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Melbourne Racing Selections - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Melbourne Racing Selections  (Read 169392 times)

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Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Jan-26, 07:45 AM Reply #1500 »
Looks home in this but Id assume he's in for a long prep
Mr Sneaky may be a good hope

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Jan-26, 04:40 PM Reply #1501 »
I like Mr Sneaky and think he could be High Chaparral's fastest son.

First time at WFA but I think he will make it.

Did run well only start at track and was unlucky in a good time with 57kgs.

There are storms around Melbourne so track conditions may change.

Offline gunbower

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« 2018-Jan-26, 07:31 PM Reply #1502 »
I was with you Nemisis . But no damage done each way. Pace always seems to go out of these races mid race in these events at the Valley. Thought when Buffering went things might change.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-26, 08:25 PM Reply #1503 »
Thronum continues the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig steam train. Had decent form. Had a few decent runs under Gai in Group company so a win not a complete surprise. The son of Snitzel is destined for a stud career I hear.

Not the strongest version of this race I've seen.

Brave Smash moves up like he is going to win on the home turn and fades to run 2nd last.

Geez you guys were spot on with Mr Sneaky. He is an absolute giant of a horse. Needs a bit more space than a 1200m race at Moonee Valley. Great run given they walked the first part. Like to see the horse's strength tested coming up the rise at Randwick in a race like the Doncaster.

Offline gunbower

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« 2018-Jan-26, 09:54 PM Reply #1504 »
I am thinking Doomben 10, 000 or Stradbroke.  Looks ideal prospect for either.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-27, 09:18 AM Reply #1505 »
With the MM's run and won, now the big 2yo races switch to Melbourne.

Always interesting these Blue Diamond Preludes and you'd have to go back a long way to find a year where the Blue Diamond winner didn't come through the Preludes.

Looking at the replays, in the C&G heat the best wins for mine were by #1 Run Naan down the straight last start. And the stable already has the 2018 MM. Could McEvoy win the Diamond as well?

# 3 Olivander's win was almost as impressive on debut.

Interesting that the Snowden team has sent #5 Invincible Lad down. It was well fancied in the Breeder's Plate but folded up after a tough run in front. You have to respect Pete's judgement though and I'm sure he wouldn't be sending it down unless he thought it could improve.

In the fillies, there are only 2 races that expose the form and while the 3 horses all ran nice races I don't think it is up to the Colts and Geldings form. Once again the Snowden camp has one in this time an unraced filly #10 Pure Elation. If you are having a bet in this race you should watch the impressive trial.  She is a grey by I Am Invincible out of a mare that won the Cap D'Antibes down the straight and is part of a family that has produced some nice fillies/mares over the years (Rosa's Spur, Rosarino).

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2017Oct09&VenueCode=MzA2MTgw&RaceNumber=9&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=FullReplay

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-27, 09:26 AM Reply #1506 »
Just looked at the fixed odds...Pure Elation opened $3.90. Now $2.70 favourite.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Jan-27, 11:07 AM Reply #1507 »
Just looked at the fixed odds...Pure Elation opened $3.90. Now $2.70 favourite.

Tony Brassell thought the same as me. Rider spent the first half of the race fighting the horse - should have let it slide.

Nothing left at the end and got swamped.

Got me beat why riders do that. The race is only 1000m why would you be intent on stopping the horse doing what it wants to do  :what:

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Feb-10, 12:37 PM Reply #1508 »
Thought the clash of the day was between Shoals and Tulip in Race 5.

Surprised you cover the two with about 40%.

But there is no fun in that. Will go for Tulip and maybe save with a few trifectas with Shoals winning.

In the Orr I would have backed Tosen Stardom but like a lot of others the barrier puts me off.

Hartnell at his best goes close to winning this anyway. Any late money for Hartnell will go for it.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Feb-15, 10:28 PM Reply #1509 »
Race 8 - 4:45PM Black Caviar Lightning (1000 METRES)

Times displayed in local time of Race Meeting

Of $750,000.1st $450,000, 2nd $135,000, 3rd $67,500, 4th $33,750, 5th $18,750, 6th $15,000, 7th $15,000, 8th $15,000

Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution

GROUP 1

Standard Weight for Age, Maidens at time of entry are ineligible, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Hcp Rating
1 2211x1111x REDZEL Peter & Paul Snowden Kerrin McEvoy 9 58.5kg
116
2 20x100x02x TERRAVISTA Joseph Pride Mark Zahra 4 58.5kg
113
3 1196x1401x HEY DOC Tony McEvoy Luke Currie 3 58.5kg
113
4 1x105x100x REDKIRK WARRIOR (GB) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Regan Bayliss 7 58.5kg
111
5 011x43765x ROCK MAGIC Chris Gangemi Michael Dee 1 58.5kg
106
6 3394x2531x BALL OF MUSCLE Joseph Pride Craig Williams 2 58.5kg
105
7 13x930x15x SUPIDO Michael Kent Beau Mertens 10 58.5kg
103
8 2x1449729x MISSROCK Robbie Laing Damien Oliver 6 56.5kg
104
9 1423x5112x SUPER TOO Marc Conners Stephen Baster 5 56.5kg
95
10 302x11013x FORMALITY David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Dwayne Dunn 8 53.5kg
102

Horse Flucs Win Place
1. REDZEL (9)J: K MC EVOY W: 58.5 KGS 1.75, 1.8 1.80 1.10
2. TERRAVISTA (4)J: M ZAHRA W: 58.5 KGS 9.5, 9 9.00 2.60
3. HEY DOC (3)J: L CURRIE W: 58.5 KGS 7.5, 8, 8.5, 9 9.00 2.60
4. REDKIRK WARRIOR (7)J: REGAN BAYLISS W: 58.5 KGS 10, 11 11.00 3.00
5. ROCK MAGIC (1)J: M J DEE W: 58.5 KGS 21 21.00 5.00
6. BALL OF MUSCLE (2)J: CRAIG WILLIAMS W: 58.5 KGS 16, 15 15.00 3.80
7. SUPIDO (10)J: BEAU MERTENS W: 58.5 KGS 16, 17 17.00 4.20
8. MISSROCK (6)J: D OLIVER W: 56.5 KGS 20, 19, 18 18.00 4.40
9. SUPER TOO (5)J: S BASTER W: 56.5 KGS 20, 26, 21 21.00 5.00
10. FORMALITY (8)J: D DUNN W: 53.5 KGS 10, 11, 10 10.00 2.80

(prices Ladbrokes)

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Feb-15, 10:36 PM Reply #1510 »
If you click on Peter And Paul Snowden on the Racing NSW web site, you get the results of their last 50 runners.

There have been some absolute shockers recently including two long odds on shots at Hawkesbury the other day.

Take the $1.80 at your own risk IMO.

Reckon the handicappers ratings look about right.

Super Too is one of the fastest short course horses I've seen for many years but don't know if he can match motors with this class over the 1000m.

Returned from a 12 week break with two excellent trials one being over She Will Reign. 12 starts for 5 wins - not exactly hopeless

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2018Jan15&VenueCode=Mjg5ODAw&RaceNumber=1&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=FullReplay


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Feb-16, 06:11 AM Reply #1511 »
Love to see the Terra pull out a big run

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Feb-23, 11:46 PM Reply #1512 »
The Oakleigh Plate was first run in 1884 and was won by the champion Malua. His next recorded start he won the 13f. Adelaide Cup and would go on to win the 1884 Melbourne Cup. And just to show how diverse he was he would later win a Grand National Hurdle - the only horse that will ever win an Oakleigh Plate - GN Hurdle double I can be confident of that  :)

http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/racing-talk/race-records-of-champion-racehorses/25/#msg_292157

I backed Gleaming Waters to win this race in 1981 at 66-1 and ten years later was on course to watch With Me win for the late Bruce McLachlin - best day I ever had at a racetrack as I got huge odds about the With Me - Mahaasin double.

One of the iconic races on the Australian racing calendar. You associate the race with pure speed.

Race 8 - 4:45PM Ladbrokes Oakleigh Plate (1100 METRES)

Of $500,000.1st $300,000, 2nd $90,000, 3rd $45,000, 4th $22,500, 5th $12,500, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000

Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution

GROUP 1

Handicap, Minimum Weight 51.5kg, Maidens at time of entry are ineligible, Weight Raised 1.5kg, Apprentices cannot claim
.

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 98x4408x42 FLAMBERGE Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Damian Lane 8 57kg
2 14x164x10x RUSSIAN REVOLUTION Peter & Paul Snowden Mark Zahra 11 56.5kg
3 1460x4359x SHEIDEL David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Damien Oliver 12 55kg
4 4423x654x5 HELLBENT Darren Weir Ben Allen(a) 10 54.5kg
5 50020x267x ILLUSTRIOUS LAD Peter Gelagotis Anthony Darmanin 3 54kg
6 x21x78192x FUHRYK David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Stephen Baster 6 53.5kg
7 1x1x71192x SAVANNA AMOUR Chris Meagher Ron Stewart 20 53.5kg
8 12121x11x2 SNITTY KITTY Henry Dwyer Beau Mertens 18 53.5kg
9 3120x009x1 PRUSSIAN VIXEN Michael Mehegan Dean Yendall 13 53.5kg
10 117x51600x SWORD OF LIGHT Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Ms Katelyn Mallyon 7 53.5kg
11 x32111140x BONS AWAY Aaron Purcell Ms Linda Meech 15 53.5kg
12 2x30732401 LADY ESPRIT Aaron Purcell Regan Bayliss 19 53.5kg
13 30x2214451 ROCK N GOLD Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Damien Thornton 14 53.5kg
14 72630x3735 PALAZZO PUBBLICO Matthew Smith Michael Dee 2 53.5kg
15 1x2247x12x GLENALL Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 5 53.5kg
16 1x121x10x1 SHE WILL REIGN Gary Portelli Ben Melham 17 53kg
17 110x21330x CATCHY David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Craig Williams 9 51.5kg
18 12x2316x1 BOOKER Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Ben Thompson(a) 16 51.5kg
19e 32x13347x2 QUILISTA Darren Weir
4 53.5kg
20e 125x060725 OLIVIER Darren Weir
1 53.5kg


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Feb-23, 11:51 PM Reply #1513 »
It is a straight run to the turn so if Melham doesn't hassle #16 She Will Reign and lets her do her own thing I reckon with the 53 kg she looks like a weighted certainty. The main danger probably being her fellow 3yo filly #17 Catchy and any tendency of the track not to favour horses coming down the outside.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Feb-24, 11:35 AM Reply #1514 »
Williams....errrr.....Howley quinella in the 1st race.

Wonder if Lloyd is going to have a big Autumn. Reckon he will target races like the BMW and the Sydney Cup.

Homesman looked ready to run 2nd but he was kidding on it. Looked to have a lot left in the tank and Almandin a great run under the weight.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Feb-24, 12:40 PM Reply #1515 »
Great to see the champ back and in form
Hope Williams doesn't butcher him this autumn. It's time to get his head out of the sand

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Mar-09, 09:17 AM Reply #1516 »
Race 8 - 4:35PM TAB Australian Cup (2000 METRES)

Of $1,500,000.1st $900,000, 2nd $270,000, 3rd $135,000, 4th $67,500, 5th $37,500, 6th $30,000, 7th $30,000, 8th $30,000

Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution

GROUP 1

Standard Weight for Age, Maidens at time of entry are ineligible, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 2x12290x13 HARTNELL (GB) James Cummings Craig Williams 6 59kg
2 11x21402x2 ALMANDIN (GER) Liam Howley Damien Oliver 11 59kg
3 0x24x45x0x AMBITIOUS (JPN) Anthony Freedman Damian Lane 12 59kg
4 0143150x11 GAILO CHOP (FR) Darren Weir Mark Zahra 10 59kg
5 x5x76200x4 VENTURA STORM (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Regan Bayliss 2 59kg
6 11x2203422 SUPPLY AND DEMAND Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Stephen Baster 9 59kg
7 x515867x28 HARLEM (GB) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Michael Walker 4 59kg
8 15x2114x39 LORD FANDANGO (GER) Archie Alexander Jordan Childs 1 59kg
9 446925041x THE TAJ MAHAL (IRE) Liam Howley Ben Melham 7 58.5kg
10 2x412153x1 HOMESMAN (USA) Liam Howley Michael Dee 3 58.5kg
11 x054420x22 SINGLE GAZE Nick Olive Ms Kathy O'Hara 5 57kg
12 3328x13421 DEVISE (NZ) Shaune Ritchie Chad Schofield 8 57kg

I thought each way Hartnell at the $8 in this.

Undeniable chances to Gailo Chop and Almandin, and if you rate Almandin a chance then obviously the Williams pair of The Taj Mahal and Homesman come into consideration.

Supply And Demand will determine what sort of run Gailo Chop gets. If he leads then GC will probably have to take a sit or alternatively take him on.

And of course the little mare from Canberra, Single Gaze - hard to see her not placing. Would be nice to see Kathy get her second Group 1 by winning this.

Very good race.

Where are Humidor and Boom Time  :what:

 

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Mar-09, 10:20 AM Reply #1517 »
Humidor goes to the Doncaster.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Mar-09, 12:44 PM Reply #1518 »
Humidor goes to the Doncaster.

Cheers   emthup

$15 for the Doncaster. $11 second favourite for the QE2 behind you-know-who.

I suppose the option is there to run in the $4 million QE2 a week later for the Cox Plate runner up. His first up run indicated he can get back to top form.

Boom Time went to Japan and hasn't been nommed for anything this Autumn.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Mar-23, 09:50 AM Reply #1519 »
Race 7 - 9:30PM Keogh Homes William Reid Stakes (1200 METRES)

Of $500,000.1st $300,000, 2nd $90,000, 3rd $45,000, 4th $22,500, 5th $12,500, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000

Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution

GROUP 1

Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim.

Track Name: Main Track Type: Turf Track Condition: Good 4

Field Limit: 14 + 4 EM


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 1x43765x54 ROCK MAGIC Chris Gangemi Damian Lane 5 58.5kg
2 423x654x53 HELLBENT Darren Weir Craig Williams 10 58.5kg
3 x930x15x45 SUPIDO Michael Kent Beau Mertens 6 58.5kg
4 306x13x140 THRONUM David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Mark Zahra 3 58.5kg
5 32111140x5 BONS AWAY Aaron Purcell Ms Linda Meech 2 58.5kg
6 167x5114x1 SECRET AGENDA Mick Price Damien Oliver 8 56.5kg
7 21x78192x0 FUHRYK David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Stephen Baster 9 56.5kg
8 1220x129x PARIAH Peter & Paul Snowden Blake Shinn 7 56kg
9 x121x10x10 SHE WILL REIGN Gary Portelli Ben Melham 1 54kg
10 0x21330x60 CATCHY David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Dwayne Dunn 4 54kg

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Mar-23, 10:10 AM Reply #1520 »
I dunno. Which She Will Reign is going to show up  :what:

She is a dual G1 winner, Catchy won the Diamond and Secret Agenda the Sangster.

All other horses have not won a this level.

Wouldn't be surprised if the winner came from those three.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Mar-23, 05:48 PM Reply #1521 »
SWR ran fantastic sectionals last start
Tonight will tell us where shes at if the tracks playing fair

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Apr-24, 11:01 PM Reply #1522 »
Granddukeoftuscany finally gets on to a track with some nice give in it tomorrow at Sandown in race 4
Excellent last start and had back me next time written all over it.

Good barrier and Beau Mertens aboard means the price is shrinking......$9 into $5.

Hopefully wages for the week.

Been a little nibble for it in tomorrow Race 2 at Flemington.

2nd to Amelies Star in the Lexus at 1,000,000 to 1 two starts back but the "last win in Sept 2015" part of the form is against it.

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Apr-25, 12:56 PM Reply #1523 »
Been a little nibble for it in tomorrow Race 2 at Flemington.

2nd to Amelies Star in the Lexus at 1,000,000 to 1 two starts back but the "last win in Sept 2015" part of the form is against it.
Did hear Mathew Williams, the new trainer, talking about setting him for Warrnambool because the Galileo breed generally like the mud.

Grand Duke Of Tuscany however seems to be quite at home on firm tracks.

I'm off the punt but it will be interesting to see if how he will go in the new stable.

Could he match Vic's leading trainer who took Akzar from a 80 rating to a 103 as a 7- 8 year old.?.........probably not.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Apr-25, 01:15 PM Reply #1524 »
Very weak effort by the first favourite Sherlock Holmes. Was gone before they turned to my eye.

Won't be backing him again in a hurry  :rant:

Was thinking last night of backing Gai's pair Runaway and Delos in the St Leger at $15 and $23 respectively.

Runaway is now $6.50 so missed that boat. But the fact they have gone after Runaway - he is going to get a very nice sit behind Delos and Bijou Belle if my speed map is correct.

Delos has won his last two - last start the margins were 3 L x 11 L - but it was a very weak affair. He is closely related to dual international Group 1 winner Erupt and also a Brisbane horse Pear Tart who won the Tatts Tiara. By Makfi so you'd think he might like the 2500m. Should lead.



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