Betfair's Mundane Exotics - Sports Talk - Racehorse TALK   harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Betfair's Mundane Exotics - Sports Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Betfair's Mundane Exotics  (Read 11120 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-Feb-05, 06:13 PM Reply #25 »
Currently I'm in no position to do anything resembling a thorough analysis, but my brief look suggests the Australian WAPs are also wrong.

For today's file (for Friday).

HARMEAN
  9.42 BSP
  8.22 WAP

AVERAGE (A far inferior metric)
45.30 BSP
36.80 WAP

This cannot be correct!

Because if it was true it would mean enough free money to fill Zeljko's swimming pools!




Offline stiffarm

  • Class3
  • User 2721
  • Posts: 39
« 2022-Feb-06, 03:36 AM Reply #26 »


Based on my collected stream data from 2021 this is the histogram plot of pct diff between VWAP (based on traded volume) and BSP


« Last Edit: 2022-Feb-06, 03:40 AM by stiffarm »

Offline stiffarm

  • Class3
  • User 2721
  • Posts: 39
« 2022-Feb-06, 04:10 AM Reply #27 »
I should add that the outliers are coming from markets that have very thin liquidity where a big BSP bet is capable of skewing things

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-Mar-11, 02:28 PM Reply #28 »
Probably I'd better present a well overdue explanation about what my intention is in this thread.

The Fact Book tells us the annual Tote Exotics market is $4 Billion.

Not all of that is suitable for Betfair to easily take on - but $1 Billion is, and that's hardly something to sneeze at.

By now everyone here should be aware that the V'landys manifesto Exotics Rakes are obscene.

And no less obscene are the Exotics Kickbacks gifted to special oligarchs.

Now, it's hardly a stretch to assume there is ~$100 million of disgruntled Exotics Turnover just itching to find refuge elsewhere.

An amazing opportunity for Betfair to be that refuge.

All it has to do is to provide properly managed Exotics, and it has a huge win. As does that disgruntled money.

And V'landys manifesto is destroyed even further. Who, bar a breeding oligarch, would be unhappy with that outcome!

But, no, for 20 years now, Betfair prefers to mismanage Exotics - squandering a company-maker opportunity.







Offline bascoe

  • Open
  • User 2568
  • Posts: 188
« 2022-Mar-18, 05:00 PM Reply #29 »
As of December 2021 for Vic Tote...


My guess is that when a national tote eventuates we will get hit with whopping T/O increases in the name of "fill in the spin here"

John Wren would be turning again at these rates..
« Last Edit: 2022-Mar-18, 08:47 PM by bascoe »

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-Apr-06, 05:25 PM Reply #30 »
Some Exotics are harder for Betfair to stuff up, but even then they fail to take off.

For many AFL Futures Markets a crucial time comes before the season starts.

But that 6 month period is wasted. No one is going to persevere checking when Betfair finally deigns to put up those Markets.

And there is a straightforward solution to this.

What Betfair should do is have a page comparing AFL Futures Odds to that of its rivals.

And persuade its Seeders to ensure that page is always filled with better prices. It's hardly a tough ask, considering how lame the opposition is.

This way there would be an extra 6 months of something for AFL fans to contemplate.

If they see their team showing a better price than the opposition they'll be more confident playing it, those Markets would build up, and finally launch.

There would be a money flow from Tabcorp and other rogues into Betfair, if only Betfair put in the slightest effort.





Offline stiffarm

  • Class3
  • User 2721
  • Posts: 39
« 2022-Apr-13, 11:18 AM Reply #31 »
I have attempted to seed/market make on Betfair on these markets, as well as other derivative markets on sports. My prices are "correct" and by that I mean my calculations are correct based on market data but I always end up getting steam rolled by fundamental models that are better than the market. I have never worked out how to overcome this information asymmetry.

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-Apr-14, 07:52 PM Reply #32 »
This morning Betfair still had Man City & Real Madrid at $1,000 to meet in the Champions League Final.

I was very tempted about this apparent $6 shot but restrained myself enough to confirm that were meeting in the Semi so their true Finals Odds is $Infinity.

However I went back and found that someone had actually backed this impossibility.

This is remarkable incompetence by Betfair.

It is an extremely popular event with world-wide interest.

Yet Betfair is not only leaving impossibilities to dag about there, but also not bothering to put up 3 out of the remaining 4 possibilities.

Had Betfair bothered to manage the Market it should easily top $50,000. And more would spill over into related Markets.

But Betfair insists on driving Exotics players away!



Offline stiffarm

  • Class3
  • User 2721
  • Posts: 39
« 2022-May-15, 06:50 AM Reply #33 »
Some big opportunities on the Eurovision markets on Betfair, markets in serious disconnect

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-May-15, 06:16 PM Reply #34 »
My record Hold is for last year's Eurovision.

This year Ukraine mucked things up but I still had one of my highest Holds.

It's probably the easiest Market for Layers.

The key is to ignore everything about it because it is completely irrational.

So if you fancy a song or act for sound reasons you will almost certainly be led astray.

But there was ~$20 million matched.

Betfair could easily find other Markets similar to the best bits of Eurovision - that all contingencies get matched, and reap the rewards.

Instead it continues to pollute its site with rubbish that turns off nearly everyone.

Offline stiffarm

  • Class3
  • User 2721
  • Posts: 39
« 2022-May-16, 03:03 AM Reply #35 »
I found some big opportunities arbing the winner v winner w/o Ukraine market, small market but still free money

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 9960
« 2022-May-16, 06:32 AM Reply #36 »
Hmmmm,

Free yes but arbing means the taxman has a cut.

Fours

Offline stiffarm

  • Class3
  • User 2721
  • Posts: 39
« 2022-May-18, 11:12 AM Reply #37 »
Are you doing much action on the AUS election JFC?

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-May-18, 12:07 PM Reply #38 »
Zero.

I'm very disinterested in the whole process.


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-Jun-05, 03:04 PM Reply #39 »
I've given up wasting time on Betfair's AFL Quinella, but was surprised to find it had healthy turnover.

Even more shocked to find there were 65 Combs.

Had Betfair finally succumbed to my 20 year long dissertations that Boxes are wrong and evil!

It took a while to sort through the mess to find that in fact this outfit, so addicted to Boxes, had failed to realise Box12 = 66.  That is the Quants have forgotten to add one of the Combinations!

Now, as to the 12 teams that made the Betfair cut:

Essendon = Equal Last in betting.
GWS = 13th

Who failed the cut?

Gold Coast 12th

and

Collingwood  11th


Presumably Betfair's analytics team determined that Collingwood fans lack the Gambling vice.

Funny thing is on the Handicap Market Gold Coast is the outright leader on Volume.

And these 2 rejects are actually the most overbacked!


Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 7726
« 2022-Jun-18, 07:17 PM Reply #40 »
Only after Collingwood thumped Sydney did Betfair deign to add it to the Quinella Market.

Persisting with its deranged dogma of mathematically obscene Boxes.

And off it went with 12 Combos.

Including with:

Essendon @1,000 Premiers

Port Adelaide & GWS - @1,000 Quinella (earlier).

Why on earth clutter up a Market further with such garbage that no one is interested in playing!



BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap