Zeljko Exposed - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Zeljko Exposed - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Zeljko Exposed  (Read 132742 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7004
« 2019-Aug-22, 07:10 AM Reply #400 »

74,249 bets greater than $2 and all the profit from these is wiped out by just 25 Lay bets where their "win fair price (WFP)" is calculated to be less than or equal to $1.25; after capping the max lay to the bank of $10k.

Laying a contingency is equivalent to Backing its complement.

By my calculations, for Fair Prices <= $1.25 the Kelly Fraction will always be below 20% - or $2,000.

So why the capping?

If anyone disagrees show us your calculations and I'll show you mine.

Incidentally the more I look at the exercises the more absurd it seems.



Offline Grega9430

  • Listed
  • User 267
  • Posts: 496
« 2019-Aug-22, 12:25 PM Reply #401 »
I have these three capped at their $10k bank?


win_fair_price   win_starting_price
1.082              1.022
1.08                      1.03
1.124                  1.046


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7004
« 2019-Aug-22, 04:17 PM Reply #402 »
Here's my workout for the 1st one.

1.0819 Fair Price
1.0219 SP

Laying that is equivalent to Backing the Complement.

13.2100 Fair Price Complement
46.6621 SP Complement

5.545800% Kelly Fraction
$554.58 Stake
$25,323.28 Net Winnings

So $25,323.28 is the required Lay Stake.

So you are correct about capping.

My Kelly Fraction was correct, but I was wrong in not realising that the Back Winnings (hence Lay Stake) could exceed the Bank.


Offline Grega9430

  • Listed
  • User 267
  • Posts: 496
« 2019-Aug-22, 06:16 PM Reply #403 »
Copy, this "project" still blows the net winnings (before 5% commission) from 74,249 bets on the 25 Lay bets at WFP less than 1.25, as 24 of these won.

It only needed one of these bigger lay bets (Winx) to get beat at $1.10 to correct that plus some, a lot hinging on one result.

16% their maximum overs seems light, but again not sure if dataset is real.


Offline Tracksuitdave

  • class1
  • User 2517
  • Posts: 16
« 2019-Sep-06, 05:50 AM Reply #404 »
Zeljko hitting new lows with the success of his Guaranteed Jackpot greyhound betting pools


https://twitter.com/MrTimeform/status/1169679511107117056?s=20

« Last Edit: 2019-Sep-06, 05:52 AM by Tracksuitdave »


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap