Newby Suggestion - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

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Newby Suggestion - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK

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Offline maccamax

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O.P. « 2009-Feb-04, 08:03 PM »
Hi ...thank you for having me ....with over 60 years of being a racing man ....raced one we bred by an accident out of a mare we bought for $200 ....only to see her produce prolific winner Seargeant Sam and later a blacktype winner and placing , plus other wins on 3 main Sydney courses......I got out due to what I felt was owners being cannon fodder for tipping Jockeys and trainers ....
 That said , many a step by step statement as to everyones views on how to make racing pay.
I do well......learnt the tough way .......so if we ask the questions , I'm sure the people on the forum will do their best to provide an opinion [ everyone is entitled to one ]............So I pose the first question ???.
WHY does 95% of punters lose.......and what are you doing about it ? .....if you are one of them .
With todays opportunities by way of Betfair  type exchanges  and some competition to yesteryears Pirates that losing percentage SHOULD NOT BE ...... lets see what we can do about it .

Offline Da Judge

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« 2009-Feb-04, 08:20 PM Reply #1 »
think its nearer to 99% that lose macca,but instead of asking losers to tell you why they lose,wouldn't it be better to tell them how you win?

Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Feb-04, 08:41 PM Reply #2 »
What surprises me macca is the fact you or I can win......there is still value there to be had. I am working toward vacuuming up as much of it as my greedy little mind can manage........

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2009-Feb-04, 08:45 PM Reply #3 »
I lose because of a lack of discipline not judgement.

I also don't have the funds to punt with an effective strategy so when i build a small bank i usually end up chasing a bigger win. If I lose my small bank, it doesn't matter

Also, trying to not have an opinion on every race is hard so I guess that comes to a lack of strategy as well.

How many times have we had $20 on our best best because it's the first race of the day and end up having $50 on something late in the day :sad:

Offline maccamax

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:10 PM Reply #4 »
95% is the accepted figure.
Your  reversal suggestion would make make me a know all ..I did put 3 lays on today [all got beat. 2 at about $.4.50 ...1 at 10/1 ] ....Like I said = step by step=
First i would suggest ..lack of self control....

Offline maccamax

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:21 PM Reply #5 »
yes yes yes ...not betting to a bank........if somone can increase their bank by 3% a day ..
Bank doubles in 24 days ......place tote gem....
 Ask yourself ....How much can I afford to lose a week for my racing interest/entertainment.
$40.....???.......thats $2000 in a year if you can break even ....But .....Small fish grow to sharks quicker than you think .......Try the 24 day plan for a start .....double it but keep putting your winnings aside AND the $40 dollars as you build ......Never forget ....2 good place tote bets on raceday [say $20] are better than 40 x $1 hits at a trifecta or other miracle .

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:24 PM Reply #6 »
I'm in Wily's boat, trying to get rich quick.
The other week I decided to get on Betfair and lay dogs that couldn't run a place let alone win and managed 22 from 23.
It didn't matter what price, I was just aiming to win $15 per race.
It worked but i've stopped doing it for some unknown reason.
I noted your 3 lays today macca and laid Zeta, thanks.
I've made up my mind to 'lay only' on Betfair from here on.

Offline Hamish Crayfish

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:43 PM Reply #7 »
Interesting, OL, that you have decided to "lay only" on Betfair. Do you plan to "Back" through another outlet? If so it would be strange if you did not jump on Betfair "overs" when they arose.

Offline Da Judge

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:50 PM Reply #8 »
in essence you backed a 1.50 winner,thats if you went all up your lays,and you use that to show your ability,thats impressive

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:50 PM Reply #9 »
Hamish, i've been known to go against my plans before, of course I will 'back' if something I like is overs, however if I like something, i'd prefer to lay 2 or 3 others in the race which gives mine or the rest of the field a chance of beating them.

Offline Da Judge

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:54 PM Reply #10 »
more chance of collecting larsy,but thats reflected in your potential return

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Feb-04, 09:58 PM Reply #11 »
80% of my investments are on sport these days

Offline arakaan

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« 2009-Feb-04, 10:02 PM Reply #12 »
It didn't matter what price, I was just aiming to win $15 per race.

OL and anyone else laying on betfair,

laying to win a certain amount is the wrong way to do it. You should have a total lay risk amount(say $100/$200, a % of  your bank, whatever) and lay to that figure whether your laying a 2's on shot or a 20/1 shot.
 ;)
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-04, 10:04 PM by arakaan »

Offline Hamish Crayfish

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« 2009-Feb-04, 10:07 PM Reply #13 »
All lays are different to me. Some are just incredible unders but are likely winners. Others are things that IMO just can't win and I tend to hit them harder. Having % of funds might suit some, but not this little black lamb !

Offline Wenona

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« 2009-Feb-04, 10:53 PM Reply #14 »
OL and anyone else laying on betfair,

laying to win a certain amount is the wrong way to do it. You should have a total lay risk amount(say $100/$200, a % of  your bank, whatever) and lay to that figure whether your laying a 2's on shot or a 20/1 shot.


I agree.

For those interested I have attached a worksheet that calculates the optimal amount of your bank to risk and the stake required from the bettor for you to have that risk, based on:

i) The price you lay the horse
ii) What the horses true price should be (ie it's true prob of winning n a 100% market)
iii) Your Betfair commission
iv) Bank size

The calculation is the 'Kelly' figure.

With all horse betting, as true probabilities are not precisely calculable, it is probably best to use a proportion of the Kelly figure. e.g. 50%

Another way is to assume a standard conservative edge across all your lays and risk the same percentage on each bet.

I do the latter and risk around 12% of my bank with each lay.















[attachment deleted by admin]

Offline Da Judge

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:06 PM Reply #15 »
the problem with kelly on horse racing is the inaccuracy of ones pricing,hence the use by some of half kelly or even a lesser %,kelly is an exact formula for calculating your optimal stake on a given event,dependent on the odds available and the true odds of such an event occurring,it works perfectly in card counting on blackjack,the only slight disparity is by the counter,in calculating the true odds,because of them not being able to exactly determine the amount of cards left in the shoe,but that is only a miniscule %,so the counter will finish in front over the long haul,but in horse racing,pricing up a race,one doesn't have all the variables to get the pricing precise enough to use kelly efficiently,the ones that can get it close enough,will use full kelly

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:16 PM Reply #16 »
I think of Kelly and think of the gorgeous blonde girl across the road whenst growing up.   :thumbsup:

What is Kelly ?

Offline Wenona

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:18 PM Reply #17 »
I agree I would never use the full kelly figure on horse racing.

I don't have a problem using a percentage of it though. You're basically decreasing your risk of ruin by building in a margin of error for those runners you may have under priced in your market.

When betting to win, I would use a percentage of Kelly approach but also place an upper percentage limit on the bet size.

I'd suggest people laying horses do that as well if they are going to use the proportion of kelly method. Everyone who prices horse races will have races were they have grossly over priced a winner. These instances can really hurt you using a kelly approach. Placing an upper limit of say 25% of your bank would be a sensible thing to do I think.


Offline Wenona

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:24 PM Reply #18 »
If you know the true probability of an event happening and you also know you can bet on that event happening at a fixed price which represents value (positive expected value) .........  the kelly criteria is a formula that gives you an optimal bet size that will maximise your bank in the long run while minimising your risk of going broke.
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-04, 11:26 PM by Wenona »

Offline Da Judge

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:28 PM Reply #19 »
when im certain i have priced a runner correctly,i use full kelly,that would be about once or twice a fortnight,i feel that the less certain you are,you should disregard kelly in that race/s altogether

Offline maccamax

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« 2009-Feb-05, 12:46 AM Reply #20 »
glad you got a dollar out of the lays .....The thread seems to be taking a turn left with "kelly"
Wonder how many buy a Specialist newspaper like Sportsman ...If you don't you can' t cover the variables
If we  cant give a logical reason why we fancy something then we are guessing .....How many take notice of a horses win and place percentage as published ...[ me , none } Zipping has started fav 13 times won 10 2nd twice ...he has 10 wins from 17 , as Maldivian has 5 wins from 6 ..IN THEIR distance range ..Thats what you need to assess.
 When has a horse peaked ....are they on the up......Can they meet the races requirements ...e g Turffontein in NZ Telegraph recently....Obvious several would carve it out in 1.8.5 thereabouts .....poor old TURF wouldnt go that fast down a well at 1200.....great lay .......needs further
 track maps ...speed maps ....my first chore Raceday.....Observe early races for any bias ..Know your tracks .I will put a few i will lay tomorrow , be assured they have been fully researched ... some still win aye ,good luck with them .
10 yesterday all lost.
February 05
  IRISH CROWN BUNBURY R4 No.3 (1675m)
  NEW FAITH BUNBURY R5 No.5 (1675m)
  FINALLY CHINA BUNBURY R7 No.2 (1200m)
  REGAL INSTINCT HAWKESBURY R8 No.4 (1600m)
  PASSION OF FIRE SEYMOUR R4 No.5 (1300m)
  CATCORP SEYMOUR R7 No.6 (1300m)
  DREAM AND EXCEL SEYMOUR R8 No.7 (1100m)

Offline allhigh

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« 2009-Feb-05, 05:37 AM Reply #21 »
well done with the lays, pal.........
 its a complex caper the punt.
 unfortunately ive got too much on my plate at present,
 without delving too deeply.

Offline maccamax

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« 2009-Feb-05, 08:53 AM Reply #22 »
Hi Judge ....We can't price near to right for the fact we have very inconsistent racing .[esp.NSW}
Gai just had 3 flops by hyped horses to her "shock Horror"... But the markets knew.
Try and get a Bart fav up...I have no time for his race stats ...He should have been the statue. .....I have contacted the STC recently 5 times about a  Hotty fav that run unplaced and Stewards opened a inquiry [ it blew like a gale ].....A real dirty one ...Huge plunge on the winner which connections disowned. ..My question is where has the inquiry gone .don't they have a money trail.....They don't respond ...RNSW has destroyed itself ...So many of us betting offshore .
 You have to watch the market moves ...must be with Betfair as thats the future trend of racing, as racing  lose billions to Sports betting and offshore ......
Watch the racecourse sales and start some drastic steps in their dying efforts...
 Who is comfortable with the Fine Cotton man voicing an opinion on improving racing
 Who is comfortable with leading trainers having leading bookmaker at their dinner tabless.
Bookmakers have reached their use by date .......The more desperate our racing owners and trainers get , the more they will turn to the un acceptable .
 We have to be as smart as them or perish......when you see horses uneasy ...You get that way too.
 The last Bart stats i did were ......33 winners ...3 under 5/2 ......then it was wow ..7 10 15 20 40 60 ..what a joke
4 th on the money earners .....47th on the winner list....He is probably still paying off his big debt. He once took the knock......
Compare him with the ever reliable Portelli.....
Bart [ last to first i named him years ago] is getting em qualified then keep em in light ...Thats how you win and place in over 20 cups .......Robin Hood was an altar boy.

Offline Da Judge

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« 2009-Feb-05, 09:09 AM Reply #23 »
the ever reliable portelli,hmm,you don't think he goes in streaks?funny about 7 or so, years ago,maybe longer, he had a booming run,we all knew because he was getting winner after winner,what we didn't know is why,he changed VETS is why,thats right,and it was an ex waterhouse vet as well,guess what happened when the vet left,good guess portellis strike rate left with it,now hes hot again,WONDER WHY?

Offline maccamax

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« 2009-Feb-05, 09:53 AM Reply #24 »
He is an up and comer , who 20 years ago was handling a few breaking in jobs and his Mum hobby trained a couple .
Out the back of Orange NSW.....He is Hot again as you term it ...A real from rags to  riches story.
When he has one with a chance , you know it and it runs true to form ...never been different .
If you are suggesting Vet malpractice , forget it ....horses are forever under vet care by their frail anatomy
 I used Gary as an example because he has a far better record than Bart Cummings in the % stats .
 I note you made no comment on Robbie and Tom being Leading Bookmakers .....Are you comfortable with that .
Obviously the world isn't ......Thats why we have lost credability and note ......Every day more and more offshore meeting being covered ....Thats where we will take our dollar because they try like hell to keep it honest ....ask Chris Munce ......CEO RNSW Mr. V'landy says tipping isnt illegal ...Tipping isn't about a tip on a winner ...its about tips on losers too ....If thats his rules , ok I accept that .........But my betting dollars are overseas.


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