Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => Racing Talk => Topic started by: fours on 2021-Feb-17, 09:09 AM

Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-17, 09:09 AM
Most of the racing literature will tell you that the longer the price the more you lose in the long term.

This is true for anyone stupid enough to back all of them at all prices.

Another fault in that outlook is that WIN bet returns only appear to be the measuring tool. Only occasionally do you see place returns also being considered.

And never once have I seen 4th place for first fours being considered. NOT ONCE!

The closest I have seen to 4th being considered was by a real innovator in Mark Read who provided stats for career starts which included 4th place whereas virtually all other sites only give stats to 3rd place. Without going into the whys I will merely state for some horse profiles such is very usefull information. BUT forget the averages which mislead.

So when it suits me I will provide tips on horses at a minimum $80 be it fixed or pari and tell you straight up I expect a woeful strike rate for the win and place and even 4th. That does not mean a profit cannot be shown.

So bets will be for a nominal total of $20 each being $13.00 the place and 2 $3.50 bets for 4th being first fours of course.

Going to be creative with the first fours in that there will be basic tickets of abc/f/f/x and f/abc/f/x where

x is the selection f is field and a b and c are not done by odds or the market but are the 3 best place % from their last 50 rides jockeys for the venue. Must have 50 rides to qualify and the Racing and Sports order as listed will be used. IF I need to limit selections in BIG fields I will say so then.

Fours
ps Thought it was time for something a little different for the forum - maybe the 300 plus lurkers I regularly see could provide something themselves....

Addendum :-  when RacingandSports page not avavilable just use the 3 favs for the abc selections. From time to time it simply does not work - like right now
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-17, 10:27 AM
Normally I would not do bets at this time but just before the jump but to kick things off and give an example of the jockey work out the first bet is at Sandown race 6 on Torgersen currently fixed 81 and pari 155. We will accept the best win and place return just before the jump regardless this one time regardless of prices.

The top 3 jockeys by place order are Yendall Zahra Currie but we have to go further down the list as 2 of those are not in the race. We end up with Zahra Kah and Stackhouse mounts being 4, 3 and 7 as our abc horses.

Why Torgersen - performs much better 2nd up then first up and down in grade to 78 compared to last preps listed company when 1.1L from the winner. May well be a broken down crock but is it worth finding out at 80/1? You will see many horses with similar form profiles starting at a quarter the odds and less.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: usernametaken2 on 2021-Feb-17, 11:11 AM
A lurker no more 4's  :beer:
Top stuff, this is what the forum should be about. Not that I will be able to contribute much.
Hope it goes well.  :thumbsup:
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-17, 05:35 PM
Well Torgersen competitive until the turn then gapped by the fit and ready contenders this time which will be the normal result..... until it is not!

So the question becomes can one of these fill a place at better than 1 in 20 which was todays place return approximately.

Selections before r5 will be rare on any card.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Feb-17, 06:51 PM
Were you aware of the bandaged front legs on Torgersen, fours?
Obviously this fellow has had a tendon injury!

Ugly side of racing for mine.......4 years plus at Wallers and $582K in the bank .......the rising 9yr old deserves a bit better.  :sad:
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-17, 07:12 PM
nemisis,

I make use of NIL inside knoweldge so was not aware.

Torgersen ran no worse than I expect the majority of mine to run here bandages or not..

Its the 1 to 3 that surprise the market per 20 picks hopefully that this approach depends upon to show a profit.

My skill or lack there of is the main determinant - the mathematics is sound and the potential upside far more than taking on the bookie over favourites.

Fours
ps there will be some young horse picks
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: ratsack on 2021-Feb-17, 07:26 PM
Good luck , i will follow with interest .
Last comment from me 
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-17, 08:04 PM

The kennel-klub-kids have promoted similar nonsense before


............ knowing it is nonsense ................. take no notice of it ................. it is not 'new thinking'..................it is plain nonsense!
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-17, 08:15 PM
Peter,

Every bet type made a profit last time around - so what is the name I am not calling you?

You seem determined to keep earning it and remember that was done in field sizes you said such was impossible to do.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-17, 08:44 PM
Hong Kong r1 11 Ourgoldenrules
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-18, 01:37 PM
Ourgoldenrules was not disgraced finishing 6th. In general pools of only 6 grand or so should be left alone with this approach as the max dividend for that venue would have been in the vicinity of $10,000. We had Teetan 2nd so the return would have been in the vicinity of 3.5/270 x 10,000 or $129.63. With 2 jockeys in the quin spot double that.

Fours

Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-19, 08:12 PM
Canterbury r8 #17 Ladies' Gem

Fours
126 and 16 fixed it is
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 10:11 AM
Hmmm Ladies' Gem was not up to the class - jockey not at fault at all.

Today I am going early as I think the price is just wrong early and may disappear later with Too Close The Sun at $81 and $12 fixed which is up to the class no question and a very consistant horse with an 83% place strike rate and most of them in the quin spots.

So MR6 #5 today and the abc jockeys are Pike Kah and Nolen      a little different to most lists people would make..... but maybe thats why we can profit.

Fours
this is what I would call a strong case rather than a hail mary pass. No doubt the likes of nemisis will say i am mad and the target is down the road ( All Star Mile ) but they might be forgetting 4th will do me just fine.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Feb-20, 10:49 AM
Fours, don't get strung up by a comment or two I might make. ....."likes of me":what:

I like a roughie as much as anyone!
Torgersen's bandaged front legs on a firm track after over a year off ????....no thanks.

I used yesterday's boost on Chapada.....got $26.
Five 1st up starts for 1 placing hardly looks a "good" bet .....but then take a closer look.
He's finished in front of most of his opposition before on a firm track.
No doubt in my mind he will be finishing off very strongly......will he make it into a dividend bearing position???? :shrug:.....won't be far away!

Moroney's are no doubt trying to get him in to The Australian Cup in a couple of weeks......could just be a warm up today although there is enough interest in him for my liking!
Very different looking WFA race.
Little saver on my old fav......Steel Prince and a bit of patience required!
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Feb-20, 12:12 PM
I struggle to back Moroney's horses as I find them so inconsistent and tend to spike in form  :shrug:

It does lead to some bigger divvi's because of that I guess but I tend to go the other way, bet around that stable and cope it when one gets you.  :chin:
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 01:08 PM
SR3 #4 Miss Sentimental took the fixed 126 and 14

You know this trainer gets them ready when you might not think they are...

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 01:12 PM
Not far away at all

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 02:50 PM
Yarra Valley R6 #10 Keep The Magic

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 03:13 PM
MR7 #6 Abseiler

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 03:25 PM
AR6 #8 Plaisir

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 03:33 PM
Hmmmm close up 5th

SR7 #12 Easy Campese 151 and 14 fixed

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 03:42 PM
BR6 #10 Arrow Express

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 03:55 PM
$22.65 ff dividend in prior race

MR8 #How Womantic and worry about the ff if it gets up due to huge field

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 04:04 PM
AR8 #8 Reinvigorate.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 04:13 PM
Another one not disgraced at all given the price

Soft track may help SR 8 #5 Spending To Win

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 04:38 PM
Wagga R8 #10 Sizzling Cat

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 04:47 PM
Potential - I decided wrongly prior race between sizzling cat and Takissacod but the 37 grand first four for 3rd shows you the potential

Korodon if long enough  . ar9 #9

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 05:10 PM
Newcastle r8 #14 Trophies Galore 81 and 14 fixed grabbed

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 05:16 PM
For a moment it looked like the $81 was in the bag but had to settle for a head second $14.00

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 05:31 PM
WR6 #7 Pretentious Chant 201 and 24 taken fixed

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-20, 05:47 PM

.........a time for rethinking?

                                                       Thought it was time for something a little different for the forum
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 05:58 PM
Peter,

Something you seem totally unable to do  - so suggest you leave it alone.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 06:49 PM
WR8 #1 Touch Of Silver

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-20, 07:21 PM


.
..................... the premise of this thread is an exercise in 'insanity' ........... this will reveall itself .............the 'talk' will grind to a halt.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 07:41 PM
Peter,

I have already done profitbaly what you say is impossible several times over....

Dogs show the ability to learn.....

Why cant you?

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-20, 11:19 PM
Think I will call it quits there as have shown enough of the ins and outs of what is possible with culling from the 80/1 plus only horses severely.

Trophies Galore $14.00 the place is all we got from 18 picks but of course the close $81 win foregone could have changed things dramatically. So slight changes in strike rate make a huge difference to profitability here where they make virtually no difference when chasing favourites....

Shorties predominating in the only first four dividend made for disappointing returns today but Wagga race 8 shows the potential with a 37 grand first four for 3rd which the abc jockeys would have delivered had we covered 3rd with it and also not gone with the wrong horse.

So the finsihing distribution of horses that ran well in the 80/1 plus bracket was a lone 2nd with the rest struggling to make make fourth but not far off with around half  along way back. Other days a few more might make 3rd or fourth as the variance plays out.

A better way to tackle them maybe $1 win plus
$1 field/x exacta and
$1 place or $3 per selection. 

The win bet can be anywhere you like - as Betfair may offer $300 instead of only $100,  the Trophies Galore exacta paid $1,316.00 on the NSW tote so a humble buck returned $131.60 for it and there was the lone $14 place collect. In this way on the 18 actual selections made the $54 out laid would return $145.60 

First fours for 4th are a lot harder to cover efficiently and you are not paying me enough to cover that.

Fours
ps the Trophies Galore trifecta paid $26 grand in NSW and once you had the 80/1 pop getting it was not so hard at all - paid a lot less elsewhere so care as to where you bet matters. Make the most of your hard work.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-21, 08:19 PM


................... Think I will call it quits

                             .... there is no clamour not to

                                        .............. how many Victorians lost how much on this 'dare to be different' nonsense?
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: ratsack on 2021-Feb-21, 08:29 PM
less than on Pokies , with no chance of winning

i'll stick with this thanks
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-21, 08:43 PM



Slower-death racing v. quicker death pokies.


 ...... the disturbing reality is that ..... considering the time wasted on irrelevant 'form' study ............ a quicker trip to the cleaners at the pokies  is sensibly preferable to wasting Friday and Saturday ....... or any other day...............on a lost cause, almost sure to lose 100% of bets placed.

...... as the racing game is run in Victoria ................. the risk of loss on the pokies is less than the risk of loss on racing bets.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Feb-21, 10:26 PM


a quicker trip to the cleaners at the pokies  is sensibly preferable to wasting Friday and Saturday ....... or any other day...............on a lost cause, almost sure to lose 100% of bets placed.

.

You really have lost it now when you write such nonsense. Pokies FFS?
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-21, 11:19 PM
Peter,

I try to leave you alone but you insist on being the idiot.

I mentioned 3 weeks running that Shinn's rides on horses at very long prices should always be carefully looked at while he was being overlooked in Honk Kong to a large degree. You can't claim you have not been told before the race as this time it is in fact 3 times before the day of the race plus you have been given a betting approach to try.

His ride on Stoic at 217/1 into 4th in the last race today is yet another example and given the horses stats at the distance were 3 placings from 4 attempts and had also always placed 3rd up from a spell it was a prime candidate for this method. The suggested first four approach got the $15,376.80 on its ear and was unlucky not to get it twice given that Zac Purton was 3rd.

Peter - ONLY IDIOTS NEED TIPS FROM OTHERS BEFORE THE RACE to lose money anyway.

When you put some effort in and do the form yourself maybe then you can turn horses at even greater than 200/1 into profitbale conveyances for you when they meet your criteria.

Consider yourself well and truly put in your place.

Fours
If I hear from more than 20 lurkers that never post I will consider putting up something like this with roughies but maybe starting at 40/1 minimum. Really I would like to see more lurkers posting their own things and also suggesting improvements to anything I mention here. Yes I can provide improvements to the above but wanted to give others a chance to do so first. eg $1 quinella the field and $1 field field x trifecta costs only $2 per roughy and will return a higher dividend than a place bet often..... in the long term.... depends on a few things.

Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-22, 08:49 AM
I backed a winner on Saturday.
It opened at $21 and Mair would have scratched it
It was backed into $4 :clap2:

What an idiot Mair is. A failed administrator in the past you’d think he would realise what a goose he is and shut the F up.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Feb-22, 10:58 AM
Can't see how this can ever work on a consistent basis, fours.
Your later Sat arvo work had drunken sailor written all over it.

Quinellas, exactas, e/w or first 4's.....all this small percentage betting can add up to heavy losses.
All very well a roughie getting in somewhere but then you still have to combine all of the others.....it's "do your head in stuff"

You look to me that you are not looking to find the best horse in the field, relative to the track conditions or any biases on the day.
Hanging your hat on Too Close The Sun at WFA is not the smartest thing to do.
Consistent horse?....yes, but up against a couple of the countries top mares!
Much safer option in WFA racing is trust the handicap ratings.....just a bit sad we live in a world of the dopers.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-22, 11:03 AM
nemisis,

You have to take your win bet mentality off to understand the approach.

Fourth is perfectly fine to make money as per Shinn's $218.00 fourth. Can be many many lemgths behind the best 3 horses in the race and the money paid buys the same thing as the 10 length winner at $1.50.

Fours
ps drunken sailor - again you have it wrong - I am merely offering a variety of approaches for people to consider. No one method is the best approach for all circumsatnces. My own betting is different to anything offered here. jfc is not totally stupid - you dont give away the gold ..... but I dont mind offering crumbs. My crumbs may welle xceed what others consider gold - its all relative.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-22, 11:21 AM
Accidents of the race.......

People that back roughies strongly benefit from them whereas short favourite backers can go from profitable to losing on just a few instances.

Horses are not machines and we recently saw Melody Belle at $1.30 the win quote ( the best horse by far in its race ) fail to place or even run fourth. The small field first four paid >$55,000.00 with the roughy running 3rd. Too hard to get regardless for many? So I gave alternatives to consider as per :-

$1 place on the roughy pays only $12.70 wheres my suggestion to consider field field roughy trifecta for 3rd returns $59.92 for those that find the first fours too tough and a head ache. If you want to divide by 3 to compare you were still better off than a place bet with $19.97. Such wont always be the case.

You dont need me to tell you the strike rate for the win spot will be woefull..... backing extreme roughies .... but this mentality may stop you making money elsewhere.... like 3rd and fourth.

Like any other form of betting how well you do things matters.

Fours
ps So the trainer, or the jockey, or a stablehand make the fav run dead or lose in some way - as the roughy backer you are laughing rather than crying. Just one example of how you can benefit without inside knoweldge .... by being braver than most.

Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Feb-22, 11:45 AM
If you are only offering "crumbs" as you call it fours, then I would say.....What's the point?
Make a case for a roughie, by all means......but you need to "make the case".

Melody Belle is a good example of the "conditions" on the day.
Would I back her on a bone dry Waikato track over 2000M at short odds?.....not on your Nellie.

Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-22, 12:05 PM
nemisis,

I can make a case for ALL of the roughies tipped. That is why they were tipped.

It is important that you focus on the points I am making. They are about opportunites to profit that many are over looking now TOTALLY. Shinn has demonstrated the truth in what I am saying 4 weeks in a row now - it is no fluke by him or me.

Nemisis you are half way there in pointing out seeing certain conditions when a short fav may be suspect...... Don't stop there ----- take this much further.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Feb-22, 12:55 PM
I used to bet against Kingston Town over a trip just because he was by Bletchingly.....I've learned a bit......I had to!

I would say no-one would follow any of your "tips".....there needs to be an explanation of "why"
Midterm on a hard track or Torgersen with his bandaged tendons just makes no sense!
Do you realise how serious a tendon injury is for a racehorse?....it was hard to miss your "competitive early" comment :what:

I have a 24 hr small limit on my account and never keep more than $100 there.....it's deliberate because it takes the gung-ho away from me.
I would recommend it.....it's a crook caper, racing in this country and doesn't deserve to have serious money thrown at it.

You need to post a ticket occasionally fours......for your credibility!
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-22, 02:48 PM
What are you on about?

All selections were before the race and following Shinn on out and out roughies mentioned 3 times previously.

You are making no sense.

People have to do some work and produce their own selections - I am just providing food for thought and discussion.

Have won more than one comp with roughies so no need to prove anything to anybody if that is your gist.

Fours
ps No I did not know about the tendon issue but it is a moot point - always going to get >70% wrong here..... The thread is about what you can do with the ones that succeed. Have to lose your favourite backing, all boxes ticked, short priced high strike rate mentality. Another way to put it is a 100% win strike rate on $2 favs, which you cannot do, only makes 100% POT. I only need a 2% win strike rate to equal that...... The potential for profit is much higher with what I suggest here than backing short horses.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-22, 03:00 PM
nemisis,

Posting a ticket - the winning one of 100's - would be very misleading.

You are a bit out fo your depth.

My posts are greatly simplified compared to what I actually do. Method here is for the average joe bloe to try  with few tickets rather than the ones already using software to do 100's of tickets per race so that weighting etc can be looked after.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Feb-22, 03:22 PM
Lay off this "out of my depth" fours.
You did look a bit "punt drunk" on Saturday .
All you displayed  was that anyone following you would have sustained some fairly heavy losses.....seems to be a fairly normal pattern!
The days of me spending a lot of time studying form are long gone but I can still find a winner.
I do Sydney and Melbourne only and a bit of Honkers.....I certainly know where not to go.

I did make a little case for Russian Emperor yesterday......$101 and $26 and all he needed was a bit more pace on!
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-22, 03:44 PM
nemisis,

Suggest you re read the threads - 18 tips and a $14 place getter and a fourth ff return does not mean heavy losses.

Suggested other ways to bet on them showed POT exceeding 200% on the day. Merely given for people to consider with their own betting.

Fours
ps nothing at all from the lurkers so thats it for me. Lurkers contributing nothing only have themselves to blame.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-22, 08:15 PM


........ merciful thanks

                                        ... so thats it for me.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-23, 01:32 PM
That amounts to your usual contribution around here, you mug  :lol:
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-23, 07:50 PM


........so usual , so true ------------- get on the 80/1s bfore the price is taken  ----- take the easy money!
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: usernametaken2 on 2021-Feb-24, 11:49 AM
Sorry to see this thread fall by the wayside Fours, and I do hope you reconsider.
As I had nothing of value to add I have refrained from commenting, but was really enjoying following how the suggested bets were going, not betting on them though.
Always nice to be shown a new way of attacking the punt so many thanks for that.
Pity it won't continue, but no matter, life goes on. :)
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-24, 04:20 PM
usernametaken2,

I have provided enough for you to do it yourself if interested.

Say you made a case for either White Hawk or Sh'bourne Renegade ( both 80/1 or more ) in the Launceston Cup then I would ask you to consider this given their place dividends of $17.10 and $18.10 which are impressive but not the best you could do in fact.

A quinella standout on Sh'bourne Renegade from 10 others returns $58.53 per $ invested or altered to 3 place equivalent is $39.01 much better than a mere place bet.

If we look at White Hawke 3rd then a a $1 trifecta being 10picks/11picks/white hawk/ for $1 returns 373.99 per $ and dividing by 3 to properly compare with the place div is still $124.66.

I dont mind providing ideas for the forum like this but I leave you some work to do if you are not lazy. You will have to look at weighting in the long term as it could have been the short favs dramatically reducing returns compared to the place. But which is better in which circumstances you will only know after quite a bit of work.

What I dont do is help the bone lazy types.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-24, 04:39 PM
From the other thread, 4s.

I was on the leader, White Hawk, that got nabbed @$100. I thought it held on but ran 3rd😱

However, It shows how a smart punter can win

Sadly in my case I was on the 2 favourites to win the F4s as my main bet with the roughies to run places.
Had a small bet on White HawK to win as a throw at the stumps saver
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-24, 04:45 PM
Wily,

Now you know you can take value savers for just $1

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-24, 04:50 PM
$1 still would not have got me the F4 but I agree with you that they are well worth taking
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-24, 04:59 PM
You needed $11 bucks to rove your 100/1 pop with the fav for a first four.

Much less if only covering 3rd or 4th for the roughy.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-24, 08:11 PM


................. the master-in-lunacy is monitoring this nonsense ............ pleading guilty in due course will only be the start of it
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: usernametaken2 on 2021-Feb-25, 04:56 PM
Yep, I understand totally. Many thanks anyhow Fours.
It has given me something to pursue, even if only on paper for a while.
I try to ignore the comments from the poster above.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-25, 07:52 PM


.................. no each-way betting on this nonsense


                          It has given me something to pursue, even if only on paper for a while.

How about for 'never'?

Corporate bookmakers may sensibly be sponsoring and/or encouraging this tripe.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-25, 08:01 PM
IDIOT again,

I dont bet with corporates.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-26, 07:49 PM


In a kkk court .... I  would like to plead 'guilty'
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-26, 11:20 PM
Anything you plead would be ignored on the basis of insanity.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-27, 09:02 AM
Fours, Not quite in the $80 bracket But there’s some very nice roughies in the quaddy today :whistle:
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-27, 03:20 PM
Well, wouldn’t that rot your socks
Had a F4 on the race and had the 4 placegetters.😱

Sadly, not to win :shutup:

47k in nsw
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-27, 03:22 PM
Wily

Its a skill to master. Wont be mastered over night.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-27, 03:52 PM
not sure if “mastering” is the terminology
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-27, 04:15 PM
Surely, you’ve got a slice of that 4s given we liked vengelic :thumbsup:
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-27, 05:34 PM
Wily,

Several approaches of mine got that one.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Feb-27, 07:28 PM



Several approaches of mine got that one.


.................but not 'me' .................. today was the day of all days ................ no one got anything
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Feb-27, 07:58 PM
Wily,

Several approaches of mine got that one.

Fours


Well done mate
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-28, 09:58 AM
Food for thought,

I did not get the $974,375.90 first four result in MR7 yesterday. I did not have a bet in that race.

However the use of permutations could see some one getting it for around an outlay of $60.00 for 1% of the div. I am only pointing the way - the reader will have to work out how that was done - I am merely saying it is possible. Something for the biggest jackpot pools only as you would show a loss otherwise. Step 1 of the permutations I will give and that is that fav is involved in the result. The MC is a similar race to consider whereas day to day racing certainly is not.

I offer this only for people to consider if they would like the thought of a chance of a big collect. Again it wont help the bone lazy. The $60 is way way more than you need if you have the right roughy already. Lets assume you dont though here and have to cover a range of scenarios.

Fours
ps for those that the amount is too high to consider you can drastically reduce your outlay for it but you reduce your chances at the same time - I would not go below $20 - buy dinner instead. You have a better chance of a big collect here than the quaddies on these days.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Feb-28, 05:02 PM
Hong Kong,

Shinn still bring ing the profits.

On your own now.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Mar-03, 01:06 PM
Not 80/1 but throwing a few $$ e/w at Shangani Patrol in Syd r n 12

Up to his preferred distance range, goes well at the track, back on top of the ground & will get a soft lead. Jock has only had one ride on the horse previous, winning at this track in similar class & distance race.

 :x:
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: nemisis on 2021-Mar-03, 04:04 PM
Excellent stuff Gintara   emthup

I'm not betting anywhere today but would have only considered him on a wet track.
You must have got  off your chair with a 100 metres to go.  :biggrin:

Never forget his sire, Helenus.....will swear that he knew exactly where the finish line was in the Vic Derby.....absolutely stretched his head right out to win by a whisker.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Mar-03, 04:29 PM
Well Done indeed Gintara,

The suggested frst four betting approach would have snared the ff for you if played for 2nd spot due to Berry being the c selection.

Fours
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Gintara on 2021-Mar-03, 05:42 PM
Nem I had staked him 1 / 3 so still a nice collect but the wife did look at me a little perplexed as I wasn't paying attention to what she was saying and started to carry on around the 50m mark.

Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Mar-03, 07:43 PM
Great work Gin   emthup
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Mar-03, 10:41 PM
cough cough,

Did someone mention to back Shinn at Hong Kong....... 4/4 all at odds so far.

Foutrs
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: carey on 2021-Mar-05, 05:40 PM
nemisis,

You have to take your win bet mentality off to understand the approach.

Fourth is perfectly fine to make money as per Shinn's $218.00 fourth. Can be many many lemgths behind the best 3 horses in the race and the money paid buys the same thing as the 10 length winner at $1.50.

Fours
ps drunken sailor - again you have it wrong - I am merely offering a variety of approaches for people to consider. No one method is the best approach for all circumsatnces. My own betting is different to anything offered here. jfc is not totally stupid - you dont give away the gold ..... but I dont mind offering crumbs. My crumbs may welle xceed what others consider gold - its all relative.

i could not help but giggle with that.
i had to show my wife.....would you like to know what she said?
bearing in mind i have never mentioned you previously,  and said nothing except....'"read this and tell me what you think love."
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Mar-05, 07:11 PM
carey,

It's all relative.

Fours
ps - see anyone else offering pre race tips >80/1 and profitable ways to bet them?
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Peter Mair on 2021-Mar-05, 07:56 PM


................. it is a reasonable bet that the Master in Lunacy is monitoring this 'discussion' .. wills will be contested.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: carey on 2021-Mar-06, 03:57 AM
carey,

It's all relative.

Fours
ps - see anyone else offering pre race tips >80/1 and profitable ways to bet them?

i would refrain from commenting on what 'tips' you posted....but as you mentioned it......you have thrown up a tiny few horses and claimed it makes money.
if it did i have no idea, nor care, but i, or anybody else could probably get lucky too with such a tiny subset.
it is absolutely meaningless.

perhaps your 'gold' would be crumbs to some other person that is not so self enamoured!
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: Maximus on 2021-Mar-06, 06:14 AM
i would refrain from commenting on what 'tips' you posted....but as you mentioned it......you have thrown up a tiny few horses and claimed it makes money.
if it did i have no idea, nor care, but i, or anybody else could probably get lucky too with such a tiny subset.
it is absolutely meaningless.


100% correct carey - everybody on here would be backing winners at times, but it seems a small subset have a pathological need to broadcast it to the world when they do. I find it funny - and totally meaningless.   
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Mar-06, 08:15 AM
carey,

You confuse a plain statement of facts with arrogance. Your problem rather than mine.

As for your wife..... she married you - all I need to know.

The thread was to provide others a with a way to possibly profit from their own selections - not a PhD thesis.... A pity you could not work that out. Maximus I can totally refrain from creating such threads - I lose nothing at all but I suggest this site would be much the poorer for it.

The thread did disclose how $18 place dividends can in fact be made into returns >$100.00 per dollar invested - this is with out merit Maximus? Maximus why not do a better job than me and create similar but better threads??? Happy to be bettered by either you or carey and I am serious about that.

Fours
ps carey suggest you leave the drink alone and maybe one day you will get over your ego problem.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: wily ole dog on 2021-Mar-06, 08:48 AM
I must confess to finding it a bit odd that fours puts himself out there with a betting strategy  , on a discussion forum no less , and is set upon for doing so.
Isn’t the idea to counter his views, or agree with them, by providing evidence or at least some thought process via discussion ?
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: carey on 2021-Mar-06, 09:23 AM
carey,

You confuse a plain statement of facts with arrogance. Your problem rather than mine.

As for your wife..... she married you - all I need to know.

The thread was to provide others a with a way to possibly profit from their own selections - not a PhD thesis.... A pity you could not work that out. Maximus I can totally refrain from creating such threads - I lose nothing at all but I suggest this site would be much the poorer for it.

The thread did disclose how $18 place dividends can in fact be made into returns >$100.00 per dollar invested - this is with out merit Maximus? Maximus why not do a better job than me and create similar but better threads??? Happy to be bettered by either you or carey and I am serious about that.

Fours
ps carey suggest you leave the drink alone and maybe one day you will get over your ego problem.

i think you are confusing the names 'carey' and 'terry'
they are not the same person.
anyway, it matters not how gigantic my ego, compared to yours, it is minuscule.
Title: $80 minimum - can you make money on them?
Post by: fours on 2021-Mar-06, 09:39 AM
carey,

Given that I dont drink that leaves references to your wife....... Maybe she can clear up the confusion.... has she finally confessed?

Fours