2020 Melbourne Cup - 3rd November - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

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2020 Melbourne Cup - 3rd November - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK

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Offline fours

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« 2020-Oct-19, 11:13 PM Reply #25 »
Geelong Cup   

Shared Ambition 11 and into 9 when mentioned - now $7.50.

Fours
hmmmm backed right in and then scratched........

okay scratched to go for a longer race with $100,000.00 more prize money on Saturday at the goat track. favourite too.
« Last Edit: 2020-Oct-22, 06:07 PM by fours »

Offline timw

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« 2020-Oct-22, 06:05 PM Reply #26 »
Verry Elleegant

If Verry Elleegant wins the Melbourne Cup she will be the first mare to win an open group1 or retrospective group 1 race over 7 furlongs / 1400 metres or less (in her case the Winx Stakes) and win a Melbourne Cup.

The 5 horses I can find that have achieved this feat a

Malua (AUS) 1879 (late Bagot)
1884 Oakleigh Plate
1884 Melbourne Cup

Comedy King (GB) 1907
1910 Caulfield Futurity Stakes
1910 Melbourne Cup

Phar Lap (NZ) 1926
1930  Melbourne Cup
1931 Caulfield Futurity Stakes

Jeune (GB) 1989
1994 Melbourne Cup
1995 C F Orr Stakes

Saintly (NZ) 1992
1996 Melbourne Cup
1997 CF Orr Stakes

Let's Elope won Orr Stakes when it was a group 2 race (Rising Fast won the Orr Stakes (nominally a group 2 race) and it was run over 1 mile).  Memsie Stakes was promoted from group 2 to group 1 in 2013.

Wakeful (AUS) 1896 and Eurythmic (AUS) 1916 won the Oakleigh Plate and Futurity Stakes respectively and won the Sydney Cup.

Horses that I have found that won a group 1 or retrospective group 1 open race over a mile and the Melbourne Cup a

Tim Whiffler (AUS) 1862
Glencoe (1864) 
Briseis (AUS) 1873
Carbine (NZ) 1885
Nightmarch (NZ) 1925
Peter Pan (AUS) 1929
Hall Mark (AUS) 1930
The Trump (AUS) 1932
Galilee (NZ) 1962

‘Open’ means races open to horses that are 4YO or older.

Any errors let me know.

Cheers

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Oct-22, 07:02 PM Reply #27 »
Let's Elope won Orr Stakes when it was a group 2 race (Rising Fast won the Orr Stakes (nominally a group 2 race) and it was run over 1 mile).  Memsie Stakes was promoted from group 2 to group 1

At Talaq did that as well.


Offline Peter Mair

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« 2020-Oct-22, 07:26 PM Reply #28 »


.............. the, still so-called,  'Cup' has no comparable historical relevance in 2020

................... as with Australia riding 'on the sheeps'-back' in the 1950s ........... on Holden&Ford rivalry .... and other similar historical realities ......... any idea that 'the cup' is still an event of relevant cultural significance is just nonsense.

.................. it is a nonsense that is exploited by RVL .......... a diminished racing administrator now continuing to promote a day's racing event in Australia that must now surely count as one of the worst deceptions of a gullible public.

.... and the deception does not stop at this one day, it is now every day ...... it should be stopped.




Offline pwa54

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« 2020-Oct-22, 08:15 PM Reply #29 »
A comprehensive list, Tim.

I think Comic Court deserves mention as he won current G1s, the William Reid and the Orr Stakes at his next 2 starts after his Melbourne Cup victory.

Rain Lover won a Memsie and Windbag the Warwick Stakes, although they're also outside your criterion.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Oct-22, 08:19 PM Reply #30 »
Speaking of diminished racing administrators  :lol:

By the way Peter  what was the field size of the cup if 1946?

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Oct-26, 06:46 AM Reply #31 »
Looks like Chairman Dan strikes again.

Cup blow: VRC makes big call on crowds for carnival

The famed Melbourne Cup carnival will be held without crowds after the Victoria Racing Club conceded on Sunday it “will not be possible to welcome spectators” because of COVID-19 restrictions.

VRC chairman Amanda Elliott said the VRC had worked closely with authorities over the last few months and had tendered a comprehensive submission to the Victorian Government detailing how the VRC could safely host small crowds within government and public health guidelines.

The club said it was “now clear that none of this is possible”.

“While we are very disappointed not to be able to welcome our members and racegoers to Cup Week, we understand the government’s commitment to keeping our community safe. We also recognise the need for certainty and clarity for our patrons, being only six days out from Derby Day,” Mrs Elliott said.

“We are still in discussions regarding the potential return to the track for a small number of owners, as is currently permitted in regional Victoria.”

Mrs Elliott said the VRC would innovate to engage with absent audiences.

“What is certain is the Melbourne Cup carnival will go ahead with viewing audiences watching from across Australia and around the world,” she said.

...

“We’ve introduced a number of off-course initiatives including delicious picnic hampers, our Myer Fashions on your Front Lawn competition, the Lexus Melbourne Cup the Race of Dreams, digital Race book, tipping, sweepstakes competitions, trivia games as well as all the background stories to the horses, trainers and jockeys who will compete on the famous Flemington track.


https://www.racenet.com.au/news/its-official-there-will-be-no-crowds-at-the-melbourne-cup-20201025


Mrs Elliot claims as an initiative the digital racebook does she?

I wonder sometimes how in touch these board members really are  :nowink:

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Nov-02, 07:34 AM Reply #32 »
With fine warm weather forecast the next 2 days means a fairly firm Flemington.
Interesting to see how much irrigation will be applied.....seems to run straight through the profile anyway.

I wonder just how the visiting Galileo breed will let down on the surface......not generally a breed you look for on a firm Flemington.
I'm a bit split between Surprise Baby and Verry Elleegant.
Surprise Baby's sire Shocking has sired some horses that go well on some very hard tracks in NZ.
Verry Elleegant just looks to be a very special horse.

My other 2 for some exotics are Prince Of Arran and Steel Prince......all tried and tested in tomorrow's conditions.

Sure to be some very nervous Vic committee men tomorrow.......here's hoping "safe travel" for all horses at Flemington.

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2020-Nov-02, 07:45 AM Reply #33 »
I want a good watering.
I'm with Miami Bound.
It will be a longshot, but I keep replaying the 2019 Wakeful and then her Oaks.
She is a stayer.
Moonee Valley win showed a mare coming good.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Nov-02, 11:17 AM Reply #34 »
I think the Aussies will dominate.
Surprise Baby & Warning to fight it out.

Don’t  write off last years winner for a place along withThe Chosen One
 

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Nov-02, 03:29 PM Reply #35 »
Race 7 - 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)

Of $7,750,000.1st $4,400,000, 2nd $1,100,000, 3rd $550,000, 4th $350,000, 5th $230,000, 6th $160,000, 7th $160,000, 8th $160,000, 9th $160,000, 10th $160,000, 11th $160,000, 12th $160,000
Prize money contribution totalling 3% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 49kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Hcp Rating
1 0330x25x12 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Hugh Bowman 3 58.5 122
2 54533x4626 AVILIUS (GB) James Cummings John Allen 10 57 116
3 21x395x900 VOW AND DECLARE Danny O'Brien Jamie Mott 4 57 115
4 3354x6221x MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) Joseph O'Brien Ben Melham 11 56 113
5 44x2x222x1 SIR DRAGONET (IRE) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Glen Boss 14 55.5 121
6 x70x7x2113 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) Joseph O'Brien Jye McNeil 12 55.5 115
7 42212x1411 VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) Chris Waller Mark Zahra 15 55.5 116
8 x1225x0098 MUSTAJEER (GB) Kris Lees Michael Rodd 2 55 114
9 2104xPx72x STRATUM ALBION (GB) Willie Mullins Jordan Childs 9 55 114
10 14579x1140 DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) Andrew Balding Michael Walker 19 54.5 112
11 x51257x335 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller James McDonald 6 54.5 112
12 20x3x36x34 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Jamie Kah 1 54.5 113
13 132x415x29 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) Paul Preusker Craig Williams 7 54.5 112
14 9x211x2x03 KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) Danny O'Brien Damian Lane 18 53.5 109
15 2x411x2123 RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) Danny O'Brien Damien Oliver 16 53.5 118
16 x4679x0331 STEEL PRINCE (IRE) Anthony & Sam Freedman William Pike 21 53.5 111
17 38572x1873 THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman Daniel Stackhouse 5 53.5 111
18 853x5x2241 ASHRUN (FR) Andreas Wohler Declan Bates 24 53 110
19 755633x760 WARNING Anthony & Sam Freedman Luke Currie 8 53 115
20 6416341x04 ETAH JAMES (NZ) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Billy Egan 22 52.5 106
21 3x12x1 TIGER MOTH (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Kerrin McEvoy 23 52.5 114
22 07511x0003 OCEANEX (NZ) Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) Dean Yendall 17 51.5 108
23 1x84x40661 MIAMI BOUND (NZ) Danny O'Brien Daniel Moor 13 51 111
24 3121112121 PERSAN Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Michael Dee 20 51 107

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Nov-02, 03:32 PM Reply #36 »
I had a crack at rating the race last night. Not really convinced I've got it right. Hard to have Russian Camelot given the way Sir Dragonet rushed past him in the Cox Plate but 3200m might be a different matter.

And how on earth do you rate Tiger Moth  :what:

No Last 10 Horse Barrier Weight Rating Note Net Rank Odds
5 44x2x222x1 SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 14 55.5 76
71.5 1 9.5
15 2x411x2123 RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 16 53.5 73
70.5 2 12
1 0330x25x12 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) 3 58.5 76.5
69 3 8
7 42212x1411 VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 15 55.5 73.5
69 3 11
17 38572x1873 THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 5 53.5 70.5
68 5 41
11 x51257x335 FINCHE (GB) 6 54.5 71
67.5 6 18
12 20x3x36x34 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 1 54.5 71
67.5 6 11
4 3354x6221x MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 11 56 72
67 8 23
20 6416341x04 ETAH JAMES (NZ) 22 52.5 68.5
67 8 81
2 54533x4626 AVILIUS (GB) 10 57 72.5
66.5 10 51
13 132x415x29 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 7 54.5 69.5
66 11 9.5
21 3x12x1 TIGER MOTH (IRE) 23 52.5 67.5 Arbitrary 66 11 8
23 1x84x40661 MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 13 51 66
66 11 41
10 14579x1140 DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) 19 54.5 69
65.5 14 81
24 3121112121 PERSAN 20 51 65.5
65.5 14 31
16 x4679x0331 STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 21 53.5 67.5
65 16 34
14 9x211x2x03 KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) 18 53.5 67
64.5 17 41
6 x70x7x2113 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 12 55.5 68.5
64 18 26
18 853x5x2241 ASHRUN (FR) 24 53 66
64 18 21
8 x1225x0098 MUSTAJEER (GB) 2 55 67.5
63.5 20 91
9 2104xPx72x STRATUM ALBION (GB) 9 55 67.5 Arbitrary 63.5 20 46
22 07511x0003 OCEANEX (NZ) 17 51.5 64
63.5 20 61
3 21x395x900 VOW AND DECLARE 4 57 69
63 23 61
19 755633x760 WARNING 8 53 63.5
61.5 24 51

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Nov-02, 03:46 PM Reply #37 »
Aside from the ratings my thoughts we

i) Verry Elleegant is so consistent at the top level. If you have a bit of faith in the horse she can see out 3200m, and a bit of faith in the trainer - neither hard to do - then she looks an outstanding each way bet at the $11.

ii) Like Shogun, I was impressed with the finish of Miami Bound at the end of the 2500m last start. She looked very strong and gets in with a featherweight.

iii) Sir Anthony Van Dyke picks himself. Must be included as a major chance in spite of the weight.

iv) Sir Dragonet's Cox Plate win, and his previous form in England (only beaten 0.8 L by Sir Anthony in The Derby) means he must be treated seriously.

v) Prince Of Arran's run in the Caulfield Cup, and his previous efforts in The Cup, suggests he will once again be in the finish here.

vi) Finche was only beaten 1.4 lengths last year and was also an outstanding CC run - wide all the way.

vii) Avilius was also a good run in the CC and the Godolphin colours could be in the finish.

viii) No idea how to treat Tiger Moth. 4 starts to go on. Intuitively appears to be poor value at the odds but if the stable ran Radish or anything I'd give it a chance.


I am going to work around 1-5-7-23 (in no particular order) and have 4, 11, 12, 13 and 21 stood out on a quinella with the other 4 as some sort of saver.


Good luck with your bets on the 2020 Cup!

 

Offline specialweek2

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« 2020-Nov-02, 04:04 PM Reply #38 »
PP nice elevation in status of Anthony Van Dyck

Offline fours

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« 2020-Nov-02, 04:33 PM Reply #39 »
Think Miami Bound is a few lengths off them - 4th at best

Fours

Offline Arsenal

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« 2020-Nov-02, 04:34 PM Reply #40 »
For what it's worth I'm going with FINCHE on top but a very hard race luck in running is vital......there are at least 6 others that wouldn't surprise and I might have missed the winner even then .......I don't understand how Tiger Moth qualified for a run with only 4 runs under his belt and earnings of only $352,409......yet he's equal favourite ......amongst  the most consistent runners is the bottom weight PERSAN..... it took him 10 starts to win a maiden.... since then he has raced 8 times for 5 wins and 3 seconds ....not tried at 3200 but has won @2500 sired by Pierro which might be a negative....I don't recall the Maestro Bart's formula for the number of miles in the legs required to win the Cup  but PERSAN must have clocked up the magic number...he's worth an EW ticket IMO...  I don't think there's much between Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment for Lloyd and  I don't fancy his other runner King Of Leogrance....I reckon Michael Walker pulled the wrong rein getting  off Prince Of Arran for Dashing Willoughby.......which gives Jamie Kah a chance to be the second female to win the Cup......every Melbourne Cup day I think of my great grandfather Billy English with a mixture of sadness & pride  as a 19yo he rode ARSENAL to win in 1886....he was killed after a race fall at Canterbury a few years later.

Good Luck to everyone.

Giddy Up  :beer:

Offline Jeunes

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« 2020-Nov-02, 05:11 PM Reply #41 »
Considering I have not backed a MC winner for ages, I have decided to listen to family, friends and work colleagues on why they are picking horses. Then I then selected them based on most creative ideas or stupidity. I have listed below their reasons and I will back them all in a tri or first four.

Finche (old family member)- I feed birds every day and if I win, I can buy bird seed.

Warning (HR rep) - I have given staff several warnings this month after returning from Covid19 for inappropriate clothing

Surprise Baby (young girl at work) - if it wins, husband won’t be annoyed when I get home with new clothes.

Prince of Arran (Scottish friend) - Reminds me of home.

Twilight Payment (copper friend) - busted enough of these.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Nov-02, 07:48 PM Reply #42 »
PP nice elevation in status of Anthony Van Dyck

  :lol:

If i get the trifecta and he is involved he will become Sir Anthony.

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Nov-02, 09:09 PM Reply #43 »
I want a good watering.
I'm with Miami Bound.
It will be a longshot, but I keep replaying the 2019 Wakeful and then her Oaks.
She is a stayer.
Moonee Valley win showed a mare coming good.

She'll be running a huge winner for me as well. Wins the Wakeful, wins the Oaks by over 3L lengths, comes from last to win the MV Cup by 2.5L. She looks a bit special to me with lots of upside. 51kg and on at 40-1 ..... that price looks ridiculous.

Offline fours

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« 2020-Nov-02, 09:12 PM Reply #44 »
No doubting the wins but I checked the times.

Happy to have egg on my face and good luck fellas.

Fours

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Nov-02, 09:50 PM Reply #45 »
......every Melbourne Cup day I think of my great grandfather Billy English with a mixture of sadness & pride  as a 19yo he rode ARSENAL to win in 1886....he was killed after a race fall at Canterbury a few years later.


Never knew that mate. Very interesting piece of history attached to you personally and very sad end.

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Nov-02, 10:31 PM Reply #46 »
Using Gary Crispe's Timeform ratings and my Melbourne Cup Handicapper I get :

ReqdHorse
$7.83 Anthony Van Dyck
$8.19 Sir Dragonet
$11.94 Tiger Moth
$12.00 Russian Camelot
$16.09 Ashrun
$17.21 Verry Elleegant
$17.44 Prince Of Arran
$17.61 Miami Bound
$20.77 Surprise Baby
$29.02 The Chosen One
$31.07 Finche
$32.11 Twilight Payment
$33.32 King Of Leogrance
$35.95 Steel Prince
$35.95 Persan
$43.33 Stratum Albion
$52.21 Dashing Willoughby
$54.47 Master of Reality
$55.09 Warning
$64.12 Vow And Declare
$98.72 Avilius
$181.96 Mustajeer
$201.37 Oceanex
$474.15 Etah James

This year is a bit of a milestone for me ...... my 50th year betting on the Cup. Backed Igloo each way in 1971 ...... thought he was home at the 200.
« Last Edit: 2020-Nov-02, 10:52 PM by Wenona »

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Nov-03, 05:35 AM Reply #47 »
I'm not surprised Gary Crispe would have rated Ashrun fairly high.
I've already done my win and place bets but I'm inclined to think I've passed over Ashrun too easily.....I'm going to correct that and will include him in my exotics.

There's a bit to like about his style as well and his win on Saturday at Flemington on Sat.....times, weights firm track....when he balanced up  it was very impressive..
His action reminds me a bit of Americain and while he will luck from his barrier.....luck is something they all will need.

I don't follow international racing that closely but I haven't seen a good Authorized for a while.....Hartnell raced really well on Australian tracks.
I see the son of Montjeu now stands in Turkey.  :what:

Offline Antitab#

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« 2020-Nov-03, 06:25 AM Reply #48 »
I thought Ashrun was spectacular on Saturday off a slow pace with a big weight. Barrier has dented my confidence.

I have seen plenty worse 60/1 chances than Avilius, thought he was very good in the Caulfield Cup.

Online Brian Mc

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« 2020-Nov-03, 07:37 AM Reply #49 »
Wide, wide open.

I've slowly whittled the chances down but have still nine, three form the top of the weights, three from the middjle and three from the light weights. Four stand out from the Caulfield Cup, two from the Cox, one from the MV Cup, one from the Bart Cummings and one from Ireland.  Of the nine, all but one have a stablemate in the group.

For the little it's worth to anyone else, where I am is Anthony Van Dyke, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finche, Prince of Arran, Russian Camelot,Tiger Moth, Miami Bound and Persan,

And, when push comes to shove, let's say
1 Verry Elleegant
2. Sir Dragonet
3. Miami Bound.

However, I would not be in the least surprised of all three placegetters come from the  horses I have discarded.
I've been trying to tip the winner of this race since I got it right as a 7-yearold when Skipton won in 1941 and this is as even a field as I have looked at.



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