Author Topic: When is a spell a spell? (Read 894 times)

montecristo · O.P. « 2022-Feb-22, 06:19 PM »

Firstly, is there an industry standard for how long a spell is? I tend to go off the TAB NSW website - as that's where I scrape all my data from - and from my understanding their definition of a spell is a break between races of greater than 60 days or 8 weeks. I could be wrong but I thought I read somewhere that VIC racing considers a spell slightly longer at 9 weeks?

Either way, what I'm trying to determine is the length of time fellow punters use when deciding that a horse might need a run or 2 to get their fitness up? I seem to recall a recent interview with Ciaron Maher where he was talking about one of his horses being off for 2 months and that generally they kept their fitness really well over that sought of period.

fours · « 2022-Feb-22, 06:40 PM **Reply #1** »

montecristo

Don't go the full monte as different trainers do different things.

For example a stayer for Waller might win first up while other trainers wont have them ready for that until starts 3 onwards.

There is everything inbetween...

In general .... generalisations will steer you into a higher strike rate but loss scenario. Profits come from exceptions to the generalisations which create errors of pricing in the market.

Fours

montecristo · « 2022-Feb-22, 07:01 PM **Reply #2** »

Quote from: fours on 2022-Feb-22, 06:40 PM

montecristo

Don't go the full monte as different trainers do different things.

For example a stayer for Waller might win first up while other trainers wont have them ready for that until starts 3 onwards.

There is everything inbetween...

In general .... generalisations will steer you into a higher strike rate but loss scenario. Profits come from exceptions to the generalisations which create errors of pricing in the market.

Fours

Thanks Fours.

I guess I should add that my approach is to bet in volume and not so much be selective. Whether this approach will work is yet to be determined, but this is why I'm looking for a more general rule around optimum length of time for setting this parameter, otherwise I'll just default to the standard of 8 weeks with maybe 2 week added margin to catch anything that might fall just outside of this.

ratsack · « 2022-Feb-22, 07:21 PM **Reply #3** »

Is Fours a

en trainer as well now .
Asking for interested formites

Gintara · « 2022-Feb-22, 07:36 PM **Reply #4** »

Quote from: fours on 2022-Feb-22, 06:40 PM

Profits come from exceptions to the generalisations which create errors of pricing in the market.

Fours

Surprised you didn't tell the bloke to play Lotto with stuff like that.

fours · « 2022-Feb-22, 08:45 PM **Reply #5** »

Happy for people to disagree with me.

Such means my profits remain secure.

Fours

Rad · « 2022-Feb-22, 08:50 PM **Reply #6** »

When is a spell a spell?

It depends - on the horse, on the trainer, maybe on other factors. Mayer and Eustace keep horses fit for months without racing, yet present them for a 2000m race fit and ready to win. Have they spelled? Freshened yes, but not spelled. The training program continues.

I don’t think it is easy to set rules in place for defining what constitutes a spell. When does a freshen become a spell?

It depends

Gintara · « 2022-Feb-23, 04:09 PM **Reply #7** »

It's nearly impossible to tell these days.

Many trainers have second facilities be it 'down the beach' or their own farm or one they are associated to.

I guess the only way to know is the owners bill, when you're fees are lower

Dave · « 2022-Mar-07, 06:53 PM **Reply #8** »

Anything less than 12 weeks was always accepted as not a real spell, however it can also depend on why the horse was spelled, the usual "spell" where a horse goes to a paddock for a genuine Holiday is 4 weeks in the paddock, it then takes around 8 weeks to get them ready to race again, young horses will generally need a months break as they will have aches and pains/Shin soreness, growing spurts etc, but they can also be up and ready to run in a slightly shorter period, as they race over short distances and they run on Adrenalin so they can work a lot of the fat off themselves, as we all know it is easier to lose weight and get fit when you are 20 than it is when you are 50
sometimes older horses can need a month in the paddock due to stresses that occur, and then take 8, 10 or maybe 12 weeks work to get ready to race, meaning they are out for 4 months or a bit longer, on the other hand a couple of weeks in a paddock would suffice if the horses had no physical problems going out and they could get the same beneficial spell.....they would/could also comeback with some residual fitness so the work they need to be ready to race would be less and the "spell" could total 8 weeks, i.e. 2 weeks in a paddock and 6 weeks work, it would still be a spell.
I am just generalizing, there is NO definitive answer....unless you accept that a spell is the same length as a piece of string

montecristo · « 2022-Mar-10, 10:12 AM **Reply #9** »

Quote from: Dave on 2022-Mar-07, 06:53 PM

Anything less than 12 weeks was always accepted as not a real spell, however it can also depend on why the horse was spelled, the usual "spell" where a horse goes to a paddock for a genuine Holiday is 4 weeks in the paddock, it then takes around 8 weeks to get them ready to race again, young horses will generally need a months break as they will have aches and pains/Shin soreness, growing spurts etc, but they can also be up and ready to run in a slightly shorter period, as they race over short distances and they run on Adrenalin so they can work a lot of the fat off themselves, as we all know it is easier to lose weight and get fit when you are 20 than it is when you are 50
sometimes older horses can need a month in the paddock due to stresses that occur, and then take 8, 10 or maybe 12 weeks work to get ready to race, meaning they are out for 4 months or a bit longer, on the other hand a couple of weeks in a paddock would suffice if the horses had no physical problems going out and they could get the same beneficial spell.....they would/could also comeback with some residual fitness so the work they need to be ready to race would be less and the "spell" could total 8 weeks, i.e. 2 weeks in a paddock and 6 weeks work, it would still be a spell.
I am just generalizing, there is NO definitive answer....unless you accept that a spell is the same length as a piece of string

Interesting. Appreciate the detailed response and certainly concurs with the general theme being there really is no definitive answer to this.

Dave · « 2022-Mar-11, 10:28 AM **Reply #10** »

To be a little bit more definitive I would say the minimum for a "spell" would be 2 months from race to race, any less and I would term it a freshen up, any more than about 4 months and I would say the horse went out with a problem that needed time to heal