AFL 2015 - Sports Talk - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

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AFL 2015 - Sports Talk - Racehorse TALK

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Online PoisonPen7

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O.P. « 2015-Mar-12, 10:20 PM »
A thread for 2015 discussion about the great Aussie game.

Team To Win Flag Top 4 Top 8 Minor Premiership
Hawthorn $4.00 $1.28 $1.05 $2.50
Port Adelaide $4.75 $1.75 $1.18 $5.50
Sydney $4.75 $1.45 $1.08 $4.50
Fremantle $9.00 $1.95 $1.25 $7.00
North Melbourne $13.00 $3.00 $1.45 $15.00
Geelong $15.00 $3.50 $1.50 $17.00
Adelaide $21.00 $3.50 $1.90 $21.00
Collingwood $26.00 $8.00 $3.00 $51.00
Gold Coast $26.00 $7.00 $2.25 $34.00
Richmond $26.00 $6.00 $2.10 $34.00
West Coast $26.00 $3.75 $1.90 $17.00
Essendon $34.00 $5.50 $2.25 $51.00
Carlton $51.00 $11.00 $3.25 $67.00
Brisbane $67.00 $13.00 $3.50 $67.00
GWS $201.00 $51.00 $7.00 $251.00
Western Bulldogs $201.00 $67.00 $9.00 $251.00
Melbourne $251.00 $101.00 $11.00 $501.00
St Kilda $251.00 $101.00 $11.00 $501.00

* Tatts market 12/03/2015



« Last Edit: 2016-May-28, 08:52 AM by PoisonPen7 »

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2015-Mar-12, 10:25 PM Reply #1 »
Ladbrokes have a special where if you have a pre-season bet on the GF winner they'll give you a bonus bet equal to your stake if they make the GF but lose.

Away from the very top of the table I thought the Dockers might be worth a bet under those conditions?

Pavlich having his last season might inspire them this year  :bulb:

Online Bubbasmith

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« 2015-Mar-23, 05:54 AM Reply #2 »
To counter Ladbrokes pre-season bet on the GF winner William Hill have come up with the "opportunity to share" for a $5 bet, in $100,000,000 in selecting the correct finishing order of the 18 teams at the end of the season.  Theoretically the odds of selecting the correct order are in the billions to one, however if one breaks down that finishing order into practical terms it is an interesting calculation.I have no idea what particular teams will finish in what particular order and would think the finishing order between 7th and 12th would be impossible , however I have assumed the top and bottom 6 would be more predictable.
Assuming last year's form, there is no known way Hawthorn, Port Adelaide or Fremantle could finish 18th or 17th and conversely St.Kilda, Melbourne or Western Bulldogs could finish 1st or 2nd. On this basis I have made the following assumptions about the top 6 and the bottom 6 for calculation purposes.
1st:4 possible teams
2nd:4 possible teams
3rd:5 possible teams
4th:5 possible teams
5th: 6 possible teams
6th: 6 possible teams
18th: 4 possible teams
17th: 4 possible teams
16th:5 possible teams
15th : 5 possible teams
14th:6 possible teams
13th: 6 possible teams.
Using the rational for those 12 places  the odds are 207,360,000 / 1, let alone predicting those between 7th and 12th.
I reckon William Hill are on pretty safe grounds offering that "generous" 100,000,000  / 5 when one considers the true odds of picking 18 teams in correct order.  
Some years ago the VRC offered a similar opportunity for a person to select the finishing order in the Melbourne Cup , and of course no one got near it, but at least, unlike William Hill, it cost nothing to enter
« Last Edit: 2015-Mar-23, 09:16 AM by Bubbasmith »

Online jfc

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« 2015-Mar-23, 07:27 AM Reply #3 »
Using Betfair Odds and applying the Harville Formula, I calculate the True Odds for the Favoured Way as:

1,373,789,405

Offline Lert

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« 2015-Mar-23, 09:07 AM Reply #4 »
To counter Ladbrokes pre-season bet on the GF winner William Hill have come up with the "opportunity to share" for a $5 bet, in $100,000,000 in selecting the correct finishing order of the 18 teams at the end of the season.
..................
I reckon William Hill are on pretty safe grounds offering that "generous" 100,000,000  / 1 when one considers the true odds of picking 18 teams in correct order. 

From what you say William Hill are offering $100,000,000 / 5, so only odds of $20,000,000 / 1.    Well unders!

Online Bubbasmith

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« 2015-Mar-23, 09:15 AM Reply #5 »
Using Betfair Odds and applying the Harville Formula, I calculate the True Odds for the Favoured Way as:

1,373,789,405


The favoured way ?

Online jfc

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« 2015-Mar-23, 10:24 AM Reply #6 »
The favoured way ?
Favoured Way = Most Likely

Not sure why that wouldn't be clear.

As to why my number is 563% higher than yours.

The 17th Roots of those a

3.17
3.53

Where my figure is merely 12% higher.




Online Bubbasmith

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« 2015-Mar-23, 01:19 PM Reply #7 »
Favoured Way = Most Likely

Not sure why that wouldn't be clear.

As to why my number is 563% higher than yours.

The 17th Roots of those a

3.17
3.53

Where my figure is merely 12% higher.


Under your 'favoured way " who do you have as 1st & 2nd and 17th & 18th ?
You may have calculated the theoretical odds, which of course are irrelevant as I posed Hawthorn , Fremantle will not finish 18th or even 17th, likewise St Kilda will not finish 1st.

Offline el zoro

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« 2015-Mar-23, 01:48 PM Reply #8 »
The Lions must be due to make their way into the Top8 this year. With new recruits Beams & Rockliff & Leppa as Coach should be in it for a long way.

At $3.50 to make the 8, must be way overs. 
  :chin:

Offline ACER

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« 2015-Mar-25, 06:14 PM Reply #9 »
Don't know who is offering $3.50.
You can get around $5 at most places.
Can't see them getting close with no spine whatsoever. Good mids only get you so far.
Who do they replace?
Plus Rockliffe is not a new recruit.
Somewhere 11th -15th realistic.

Offline Rad

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« 2015-Mar-30, 01:49 PM Reply #10 »
From the Herald Sun

2 Collingwood Players Test Positive

THE AFL has confirmed Collingwood players Lachlan Keeffe and Josh Thomas have tested positive to prohibited substances.

The Pies are expected to comment today after the league revealed the Pies players had positive tests for performance-enhancing substances. It is the latest controversy to rock the industry, with Fremantle player Ryan Crowley to face an anti-doping panel in May after testing positive to a painkiller banned on match day.

The Pies and AFL had refused to answer calls from the Herald Sun last night but the league today confirmed it was notified by ASADA of the tests, believed to be earlier in the year.

The pair have tested positive to the substance clenbuterol, and have been immediately provisionally suspended by the league.

Clenbuterol is an anabolic agent and on the more serious end of the ASADA code, which could result in two-year suspensions for the pair.

The players have not had their B sample tested, which will take place on April 14, 2015.

The players allowed the release of their names and details by the AFL.

Clenbuterol is used to strip fat and build muscle.

Both players have told the club they have no idea how or why they tested positive.

ASADA had requested Collingwood’s pre-season program, which includes their trip to New Zealand.

Internally the Pies have done a review of their diet and nutritional program and are positive the substance is not connected to their own program.

Collingwood have been unable to receive full details of what Keeffe and Thomas ingested or drank outside the Pies’ program.

Clenbuterol is the substance involved in the suspension of Tour de France champion Alberto Contador.

Aussie champion Michael Rogers was also set to be sanctioned after clenbuterol turned up in his urine.

But he was able to convince authorities it was in his body after he ate contaminated meat in China.

It is the fourth instance of a club being involved in the use of PEDs since 2012, with St Kilda’s Ahmed Saad banned for 18 months.

Crowley has claimed he ingested a banned substance through a pain-killer.

He is facing a suspension of up to two years.

The Essendon 34 will learn of their futures tomorrow at 2pm.

Offline firezuki

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« 2015-Mar-30, 06:57 PM Reply #11 »
Clenbuterol is used to strip fat and build muscle.

Both players have told the club they have no idea how or why they tested positive.


I'd suggest to strip fat and build muscle. 

Offline Spudda028

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« 2015-Mar-30, 08:08 PM Reply #12 »
Looking forward to Open Mike tonight with Browny as Mike's guest

Offline Skybeau

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« 2015-Mar-31, 01:26 PM Reply #13 »
Dons not guilty, what a monumental cock up by ASADA

Offline Rad

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« 2015-Mar-31, 01:42 PM Reply #14 »
Dons not guilty, what a monumental cock up by ASADA

2 years of hell for so many people!!! I wonder if ASADA want to appeal. That would be a popular move!!

Offline Tevez17

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« 2015-Mar-31, 03:05 PM Reply #15 »
ASADA didn't find them not guilty an afl panel did...

Offline Spudda028

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« 2015-Mar-31, 03:28 PM Reply #16 »
ASADA meeting tonight will determine if they appeal or not

Online Bubbasmith

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« 2015-Mar-31, 05:15 PM Reply #17 »
The vast bulk of the population were under the misapprehension that  the Bombers were charged with having injected 30 or so illegal drugs / supplements. The ASADA case was over only one ''supplement" - for which there was no physical evidence. The case against the Bombers, at least the publicly stated case, which was all the public were to go on, was wholly circumstantial and laughably weak.

Thus the tribunal verdict of NOT GUILTY.

Online Bubbasmith

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« 2015-Mar-31, 05:35 PM Reply #18 »
ASADA didn't find them not guilty an afl panel did...

That is case with any trial by jury , the jury determines the guilt, or not of a defendant, not the government or the general public. How much more taxpayers money is ASADA blowing in pursuing the Bombers  on what is nothing more than circumstantial evidence  ?
« Last Edit: 2015-Mar-31, 05:38 PM by Bubbasmith »

Offline Skybeau

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« 2015-Mar-31, 05:37 PM Reply #19 »
ASADA didn't find them not guilty an afl panel did...

The "darkest" day in Australian sport and they couldn't submit enough evidence to the panel to get a guilty verdict.  It's a massive cock up and waste of money.

Online Bubbasmith

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« 2015-Mar-31, 05:46 PM Reply #20 »
The "darkest" day in Australian sport and they couldn't submit enough evidence to the panel to get a guilty verdict.  It's a massive cock up and waste of money.

It was all about politics, the ALP was in trouble in the polls and tried to divert attention to that "darkest day " in Australian sport. Jason Clare and Kate Lundy, who has since 'retired ' from politics, should hang their heads in shame and as for that Australian of the Year, Adam Goodes, in his recent statement " they all should be rubbed out", without hearing any evidence, only vindicates the only reason he was made Australian of the Year was due to his ethnicity.   

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2015-Mar-31, 08:56 PM Reply #21 »
I've copped abuse for suggesting that Cronulla Sharks had no case to answer because of lack of evidence.

The ALP in their dying days tried to push through legislation that meant that ASADA didn't require any evidence to gain a conviction. Thank God the Greens showed some common sense and rejected it - think about it for a moment - guilty with no evidence!! What sort of precedent would that set.

Some people seem to have trouble coming to terms with our evidence-based judicial systems. In the Age Of Information any bush lawyer can post his or her legal opinion, no matter how stupid.

Well done to the the AFL anti-doping tribunal. At last some common sense in amongst all the sensationalist crap.

What about those ASADA leaks to selected media mates. Surely those should be followed up on. The head of ASADA should not have been allowed to get a free walk. She has a lot to answer for. There has been an abuse of privilege at the highest level to satisfy political masters.

« Last Edit: 2015-Mar-31, 08:59 PM by PoisonPen7 »

Offline worldisavampire

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« 2015-Mar-31, 10:35 PM Reply #22 »
The only reason Easendon got off was because nobody knows what they were injected with. Well, nobody except Danks and his cronies.

The AFL doesn't know. Asada doesn't know. The Players don't know.

Of course they couldn't be found guilty but the whole thing has been horrible for the game.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2015-Mar-31, 10:55 PM Reply #23 »
The only reason Easendon got off was because nobody knows what they were injected with. Well, nobody except Danks and his cronies.

The AFL doesn't know. Asada doesn't know. The Players don't know.

Of course they couldn't be found guilty but the whole thing has been horrible for the game.

So vamps if nobody knows what they were injected with, then why do you say they "got off". What did they get off from?

Surely one of the most important details in any charge of the use of performance enhancing drugs would be the knowledge of what drug was used, along with details of when it was used, a positive swab, etc.


Offline firezuki

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« 2015-Mar-31, 11:13 PM Reply #24 »
They know what was found on the premises but they can't prove that the players were injected with it. 

It should have been that Essendon proved they didn't inject their players with a banned substance. 


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