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ZORO'S NRL SYSTEM 2009 - Sports Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: ZORO'S NRL SYSTEM 2009  (Read 4089 times)

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Offline el zoro

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O.P. « 2009-Mar-02, 11:37 PM »
Time to get ready for the NRL Season again. Over the last 2 seasons I've tried my hand at posting tips based on my NRL System with mixed results.
I have reviewed the past 2 seasons & using some logic, pruned it into a system for betting on NRL games. Basically I am only concentrating on matches with a decent advantage to one side(CLEAR PICKS) & getting reasonable value.($1.60+)
For 2009 I will not be posting the system points for each match but rather only posting the 'Actual Bets'.


THE RULES
1) Each NRL team will have their 10 most valuable players listed.
2) Of these Star Players get 2 points, Good Players 1 point.
3) The home team gets an advantage of 1 point.
4) Every NRL match is then rated based on the team playing lists.
5) Identify Matches where one side has a minimum of 11 pts & at least a 3 pt advantage over the other team. They become a CLEAR PICK.
6) The Minimum Odds required is $1.60.(Head to Head betting only)
7) My 'Most Valuable Player' List can be changed every 5 rounds for form reasons BUT NOT for injury reasons. In other words if a player in the club is showing good form I may include them on my list & drop off another player but if a player on my list gets injured, he can't be replaced.
 

BET SELECTION OPPONENT PTS+ ODDS SCORE STAKE RESULT BALANCE POT
1  Broncos 13  Cowboys 10  3     1.83   19-18    200    +166    +166   +83.0
2  Tigers   14  Roosters 11   3     2.41   40-24    200    +282    +448   +112.0%
3  Rabbits 13  Warriors   9   4      2.61   22-16    200    +322    +770   +128.3%
4  Eels      14  Bulldogs  11  3      2.60  18-48     200   -200     +570   +71.2%
5  Rabbits 13  Sharks    10   3     1.61   32-26    200   +122     +692  +69.2%
6  Tigers   12  Knights    9   3     1.87   26-24    200    +174    +866  +72.1%
7  Sharks  11  Roosters  8   3      2.40   12-19   200     -200    +666   +47.5%         
8  Titans  15  Sea Eagles11  4     1.83   18-17   200     +166   +832  +52.0%            
9  Rabbits 14  Tigers 9        5      1.87   20-54   200    -200    +632  +35.1%                  
10 Rabbits 13  Broncos 9     4      2.45   44-12    200   +290    +922  +46.1%                        
11 Titans 14  Bulldogs 10     4      2.20   16-23    200   -200    +722   +32.8%                        
12 Warriors 11  Roosters  8  3      2.25   30-24    200   +250    +972   +40.5%                        
13 Titans 12   Warriors  7    5      1.62   30-10    200   +124   +1096  +42.1%                        
14 Warriors 12 Raiders 8      4      1.91   34-20    200   +182   +1278  +45.6%                        
15 Roosters 11 Cowboys 8   3      2.00   16-32    200   -200   +1078  +35.9%                        
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« Last Edit: 2009-Sep-07, 11:46 PM by el zoro »

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 12:01 AM Reply #1 »
OK here are some stats for the 2007/2008 seasons based on the above rules.
   ZORO'S NRL SYSTEM       
YEAR   BET   RETURN   P/L      %    WINS   BETS  %WINNERS
2007   1900   2399   499    26.2     13      19      68.4
2008   1500   2276   776    51.7     12      15      80.0
TOTL    3400   4675   1275   37.5   25      34      73.5
         
*Based on $100 bets.
« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-03, 12:21 AM by el zoro »

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 12:30 AM Reply #2 »
I will post my player lists for Round 1-5 shortly.
Any advice on the 'most valuable players'for each team is welcome. As from previous years, picking 10 players in each side is subjective & I'm sure there will be plenty of views about who should be/should not be on the lists.
I may even list a player or 2 not even playing for a club or leave out an obvious choice for a team. If I do feel free to point out my stupidity!  :lol:

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 12:09 PM Reply #3 »
New Page
  BRONCOS BULLDOGS COWBOYS DRAGONS EELS  
1 J CLINTON  H ELMASRI 2 M BOWEN 2 D BOYD L BURT 2  
2 I FOLAU 2 M ENNIS A GRAHAM M COOPER 2 N CAYLESS  
3 J HODGES 2 B HANNANT B HARRIS N COSTIGAN B FINCH  
4 K HUNT J HICKEY A KAUFUSI B CREAGH 2 E GROTHE  
5 D LOCKYER 2 J IDRIS L O'DONNELL M HEAD J HAYNE 2  
6 C PARKER B KIMMORLY 2 A PAYNE B MORRIS N HINDMARSH 2  
7 D TAYLOR J MORRIS S SOUTHERN 2 J SMITH K INU   
8 B TE'O L PATTEN J THURSTON 2 L PRIDDIS  F MATEO  
9 S THAIDAY 2 A RYAN W TONGA J SOWARD F MOIMOI  
10 P WALLACE D STAGG C WEBB C STANLEY T TAUTAI  
             
  KNIGHTS PANTHERS RABBITOHS RAIDERS ROOSTERS  
1 I DE GOIS P CIVONICEVA R ASOTASI 2 T CAMPESE 2 B ANASTA  
2 S DUREAU  L COOTE C BEST  J CARNEY 2 M AUBUSSON  
3 K GIDLEY 2 S ELFORD D FA'ALOGO P GRAHAM C FITZGIBBON   
4 J MULLEN 2 M GORDON D KIDWELL  B HARRISON S KENNYDOWALL  
5 W NAIQAMA M JENNINGS I LUKE D MILNE W MASON   
6 C PATERSON L LEWIS N MERRITT J MONAGHAN A MINICHIELO 2  
7 S SIMPSON 2 F PRITCHARD 2 C SANDOW 2 D TILSE N MYLES  
8 D TOLAR J SAMMUT L STUART A TONGUE  M O'MELEY 2  
9 A UATE B TIGHE C WING 2 DSHILLINGTON M PEARCE 2  
10 K LULIA T WATERHSE 2 R WESSER T THURLING I SOLIOLA  
             
  SEA EAGLES SHARKS STORM  TIGERS TITANS WARRIORS
1 M BALLIN T BARRETT 2 C CRONK 2 D COLLIS J ATKINS N FIEN
2 ACUTHBERTSON L COVELL 2 R HOFFMAN G ELLIS 2 L BAILEY 2 L HOHAIA
3 B KITE P GALLEN 2 G INGLIS 2 R FARAH 2 P CAMPBELL  S JONES 2
4 J LYON  B KEARNEY D JOHNSON L FULTON B DELANEY D KEMP
5 S MATAI 2 R MAITUA  J LIMA D HALATAU A HARRISON M LUCK
6 M ORFORD 2 B POMEROY A QUINN CHEIGHINGTON A LAFFRANCHI 2 W McKINNON2
7 B STEWART 2 B ROSS B SLATER 2 C LAWRENCE M MINICHIELO S PRICE 2
8 G STEWART B SEYMOUR C SMITH 2 J LEWIS S PRINCE 2 B TATE
9 A WATMOUGH 2 D SIMMONS S TURNER B MARSHALL 2 M ROGERS 2 M VATUVEI 
10 D WILLIAMS A TUPOU B WHITE T PAYTEN W ZILLMAN  M WITT
« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-03, 01:02 PM by el zoro »

Offline MagiC~*

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« 2009-Mar-03, 12:39 PM Reply #4 »
OK mate, you have to convert it to HTML first, there is a tutorial somewhere, then you have to post the html code inbetween these tags [html] paste content here [/html]

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Mar-03, 12:52 PM Reply #5 »
   Posting Excel to Website Discussion  ...under Forum Feedback :p

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 01:06 PM Reply #6 »
Thanks magiC, seems to have worked! 8-)
On Previous forum it listed names without the Lines but this is Good. :)

Offline gallopers

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« 2009-Mar-03, 01:18 PM Reply #7 »
does anyone have the stats from the last few years on the first month of play.
interested to see if you backed the outsiders in all matches over the first month for the last few years how you would end up.  :what:

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 01:32 PM Reply #8 »
As in previous years, there is a slight bias factored in for a very good reason. You will notice :
4 teams have 4 star players
9 teams have 3 star players
3 teams have 2 star players

The reasoning is that if a full Sea Eagles played at home v/s a full Panthers side, then scores would be Sea Eagles 15pts Panthers 12pts. (which is a 3 pt advantage to Sea Eagles)that the Sea Eagles should win. Of course they wouldn't be a bet unless they were $1.60 anyway which is where value is factored in. In another example if Raiders were at home v/s Storm (both with full sides) the scores would be Raiders 13pts Storm14 pts so would be no bet but if Storm were missing Slater & Smith they would only have 10pts & the Raiders would be the bet (if they were $1.60+)

Reviewing this system over the past 2 seasons, there would have been 25 wins out of 34 bets (73.5% strike rate) & a return of $4675 for $3400 outlayed (profit of 37.5%). Interesting to see how it does this year. 
The system uses the sound principles of best players available with home ground factored in & need value to be considered a bet.
Hope it all makes sense?   :lol:   Any questions feel free to reply?
 
  
« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-08, 11:34 AM by el zoro »

Offline Wenona

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« 2009-Mar-03, 05:22 PM Reply #9 »
Where are you betting? Are you using Betfair?

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 05:37 PM Reply #10 »
Have a few different accounts at my disposal. Centrebet, Betfair, Sportingbet, UniTAB. Of course have to factor in commission with Betfair.
Always good to have a few options to get a slightly better price.
:) 
Will also have to look into the Betting Agency affilliated with the Titans for this year. Who are they again?

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 07:28 PM Reply #11 »
Just joined up with www.titansbet.com.au (Titans affilliated with Betezy, a NT outfit). They promise "Huge Sign Up Bonus" but don't let you know what it is. :what: Well I have made a deposit so I'll see what type of free offer they throw my way tomorrow. I'm hoping it's HUGE like they say!   :biggrin:  

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Mar-03, 07:44 PM Reply #12 »
EZ,Make sure you check as to what type of bets they have.

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-03, 10:10 PM Reply #13 »
They bet on much the same as the others I have mentioned.
The only thing I have heard they are NOT allowed to bet on is tribrunal decisions. Not many out there bet on tribrunals & not something I'd bet on anyway. See below what they do bet on.


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Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-05, 10:30 PM Reply #14 »
Just joined up with www.titansbet.com.au (Titans affilliated with Betezy, a NT outfit). They promise "Huge Sign Up Bonus" but don't let you know what it is.  Well I have made a deposit so I'll see what type of free offer they throw my way tomorrow. I'm hoping it's HUGE like they say!

Well today they have credited my account but Freebet listed at $0.
I enquired on-line about what the huge bonus was & they said it's 25% of your initial deposit. :beer: (think they mean the value of the FREE bet will be 25% of my original deposit, which is pretty damn good, if they give me that, I guess you get the winnings from the bet but not the stake.)       

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Mar-05, 10:39 PM Reply #15 »
Have you joined sportingbet EZ? $30 deposit gives instand $100 free bet.
I've got 4 accounts so far   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-05, 10:48 PM Reply #16 »
Yep I have joined them about a month ago & got $100 Free Bet.
Have put it on Cowboys/Geelong Premiership Double @ $34.

Cowboys a bit of a roughie but free chance to pick up $3,300 for no cost. I like them odds.   :biggrin:

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-08, 11:22 AM Reply #17 »
Will make a few changes to original line-ups.
Basically Henderson in for Witt, Young in for Stanley.
Can't seem to modify the Posting so will try to post the updated one which will run for Weeks 1-5 of the season, then I'll review the lists again. 

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-08, 11:31 AM Reply #18 »
New Page
  BRONCOS BULLDOGS COWBOYS DRAGONS EELS  
1 J CLINTON  H ELMASRI 2 M BOWEN 2 D BOYD L BURT 2  
2 I FOLAU 2 M ENNIS A GRAHAM M COOPER 2 N CAYLESS  
3 J HODGES 2 B HANNANT B HARRIS N COSTIGAN B FINCH  
4 K HUNT J HICKEY A KAUFUSI B CREAGH 2 E GROTHE  
5 D LOCKYER 2 J IDRIS L O'DONNELL M HEAD J HAYNE 2  
6 C PARKER B KIMMORLY 2 A PAYNE B MORRIS N HINDMARSH 2  
7 D TAYLOR J MORRIS S SOUTHERN 2 J SMITH K INU   
8 B TE'O L PATTEN J THURSTON 2 L PRIDDIS  F MATEO  
9 S THAIDAY 2 A RYAN W TONGA J SOWARD F MOIMOI  
10 P WALLACE D STAGG C WEBB D YOUNG 2 T TAUTAI  
             
  KNIGHTS PANTHERS RABBITOHS RAIDERS ROOSTERS  
1 I DE GOIS P CIVONICEVA R ASOTASI 2 T CAMPESE 2 B ANASTA  
2 S DUREAU  L COOTE C BEST  J CARNEY 2 M AUBUSSON  
3 K GIDLEY 2 S ELFORD D FA'ALOGO P GRAHAM C FITZGIBBON   
4 J MULLEN 2 M GORDON D KIDWELL  B HARRISON S KENNY-DOWALL  
5 W NAIQAMA M JENNINGS I LUKE D MILNE W MASON   
6 C PATERSON L LEWIS N MERRITT J MONAGHAN A MINICHIELO 2  
7 S SIMPSON 2 F PRITCHARD 2 C SANDOW 2 D TILSE N MYLES  
8 D TOLAR J SAMMUT L STUART A TONGUE  M O'MELEY 2  
9 A UATE B TIGHE C WING 2 D SHILLINGTON M PEARCE 2  
10 K LULIA T WATERHSE 2 R WESSER T THURLING I SOLIOLA  
             
  SEA EAGLES SHARKS STORM  TIGERS TITANS WARRIORS
1 M BALLIN T BARRETT 2 C CRONK 2 D COLLIS J ATKINS N FIEN
2 A CUTHBERTSON L COVELL 2 R HOFFMAN G ELLIS 2 L BAILEY 2 I HENDERSON
3 B KITE P GALLEN 2 G INGLIS 2 R FARAH 2 P CAMPBELL  L HOHAIA
4 J LYON  B KEARNEY D JOHNSON L FULTON B DELANEY S JONES 2
5 S MATAI 2 R MAITUA  J LIMA D HALATAU A HARRISON D KEMP
6 M ORFORD 2 B POMEROY A QUINN C HEIGHINGTON A LAFFRANCHI 2 M LUCK
7 B STEWART 2 B ROSS B SLATER 2 C LAWRENCE M MINICHIELO W McKINNON 2
8 G STEWART B SEYMOUR C SMITH 2 J LEWIS S PRINCE 2 S PRICE 2
9 A WATMOUGH 2 D SIMMONS S TURNER B MARSHALL 2 M ROGERS 2 B TATE
10 D WILLIAMS A TUPOU B WHITE T PAYTEN W ZILLMAN  M VATUVEI 

Offline arakaan

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« 2009-Mar-08, 11:46 AM Reply #19 »
only thing I'll say about the tigers is the Josh Lewis isn't even on a wests Tigers contract or part of the top 25 squad. He is actually contracted to Balmain.

don't think he should be included ahead of a top 25 contracted player if you want your rankings to be accurate.

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-08, 11:50 AM Reply #20 »
The posting seems to have worked, thanks to Magic for his help. 8-)
I will post what the bet/s are each week (if their is a bet)on Friday.
The bets I post will be the actual odds & bets I place. This will be the best price offered by the agencies at the time I make the bet. $200 on each bet, level stakes.
 
  

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-08, 02:04 PM Reply #21 »
thanks Arakaan , thought Lewis would be the new halfback with Benji at 5/8th. Lewis is listed in the 25 player list on NRL website. :/
He's a pretty good player so hope he gets a go this year. 
OK for my player list, I will replace him with T Moltzen, seems to be a promising type.

Offline arakaan

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« 2009-Mar-08, 02:16 PM Reply #22 »
OK I just saw Fulton in there. 

Ummm he isn't playing for us this year. to make room in the cap he was sent on loan to Huddersfield and won't be back at the tigers until next year.(they extended his contract, but havr to keep him in the 25 under minimum salary for this year).

better throw in another forward.

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-08, 05:20 PM Reply #23 »
OK L Fulton OUT - K Galloway IN
Remember Arakaan I can review after Round 5 if players get promoted/dropped for form reasons. Players can also be upgraded & downgraded due to performances.Also there are players not on my lists are 17 start & only have room for 10 so doesn't mean players left off will never make it. They'll be some changes for most teams.

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-11, 09:06 PM Reply #24 »
Had a look at Round 1 sides. A couple teams are clear picks but not at value odds required for a bet. Will check it out again on Friday to see if line-ups & odds change.    


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