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Racehorse TALK



Recent Posts

Recent Posts

1
Racing Talk / Down Goes Another Of Lloyd's Trainers
« Last post by JWesleyHarding on 1 minute ago »
....why doesn't he just get a licence? 

Think about it for a sec.   :chin: :chin:
2
Racing Talk / Down Goes Another Of Lloyd's Trainers
« Last post by Dave on 8 minutes ago »
nemesis training horses in someone else's name seems like something that needs attention....why doesn't he just get a licence? You could be the world's best driver and own a fleet of cars but you still can't drive on the roads using someone else's licence
3
Racing Talk / The 'free' press and the other dope scandal
« Last post by Dave on 12 minutes ago »
Pete most punters lose because they are too lazy, try to fix that! A bad workman always blames the tools.....

Real experts do not have a job getting paid for their tips.........real experts do not always back what they think will win...........
Not everyone lives in Toorak or Sydney's Eastern Suburbs, Not everyone drives a Roll's Royce's for one reason....Price! Why is racing and punting any different?

You put a value on each horse the same as you do when looking to purchase any product,
contrary to what you think I bet a lot of astute punters win on the races you think were impossible, regardless of the winners price

You see most tipsters(as opposed to experts) tip the fav/s, the obvious, then their followers follow them in and they start even shorter, much shorter than they should be.....but that makes plenty of value elsewhere in the market, allowing the smart punter to back multiple horses in the race for a decent profit,

If a horse's price is $3 (fav)it means the market assesses it as having a 33% chance of winning, alternatively a 66% chance of losing....so even assuming the Market is correct......the chance are double that it will lose than it will win....so when it gets beaten why are you so surprised??

Punters will back the fav cos they think it will win even if they think the odds are too short, it is called MOB mentality......they would rather lose with the Mob than win on their own......cos they are too scared of the risk that they will lose on their own

Punting is not an exact science so you need to leave plenty of margin for error in your assessments as well, backing (false)faves leaves very little room for error, Australian racing has a lot of idiosyncrasies, i.e Caulfield 1400 is uphill from the getgo and always turning so getting caught wide and working early takes a much bigger toll than most other tracks, Flemington is a very flat track so they can tend to slow up over the 1400 this can cause problems....the trick is to take advantage of those things and look for value

I just don't know how to dumb it down any more, do some homework and do not rely on tips
4
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by specialweek2 on 40 minutes ago »
Grafton Tuesday
5
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by westie on 43 minutes ago »
ECHUCA
R1. 9
R2. 1
R3. 8
R4. 5
R5. 8
R6. 4
R7. 7
R8. 3

Cheers
6
Racing Talk / So Si Bon pays a heavy price
« Last post by Dave on 46 minutes ago »
I have seen mares and Geldings do the same thing, Trainers want all horses gelded, 1st they race on for longer, even the good ones, Trainer wins, second you do not need competent experienced staff to look after mares and Geldings, trainer wins again.....3rd you can lead 2 even 3 geldings/mare combinations at a time so you need less staff than you do if you have multiple Stallions in your stable, they need individual strappers, saving big dollars on staff numbers, I'll leave it to you to figure out who wins again......there are multiple good reasons for gelding a horse, to make them a better racehorse isn't one of them........that was the first time that horse has done that, first reaction is to get out the knife? Obviously the horse isn't as good as first thought, he is very good and may even be competitive in the right Group One.......he is still a young horse, he has been around in everything........he was probably just sick and tired of the merry-go-round he was on.........and he may still have some maturing to do.....that is what improves a horse, not gelding them..........there have been a few trainers whose strike rate has dropped off in the last couple of years for obvious reasons, this is one of them......but that is another story
7
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by Racehorses on 54 minutes ago »
R1#10
R2#10
R3#8
R4#10
R5#3
R6#12
R7#5
R8#7
 -())=(
8
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by specialweek2 on 57 minutes ago »
1.    11
2.    10
3.    8
4.    12
5.    3
6.    4
7.    7
8.    7

Media

1.    9
2.    7
3.    8
4.    2
5.    2
6.    7
7.    2
8.    1
9
Racing Talk / So Si Bon pays a heavy price
« Last post by ianb on 1 hour ago »
Exactly my thoughts .
10
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by ratsack on 4 hours ago »
R1 #10
R2 #3
R3 #8
R4 #7
R5 #11
R6 #10
R7 #7
R8 #7
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