Melbourne Racing Selections - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK
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Racehorse TALK



Melbourne Racing Selections - Vic Gallops - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Melbourne Racing Selections  (Read 295499 times)

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Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Mar-08, 01:56 PM Reply #1750 »
The Victorian Handicapper rated Lunar Fox's Guineas win 100.....at his 13th start :what:....that's huge!
He rated 78 in the C.S.Hayes, 14 days earlier......one run just clearly belies the other??? :what:
Must be swapping the winkers for the blinkers.  :shrug:

Hope he doesn't suffer the same fate as the last horse I can remember with a massive handicap point's improvement.
Annus Mirabilis, a 6 yr old in the Aquanita colours, went from 72 to 100 in 4 months under S Webb :what:
R.I.P. Annus.....you poor fellow. :tears:

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-21, 05:58 PM Reply #1751 »
Interesting winner in the 2400 metre maiden today at Bendigo.
Beeston Lad, a rising 9 yr old won at his 9th race start......looked quite an impressive stayer on the 5 rated track.....had his 1st start April 2020
Went similar time to the BM 70 in the next race but looked better than them.

Funny thing the owner trainer didn't really want to play ball with the Racing.com interviewer, looking for the "good story".....neither did the jock  :lol:   :lol:
Anyway the horse cost $1000 and was given to the trainer 5 years ago....trainer said it took a long time to work the horse out.
Been a while since I've seen a Sakhee's Secret on the track....wonder what happened to him?
Anyway good story and well done to all concerned.  emthup

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-24, 05:56 PM Reply #1752 »
Another reminder about the foolishness of "form study" without knowing the surface the horses are going to race on.

Mr Exclusive was little chance on a Good 3 but the decent shower before the 8th gave him a big chance.
Courageous horse he is because he's won races before in exactly the same manner.....doesn't give in.

I'll give myself a rap because I saved my boost just in case a shower did come......sometimes it all works, I suppose!

Offline fours

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« 2021-Apr-24, 06:40 PM Reply #1753 »
nemisis,

New Zealand racing was certainly "challenging today" but whether that is due to betting jckeys giving the shorties a "run" or the vagaries of their tracks is another matter. I suspect both.

Fours

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Apr-26, 10:39 AM Reply #1754 »
Quite an incredible win by Amade at Flemington yesterday.
2nd run yesterday for 2 years but showed everyone what stamina and lung capacity is all about.
Looked to be the size of a tank but has an excellent record.....lots of synthetic racing????....not sure what that's all about!

Have to admit I'm tempted to break my no "future bet" rule for the Melbourne Cup.
Hopefully all concerned can keep him sound but I'm not sure he is the type of horse that RVL will want in their cup.
Anyway if RVL do classify him as a "soft boned" European, he did look comfortable on that surface yesterday and did win the Belmont Gold Cup on a firm 2 track in the USA.


Offline nemisis

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« 2021-May-03, 05:56 PM Reply #1755 »
Better get the pedigree pages up, there is a bit of heavy rain around Warrnambool.
Heavy tracks stats in your form guide are not always much of a guide at all.

Duke of Plumpton was beaten on a Flemington "heavy" but was excellent on a Trentham "heavy"
Warrnambool is certainly not going to be like Flemington  :no:

Funny how often the Australian speed influence when crossed with NZ mares can leave good wet trackers and some very dour stayers.
Lord Ballina was a classic but Proisir, Niagara and Swiss Ace have done ok on the NZ wet tracks.

If it's by Tavistock or Ocean Park I'll probably have something on it.
Hope all the jumpers get home safely and good punting everyone.....watch out for those crafty kiwis  :o

Offline fours

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« 2021-May-03, 06:14 PM Reply #1756 »
nemisis,

Dont forget Canford Cliffs progeny if they are up to the class.

Fours

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-May-03, 06:30 PM Reply #1757 »
I don't mind the Canford Cliffs on wet ground, fours.

I'm a bit surprised your favourite Galileo, Midterm is not going around in the Cup on Thursday.
If the rain does hit it would have been just the right ground for him.....he was pretty good last start.

Offline fours

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« 2021-May-03, 06:49 PM Reply #1758 »
nemisis,

You fail to understand my tiny bet on Midterm prepost was an insurane bet only and the 300/1 was okay IF Midterm improved lengths from last prep. The horse in fact went backwards at that time.

Dont confuse a tiny % of my overall bet as my main chance in a given race.

Some do far more sophisticated approaches then generally discusssed here.

Fours

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-May-03, 07:18 PM Reply #1759 »
I wasn't having a shot, fours.
I like him a bit myself on very wet ground......if the Warrnambool Cup was to become an absolute slog, he would have been right in it.
He has a ton of stamina.

There were a few horses I was hoping would turn up there.....some have.
« Last Edit: 2021-May-03, 07:20 PM by nemisis »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2021-May-03, 08:08 PM Reply #1760 »
Better get the pedigree pages up, there is a bit of heavy rain around Warrnambool.
Heavy tracks stats in your form guide are not always much of a guide at all.

Duke of Plumpton was beaten on a Flemington "heavy" but was excellent on a Trentham "heavy"
Warrnambool is certainly not going to be like Flemington  :no:

Funny how often the Australian speed influence when crossed with NZ mares can leave good wet trackers and some very dour stayers.
Lord Ballina was a classic but Proisir, Niagara and Swiss Ace have done ok on the NZ wet tracks.

If it's by Tavistock or Ocean Park I'll probably have something on it.
Hope all the jumpers get home safely and good punting everyone.....watch out for those crafty kiwis  :o


Duke of Plumpton in my Blackbook. Hope the tracks not too bad

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-May-22, 12:01 PM Reply #1761 »
Standoff was certainly one for the video watchers in the first at Flemington today.

3kg's below the minimum and $34 available last night with a boost.

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-May-25, 10:50 AM Reply #1762 »
Interesting maiden today in R2 at Stawell.
Cotton Eye Joe is an ex-kiwi now with the Wilde stable.
First start at Ellerslie ran 2nd, over 1400m, on a very heavy track in between a couple of handy wet trackers last July.
Big rain clouds hanging over Victoria this morning.

While the form guide says his last run was poor, he did lose a shoe, nail punctured his hoof and and was very lame afterwards.
You can see him become uncomfortable in the replay.
His trials times have always been close or equal to the open class horses.....could be worth a $ e/w. :shrug:....currently $9

His Sire, Prince Conti is an un-raced brother to Darci Brahma......now deceased.

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-May-29, 05:35 PM Reply #1763 »
After the above effort amounted to not much.....the race meeting was cancelled after the first.
The horse that beat Cotton Eye Joe by 3/4 length in his 1st race start had a run in Adelaide today.....Not Usual Glorious sat 3 wide in the BM 68 and won fairly easily @ $30.
10 starts for 4 wins  now for the son of Fiorente......was I on? ....no.....asleep at the wheel!
Cotton Eye Joe was 3/4 length behind him, with 4 lengths back to the rest on the heavy track at Ellerslie over 1400m.

Cotton Eye Joe is in the 3rd race at Ballarat  on a wet track tomorrow....$10.....have seen the race described as a weak maiden :what:
We tend to find out how weak they are some time later!

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Jun-02, 10:12 AM Reply #1764 »
Always fascinating for me checking out bloodlines.

Dashing Tycoon in the 5th race today runs over 2400 metres.
By Written Tycoon out of a Don't Say Halo mare would normally turn off any punter who does the staying bloodlines.
3 wins from 25 starts sounds fairly average, but it took connections 14 starts before he was tried as a get back stayer.
Looks to have plenty of stamina and it could possibly be from Battle Sign who sits on the 4th line on the dam's side.
Battle Sign......what a great name from the past.

If Sandown  plays fairly today it's hard not to see him right in the finish.....$12 available.

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Jun-03, 08:12 AM Reply #1765 »
While Dashing Tycoon may have looked extremely disappointing I'll be following up in his next couple of starts.
To my eye the horse resented being on the rail and only got going when the race had finished.

That's the thing about "head-gear".....Over The Sky may have looked to only have had a narrow victory in the last......but as the jockey said "he was only toying with them"
That horse only responded to the challenge when he caught sight of the horse on his outside.
He is one Tavistock I hope can remain sound on the Victorian city tracks.....he is a big boy.

Good to see Tarzino get a nice winner yesterday.....his first in this country I think.
Hopefully he can fill the big hole Tavistock's death caused.

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Jun-09, 03:12 PM Reply #1766 »
I'm Thunderstruck in the 3rd at Caulfield could be worth keeping an eye on.

Won a trial In NZ last July on a heavy11 .....looks like a very smart horse.

The son of Shocking is being backed like a good thing.
Horse racing can make you look silly at times but I'm Thunderstruck is indeed a good horse.
Only a watch for me today especially  the odds are this short.....but always satisfying when you can spot something about a horse off a trial in NZ on a heavy 11.

Certainly not your typical staying Shocking.....this fellow has speed and doesn't just need a wet track.


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