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Gai Waterhouse STAT - Trainer - Racehorse TALK

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Offline Duke of Astor

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O.P. « 2009-Nov-27, 07:21 PM »
Stats tell a story.

It has been of some concern to me why such a Top trainer hardly has a runner in actual races.

The stable numbers at Randwick ?   Maybe somebody could enlighten me.



Forget about the Vic Spring Carnival as an excuse.....she didn't have that many there.

....and...she does trek off at times during a season of racing.

Surely it should be business as usual at Randwick, irrespective of Gai's presence.

Other training regimes seem unaffected by such diversions.


So look at this record for November as it nears completion.


From Nov1 till today Nov 27 (incl)....(w)win......(p) placed

City runners.....13....

Emotional Outburst
Golden Orient
Modonna
Exceedingly Happy
Herculian Prince
Devil's Arcade (w)
I Won't Dance
Joku (p)
Merensky Reef (p)
Shadow Assassin(p)
Emotional Outburst(w)
Modonna(p)
Stratofortress


Provincial Runners......7

Seventh Reason(P)
Rockwood
Powerage(P)
Exceedingly Happy(W)
Hidden Gem(W)
Common Objective
Seventh Reason (W)



BARRIER TRIALS......49

6 nov....6
13 nov.....13
20 nov...6

27 nov...24 at WYONG......did she charter a russian cargo plane? or Maybe she has shares in a float business.
Seems a very costly business to me.


Trials them she does, no TJ is she.








Steve M

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« 2009-Nov-27, 07:52 PM Reply #1 »
93 G1 winners all up? And 2 for the season ?

http://www.gaiwaterhouse.com.au/Results.asp

Don't know enough about her regular results but she's got a magnificent record overall.

If you want to talk about big operations with bad results I'm guessing David Hayes would be leading the charge?

Steve M

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« 2009-Nov-27, 07:57 PM Reply #2 »
Winds Of Change Amongst Training Ranks 
As of today Mark Kavanagh, with 35 winners, is the leading Metropolitan winning trainer in Australia for the first time post November.

At the end of the 2008/09 season the former South Australian trainer was not even in the top 20 metropolitan winning trainers in fact he only just snuck into the top 10 in Victoria.

So why is he on top now? Well the simple answer is numbers.

Kavanagh has doubled his stable size and the number of runners he would’ve had to this time last year.


But that’s just the simple answer; of course we all know there are plenty of stables that have had more runners than Mark.

There are a number of factors for his current success including: a greater number of runners; an incredible team of horses; arguably better training facilities.

However the two most determining factors are that he has his horses mentally and physically well and places them phenomenally.

He puts the right horse, in the right race, when they are feeling great and now he has enough of them to make a big splash in the Australian racing industry.

Case in point is Shocking's preparation for the Melbourne Cup.

It was precise, the lead up went to plan, the final Lexus Stakes tune up was calculated to perfection and the horse was spot on physically and mentally on the day so much so that even when everything went pear-shaped in the run with Kavanagh slumped, shaking his head in dismay, the horse was still able to produce under pressure.

There were better horses in the race, and some unlucky, but essentially those that had the runs to beat Shocking were over the top mentally – they were cooked.

This placement and planning is apparent in his chess like moves of horses to and from Adelaide throughout the carnival resulting in multiple winners across state lines on numerous occasions.

Not just the odd fluke.

Whilst Kavanagh heads this rejuvenated trainers premiership, missing names such as Waterhouse, Freedman and Parnham from its highest rungs, he is by no means Robinson Crusoe.

Hot on Kavanagh's tail, sitting second on the table, is New South Wales equivalent Chris Waller (34 wins).


Waller is endeavouring to put pressure on the mighty Waterhouse (20 wins) and Snowden (30 wins) teams and like Kavanagh now has the numbers to make a serious challenge.

Then there are Perth upstarts Jim Taylor (26.5 wins) and Adam Durrant (19 wins), both are riding the crest of a wave at present and barely a meeting goes by without one or both training a winner - or two.

Taylor's winning percentage of almost 30% has him perched above Freedman (22 wins) and Moody (23 wins) in fifth spot, yet he is not nearly as well known.

Durrant meanwhile manages to grab the tenth spot forcing out top ten stalwarts Parnham, Goggin and Price despite having only the 88 runners.

Of course Hayes (32 wins) and Snowden  manage to hold their positions in the top 5 albeit due to their vastly larger number of runners, but the tide is turning and some of the once smaller players like Waller and Kavanagh are getting bigger and so are their percentages.

It is only early days this season but the weight of numbers certainly suggest a changing of the guard - and perhaps a new king at the top of the trainer's table.

Picture - Quentin Lang

© Cyberhorse 2009 Grayson White Published 27/11/09
 

Offline motorboater

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« 2009-Nov-27, 08:04 PM Reply #3 »
I'd say a lot of trainers would have a high number of trialers this time of year with all the 2yos that come into the stables.

Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-27, 08:08 PM Reply #4 »
My concern is....such a big stable and many (a conservatively 60%) are ghosts to a raceday appearance, at any given time.


Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Nov-27, 08:10 PM Reply #5 »
If you're an owner you might be more interested in overall prizemoney return than number of race runs. It would be hard to gauge the success of a trainer from an owners point of view, factoring in the outlay price, ongoing fees, prizemoney return etc.

Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-27, 08:11 PM Reply #6 »
I'd say a lot of trainers would have a high number of trialers this time of year with all the 2yos that come into the stables.

Of the 24 that Gai trialled at way off WYONG today, 6 were 2yo 's

Steve M

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« 2009-Nov-27, 08:14 PM Reply #7 »
95% of my bets are placebets on trial form.

Waterhouse stable always has large number of triallers...not uncommon to see a horse with 4 trials to it's name prior to resuming. Generally they only start after a win or narrow loss if it's been to a trial...if not it's another trial prior to a raceday.

Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-27, 10:13 PM Reply #8 »
Here's my feeling about what is really happening.

Many will know the days of TJ and top Vet Percy Sykes.....a combination that guaranteed success.

And many of the top trainers coexisted with this kind of elite Veterinary knowledge.

These days...................I see a shift.

The Vets of today are for all,not for a few and the result is.....the lower scale trainer has achieved what the "top" has had.

Consequently, Hayes,Waterhouse and others have come back to the field. ( save them still getting the best bred for racing)

That's how I see it.
« Last Edit: 2009-Nov-27, 10:26 PM by Duke of Astor »

Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-27, 10:29 PM Reply #9 »
For instance, it's only a matter of time before Paul Messara will become in the top 10 trainers in Australia.....something like that.

For me , the Cummings clan will rule for the next 40 years. They're going to get bigger and better.

All a legacy of BART...he should be a very proud man

By the way....Bart's book is going cheap at TARGET.....K-Mart is offering a discount too, but can't match TA SHAY
« Last Edit: 2009-Nov-27, 10:41 PM by Duke of Astor »

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Nov-27, 11:09 PM Reply #10 »
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Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-28, 11:25 AM Reply #11 »
And many more to come....with you there.

Offline Gintara

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« 2009-Nov-28, 02:09 PM Reply #12 »
Here's my feeling about what is really happening.

Many will know the days of TJ and top Vet Percy Sykes.....a combination that guaranteed success.

And many of the top trainers coexisted with this kind of elite Veterinary knowledge.

These days...................I see a shift.

The Vets of today are for all,not for a few and the result is.....the lower scale trainer has achieved what the "top" has had.

Consequently, Hayes,Waterhouse and others have come back to the field. ( save them still getting the best bred for racing)

That's how I see it.

Good to see your still jumping at shadows Duke  :/

It's been fairly normal for Waterhouse to have down time and the naysayers start up. Her stable then fires up again and off she goes .........  bring this back up in 6 months and see if it's still relevant.

Offline Gintara

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« 2009-Nov-28, 02:26 PM Reply #13 »
For instance, it's only a matter of time before Paul Messara will become in the top 10 trainers in Australia.....something like that.

For me , the Cummings clan will rule for the next 40 years. They're going to get bigger and better.

All a legacy of BART...he should be a very proud man

By the way....Bart's book is going cheap at TARGET.....K-Mart is offering a discount too, but can't match TA SHAY

Considering the backing Messara has (and will get in the future) he's entittled to be in the top 10  :whistle:

As for Cummings, unless one of the grandsons step up I can't see it, AC doesn't hold a candle to JBC.
« Last Edit: 2009-Nov-28, 02:40 PM by Gintara »

Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-28, 02:39 PM Reply #14 »
Two youngsters of Anthony's? are handling the horses now.

One is now a Foreman for Bart(since John Thompson's departure), other for Anthony........James and ?(William?)....both look the part, as they are interviewed on TVN.

It's Gai who has the problem.....the line may die with her.


Offline Gintara

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« 2009-Nov-28, 02:42 PM Reply #15 »
Long way to go before they are out on their own Duke, although I have heard one interviewed and he came across well.


It's Gai who has the problem.....the line may die with her.



What's this got to do with now, the whole reason you started this thread  :what:

Offline Puntermatt

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« 2009-Nov-28, 02:43 PM Reply #16 »
Waterhouse is a Randwick specialist who through sheer weight of numbers (and salesmanship) , normally has some good 2yo's on the books. Most of these are then flogged as a 3yo (remember Tempest Morn) and are nowhere to be seen as older horses.

She still hasn't won one of the Big Three - MC, CP, CC and until she does, can hardly be regarded as one of the truely great trainers.

PM


Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-28, 02:54 PM Reply #17 »
Long way to go before they are out on their own Duke, although I have heard one interviewed and he came across well.

What's this got to do with now, the whole reason you started this thread  :what:

I just thought it a fair response to your previous message.


Offline Duke of Astor

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« 2009-Nov-28, 02:56 PM Reply #18 »
@ 2.26 pm today.

Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Nov-28, 03:06 PM Reply #19 »
Waterhouse is a Randwick specialist who through sheer weight of numbers (and salesmanship) , normally has some good 2yo's on the books. Most of these are then flogged as a 3yo (remember Tempest Morn) and are nowhere to be seen as older horses.

She still hasn't won one of the Big Three - MC, CP, CC and until she does, can hardly be regarded as one of the truely great trainers.

PM



Her 4 & 5-y-o stock has been the most profitable to back !

Offline calgary

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« 2009-Nov-28, 05:31 PM Reply #20 »
Waterhouse is a Randwick specialist who through sheer weight of numbers (and salesmanship) , normally has some good 2yo's on the books. Most of these are then flogged as a 3yo (remember Tempest Morn) and are nowhere to be seen as older horses.

She still hasn't won one of the Big Three - MC, CP, CC and until she does, can hardly be regarded as one of the truely great trainers.

PM



Great call PM - my thoughts exactly.   emthup

Offline Authorized

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« 2010-Jan-09, 12:16 PM Reply #21 »
A truly great traning perfomance by the great woman and her team with Lorne Dancer.


Offline Gintara

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« 2010-Jan-09, 01:17 PM Reply #22 »
Stop it Auth. you'll ruin all of Duke's conspiracy theories  :rolleyes:

Offline westie

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« 2010-Jan-30, 02:39 PM Reply #23 »
Gai can't take a trick at the moment.

Offline seal

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« 2010-Jan-30, 02:53 PM Reply #24 »
sad 
« Last Edit: 2010-Jan-30, 05:02 PM by seal »


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