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Deluge forecast for Sydney before Saturday: when will the Slipper be run? - Racing Talk - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Deluge forecast for Sydney before Saturday: when will the Slipper be run?  (Read 2536 times)

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Offline Peter Mair

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O.P. « 2021-Mar-17, 06:26 PM »

Deluge forecast for Sydney before Saturday: when will the Slipper be run?

Not much point doing the form for Satutrday if, as forecast, some 200mm (8 inches) of rain will be swamping Sydney on or before Saturday.

...............lest we forget: Phelan Ready  --- Career 59𣯘7  Prize Money $3,772,350

[.....as an aside .......... there is not much on the forum about the 2021 Slipper ........... that's a problem a great-architect may want to address]



Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-18, 05:55 AM Reply #1 »

When should the pin be pulled?


Sydney could experience up to 100 millimetres of rain on Saturday, as a coastal trough stops the sun from breaking through the clouds until next week. Showers are forecast to continue from Thursday into the weekend, the Bureau of Meteorology says.


The Slipper Day program is a G1 event ............... always among the best racing run globally ............ today is the day a decision should be made on a postponment to next Wednesday.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-18, 06:41 AM Reply #2 »

 The Golden Slipper is likely to be run on a soft track

........... a racing writer is either prescient,about next Wednesday, or not reading the weather forecast.

Offline Gintara

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« 2021-Mar-18, 10:13 AM Reply #3 »

When should the pin be pulled?


Sydney could experience up to 100 millimetres of rain on Saturday, as a coastal trough stops the sun from breaking through the clouds until next week. Showers are forecast to continue from Thursday into the weekend, the Bureau of Meteorology says.


The Slipper Day program is a G1 event ............... always among the best racing run globally ............ today is the day a decision should be made on a postponment to next Wednesday.

What about those with wet track horses  :what:

As long as it's safe for horse and rider, run them I say!

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Mar-18, 12:05 PM Reply #4 »
There is plenty to look forward to, even on a heavy track.
Avilius is unbeaten on heavy.
Rondinella has run some excellent races on a heavy tracks.....got turned sideways on the corner behind Melody Belle in Gr 1 Bonecrusher in NZ....pretty good last start.
Attention Run in the same race is really good 1st up on heavy ground.....both mares very good against the males.  emthup

I've had something on Khoekhoe at odds in the Guineas...much prefer his wet track breeding to Mo'unga
The Slipper will be tricky.....probably be obvious after the race......lots of 1st season sires.

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2021-Mar-18, 12:10 PM Reply #5 »
Given the forecast there must be a huge doubt on the meeting going ahead

Friday 19 March
SummaryMin 19Max 25Showers.Possible rainfall: 35 to 80 mmChance of any rain: 95%
Sydney area
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. The chance of a late thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.


Saturday 20 March
SummaryMin 19Max 25Rain.Possible rainfall: 60 to 100 mmChance of any rain: 90%
Sydney area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h turning easterly 25 to 40 km/h during the day.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-18, 04:00 PM Reply #6 »


The probabilities are for no racing in Sydney on Saturday

............ and that is the bet .............. the odds favour an early decision on a postponement ............. not scrambling on Saturday

                                                    .....administrators have respopnsibilities to exercise good judgment.

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Mar-18, 04:10 PM Reply #7 »
Best wait and see Peter.
If you listened to the Rosehill track manager this morning, he has a lot of confidence in the track......slow range at the moment.

Maybe try us giving a horse tip instead of a weather forecast.....these East coast lows are very hard to predict.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-18, 07:42 PM Reply #8 »


.............our most trusted news service says: 'well in excess of 100mm on Saturday in Sydney'


Waiting, ignoring the inevitable, limits the range of sensible responses later ......... odds-on bets (and longshots) should be well understood by racing administrators.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Mar-18, 07:46 PM Reply #9 »
Best wait and see Peter.
If you listened to the Rosehill track manager this morning, he has a lot of confidence in the track......slow range at the moment.

Maybe try us giving a horse tip instead of a weather forecast.....these East coast lows are very hard to predict.


Nem, all the grub is doing is attempting to create a narrative where he can be critical of the administration

Only a moron would call off the meeting by now as this failed ex administrator, who抯 pushing his own barrow, is claiming should happen

Offline Jeunes

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« 2021-Mar-19, 05:50 AM Reply #10 »
Regardless of what happens today and tomorrow, it is going to be a very heavy track. Yesterday抯 NRL game showed how much rain was falling and it was a fair bit.  If the forecast rain does come in today and tomorrow, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-19, 07:18 AM Reply #11 »


Postponement, or not,  is a commercial decision best made by the RNSW board


                                                                                       ................... what more is needed to be known?

......................predicted drenching rain is set to make the world抯 richest two-year-old race a lottery at Rosehill tomorrow. Racing NSW stewards will ......................probably not make a decision on whether to go ahead with the meeting until tomorrow morning .................... the forecast we are getting is that most of the rain will come during the meeting on Saturday.........


A reluctance to face the 'facts', and bite the bullet, puts everyone at a disadvantage -- needing to be ready to run, attend and bet --- when the prospects, at best,  are for reduced turnover and interest ahead of rough race outcomes that will have little if any relevance for an industry doggedly denying a fair go for all.

..........risking the worst-outcome, the meeting starting before being abandoned, flies in the face of commonsense.

RNSW should now have some grasp of the recurrent consequences of climate change at Easter in Sydney ............. ahead of swapping the carnival timing with RVL to Spring, RNSW might have a battle plan in place to manage the probabilities.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Mar-19, 07:38 AM Reply #12 »
Mair made this same prediction last autumn and got it horribly wrong. Doncaster day from memory and here he is again with the brain farting spam

Repeats the same nonsense regardless of his chosen topic despite being proven to be wrong.....constantly

I抦 starting to feel sorry for the unemployable former administrator

He抯 not well :tin:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-19, 09:32 AM Reply #13 »


.................. being 'right' or 'wrong' are just eventual outcomes in the face of risk


The important thing is to get the prior judgement as correct as the probabilities demand -- that is not being done.

The unstoppable rolling juggernaught of racing's 'entitlement' to brinksmanship is not consistent with that prior judgement being correct.

....everyone involved with skin in the game should be asking for more responsive administration.


Offline fours

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« 2021-Mar-19, 10:03 AM Reply #14 »
Peter,

You have proven conclusively that you have no idea how to judge risk.

The fact that you even look at, let alone monitor, tipsters says it all.

Leave the judgement of such matters to those that actually have some idea.

Fours

Offline Maximus

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« 2021-Mar-19, 12:30 PM Reply #15 »
...predicted drenching rain is set to make the world抯 richest two-year-old race a lottery at Rosehill tomorrow. Racing NSW stewards will ......................probably not make a decision on whether to go ahead with the meeting until tomorrow morning .................... the forecast we are getting is that most of the rain will come during the meeting on Saturday.........[/i]

A reluctance to face the 'facts', ......

A weather prediction isn't a fact.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Mar-19, 03:34 PM Reply #16 »

.................. being 'right' or 'wrong' are just eventual outcomes in the face of risk


The important thing is to get the prior judgement as correct as the probabilities demand -- that is not being done..


How would you know what抯 being done behind the scenes?

And you being right only occurs when you throw 5000 darts in hope.

So far , you抳e been exposing yourself to be a dunce

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2021-Mar-19, 04:25 PM Reply #17 »
The Bureau of Met figures when predicting rain need to be soberly interpreted.
The LOWER figure, is only a 50/50.
So ..in terms of reality..ignore bigger figure..
AND....the % is only a % chance of ANY rain..even one spit.
Read it like that and you are ok.
Saturday? 50/50 of 90mm.
That means we probably get 60 to 120 mm...
60mm for the day means about 30mm before the jump.
« Last Edit: 2021-Mar-19, 04:29 PM by Shogun Lodge »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Mar-19, 04:48 PM Reply #18 »
They predicted 100mm today, from memory.

So far Rosehill  has got 1.4mm, 24 degrees and wind

Only a moron would have called the meeting off yesterday

Offline sobig

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« 2021-Mar-19, 05:09 PM Reply #19 »
Latest from stewards

Racing NSW
@racing_nsw

32m
Rosehill rated a Heavy 9 following inspection by Stewards this afternoon. 90mm rainfall for week and 1.3mm today. Track has good base and grass cover. Further inspection to be conducted tomorrow at 6am

Have also said that if the amount of rain between now and midday tomorrow is as forecast, meeting should be OK to run

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-19, 05:33 PM Reply #20 »


........ hopefull brinksmanship is not considered leadership

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Mar-19, 06:20 PM Reply #21 »
So tell us scoop' whats the harm in waiting till tomorrow?

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2021-Mar-19, 07:47 PM Reply #22 »

Dismissed opportunity

The obvious opportunity, to respond sensibly to a track 'deluge', has passed ........ and that is the whole point of this thread.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-Mar-19, 07:58 PM Reply #23 »
What opportunity has been missed

Try answering the question this time

Offline Gintara

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« 2021-Mar-19, 10:30 PM Reply #24 »
They'll race, track is remarkably good.

What will call it off will be the jockeys and visibility or lack there of if it starts throwing it down.


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