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Darley Australian Cup - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK

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Offline westie

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O.P. « 2009-Feb-08, 02:16 PM »
8 - 4.05PM -  DARLEY AUSTRALIAN CUP - 2000M

Of $1000000 and $5000 trophy.  1st $600000 and trophy of $5000, 2nd $180000, 3rd $90000, 4th $45000, 5th $25000, 6th $20000, 7th $20000, 8th $20000.  Standard Weight for Age. (GROUP 1).  No Allowances for apprentices.  Field Limit: 16 + 4 EM

NoHorseTrainerJockey Barrier WeightPenaltyHandicapper
Rating
1NICONERODavid HayesCraig Williams 10 59 114
2MASTER O'REILLY (NZ)Danny O'BrienVlad Duric 11 59 114
3BLUTIGEROOColin LittleLuke Nolen 9 59 108
4THESEOGai WaterhouseNash Rawiller 1 59 116
5FIUMICINO (NZ)Michael, Wayne & John HawkesSteven King 5 59 108
6SCENIC SHOTDaniel MortonJason Brown 8 59 106
7BAUGHURSTBill & Symon WildeDamien Oliver 6 59 108
8ROAD TO ROCKAnthony CummingsBlake Shinn 4 59 104
9ZAGREBDavid HayesKerrin McEvoy 3 59 100
10ZARITA (NZ)Pat HylandDwayne Dunn 2 57 110
11ARAPAHO MISSPat CareyGlen Boss 12 57 98
12PRE EMINENCEMick PriceCraig Newitt 7 54.5 98
« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-05, 11:10 AM by westie »

Offline Bamboo Harvester

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« 2009-Mar-05, 08:45 AM Reply #1 »
Thoughts here?

I see 2 variables deciding this race.

1. Pace - not invited.  Theseo should get his own way and if he does, he wins.  But will some nutter take him on?  If so, the race opens up a bit.  Maybe then Baughurst good enough to race 2-3 off the pace and run him down.  Master O.R. might drift a bit further back?

2. Niconero.  Hard to see those from the St George turning around 4l in a similarly run race, so maybe Niconero is the only horse who can take a sit AND sprint quickly enough to run Theseo down off a moderate tempo.  But he's had two runs at 2,000m and never been near it: 11th when right out of form in the Oz Cup (was 100/1) and 11th in Cox Plate when in OK form.  Can he run out a decent 2,000m or not?  Over the past 2 years, he's been dodgy off a 7 day break as well.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2009-Mar-05, 09:59 AM Reply #2 »
Barrier draw will play a massive part.
I haven't seen it as yet

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2009-Mar-05, 10:30 AM Reply #3 »
Nice analysis mate...I'm torn between two of my favorite horses (in Theseo and Niconero)
both of whom I think are underrated sometimes...both of the horses last runs have been super as well. My head says Theseo, but a think there is nearly no horse in the land could keep ole Nic out when he is on song. His finish last week , having to cross heels and then surge at Light Fantastic was spectacular...would love to see him do same on Sat.
I reckon he'll (finally!) be ready to show us he can run the 2000...
easy Exacta: Nic from Theseo...

Offline Jeunes

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« 2009-Mar-05, 11:32 AM Reply #4 »
Maybe the Shot for vaule in the tris and first 4s.

Offline stuey102

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« 2009-Mar-05, 11:42 AM Reply #5 »
Barrier draw will play a massive part.
I haven't seen it as yet

Its in the first post.

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2009-Mar-05, 11:59 AM Reply #6 »
Not sure barriers play such an important part in this, Wily?
It is after all, a 2000m race....plenty of time around the back to get where ya wanna be....plenty of time up the long Flem straight to win...
who are you thinking will have their race altered by draw?...interested and not trying to be picky.

Offline Tevez17

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« 2009-Mar-05, 12:14 PM Reply #7 »
If it's dry then the $5 the place on ARAPAHO MISS looks good.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2009-Mar-05, 12:22 PM Reply #8 »
Shit, I had another one of my nice Reward for Effort doubles going into Master O but he has no hope from that draw :mad:

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Mar-05, 03:16 PM Reply #9 »
Like, yeah, as if a barrier will be Master Os biggest concern, if any other runner is taking him on for rearest position in the field than the stewards should be asking that jockey just what the  :censored:  they were attempting.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2009-Mar-05, 03:39 PM Reply #10 »
Author,

he raced mid field against the same lot last time and went very well.
From that marble he'll go straight back to the tail and with the lack of pace will have no  :censored: ing hope giving up 15 lengths.

if he was mid field he'd be only 5 or 6 off the lead and still be a hope

Offline shaun

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« 2009-Mar-05, 06:33 PM Reply #11 »
i don't know about a lack of pace....surely Baughurst is going to try and lead and serve it up to Theseo after the last win from Theseo debacle. if that happens then see Zarita and Road To Rock getting good runs if they are good enough.

Offline InJapan5

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« 2009-Mar-05, 06:48 PM Reply #12 »
May be just talk, but it doesn't sound like Baughurst is going to be taking Theseo on...


Wildes Wild About Baughurst 
Baughurst will be out to give trainer Bill Wilde and his co-trainer son Symon their biggest thrill in racing in Saturday's $1 million Australian Cup at Flemington.

Wilde, who combines training at Warrnambool with his profession as a dentist, has had plenty of success on country and city tracks although he has had few Group One runners, while Symon was his foreman for some time before gaining his licence earlier this season.

"We would have been happy to be running him in the smaller country Cups and races like the Hamilton and Warrnambool Cups, but he's exceeded all our expectations," he said.

"He's sounder than he ever has been and we are very excited about going into this race and hopefully he'll be competitive."

Baughurst shook off back problems which put him out of action for 20 months from when he was a late three-year-old and has come back to win the 2007 Hamilton Cup (2200m), Moonee Valley Country Cup (2040m) and the Werribee Cup (2000m), while last spring he won a 1700m event at Flemington as well as the Group Three Coongy Hcp (2000m) at Caulfield.

His placings include third to Zipping in the 2007 Group Two Sandown Classic, third to Zagreb in the 2008 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield, second to Light Vision in The Bart Cummings at Flemington, second to Gallopin in the Group Two Moonee Valley Cup and third to Capecover in the Group Three Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington.

He contested his first Group One race when resuming in the CF Orr Stakes (1400m) with an encouraging 3-1/2 length seventh to Maldivian at Caulfield on February 8.

Second-up he was ridden for the first time in his 38-start career by champion jockey Damien Oliver when he chased home Australian Cup favourite Theseo ($2.20), finishing 3-3/4-length runner-up in the Group Two St George Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield on February 21.

Oliver has stuck with the seven-year-old on Saturday.

Wilde believes Baughurst can finish closer to Theseo and maybe even beat him providing there is genuine speed in the race.

"There's certainly improvement in him. He did have a good blow and Ollie mentioned that he thought he could improve a bit. We know him well enough to know that he's nicely tuned up for this race," he said.

"His best runs in the past have been second, third, fourth-up and he's coming to his pet distance and I couldn't be happier with him. I'm delighted.

"If something took Theseo on and it became a genuinely-run race and he didn't get his own way in front, Baughurst is better ridden back off the speed and, although he's got only a short sprint, it is quite a sharp sprint when he does go.

"So that would be our only hope (of beating Theseo) - let him relax, do no work and come home with a withering burst with an inspired Ollie ride."

With Theseo dominating the betting, TAB Sportsbet fixed odds has Master O'Reilly, Road To Rock and Niconero equal second picks at $11 with Baughurst and Pre Eminence at $14 and Zagreb and Zarita next best at $16.

ゥ AAP 2009 Published 05/03/09
 

Offline stuey102

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« 2009-Mar-05, 06:52 PM Reply #13 »
Theres no chance it would take on Theseo. Why kill your own chances of running 2nd in an Australian Cup.

Offline wordedmeat

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« 2009-Mar-05, 09:51 PM Reply #14 »
why is theseo all of a sudden such a great leader?
was he not in the debacle that was the cox plate last year? what was his excuse then?????????????

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Mar-05, 10:25 PM Reply #15 »
why is theseo all of a sudden such a great leader?
was he not in the debacle that was the cox plate last year? what was his excuse then?????????????

He had a chance to lead but  :censored:  Nash tried to ease him and he reefed for his head for the next 800m

« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-05, 10:28 PM by OldLarsy »

Offline el zoro

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« 2009-Mar-05, 11:10 PM Reply #16 »
Zarita seems to be overs at 16/1. Should get a good run from barr 2.

Offline Bamboo Harvester

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« 2009-Mar-06, 05:39 AM Reply #17 »
Zarita seems to be overs at 16/1. Should get a good run from barr 2.

Agree that she seems overs.   But I can't see how she can win.  If it's a slack pace, she gets a trail behind Theseo...how does she turnaround 4 lengths from the St George?  If it's a fast pace (ie. something takes Theseo on or leads outright), then I can't see Zarita holding out a fast finisher from behind (Master O R, Baughurst...).  Reckon she's a must for trifectas... 
« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-06, 06:50 AM by Bamboo Harvester »

Offline Sporty

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« 2009-Mar-06, 10:17 AM Reply #18 »
Could we be seeing the new Grand Armee of racing with his style of racing now...?

Offline manikato1

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« 2009-Mar-06, 11:31 AM Reply #19 »
I suspect they weren't sure he could run out 2000m, they found out a week later he can.

Plus, as a contrarian, I don't think Flemington is a tough 2000m, in fact, I think it is one of the softest in the country, so running the trip is less of a concern.

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2009-Mar-08, 09:29 AM Reply #20 »
What a fantastic win and what a great race.....I have NO idea why people got off Nic,
I've been shouting his name fromthe rooftops for ages....2 previous failures at 2000 meant nothin to me...when you looked at his overall career and age etc. He is one serious racehorse...
I think he actually enjoys weavin his way through now...and what a great last 100 he must have done, as well as his last 600m. The tempo seemed only fair to me...am I right there or was he able to come home off a fastish pace?.
Theseo I thought kicked well in last 200 and certainly not disgraced.
And after tellin you guys on this thread exactly how it would play out...which  :censored:  failed to get his bet on? (sons birthday 12 kids etc) ....me.
I don't want to even know the exacta dividend.
At least I've got me eye in! 8-) 8-)

Offline allhigh

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« 2009-Mar-08, 02:19 PM Reply #21 »
 legend.......well done  :biggrin:

Offline Sporty

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« 2009-Mar-08, 02:40 PM Reply #22 »
I've watch the reply over a few times now...and Rawiller to my eye should of never pulled the stick on that horse....he trys to fight off road to rock...with rawiller giving him a few and he is strugggling to get away from him.....then all of a sudden ..rawiller puts it away...and rides out hard hand and heels....then Theseo starts to dart away from road to rock....100 out...but soon after that he pulls the stick again all the way to line...which i reckon as cost him victory...as theseo then paddles..

Offline allhigh

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« 2009-Mar-08, 02:45 PM Reply #23 »
 ive paddled all my life  :biggrin:

Offline seal

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« 2009-Mar-08, 03:10 PM Reply #24 »
he pushes his head down too early and takes a look to the right - cost it the margin of victory - just poor timing


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