices - 12.10 and 12.50.

With no discernible jump in Place pool size to "push out" the (3), this is All-Up money 99%.

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Apr-11, 06:25 PM Reply #11 »
I'm no detective JWH but I'd say Jeff Penza is the common denominator here.

I'm not suggesting Jeff has a Vic account or anything like that  ;) ;)

Maybe a friend or fan who likes to take a parlay or an all-up.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-11, 06:32 PM Reply #12 »
Then what explains the extended place divi?


Offline fours

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« 2020-Apr-11, 07:51 PM Reply #13 »
Hmmm,

Jeff did have a real day out!

Has copped some criticism lately on forums..... lifted his game some.... or only on Saturdays....

Fours

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Apr-12, 08:20 AM Reply #14 »
It's around J Penza for sure.
Nothing much to see in the place pool......fairly typical small pool anomaly.

I'd say it's all ups around the Waller 1st starter What A Girl,  Loves To Rock and San Marco.

NSW TABs What a Girl, $20.90, Loves To Rock $14.30, San Marco $25.70
Vic   TABS  What A Girl,$18.80, Loves To Rock,  $8.30, San Marco $11.10.

Could something like a $50 all up produce something like this?........Where are you JFC?

1st 4 Syndicate boys came to play in the 7th at Newcastle....a couple of jackpots proved too irresistible and so they pumped the pool to $56k to make sure there was nothing left.
« Last Edit: 2020-Apr-12, 08:58 AM by nemisis »

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-12, 09:02 AM Reply #15 »

Nothing much to see in the place pool......fairly typical small pool anomaly.


Again, my point is:
Okay let's accept the reasons above for the win tote disparities BUT what are the chances of this significant place tote  anomaly occurring with the same horse when the totes are separate entities? :chin:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Apr-12, 09:39 AM Reply #16 »
JWH, you seem to have something on your mind, I suggest you say what it is :thumbsup:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-12, 09:55 AM Reply #17 »
Again, my point is:
Okay let's accept the reasons above for the win tote disparities BUT what are the chances of this significant place tote  anomaly occurring with the same horse when the totes are separate entities? :chin:

I think it is a win tote anomaly JWH, not a place tote anomaly

Fixed Place (A) Tote Place (B) B/A
Fixed Win (A) Tote Win (B) B/A
5 4.6 92.00%
17 18.8 110.59%
3.1 3 96.77%
9 10 111.11%
7 12.1 172.86%
26 11.1 42.69%
4.8 6 125.00%
16 16.9 105.63%
3.2 2.9 90.63%
10 9.6 96.00%
4 4 100.00%
13 14.3 110.00%
6 5.4 90.00%
21 23.3 110.95%
2.5 2 80.00%
6.5 6.3 96.92%
15 19.6 130.67%
61 83.7 137.21%
5 5.2 104.00%
17 22.7 133.53%
2.5 2.4 96.00%
6.5 6.3 96.92%
2.4 3.2 133.33%
6 6.7 111.67%
4.2 3.6 85.71%
14 13.9 99.29%
10 12.5 125.00%
41 63.7 155.37%
4.2 6 142.86%
14 21.9 156.43%

The horse started $26 fixed on TAB but the official NOP was $31/$26/$21 suggesting late money?

The other possibility is that someone was over-exposed at the $31 and had to lay off quickly - perhaps. In the absence of details about the bets placed, and what time they were placed, we are only guessing.

If it was the final leg of a parlay the anomaly would be exposed early and you'd expect the tote to adjust for that.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-12, 10:09 AM Reply #18 »
No Wily, nothing on my mind except puzzlement.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-12, 10:12 AM Reply #19 »
Can't see how it's not a place tote anomaly PP  :what:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-12, 01:27 PM Reply #20 »
Can't see how it's not a place tote anomaly PP  :what:

As mentioned by nemesis, typical small pool place tote anomaly.

It is the win dividend that is the big difference in percentage terms. Has paid gross unders.

In the old days this was common place. But in modern times with rebates and programmable betting, you rarely see this.

That is why I surmise it must have been "late money".

Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2020-Apr-12, 03:12 PM Reply #21 »
Reverse engineering shows there was around $270 worth in winning place tickets in VIC, as opposed to $660 in NSW.

Fat-fingers of 50/500 gives a +450 boost, totally plausible in this case.

Funnily enough, there was (roughly) the same amount $610 on the second place-getter in each state, returning 5.40 in VIC and 5.00 in NSW.



Absolutely nothing to see here.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-23, 04:39 PM Reply #22 »
Be interested to see what the #7 starts on the Tote at in the last at Townsville.

With 38 minutes to bet, the $23 fixed odds shot is $2.20 on the tote the win and $13.40 the place with $2k+ in the win pool.



I would assume someone has a big all up running?


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