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Author Topic: Zeljko Exposed  (Read 155841 times)

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Online jfc

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« 2019-Aug-22, 07:10 AM Reply #400 »

74,249 bets greater than $2 and all the profit from these is wiped out by just 25 Lay bets where their "win fair price (WFP)" is calculated to be less than or equal to $1.25; after capping the max lay to the bank of $10k.

Laying a contingency is equivalent to Backing its complement.

By my calculations, for Fair Prices <= $1.25 the Kelly Fraction will always be below 20% - or $2,000.

So why the capping?

If anyone disagrees show us your calculations and I'll show you mine.

Incidentally the more I look at the exercises the more absurd it seems.



Offline Grega9430

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« 2019-Aug-22, 12:25 PM Reply #401 »
I have these three capped at their $10k bank?


win_fair_price   win_starting_price
1.082              1.022
1.08                      1.03
1.124                  1.046


Online jfc

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« 2019-Aug-22, 04:17 PM Reply #402 »
Here's my workout for the 1st one.

1.0819 Fair Price
1.0219 SP

Laying that is equivalent to Backing the Complement.

13.2100 Fair Price Complement
46.6621 SP Complement

5.545800% Kelly Fraction
$554.58 Stake
$25,323.28 Net Winnings

So $25,323.28 is the required Lay Stake.

So you are correct about capping.

My Kelly Fraction was correct, but I was wrong in not realising that the Back Winnings (hence Lay Stake) could exceed the Bank.


Offline Grega9430

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« 2019-Aug-22, 06:16 PM Reply #403 »
Copy, this "project" still blows the net winnings (before 5% commission) from 74,249 bets on the 25 Lay bets at WFP less than 1.25, as 24 of these won.

It only needed one of these bigger lay bets (Winx) to get beat at $1.10 to correct that plus some, a lot hinging on one result.

16% their maximum overs seems light, but again not sure if dataset is real.


Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2019-Sep-06, 05:50 AM Reply #404 »
Zeljko hitting new lows with the success of his Guaranteed Jackpot greyhound betting pools


https://twitter.com/MrTimeform/status/1169679511107117056?s=20

« Last Edit: 2019-Sep-06, 05:52 AM by Tracksuitdave »

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2019-Oct-02, 09:47 AM Reply #405 »
I see in The Financial Review Zeljko is listed as the 164th richest Australian with assets of $600,000,000. Probably a bit of a guesstimate there, as unlike many others in that top 200 rich list, whose  holdings are listed in public companies,to my knowledge, Zeljko's assets are not on any public register.

Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2019-Oct-03, 02:34 AM Reply #406 »
It seems that Zeljko has gone out of his way to drop hints about his wealth and the scale of his betting. What is fact is that he has effectively hobbled his corporation Colossusbets Ltd by withdrawing less than $10M from that company's balance sheet. This has seriously disadvantaged the business which is already technically insolvent. So if he is worth thereabouts of $600M why would he do that?

In other news his corporate mouthpiece Bernard Marantelli the former Monsanto PR man, has suddenly deactivated his @BernardColossus twitter handle :wavecry: In a way you cannot really blame Bernie as his recently launched greyhound betting pools are now a contender for the worst betting product of all time :beer: 50,000 GBP guaranteed jackpots regularly having less than fifty or so tickets bet into them.



,

« Last Edit: 2019-Oct-03, 02:38 AM by Tracksuitdave »

Offline fours

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« 2019-Oct-03, 11:23 AM Reply #407 »
Limiting losses is the normal reason of a sane man.

Fours

Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2019-Oct-03, 07:37 PM Reply #408 »
I agree that's what seems to be happening at Colossusbets.

Zeljko Ranogajec and team also lost multi millons backing the ill fated WBX exchange. He now has the Colossusbets cash burner on his hands and an interest in lossmaking Matchbook. No doubt that the man is a very good punter but as a proprietor of betting companies he is a big time loser. Ranogajec also has to share his spoils with Mr Walsh and the money pit that is MONA! Interesting scenarios all round.

I wonder if the beleaguered Bernard Marantelli ends up suffering the same fate as Zeljko pawn Karl O'Farrel whose reward for failure was to be bankrupted by the the great man.

One further point of interest is that Zeljko is also involved in claiming to have invented "cashout" along with Mr Marantelli. On the face of this is an astounding claim and they have registered patents. The amusing part of it that they filed their patents half a decade after another inventor claimed the same rights!  Zeljko - industry visionary or patent troll :shy:

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/26503/cash-out-patent-claim-irish-company/
https://www.intergameonline.com/igaming/news/bet365-targets-us-market-with-colossus-bets-cash-out
« Last Edit: 2019-Oct-03, 07:46 PM by Tracksuitdave »

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2019-Oct-04, 04:14 PM Reply #409 »
I agree that's what seems to be happening at Colossusbets.

Zeljko Ranogajec and team also lost multi millons backing the ill fated WBX exchange. He now has the Colossusbets cash burner on his hands and an interest in lossmaking Matchbook. No doubt that the man is a very good punter but as a proprietor of betting companies he is a big time loser. Ranogajec also has to share his spoils with Mr Walsh and the money pit that is MONA! Interesting scenarios all round.


Unlike other mere mortals, who punt to win to survive, Zeljko has admitted he does not punt to win but bets to survive on rebates. In reality,he is most likely a no better punter than the smartest of those mere mortals, but has exploited the fools that have offered him rebates from his early days in Tasmania to the present day.

Online jfc

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« 2019-Oct-06, 12:31 PM Reply #410 »
Copy, this "project" still blows the net winnings (before 5% commission) from 74,249 bets on the 25 Lay bets at WFP less than 1.25, as 24 of these won.

It only needed one of these bigger lay bets (Winx) to get beat at $1.10 to correct that plus some, a lot hinging on one result.

16% their maximum overs seems light, but again not sure if dataset is real.
Although I haven't wasted any time analysing this, I can't get it out of my mind so maybe this post will bring some closure.

First, there is a major blunder in not realising that there is NO minimum Stake for SP, but minimum Liability.

Big, big difference. And what sort of  hotshot is anyone who could be so ignorant!

Next, the exercise is completely wrong.

While every punter should understand the Kelly Criterion, I doubt there is any situation in real life where it can be applied directly.

Moreover adding Kelly Fractions within the same contest is mathematically wrong.

Consider a fair regular tetrahedron with implied True Odds of $4.

But you are offered

A $6
B $6
C $3
D $3

The Kelly Fractions are.

A 10%
B 10%
C 0
D 0


But staking 10% on both is wrong.

Because obviously this opportunity is equivalent to being offered $3 about 1 face of a fair coin.

Where the Kelly Fraction is 25%!

But don't get me started.

Offline stiffarm

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« 2019-Oct-07, 03:40 PM Reply #411 »

Online jfc

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« 2019-Oct-08, 03:55 PM Reply #412 »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion#Multiple_outcomes

That blog contains a broken link.

The fix is above.

Why did they make it so convoluted!

Seems to me the only inputs needed are-

Want = True Odds
Have = Best Odds on Offer

Consider only favourable bets - where Have > Want

The KF for any single bet

=(Have/Want-1)/(Have-1)

For all favourable bets-

RS
=(1-COUNT(Want)/HARMEAN(Want))/(1-COUNT(Have)/HARMEAN(Have))

The combined KF for each bet is

=1/Want-RS/Have

A simple spreadsheet which actually works for my earlier example where Want=4 and Have=6.

I trust Zeljko's 300 Quants will find this useful.


Offline The Yank

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« 2019-Oct-10, 05:35 AM Reply #413 »
Unlike other mere mortals, who punt to win to survive, Zeljko has admitted he does not punt to win but bets to survive on rebates. In reality,he is most likely a no better punter than the smartest of those mere mortals, but has exploited the fools that have offered him rebates from his early days in Tasmania to the present day.

His wagering models are very strong.  Most computer teams lose money straight up and show their profit from rebates.  The pools worldwide are too efficient to make money betting large sums without the rebates.

I have no ties to the man and only spoke with him once years ago but know some of his associates well. 

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2019-Oct-24, 06:10 AM Reply #414 »
Keno 9 spot jackpot started rising quickly the other day and went off at $450,000.

And guess where the winning ticket was sold - North Ryde RSL - surprise, surprise.

Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-09, 07:58 AM Reply #415 »
Cute article about an attempted Keno Jackpot raid.

Reminding all that Bernard Marantelli, the perp in question, is/was Australian.

Until recently he was Zeljko's gofer heading up ColossusBets a licensed Corporate offering PotofGold Jackpots for plebs, and undisclosed potential special advantages for Zeljko.

Formerly a Twitterati he has recently mysteriously vanished.

Whether this Keno gambit was on behalf of Zeljko or as a rival is not known, at least to me.

https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/national/how-british-professional-gambler-took-aim-at-m-lotto-jackpot/article_478a358d-6572-5f82-ae37-26dba99333ad.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2019-Nov-09, 10:35 AM Reply #416 »
Keno 10 spot jackpot has risen to $2.6 million and the "bonus jackpot" ($2 per game) is at $5.87 million.

Not sure if they are big enough to be in play yet.

The expected payout for a 10 spot keno is $0.65 if the jackpot is $1 million. So they have to make up $0.35 through the jackpot before the value is there.

Hits Probability  Payout   Expected Payout 
0 4.5791%  $                                 -    $                            -  
1 17.9571%  $                                 -    $                            -  
2 29.5257%  $                                 -    $                            -  
3 26.7402%  $                                 -    $                            -  
4 14.7319%  $                             1.00  $                    0.1473
5 5.1428%  $                             2.00  $                    0.1029
6 1.1479%  $                             6.00  $                    0.0689
7 0.1611%  $                           50.00  $                    0.0806
8 0.0135%  $                         580.00  $                    0.0785
9 0.0006%  $                    10,000.00  $                    0.0612
10 0.00001122%  $               1,000,000.00  $                    0.1122

100.00%
 $                    0.6516

Whenever the winning ticket is sold at North Ryde RSL (which it always seems to be when a big jackpot goes off) I assume it is Zeljko and team. No evidence for that apart from a story written a long time ago - might have been posted on this forum - that mentioned something along those lines.

Online jfc

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« 2019-Nov-09, 10:56 AM Reply #417 »
I calculate $4,105,555 is the Jackpot required for fair value.

But if you're on a 10% Kickback it's a mere $3,213,942.

When they launch into action  the Keno page will be palpable.

Note how the Connecticut Lottery Corp denied the perps special treatment.

In stark contrast to officers here.

And contrary to Bubba's observation that said officers retire to idyllic islands, I note that those here eventually resign to accept sinecures with the perps!

Online jfc

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« 2019-Dec-25, 09:11 AM Reply #418 »
So it's just about Kickbacks!

Who knew!



Online jfc

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« 2020-Mar-03, 06:15 PM Reply #419 »
What a relief to hear Marc without Pollett talking all over him.

I found this extremely informative as it fills in some of the gaps in my awareness of that scene.

https://racingrant.com/blogs/news/this-punting-life-episode-2-marc-lambourne-humbleton-1

Online Antitab#

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« 2020-Mar-04, 07:17 AM Reply #420 »
Im worried for the bad luck Mark may have just bought upon himself.

"The first rule in the tribe, we never divulge the tribes secrets"

Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2020-Apr-14, 07:05 AM Reply #421 »
Interesting seeing this fellow start drip feeding his Humbleton anecdotes now. Zeljko's reputation for secrecy is also running out of gas in London. Ever since the charismatic former Monsanto PR exec Bernard Marantelli teamed up with "Z" the leaks have been more and more evident. Marantelli has spent the last few years boasting about his exchange deals, his TAB rebates and has even boasted of a having a 7 million GBP credit line with Betfair.

The thing that has got most British professionals seething is Bernie's oft repeated boast that he has never paid the hated "Premium Charge" because the liquidity he provides to Betfair is "special". What is odd about all of this is that no-one has ever been able to decipher if Bernie is talking about Zeljko, Walsh or himself being "special".

To go back to the original point no-one is fearful about speaking up about Humbleton, Walsh, Zeljko or anything else nowadays because the constantly boastful Marantelli has called Zeljko's bluff over these past few years anytime he has had more than a few beers :beer: :beer: :beer: Whether or not Shelley is as understanding remains to be seen though :unsu

Offline Tracksuitdave

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« 2020-Apr-15, 05:04 AM Reply #422 »
How British professional gambler took aim at $25.8M Lotto jackpot in Connecticut - November 9, 2019
Or How Zeljko flunkie done in more of Z's retirement fund  :lol:  

Full article on this link as US news sites seem to be blocking foreign traffic

https://justpaste.it/42ih9

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Apr-15, 02:15 PM Reply #423 »
That is always the risk when you adopt this strategy of chasing jackpots.

I pointed that out a long time ago when he was chasing Keno jackpots and got patronizingly patted on the back of the head and told I didn't know what I was talking about.

It is gambling. Once in a while he is going to come across the little old lady putting her 10 numbers on in Glen Innes Ex-Serviceman's Club who has a fluke.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Apr-15, 02:56 PM Reply #424 »
Don't you mean "Glen Innes & District Services Club"?.


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