I convert the ratings to a market . . I got the method from this site I think; so far from my idea
The assumption is that the 100 pointer is the best horse in the race, and thus should be the top weight
So equate 100 = 60kg and let 80 = 50kg . . . . making every rating point = 0.5kg . . So 88 would equate to 54kg etc
Compare these conversions to the handicap-weight to find the weight advantage/ disadvantage
Use Don Scotts table of 'advantages to odds' to arrive at your market . .
Any suggestions/ improvements welcome . .
Be careful what you wish for!
Scott's table of Advantages to Odds is such a hideous mathematical obscenity that it deserves to be a centrepiece at MONA.
Not that I've bothered perfecting this on horses or dogs, but the correct way is to historically transform a rating into a performance distribution.
Then use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probabilities for a race.
While my bet is Arthur won't suddenly abandon his way which has served him well for millennia, if anyone's interested in pursuing this then start up a new thread, and I'll respond when I'm able.