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Author Topic: Sports Multi  (Read 551 times)

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Offline Bubbasmith

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O.P. « 2017-May-05, 08:44 PM »
One corporate bookie is offering an AFL Sports Multi where punters can place a bet coupling the result of of a game into which team wins the coin toss into the first goal scorer in the game. The market percentage on the game is around 103 % , the coin toss is 106% but the first goal scorer is 147%. From my maths that means punters are betting into a market of 160 %. No doubt many naive supporters of AFL teams will be sucked into that multi bet.How any punter could lock in a bet based on a coin toss, let alone the first goal scorer,is beyond my comprehension, but I guess there is one born every day.

Offline Wenona

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« 2017-May-06, 08:29 PM Reply #1 »
Is the team who wins the toss more likely to score the first goal in AFL?


Offline sobig

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« 2017-May-06, 08:34 PM Reply #2 »
Yes if there is a strongish wind, otherwise should be totally independent of the toss.

Offline arthur

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« 2017-May-06, 08:35 PM Reply #3 »
Check the odds . .

The bookies will have the stats

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2017-May-07, 07:23 AM Reply #4 »
Even if the kicking of the first goal is advantaged by the winning of the coin toss it is irrelevant to a multi punter because his multi bet was placed before the coin toss.
Linking a random coin toss with which team might win or which player might kick the first goal , both of which may require a little reasoning, illustrates that a three leg multi based on those outcomes is for mug punters

Offline Wenona

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« 2017-May-07, 02:39 PM Reply #5 »
If the team winning the toss is favoured to score the first goal, you can't offer a near 100% market on the first goal if you are allowing it to be coupled with the toss market in a multiple.




Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2017-May-07, 06:09 PM Reply #6 »
The multi for the first goal is not the team it is the individual nominated player from either team..there are eighteen players on the field plus interchangers from each team, any of whom might kick the first goal

Offline Wenona

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« 2017-May-07, 08:03 PM Reply #7 »
Yes, I'm aware of that.

Online jfc

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« 2017-May-08, 10:18 AM Reply #8 »
Will the team winning the toss opt to kick with a strong tail wind?

Are a player's chance of kicking the 1st goal improved by:

His team winning the toss.
Enjoying a tail wind.
Not playing as a deep forward in such circumstances.

I'd guess so.

In which case playing such Multis could be lucrative.

Consider North Melbourne's 1st quarter scoring spree where a number of their goals were from set shots outside the 50.

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2017-May-08, 10:52 AM Reply #9 »
jfc, To be alive in your 3 leg multi your team must win the coin toss, otherwise which player kicks the first goal and what team might win the much are dead in the water.If by chance your team wins the toss and kicks with a tail wind it is more than likely one of your team will kick the first goal, but which player ? That in itself is a raffle, and to top that off and each list of players in each team is around 123%. Finally your team must win the game.

Online jfc

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« 2017-May-08, 11:19 AM Reply #10 »
I theorise that with a strong tail wind.

- Long shots at goal increase
- Forward areas get more congested

In both cases the chances of key forwards are reduced.

So simply eliminate those forwards from your bets and take lots of others, from both teams, at presumably far fatter Odds.

If the Odds Setter at some Corporate is oblivious to ground conditions then the Odds are likely to be exploitable.


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