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Recent Posts

Recent Posts

1
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by specialweek2 on 19 minutes ago »
1.    6
2.    12
3.    10
4.    5
5.    3
6.    8
7.    4
2
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by JWesleyHarding on 54 minutes ago »
1-4
2-1
3-10
4-2
5-3
6-6
7-5

3
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by ratsack on 1 hour ago »
R1#5
R2#11
R3#2
R4#9
R5#3
R6#3
R7#1
4
Sports Talk / Jerry and Marge go large
« Last post by jfc on 1 hour ago »
The Huff article is quite good.

But you don't need to be a MIT student to see this is insane free money.

The Michigan game was 6 from 49.

=HYPGEOMDIST(3,6,6,49)

is the probability for 3 numbers correct. The other possibilities follow.

In the ~90% of times where no one picks 6:

For an outlay of $1,032 you expect

$1,000 from 1 correct 4
$850 from 17 correct 3

So even if you miss the 4 you still haven't lost that much.

The EV of ~90% of ~2.3 is insane!

5
Sports Talk / Jerry and Marge go large
« Last post by fours on 2 hours ago »
jfc,

This perceived edge for the bigger players ( note I said perceived rather than real ) is what Peter Mair moans about all the time.

Fours
6
Comps & Clubs / THE WEEKDAY TIPPING COMP
« Last post by Brian Mc on 2 hours ago »
Scone August 15
R1 #4
R2 #12
R3 #10
R4 #2
R5 #8   
R6 #6
R7 #5
7
Sports Talk / Jerry and Marge go large
« Last post by jfc on 4 hours ago »
Jerry & Marge Go Large is based on the true story of Jerry (Bryan Cranston) and Marge Selbee (Annette Bening) who used a loophole in the Massachusetts State Lottery to win $27 million.

Last night, on 60 Minutes, Liz Hayes did her typically weak piece on the couple above.

Rather than try to endure her effort, here are some links about the true story. which I'm currently working through.

It's essentially a story of public official incompetence, bordering on corruption.

Not dissimilar to what Zeljko continues to enjoy with Keno.

He is almost certain to have exploited these ones as well.

https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/lotto-winners/

http://www.jofamericanscience.org/journals/am-sci/0201/06-lihao-0106.pdf
8

Bookmakers and racing administrators --- a dangerous association for punters

A story in the SMH this morning tells one side of a complex story -- higher taxes on bookmaker turnover reduce bookmaker profits.

The racing media will not, however, write the other side of the double take -- that bookmakers 'sponsor' inflated fields to get the rough-results that see bookmakers take-all to their bottom line from the corrupted races.

More 100% take-outs  is not good news for punters!

..............the margins offered by major Australian wagering operators .............found market percentages were on average two per cent higher in June than the same time last year. ... predicted to only get worse

NSW’s POC rate was lifted from 10 to 15 per cent for this financial year, ......... the levy is passed on to punters. ...........worse in Queensland and the ACT (20 per cent), while South Australia and Western Australia (15 per cent) will surely be joined by Victoria (10 per cent) imminently.

‘‘Unfortunately, the industry is turning into a poker machine.’’


https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/the-industry-is-turning-into-a-poker-machine-is-prizemoney-bubble-set-to-burst-20220813-p5b9l2.html
9
Comps & Clubs / Spring 2022 Competition
« Last post by chalky on 2022-Aug-14, 11:43 PM  »
I'd love to have a crack, thanks for organising Brian.
10
Did Cassim win the Royal Whip 1964 for which you say you’ve been unable to locate much info?
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