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Melbourne Racing Selections - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK

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Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-01, 10:15 PM Reply #1600 »
It is not so much the race names than the track.

Have they done it in any other states?

They raced at racing.com park the other day. I have NFI where that is - without looking it up I'm guessing Pakenham or Cranbourne. Sponsorship just gone a little bit over the "line in the sand" IMO.

For some reason I like the Le Pines Funerals handicaps - have backed some good priced winners so when I think my time cometh I might contact Mr Le Pine   :biggrin:

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« 2020-Feb-06, 10:36 PM Reply #1601 »
Race 8 - 4:50PM Neds C.F. Orr Stakes (1400 METRES)

Of $500,000.1st $300,000, 2nd $90,000, 3rd $45,000, 4th $22,500, 5th $12,500, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000
Prize money contribution totalling 3% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Maidens at time of entry are ineligible, Apprentices cannot claim.

Track Name: Main Track Type: Turf Track Condition: Good 4


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Hcp Rating
1 511x42147x AVILIUS (GB) James Cummings Damian Lane 3 59kg 116
2 1x7x58x312 HEY DOC Tony & Calvin McEvoy Luke Currie 5 59kg 113
3 x53x1215x1 SCALES OF JUSTICE Lindsey Smith Dean Yendall 7 59kg 114
4 x6720x211x FIERCE IMPACT (JPN) Matthew Smith Craig Williams 8 59kg 112
5 36Px58166x KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) Chris Waller Mark Zahra 2 59kg 110
6 0x6768256x FIFTY STARS (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Jye McNeil 4 59kg 107
7 50x125040x SO SI BON David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Luke Nolen 12 59kg 104
8 0x1322x30x MIRAGE DANCER (GB) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Ben Melham 9 59kg 110
9 000x59260x NIGHTíS WATCH (NZ) Chris Waller Damien Oliver 11 59kg 105
10 1111x161x7 BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER Daniel Bowman Declan Bates 6 59kg 107
11 047100x6x4 RINGERDINGDING Anthony Freedman John Allen 1 59kg 98
12 1x2517x1 ALABAMA EXPRESS Michael Moroney Michael Dee 10 55.5kg 81

Interesting race.

First thought is that Avilius will get too far back and will run on into 2nd/3rd/4th

Hey Doc drawn to get a nice run but his Caulfield record is atrocious - 5 starts for 2 3rds for a horse who has a PSR of over 50%.

Hard to go past Memsie winner Scales Of Justice but no value there in the early markets.

Fierce Impact was a close 2nd to Epsom-Golden Eagle winner Kolding first up in the Winx Stakes last time in and that form might hold up here.

Begood Toya Mother always thereabouts and might have copped a bit of a check in the tragedy at the Valley involving Manuel.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Feb-07, 09:05 AM Reply #1602 »
If it stays dry, you may be right PP

I like both Scales of Justice & Fierce Impact

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-09, 01:15 PM Reply #1603 »

Hey Doc drawn to get a nice run but his Caulfield record is atrocious - 5 starts for 2 3rds for a horse who has a PSR of over 50%.


Hey Doc now 6 starts at Caulfield for 2 3rds.

Funny "concept" that about the Caulfield 1400m. You need to be drawn well and have performed well at the course.

Winner is now 2/2 at the track and distance. Fierce Impact looked as though he was not going to place then got a second wind. Turnbull Stks winner Kings Will Dream looks capable of winning another Group 1 this autumn.

And yet another 3YO wins a major - Yes, Yes, Yes won the Everest. Maybe we have a good crop of 3YO's. Derby winner Warning looks a very good horse to me.

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-09, 02:07 PM Reply #1604 »
Hey Doc now 6 starts at Caulfield for 2 3rds.

Funny "concept" that about the Caulfield 1400m. You need to be drawn well and have performed well at the course.

Winner is now 2/2 at the track and distance. Fierce Impact looked as though he was not going to place then got a second wind. Turnbull Stks winner Kings Will Dream looks capable of winning another Group 1 this autumn.

And yet another 3YO wins a major - Yes, Yes, Yes won the Everest. Maybe we have a good crop of 3YO's. Derby winner Warning looks a very good horse to me.
I would be completely forgiving of  Hey Doc yesterday.......that was pretty firm ground.

He had a year off after pulling up badly on the piece of concrete RVL called a good track at Flemington in the spring of 2018.

He follows a bit of a pattern like many of Victorian's older gallopers who are jarred up.......just seen too many tracks like these.

Steward's vision not up but the big boy looked a bit erratic in the straight and didn't look that comfortable.



Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-10, 08:28 AM Reply #1605 »
More damage out of The Orr

Begood Toya Mother has jarred up badly .......out of the All Star and trainer is hoping to bring the horse to the Sydney Autumn carnival ........looking for much softer ground.

Scales Of Justice has filling in both front fetlocks and his immediate racing future in some doubt.

I certainly hope they don't serve up a track like this for Catalyst.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-19, 02:04 PM Reply #1606 »
Race 8 - 4:50PM Neds Oakleigh Plate (1100 METRES)

Of $500,000.1st $300,000, 2nd $90,000, 3rd $45,000, 4th $22,500, 5th $12,500, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000
Prize money contribution totalling 3% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 50kg, Maidens at time of entry are ineligible, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 1x19x3022x BALL OF MUSCLE Joseph Pride Glyn Schofield 13 58kg
2 1100x1336x ZOUTORI Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Jamie Kah 2 56kg
3 41x121162x BIVOUAC James Cummings Craig Williams 7 55.5kg
4 1320x1487x FAATINAH David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Regan Bayliss 5 55.5kg
5 025x2255x4 BONS AWAY Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Jye McNeil 12 55kg
6 3x657x1653 CRYSTAL DREAMER Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Damian Lane 9 55kg
7 1272x229x TROPE Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 6 52.5kg
8 10x180x133 ALL TOO ROYAL Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Michael Dee 10 52kg
9 445x11360x ANJANA Lindsey Smith Zac Spain 17 52kg
10 2116x11212 BOLD STAR Gordon Richards Daniel Moor 8 52kg
11 38x17219x6 FINE DANE John Moloney Beau Mertens 11 52kg
12 x41259x111 HALVORSEN Robbie Griffiths Dean Yendall 4 52kg
13 1466x116x5 HUMMA HUMMA John McArdle William Pike 3 52kg
14 2918x92332 MYSTYKO (NZ) Trevor Rogers Dean Holland 16 52kg
15 127x11102x PIPPIE John & Chris Meagher Ms Linda Meech 14 52kg
16 61x93513x1 ANAHEED Peter & Paul Snowden Tim Clark 15 51kg
17 117x7x2 I AM IMMORTAL Anthony Freedman Damien Thornton 18 50kg
18 1130x2 FREE OF DEBT Chris Bieg Craig Newitt 19 50kg
19e 4x39071523 VAINSTREAM John Pascoe Anthony Darmanin 1 52kg

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-19, 02:24 PM Reply #1607 »
This race was first run in 1884 and won by one of the immortals of the Australian Turf, Malua.

He completed the Newmarket double, and went on to win the Melbourne Cup later that year.

He also won the Adelaide Cup and The Australian Cup and several other stakes races.

But his record is enhanced by his jumps record, winning the 1888 Grand National Hurdle over 3 miles.

Other notable winners are Wakeful (1901), Auries Star (1937 and 1939), Tontonan (1974), Placid Ark (1987) and Schillaci (1992).

Two horses that have had a considerable influence on the Australian breeding industry, Fastnet Rock and and Snitzel, won in consecutive years in 2005-06.

I think the race does not currently hold the prestige it once did. Being a handicap, horses like Black Caviar and Takeover Target avoided running in it.

I reckon they should make it WFA, and perhaps even the Everest slot offered up in the Schillaci Stks should go to the winner of a WFA Oakleigh Plate - would restore some lost prestige IMO.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-19, 02:50 PM Reply #1608 »
In this year's race I'm looking for something that comes from behind.

Ball Of Muscle will ensure a strong pace from 13 and has never been out of a place over the course and distance, winning the 2018 Schillaci and "The Heath". He carries his weight well so the 58 kg looks pretty favorable.

Bivouac will get a nice sit from 7.

Crystal Dreamer is 5:2-0-2 Track and distance and 7:3-2-1 first up. Won the 2019 Heath (Gytrash 2nd, Ball Of Muscle 3rd). Should be just a little off the pace.

I've got a question on the class of some of those down in the weights.

Humma Humma might be a run on chance if the pace is hot. Won the Alinghi over the T&D and hasn't ever carried 52 kg or lighter.

Pippie will no doubt add some pace into the race but hasn't really beaten much of note to date.

I Am Immortal is lightly raced and has won twice at the course against 2yos. Another pace horse.

Free Of Debt looks like he has to lead to be a chance.

FWIW I've taken $50 Crystal Dreamer and $26 Humma Humma each way in early markets.

Always a great betting race this one.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-19, 03:07 PM Reply #1609 »
I'm going to "pot" Bivouac - and this may be a flag to double your bet if you are keen   :lol:

4 reasons:

i) Badly weighted for a 3YO. All it's good performances have been against it's age peers at the set weights.
ii) $2.90 in the fixed odds market is very poor value IMO
iii) Wasn't that impressed with it's trial. It was OK but not as dominant as you'd think
iv) I categorize good Godolphin 2YO and 3YO horses into two classes. Those that go on with it and those that don't. Geez there are a hell of a lot that look like potential champions and end up at dispersal sales. Looking at the trial I'm wondering if we haven't already seen the best of this horse.

https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2020Jan28&VenueCode=MzMxNTUw&RaceNumber=1&MeetingCategory=Trial&VideoFileType=FullReplay



Online Jeunes

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« 2020-Feb-19, 03:13 PM Reply #1610 »
PP, I agree with the demise of the quality of the race these days but is better than the Galaxy by a bit.

It will be interesting to see if Bivouac can win. He comfortably beat Yes Yes Yes in the spring but then could not win the Manikato or the Ascot Vale. I think he is the horse to beat but needs luck.




Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-19, 03:33 PM Reply #1611 »
PP, I agree with the demise of the quality of the race these days but is better than the Galaxy by a bit.

It will be interesting to see if Bivouac can win. He comfortably beat Yes Yes Yes in the spring but then could not win the Manikato or the Ascot Vale. I think he is the horse to beat but needs luck.

Not so sure about The Galaxy comparison.

The last three Galaxy's were won by Nature Strip (winner of two other G1's), In Her Time (Lightning Stakes winner) and Russian Revolution (who won the Oakleigh Plate)

The last three Oakleigh's have been won by Booker (who???), Russian Revolution and Sheidel. Flamerge and Shamal Wind before that.

Since Lankan Rupee in 2014, the only winner to win a subsequent Group 1 was Flamberge (William Reid).

Some good winners before that but as I said just in recent years the existence of the race as a handicap is impacting on class. Connections of good horses have many WFA options.

In fact one could argue that one of the reasons for the deterioration is local competition, and especially the decision to move the William Reid to a March date. When everybody's favourite horse Bomber Bill won the race in 2001, it was known as the Australia Stakes and was run on Jan 25th.

The William Reid/Australia Stks (G1 version) race was won by Black Caviar (twice), Apache Cat (twice) and Sunlight last year. That quality of sprinter avoids the Oakleigh Plate these days.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2020-Feb-19, 05:46 PM Reply #1612 »
Iím a huge Bivouac fan but at the weights and the pace thatís likely, surely Trope is a huge chance

Online Jeunes

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« 2020-Feb-19, 06:04 PM Reply #1613 »
Below is a history of Galaxy winners plus Oakleigh plate winners. I donít think the quality is there. I chucked in the Goodwood for fun. It is interesting to see the quality of some of the winners.

https://www.progroupracing.com.au/group-races/australian-turf-club/the-galaxy

https://www.progroupracing.com.au/group-races/melbourne-racing-club/oakleigh-plate

https://www.progroupracing.com.au/group-races/south-australian-jockey-club/goodwood


Online Gintara

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« 2020-Feb-19, 08:52 PM Reply #1614 »
I'm a Bivouac fan but can't take those odds with that weight.

At first glance I'm warming to Bold Star down in the weights to be storming over the top of a hot speed.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-20, 01:46 AM Reply #1615 »
Below is a history of Galaxy winners plus Oakleigh plate winners. I donít think the quality is there. I chucked in the Goodwood for fun. It is interesting to see the quality of some of the winners.

https://www.progroupracing.com.au/group-races/australian-turf-club/the-galaxy

https://www.progroupracing.com.au/group-races/melbourne-racing-club/oakleigh-plate

https://www.progroupracing.com.au/group-races/south-australian-jockey-club/goodwood

Comparisons aside, I think there is a real opportunity for the MRC and the Oakleigh Plate.

Keep it as the Oakleigh Plate but boost the prizemoney, make it WFA over 1200m and chuck in their very valuable asset - a ticket into the Everest.

Bingo Bango. You go from having the #4 Melbourne Summer/Autumn sprint to having the #1. Horses that would normally run in the Newmarket and William Reid would now switch to the Plate.

The fact that the winner goes to the Everest would get it into the mainstream media so the marketing takes care of itself. As it stands the Oakleigh Plate barely registers on the interest scale.

Write into the T&C that if the winner cannot make it to the start of the Everest then the club reserves the right to select another horse.

I think this leverages their Everest slot better than the race one week before.

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-20, 10:10 AM Reply #1616 »
Comparisons aside, I think there is a real opportunity for the MRC and the Oakleigh Plate.

Keep it as the Oakleigh Plate but boost the prizemoney, make it WFA over 1200m and chuck in their very valuable asset - a ticket into the Everest.

Bingo Bango. You go from having the #4 Melbourne Summer/Autumn sprint to having the #1. Horses that would normally run in the Newmarket and William Reid would now switch to the Plate.

The fact that the winner goes to the Everest would get it into the mainstream media so the marketing takes care of itself. As it stands the Oakleigh Plate barely registers on the interest scale.

Write into the T&C that if the winner cannot make it to the start of the Everest then the club reserves the right to select another horse.

I think this leverages their Everest slot better than the race one week before.
Why change the race conditions when it has achieved something quite rare?......a capacity field.......obviously appeals to a lot of trainers

Last week's WFA Lightning attracted 7 runners and was worth $250k more.

There just isn't that many WFA horses around and G Richards explanation as to why his gun sprinter Gytrash has been missing should be listened to.

Any prizemoney boost would be highly unlikely in this environment....racing is under tremendous pressure.

As far as using this race as some sort of promotion for The Everest......that's a joke?..... surely!

I noted you have put money into the  early market in a race of ' little interest' before the track conditions have been declared.......gamer than me but I wish you good luck.


« Last Edit: 2020-Feb-20, 11:41 AM by nemisis »

Online fours

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« 2020-Feb-21, 01:45 PM Reply #1617 »
Weight?

How can you guys worry about weight for Bivouac given that :-

1) 1100m only
2)  only got 55.5kg in the first place
3) performed rather well with more than that anyway in the past
4) advantaged by soft rack

Fours

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-22, 02:07 AM Reply #1618 »

I noted you have put money into the  early market in a race of ' little interest' before the track conditions have been declared.......gamer than me but I wish you good luck.

Crystal Dreamer doesn't mind it a bit wet (it is Soft 5 at the moment).

Into $41.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-22, 02:11 AM Reply #1619 »
Race 6 - 3:30PM PFD Food Services Futurity Stakes (1400 METRES)

Of $500,000.1st $300,000, 2nd $90,000, 3rd $45,000, 4th $22,500, 5th $12,500, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000
Prize money contribution totalling 3% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim.



No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 111x5111x4 KOLDING (NZ) Chris Waller Glen Boss 5 59kg
2 870x80129x BLACK HEART BART Lindsey Smith Brad Rawiller 8 59kg
3 5040189x32 STREETS OF AVALON Shane Nichols Ben Melham 7 59kg
4 1132x231x7 WILD PLANET Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 1 59kg
5 1423x53353 KAZIO Colin Little Brett Prebble 6 59kg
6 14083x100x CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Damien Oliver 2 58.5kg
7 11x411112x MELODY BELLE (NZ) Jamie Richards Opie Bosson 3 57kg
8 113x1651x1 SUPER SETH Anthony Freedman Mark Zahra 4 55.5kg

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-22, 02:18 AM Reply #1620 »
The Futurity looks a fascinating 3 way contest - I cannot see anything winning outside the top 3 in the market, and all 3 have wet form.

Kolding, Melody Belle and Super Seth will battle it out and wouldn't be surprised to see any of them win.

Just have a feeling that Kolding has a class edge, balanced by the fact he might not yet be 100% fit and no Caulfield experience.

Melody Belle has a Sunline type win strike rate and Super Seth knocked over Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Guineas and won first up at this track.

All of them single figures in the ASM market behind the two "boom" 3yos.

Offline nemisis

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« 2020-Feb-22, 01:36 PM Reply #1621 »
RVL's 'new' track policy ........."tracks must be prepared with give.......in the interests of horse welfare " is not worth the paper it's written on.

Not a hint of moisture in the Caulfield track at the start of the day and all anyone can do is wish the horses .....safe travel.

Early days but doesn't even look like a fair track.

Online fours

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« 2020-Feb-22, 03:11 PM Reply #1622 »
PP7,

Don't give up your day job!

Fours
ps replay of last weeks effort in regards to target races and what was or was not fully fit.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2020-Feb-22, 03:44 PM Reply #1623 »
PP7,

Don't give up your day job!


Well he did have 2nd & 3rd.

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Feb-22, 04:10 PM Reply #1624 »
PP7,

Don't give up your day job!

Fours
ps replay of last weeks effort in regards to target races and what was or was not fully fit.

Crystal Dreamer $10 place.

Weight?

How can you guys worry about weight for Bivouac given that :-

1) 1100m only
2)  only got 55.5kg in the first place
3) performed rather well with more than that anyway in the past
4) advantaged by soft rack

Fours

Fours,

Don't give up your day job!

PP7


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