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Recent Posts

Recent Posts

1
Racing Talk / TAB punters abandoned by the media
« Last post by wily ole dog on 1 hour ago »
Wily my issue with Gunbower is he would not give a tip if his life depended on it and yet he will take any opportunity to brow beat.

With any wet tracks  the first thing I look for is wet track sires and on Saturday in race 2 the I saw the daughter of Hold That Tiger....Evil Lil
Now she won at $26.00 and it was very exciting and you do wonder why punting can seem so easy at times.
However my 3 horses in the running double with her did not win so you're quickly  reminded it is a tough game.
Now I could pop up a few reasons, under the guise of having a shot at P Mair, why Evil Lil carrying 3kgs under the limit and by a good wet track sire was a good bet but anything after the race is only a boast.


Nem, both you and I found Lil and it was only $20 on the paramutal pool compared to the fixed prices of $34 or more so a lot of punters found it as well.
It's not after the fact by talking about it here and it certainly exposed the crap that mair goes on with.

According to mair it should not have been in the field, He believes it caused interference cuz it's odds were large and was why monty's horse lost. He also thinks it being in the field is corruption and that you and I only backed it because of insider trading.

The bloke is a dishonest, self interested fool and has to be countered every time he puts his finger on the keyboard given this is a racing discussion forum
2
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by specialweek2 on 2 hours ago »
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Media

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PP7,

You cannot see the woods for the trees.

YOU have dead money with your approach despite claiming otherwise.

Only those with a 100% strike rate for single combo bets do not have dead money.

And thus my semantics comments - you are being unrealistic with your definition.

Fours

4
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by ratsack on 2 hours ago »
R1 #4
R2 #5
R3 #16
R4 #7
R5 #8
R6 #5
R7 #10
R8 #16
5
PP7,

Bad luck in running IS a reality that you have to take into account mathematically. Acordingly multiplication is lore relevant to the discussion than addition.

AND PP7 semantics is not mathematics.

Fours

Yes but do you have any evidence/"more complex" input for the discussion other than your statements like:

"semantics is not mathematics" or

"BIG profits too once the long term picture is considered.".

??

These seem like thought bubbles to me.

Maybe I shouldn't expect any more than this on social media.

Tell you what. I've just completed a survey of around 4,000 races with all sorts of stats and was willing to share them with the forum in the interests discussion on (what is to me) a most interesting subject.

But if all I am going to get is abuse from jfc and a lesson in phraseology from you I think I'll shutup and just go and make some money.

Sionara.
6
PP7,

Bad luck in running IS a reality that you have to take into account mathematically. Acordingly multiplication is lore relevant to the discussion than addition.

AND PP7 semantics is not mathematics.

Fours
7
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by Racehorses on 3 hours ago »
R1#2
R2#13
R3#9
R4#6
R5#1
R6#2
R7#5
R8#4

 -())=(
8
PP7,

If you are only ever having a bet on one race than your definition is fine.

Otherwise you have to look at the results of many races.....  where your defintion falls short of reality.

If one wants to succeed where the premium players don't have things stitched up so much, than losing bets or a lower strike rate is a big part of your reality.

Durendal finsihes behind Great Shot one prep and behind Viddora the next. How did Great Shot go this prep? Any clues there?

Pounamu has little luck in running and runs a close up 6th, Next start others have bad luck in running and Pounamu wins at 20/1. Dead money following these two for sure on your defintion but BIG profits too once the long term picture is considered.

Fours

That is exactly what I am saying fours (highlighted).

And looking at my results, and as you would expect, the quinellas and exactas were more successful than trifectas and first fours in the small sample.

Your subsequent discussion has very little to do with what I am talking about, especially the part about Durendal, Great Shot and Viddora.

I accept that there will be a lower strike rate the more complex the exotic is, but, apart from being trivially obvious, when you do strike one you won't be having a measly 2% (or whatever) on it.

Do you have any mathematics to add to the discussion about dead money?
9
Racing Talk / TAB punters abandoned by the media
« Last post by gunbower on 3 hours ago »
Gee sounds like Nemisis is having a little boast. He used his dartboard to pick a winner based on breeding. The dam of the winner put together a spectacular career where she managed one win (in a Kyneton maiden ) from thirty two starts. The horse she beat on that wondrous day achieved a solitary win from twenty three starts. That was in a Parkes maiden. Super Stuff. The sire must have been foaled in a river. You should apply for a position as a newspaper tipster. You are just blessed.
10
PP7,

If you are only ever having a bet on one race than your definition is fine.

Otherwise you have to look at the results of many races.....  where your defintion falls short of reality.

If one wants to succeed where the premium players don't have things stitched up so much, than losing bets or a lower strike rate is a big part of your reality.

Durendal finsihes behind Great Shot one prep and behind Viddora the next. How did Great Shot go this prep? Any clues there?

Pounamu has little luck in running and runs a close up 6th, Next start others have bad luck in running and Pounamu wins at 20/1. Dead money following these two for sure on your defintion but BIG profits too once the long term picture is considered.

Fours
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